44
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Ukraine offensive in Russia expands beyond Kursk region, soldiers say
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- Title
- Ukraine says it has taken 100 more Russian soldiers in Kursk offensive
- Published
- Aug 15 2024
- Word count
- 574 words
From the article:
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Sounds very much like a quick probe to me to see how the enemy reacted to their invasion of Kursk. The fact that Russia has, in less than two weeks, now proper border defences makes me wonder what they've been given up for this. Their manpower, like Ukraine, was already strained. And their logistics is well, performing as usual.
They've continued their assault on Pokrovsk in the south too. So it doesn't seem like they're letting go of steam per se. We'll see, I guess.
ANALYSIS: Disarming Belarus: Lukashenko Attempts to Keep Power by Weapons Transfers to Russia (Kyiv Post)
Just tangentially related, but I didn't think it was worth its own post, so I'm posting it here.
Mmm, can't seem to find another source for your article. At the same time, there have been reports of North Korea supplying weapons to Russia in the past so I wouldn't be surprised by it.
Tangentially related to your tangentially related comment:
Belarus' Lukashenko urges Russia and Ukraine to end war as Kursk incursion continues (Reuters)
My guess is that Lukashenko is seeing the writing on the wall that this really poses a genuine risk of Putin's regime collapsing one way or another. And being
Putin's beta boy toyeffectively being a Russian buffer state with some autonomy, it would most likely be the end of his own regime one way or another.I can't see Ukraine wanting to dragging Belarus into this, or Belarus being dragged into this further.
Russian Personnel Losses Break 600,000 Mark, Says Ukraine (Kyiv Post)
Video shows Ukraine turning the tables on Russia by dropping glide bombs on its territory (Business Insider)
With this, the bridges being destroyed and more, I get the feeling we're going to see a second Kherson but.... on Russian rural areas? Just keep strangling the Russian logistics into a dilemma to weaken them. If Russia's initial counteroffensive in the area fail, I wouldn't rule out a big victory in eastern Ukraine in a similar fashion as Ukraine got massive territory back before Kherson got liberated.
Ukraine is really holding a bag of glass shards in front of itself, with some protection on their side, and Russia keeps punching. In the end, it seems like Russia's political reality just can't deal with dilemmas internally.
There's an area of several hundred square kilometres between the Ukrainian pocket in Kursk and the Seym river, where the Russians are now struggling to resupply their army after the three bridges across the river were destroyed. It probably won't be a lightning offensive like Kherson, since the Russian soldiers there don't have an easy escape route if they choose to retreat. Maybe the smartest thing would be to bomb all pontoon bridges the Russians build, and wait for the soldiers to run low on supplies.
Yeah, weirdly enough - I think it's in Ukraine's best interest not to attack it straight away, but more so to get defensible positions(or maybe even gains) elsewhere. Why bother striking them when it's more convenient to strangle them, and with it, a part of the Russian logistics? Unless of course I'm missing a part of the information I obviously do not have access too.
It's obviously not a military perspective, but as someone who plays Go(the boardgame, sometimes called Weiqi or Baduk), sometimes its better to not attack a weak point immediately because it's a wonderful headache for your opponent. Increasing the chance that they'll make a mistake. At least, on the outside, this looks oddly familiar to those kind of settings. Except for opportunity, the big strangling point in logistics.
And we all know by now how functional Russian military logistics is.
Ukraine Attacks Russian S-300 Missile Base, Launches 'Massive' Drone Strike on Moscow (Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty)
People in Murmansk are starting to ask about bomb shelters (The Barents Observer)
How can I see what Russia itself is reporting on this? It would be really interesting to see the spins they try.
I don't know, but the Institute for the Study of War's daily updates often report about what Russian milbloggers are saying.
Your best bet is following the big Russian mil-bloggers on Telegram or in various places they get reposted. They operate under the watchful eye of Russian MoD but generally are a little bit more inclined to say when shit is bad. They still lie all the time though. War Gonzo, two majors, rybar, Romanov and FighterBomber are some of the big ones. I’m on mobile or I’d try and dig up the links for you.