I'm glad the Conservatives didn't win, but I genuinely hope the Liberals take this setback to heart. Fuck them for not living up to their previous election promise of getting rid of...
I'm glad the Conservatives didn't win, but I genuinely hope the Liberals take this setback to heart. Fuck them for not living up to their previous election promise of getting rid of first-past-the-post. I was really hoping the previous Federal election would be the last time I needed to strategize about who I voted for, and the fact that I still had to this election was the major reason why I didn't vote for the Liberals this time 'round even though I really like my local Lib candidate and think the Liberals have otherwise done an okay job governing so far.
p.s. The disparity between the votes to seats is getting ridiculous because of this bullshit too. NDP and Green got fucked once again because of it:
Libs - 33.3% of votes, 46.4% of seats
Cons - 34.4% of votes, 35.7% of seats
Bloq - 7.7% of votes, 9.4% of seats
NDP - 15.9% of votes, 7.1% of seats
Green - 6.5% of votes, 0.8% of seats
p.p.s. Jagmeet Singh is awesome. I knew it was a long-shot, but I was really hoping he would be our new PM. :)
With a minority government relying on parties that are further to the left in order to form the new government, the Liberals will have to make concessions to the left in order to maintain power.
With a minority government relying on parties that are further to the left in order to form the new government, the Liberals will have to make concessions to the left in order to maintain power.
I don't follow Canadian politics but I am curious as to why replacing FPP voting is not deal breaker condition for the NDP to form a coalition government.
I don't follow Canadian politics but I am curious as to why replacing FPP voting is not deal breaker condition for the NDP to form a coalition government.
Well, we don't yet know how Jagmeet is going to react to potentially being the kingmaker here, or what he might demand of the Liberals in order for them to prevent a possible NDP/Bloq/Conservative...
Well, we don't yet know how Jagmeet is going to react to potentially being the kingmaker here, or what he might demand of the Liberals in order for them to prevent a possible NDP/Bloq/Conservative coalition government... so that may wind up being one of the NDPs demands of the Libs. However, I honestly don't see that happening, since it would likely cost the NDP absolutely all of their political capital to accomplish that (if it's even possible to form such a coalition in order to threaten that, or sway the Libs on the FPP issue because of how much they stand to lose).
And it certainly doesn't help that the Liberals know that the NDP are incredibly, incredibly unlikely to ever actually ally with Scheer and the Conservatives no matter what, since that would potentially be political suicide for the party to do that given its largely leftist and labour movement voter base... and so that ultimately reduces the leverage the NDP have over the Liberals in any negotiations over this issue to begin with.
Political capital is a funny thing, we speak of spending it like it is withdrawing from a bank account, but that's not really how it works. It's a much more elusive, subjective, and highly...
Political capital is a funny thing, we speak of spending it like it is withdrawing from a bank account, but that's not really how it works. It's a much more elusive, subjective, and highly context-based thing. I'm no expert on Canadian politics either, but I don't see why such a demand would leave the NDP in a weaker position politically--it is their raison d'etre after all, wouldn't they be risking just as much by not making the demand?
We speak of political capital as if it were a currency because it effectively is just that. It may not be tangible, and no singular factor determines its quantity or value, but it is a currency...
We speak of political capital as if it were a currency because it effectively is just that. It may not be tangible, and no singular factor determines its quantity or value, but it is a currency nonetheless; It has to be earned in various way, has limited supply, and it can be traded/spent in various ways as well.
I don't see why such a demand would leave the NDP in a weaker position politically
Neither of the two major parties stands to benefit in any way from getting rid of FPP, and in fact they both potentially risk losing quite a lot of their power if it happens. That means in order to convince either of them to back any "fairer" alternative voting system would require the NDP offering them a considerable amount of favors and legislative concessions elsewhere. And that does not come cheaply or consequence free, as depending on how far those favors/concessions force the NDP to go outside their party's core values and mandate, they could risk alienating their voter base and committing political suicide as a result.
E.g. If the Conservatives demanded that the NDP back them on eliminating the Carbon Tax in order for the Cons to back an alternative voting system, and the NDP take them up on that offer, it could anger the environmentalist wing of the NDP and push them towards abandoning the party in favor of the Greens.
All right, but that doesn't address my central point, which is that the getting rid of FPP is at the top of the NDP's list of legislative priorities and they campaigned on it. It is true that they...
All right, but that doesn't address my central point, which is that the getting rid of FPP is at the top of the NDP's list of legislative priorities and they campaigned on it. It is true that they might have to do some trading and concessions to get it, and that those trades and concessions might lower their support among various factions. However, not pressing hard for getting rid of FPP is not costless either given the party's focus on that issue. It is easy to imagine that they fail to press hard enough on the FPP issue and lose a great deal of support that way.
I maintain referring to political capital as a currency--or even referring to it as capital--is a misnomer and an oversimplification. Political "capital" is more basic than currency because it is another manifestation of what underlies currency--power and influence.
I'm really glad that the Conservatives did a lot worse than expected. They were running a truly dirty campaign and Scheer's constant deflections and sand-flinging was starting to paint a really...
I'm really glad that the Conservatives did a lot worse than expected. They were running a truly dirty campaign and Scheer's constant deflections and sand-flinging was starting to paint a really dark picture of his potential tenure as Prime Minister.
It really can't be ignored how much Doug Ford lost Ontario for the Conservatives, ha.
Personally, I see this as an absolute-win. With this, the Conservatives had less seats than the Liberals even though they should've potentially had more so they will most likely think a new system...
Personally, I see this as an absolute-win.
With this, the Conservatives had less seats than the Liberals even though they should've potentially had more so they will most likely think a new system would bring them more seats and they also had it in their platform from what I can tell.
Same for NDP, really.
The Liberal got more than they should've but they said they wanted to change the electoral system before and they also probably wouldn't want to oppose it to save face.
The Greens want and will propose a new electoral system soon according to their platform.
So really, the only person I see opposing this realistically is Bloq since they've had more seats than they should've and rely heavily on this to get power from Quebec.
So maybe this minority government is exactly what we need for the electoral system to finally change.
I like your optimism and genuinely hope that's how it plays out... but I suspect neither the Liberals or Conservatives are going to back an alternative voting systems any time soon, as they both...
I like your optimism and genuinely hope that's how it plays out... but I suspect neither the Liberals or Conservatives are going to back an alternative voting systems any time soon, as they both directly benefited from FPP this round (see above %s) and on-balance are usually the ones that do.
And even though the Conservatives got the shorter end of the stick this time than the Liberals, they have at times gotten the greater share (e.g. 2004), and I think their overall stance on the issue was made pretty clear in 2007 when both the Provincial and Federal Conservatives spent a metric shit ton of money on advertising in Ontario leading up to the electoral reform referendum here in opposition to the proposed mixed-member proportional system.
But who knows, things change and maybe I am just being overly cynical/pessimistic. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Here's to hoping you're right!
I'm not really mad about this election, I think. At least not in my area and at least not yet. The Green candidate won in my riding (which I know narrows down my location basically 100%) and I was...
I'm not really mad about this election, I think. At least not in my area and at least not yet. The Green candidate won in my riding (which I know narrows down my location basically 100%) and I was pleasantly surprised. I wish I could say I voted for her, but I'm an ABC voter and I thought the Liberal incumbent had a better chance. Thanks to the folks who weren't scared of voting for a smaller party. I'm happy to get a non-Liberal, non-Conservative and see how it fits.
The Greens and Conservatives were the ones knocking on doors and putting up signs and it showed at the polls. I bet the Green volunteer team is stoked. They worked hard. Too bad no further inroads, but they're really starting to form a bit more of a presence here in NB.
A bit of a coincidence, just earlier today I was using this exact example to argue that strategic voting makes FPTP a more "complicated" system than forms of PR like MMP or STV that are often...
I'm an ABC voter and I thought the Liberal incumbent had a better chance
A bit of a coincidence, just earlier today I was using this exact example to argue that strategic voting makes FPTP a more "complicated" system than forms of PR like MMP or STV that are often criticized for being too complex. The site votewell.ca (a popular "Anyone But Conservative" strategic voting site) said a strategic vote in your riding should be Liberal but on election night it ended up being a battle between the Greens and Conservatives. If more people had voted "correctly" then we'd have one more Conservative MP and the Greens wouldn't have any representation outside of Vancouver Island.
(We really, really need proportional representation.)
A nice visualization of the election results using equal sized ridings in a cartogram: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fd/Canadian_Federal_Election_Cartogram_2019.svg
I'm glad the Conservatives didn't win, but I genuinely hope the Liberals take this setback to heart. Fuck them for not living up to their previous election promise of getting rid of first-past-the-post. I was really hoping the previous Federal election would be the last time I needed to strategize about who I voted for, and the fact that I still had to this election was the major reason why I didn't vote for the Liberals this time 'round even though I really like my local Lib candidate and think the Liberals have otherwise done an okay job governing so far.
p.s. The disparity between the votes to seats is getting ridiculous because of this bullshit too. NDP and Green got fucked once again because of it:
Libs - 33.3% of votes, 46.4% of seats
Cons - 34.4% of votes, 35.7% of seats
Bloq - 7.7% of votes, 9.4% of seats
NDP - 15.9% of votes, 7.1% of seats
Green - 6.5% of votes, 0.8% of seats
p.p.s. Jagmeet Singh is awesome. I knew it was a long-shot, but I was really hoping he would be our new PM. :)
p.p.p.s. I'm also glad to see that Maxime Bernier (far-right populist asshole) lost his seat and his Nationalistic, anti-multiculturalism, "People's Party of Canada", got zero seats despite running a surprising number of candidates nationwide.
With a minority government relying on parties that are further to the left in order to form the new government, the Liberals will have to make concessions to the left in order to maintain power.
I don't follow Canadian politics but I am curious as to why replacing FPP voting is not deal breaker condition for the NDP to form a coalition government.
Well, we don't yet know how Jagmeet is going to react to potentially being the kingmaker here, or what he might demand of the Liberals in order for them to prevent a possible NDP/Bloq/Conservative coalition government... so that may wind up being one of the NDPs demands of the Libs. However, I honestly don't see that happening, since it would likely cost the NDP absolutely all of their political capital to accomplish that (if it's even possible to form such a coalition in order to threaten that, or sway the Libs on the FPP issue because of how much they stand to lose).
And it certainly doesn't help that the Liberals know that the NDP are incredibly, incredibly unlikely to ever actually ally with Scheer and the Conservatives no matter what, since that would potentially be political suicide for the party to do that given its largely leftist and labour movement voter base... and so that ultimately reduces the leverage the NDP have over the Liberals in any negotiations over this issue to begin with.
But who knows... weirder things have happened. :P
Political capital is a funny thing, we speak of spending it like it is withdrawing from a bank account, but that's not really how it works. It's a much more elusive, subjective, and highly context-based thing. I'm no expert on Canadian politics either, but I don't see why such a demand would leave the NDP in a weaker position politically--it is their raison d'etre after all, wouldn't they be risking just as much by not making the demand?
We speak of political capital as if it were a currency because it effectively is just that. It may not be tangible, and no singular factor determines its quantity or value, but it is a currency nonetheless; It has to be earned in various way, has limited supply, and it can be traded/spent in various ways as well.
Neither of the two major parties stands to benefit in any way from getting rid of FPP, and in fact they both potentially risk losing quite a lot of their power if it happens. That means in order to convince either of them to back any "fairer" alternative voting system would require the NDP offering them a considerable amount of favors and legislative concessions elsewhere. And that does not come cheaply or consequence free, as depending on how far those favors/concessions force the NDP to go outside their party's core values and mandate, they could risk alienating their voter base and committing political suicide as a result.
E.g. If the Conservatives demanded that the NDP back them on eliminating the Carbon Tax in order for the Cons to back an alternative voting system, and the NDP take them up on that offer, it could anger the environmentalist wing of the NDP and push them towards abandoning the party in favor of the Greens.
All right, but that doesn't address my central point, which is that the getting rid of FPP is at the top of the NDP's list of legislative priorities and they campaigned on it. It is true that they might have to do some trading and concessions to get it, and that those trades and concessions might lower their support among various factions. However, not pressing hard for getting rid of FPP is not costless either given the party's focus on that issue. It is easy to imagine that they fail to press hard enough on the FPP issue and lose a great deal of support that way.
I maintain referring to political capital as a currency--or even referring to it as capital--is a misnomer and an oversimplification. Political "capital" is more basic than currency because it is another manifestation of what underlies currency--power and influence.
I'm really glad that the Conservatives did a lot worse than expected. They were running a truly dirty campaign and Scheer's constant deflections and sand-flinging was starting to paint a really dark picture of his potential tenure as Prime Minister.
It really can't be ignored how much Doug Ford lost Ontario for the Conservatives, ha.
Personally, I see this as an absolute-win.
With this, the Conservatives had less seats than the Liberals even though they should've potentially had more so they will most likely think a new system would bring them more seats and they also had it in their platform from what I can tell.
Same for NDP, really.
The Liberal got more than they should've but they said they wanted to change the electoral system before and they also probably wouldn't want to oppose it to save face.
The Greens want and will propose a new electoral system soon according to their platform.
So really, the only person I see opposing this realistically is Bloq since they've had more seats than they should've and rely heavily on this to get power from Quebec.
So maybe this minority government is exactly what we need for the electoral system to finally change.
I like your optimism and genuinely hope that's how it plays out... but I suspect neither the Liberals or Conservatives are going to back an alternative voting systems any time soon, as they both directly benefited from FPP this round (see above %s) and on-balance are usually the ones that do.
And even though the Conservatives got the shorter end of the stick this time than the Liberals, they have at times gotten the greater share (e.g. 2004), and I think their overall stance on the issue was made pretty clear in 2007 when both the Provincial and Federal Conservatives spent a metric shit ton of money on advertising in Ontario leading up to the electoral reform referendum here in opposition to the proposed mixed-member proportional system.
But who knows, things change and maybe I am just being overly cynical/pessimistic. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Here's to hoping you're right!
I'm not really mad about this election, I think. At least not in my area and at least not yet. The Green candidate won in my riding (which I know narrows down my location basically 100%) and I was pleasantly surprised. I wish I could say I voted for her, but I'm an ABC voter and I thought the Liberal incumbent had a better chance. Thanks to the folks who weren't scared of voting for a smaller party. I'm happy to get a non-Liberal, non-Conservative and see how it fits.
The Greens and Conservatives were the ones knocking on doors and putting up signs and it showed at the polls. I bet the Green volunteer team is stoked. They worked hard. Too bad no further inroads, but they're really starting to form a bit more of a presence here in NB.
A bit of a coincidence, just earlier today I was using this exact example to argue that strategic voting makes FPTP a more "complicated" system than forms of PR like MMP or STV that are often criticized for being too complex. The site votewell.ca (a popular "Anyone But Conservative" strategic voting site) said a strategic vote in your riding should be Liberal but on election night it ended up being a battle between the Greens and Conservatives. If more people had voted "correctly" then we'd have one more Conservative MP and the Greens wouldn't have any representation outside of Vancouver Island.
(We really, really need proportional representation.)
A nice visualization of the election results using equal sized ridings in a cartogram: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/fd/Canadian_Federal_Election_Cartogram_2019.svg