Great post, very interesting read. I'm more and more convinced that there will be some very big shifts in the power balance of the world in not too many years/decades. China is too ruthless for...
Great post, very interesting read.
I'm more and more convinced that there will be some very big shifts in the power balance of the world in not too many years/decades. China is too ruthless for the US to compete on the world stage, as the article puts it: "live and let live."
Makes me think how shocked the western world was that not everyone in the whole wide world was appalled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I mean, the western world don't care about the Saudi invasion of Yemen, so why should Middle Eastern and African countries care about some European war?
China has it right with the Belt and Road Initiative, for example. I think the west is in for a rude awakening at some point in the not too distant future, about world powers and who has the actual reach and influence in the decades to come.
In the US, politics have been reduced to a bickering quagmire of name calling and showmanship, as though a pro-wrestling crowd took over the strategic planning exercises. We’re spending our focus...
In the US, politics have been reduced to a bickering quagmire of name calling and showmanship, as though a pro-wrestling crowd took over the strategic planning exercises. We’re spending our focus on banning drag shows while school and library systems fall into decay. Meanwhile, China is laying chess pieces toward its 2049 plan. 2049, still more than a quarter century away.
If the US were to leverage its strengths and advantages and actually be the great power it could be, then it might find a way to peacefully coexist with a powerful China. My fear is that the rude awakening you mention makes peaceful coexistence much less likely.
Chinese press often refers to the U.S. as “decadent”. That seems a lot more of an accurate observation than current US views of China.
I worry about what this could mean for life here in Korea. It has historically been a precarious location, but especially so now with the presence of so much US military.
My fear is that the rude awakening you mention makes peaceful coexistence much less likely.
I worry about what this could mean for life here in Korea. It has historically been a precarious location, but especially so now with the presence of so much US military.
Hot take time: Korea eventually reunifies under a Swiss model; neutral and armed to the teeth. Becomes useful for diplomacy, espionage, and for sanctions evasion.
Hot take time: Korea eventually reunifies under a Swiss model; neutral and armed to the teeth. Becomes useful for diplomacy, espionage, and for sanctions evasion.
Does the plan account for a population decline of roughly 100 million, and one of the oldest populations in the world? If not, I think China may be in for its own rude awakening soon.
Meanwhile, China is laying chess pieces toward its 2049 plan. 2049, still more than a quarter century away.
Does the plan account for a population decline of roughly 100 million, and one of the oldest populations in the world? If not, I think China may be in for its own rude awakening soon.
China still has hundreds of millions of people in deep poverty outside of the major cities. These folks could be effectively leveraged in military operations, raising their standard of living...
China still has hundreds of millions of people in deep poverty outside of the major cities. These folks could be effectively leveraged in military operations, raising their standard of living while providing much-needed personnel.
That's a really good and interesting question and I definitely don't know the answer. All I know is that there is a ton of published work on the subject; e.g. any search engine query for "china...
That's a really good and interesting question and I definitely don't know the answer. All I know is that there is a ton of published work on the subject; e.g. any search engine query for "china population decline" has a seemingly endless list of articles on the subject. I would be surprised if China were walking blindly into the problem, but I don't know what the plans are to work through it.
@nukeman's points about the number of people remaining in deep poverty is an important part of the equation too, and I would argue that's a double edged sword. They might be looked at as labor or military reserves, but they're also a large source of potential unrest if they start to feel that development is leaving them behind.
Great post, very interesting read.
I'm more and more convinced that there will be some very big shifts in the power balance of the world in not too many years/decades. China is too ruthless for the US to compete on the world stage, as the article puts it: "live and let live."
Makes me think how shocked the western world was that not everyone in the whole wide world was appalled by the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I mean, the western world don't care about the Saudi invasion of Yemen, so why should Middle Eastern and African countries care about some European war?
China has it right with the Belt and Road Initiative, for example. I think the west is in for a rude awakening at some point in the not too distant future, about world powers and who has the actual reach and influence in the decades to come.
In the US, politics have been reduced to a bickering quagmire of name calling and showmanship, as though a pro-wrestling crowd took over the strategic planning exercises. We’re spending our focus on banning drag shows while school and library systems fall into decay. Meanwhile, China is laying chess pieces toward its 2049 plan. 2049, still more than a quarter century away.
If the US were to leverage its strengths and advantages and actually be the great power it could be, then it might find a way to peacefully coexist with a powerful China. My fear is that the rude awakening you mention makes peaceful coexistence much less likely.
Chinese press often refers to the U.S. as “decadent”. That seems a lot more of an accurate observation than current US views of China.
I worry about what this could mean for life here in Korea. It has historically been a precarious location, but especially so now with the presence of so much US military.
Hot take time: Korea eventually reunifies under a Swiss model; neutral and armed to the teeth. Becomes useful for diplomacy, espionage, and for sanctions evasion.
Exactly the kind of hot take one would expect from someone by the name of nukeman :b
Could be worse. There’s a Reddit user named “Nuke’m Extra Crispy” who unironically wants a first strike against China. Even I think he’s nuts.
Does the plan account for a population decline of roughly 100 million, and one of the oldest populations in the world? If not, I think China may be in for its own rude awakening soon.
China still has hundreds of millions of people in deep poverty outside of the major cities. These folks could be effectively leveraged in military operations, raising their standard of living while providing much-needed personnel.
That's a really good and interesting question and I definitely don't know the answer. All I know is that there is a ton of published work on the subject; e.g. any search engine query for "china population decline" has a seemingly endless list of articles on the subject. I would be surprised if China were walking blindly into the problem, but I don't know what the plans are to work through it.
@nukeman's points about the number of people remaining in deep poverty is an important part of the equation too, and I would argue that's a double edged sword. They might be looked at as labor or military reserves, but they're also a large source of potential unrest if they start to feel that development is leaving them behind.