Not enough people are talking about why we have a declining birth rate. Admittedly this is just my experience as a younger millennial, but I see a few contributing factors that really add up:...
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Not enough people are talking about why we have a declining birth rate. Admittedly this is just my experience as a younger millennial, but I see a few contributing factors that really add up:
Average wages have not kept up with inflation, it's harder to justify having children and providing for them when the status quo gets worse.
House prices rising even faster than inflation, let alone wage growth. The stability of owning your roof goes a long way to giving people the mental space to consider having children.
Environmental concerns about the future of the planet and the living conditions our children will have to live in. Older generations (and us) have done a terrible job enacting meaningful climate policies, meaning we're already too late to prevent irreversible damage.
Children are a choice, and I don't blame anyone who looks at these (and other) modern problems and chooses not to have kids.
While no doubt the factors you've listed play a role, I think that the waning of the social expectation to have children is also an important aspect of declining birthrate. Speaking for myself, I...
While no doubt the factors you've listed play a role, I think that the waning of the social expectation to have children is also an important aspect of declining birthrate.
Speaking for myself, I just don't want kids and there isn't the societal pressure for me have them that my boomer-aged parents may have faced (inasmuch as my mother wants grandchildren, I think she has accepted she won't get them from me). The financial and environmental aspects aren't even part of the equation, I just don't want to be a father. I wonder how many other people are in the same boat.
This is probably true to some extent, but given that in aging populations like Japan and Korea the social pressure to have kids is still very strong, it's debatable how significant that is. We...
I think that the waning of the social expectation to have children is also an important aspect of declining birthrate.
This is probably true to some extent, but given that in aging populations like Japan and Korea the social pressure to have kids is still very strong, it's debatable how significant that is. We have three kids, and older people almost always refer to my wife as "a patriot" when they discover that fact about us. Next week will be a major holiday, and at our family gathering anyone who does not have kids or is not married will certainly get an earfull about it.
All of my Korean and Japanese friends who don't have kids say it is either for financial reasons, especially as a woman having to forfeit their career, or because they simply don't want to have their lifestyle changed (for example, if they have a decent job and live comfortably enough now. Having kids would put a major strain on that.). There is another opinion, which is also shared among parents, which is that these places are not a great place to be a kid, and by extension, hard places to be an adult.
J.D. Capelouto Aging population Japan's low birth Many of the world's leading economies China Balanced workforce
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J.D. Capelouto
Aging population
For the first time in Japan’s history, people aged 80 and older now make up more than 10% of the country’s population, according to data released by the government Sunday.
The country’s rapidly aging population risks transforming Japan’s economy, and the same demographic trend could soon play out in other highly developed nations.
Japan's low birth
Japan, whose population is considered "super-aged" and the oldest in the world, is also suffering from low birth rates. Providing financial support for families to have children is a top priority, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said in January, warning that Japan is “on the brink of not being able to maintain social functions.” Some analysts have proposed increasing immigration to bolster the country's working class population, but leaders appear hesitant to take those steps.
Many of the world's leading economies
It's not just Japan. Italy and Finland are just behind Japan in their share of elderly people. A recent New York Times report found that many of the world's leading economies — including much of Western Europe, China, and South Korea — will have old-age populations by 2050.
China
In China, one of several major Asian economies grappling with population decline, the city of Nantong offers a glimpse into the country's potential future. With 30% of the population over 60, it's China's oldest city. But many of the elderly residents still work in largely blue-collar fields. As a result, many of the city's schools have closed. The local pharmacies sell more adult diapers than children's diapers.
Balanced workforce
Meanwhile, much of South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and the Middle East will have more balanced workforces, leading to a possible reshaping of economic and geopolitical power.
In the past couple of years alone the top one percent bagged two thirds of the wealth output of the economy [1]. Am I the only one who is sick to hear that apparently the aging population is the...
In the past couple of years alone the top one percent bagged two thirds of the wealth output of the economy [1].
Am I the only one who is sick to hear that apparently the aging population is the problem, and the only solutions are that we all need to have more kids and our pension age needs to be increased further? Couldn‘t we instead just distribute the wealth properly and all start to work less, have less kids, enjoy ourselves, help the community with voluntary work and have a reasonably wealthy society across the globe or at least across the western world? — a society that is not based on constant economical growth at the cost of the well being of our planet and not the least our mental health. It‘s always the general population who has to safe society while the top of the top is scooping all the profits off while it‘s running well. Bailing out banks is a very similar thing, nearly a metaphor for the whole issue.
Is there a problem in my thinking, i.e. wouldn‘t it just work out for everyone if we would distribute the wealth through increased productivity fairly across the population?
For me it basically always comes back to this, but I‘m not sure if I have an error in my logic here. I don‘t want to provoke a political argument, more like an economical discussion about this matter.
I've been thinking about that recently. I live in Korea and all the news outlets seem to only talk about how we'll be doomed if we don't have more babies... but what if it's actually better to...
I've been thinking about that recently. I live in Korea and all the news outlets seem to only talk about how we'll be doomed if we don't have more babies... but what if it's actually better to reduce our population a bit. Having a lower supply of labor would make us more valuable and be able to command a higher wage. Also, I'm pretty sure that as Koreans we have the ability to automate a lot of basic things so humans can focus on other things. And funnily enough, I think that by having less babies and increasing our own standard of living, we would actually end having babies since the result of lower supply of labor = higher wages would mean that we would be comfortable financially enough to support children.
In my opinion, rich corporations are definitely influencing the media since they want to lower capital costs and continue their ever increasing profits.
Not enough people are talking about why we have a declining birth rate. Admittedly this is just my experience as a younger millennial, but I see a few contributing factors that really add up:
Average wages have not kept up with inflation, it's harder to justify having children and providing for them when the status quo gets worse.
House prices rising even faster than inflation, let alone wage growth. The stability of owning your roof goes a long way to giving people the mental space to consider having children.
Environmental concerns about the future of the planet and the living conditions our children will have to live in. Older generations (and us) have done a terrible job enacting meaningful climate policies, meaning we're already too late to prevent irreversible damage.
Children are a choice, and I don't blame anyone who looks at these (and other) modern problems and chooses not to have kids.
While no doubt the factors you've listed play a role, I think that the waning of the social expectation to have children is also an important aspect of declining birthrate.
Speaking for myself, I just don't want kids and there isn't the societal pressure for me have them that my boomer-aged parents may have faced (inasmuch as my mother wants grandchildren, I think she has accepted she won't get them from me). The financial and environmental aspects aren't even part of the equation, I just don't want to be a father. I wonder how many other people are in the same boat.
This is probably true to some extent, but given that in aging populations like Japan and Korea the social pressure to have kids is still very strong, it's debatable how significant that is. We have three kids, and older people almost always refer to my wife as "a patriot" when they discover that fact about us. Next week will be a major holiday, and at our family gathering anyone who does not have kids or is not married will certainly get an earfull about it.
All of my Korean and Japanese friends who don't have kids say it is either for financial reasons, especially as a woman having to forfeit their career, or because they simply don't want to have their lifestyle changed (for example, if they have a decent job and live comfortably enough now. Having kids would put a major strain on that.). There is another opinion, which is also shared among parents, which is that these places are not a great place to be a kid, and by extension, hard places to be an adult.
That's a very valid point, and I don't think any solution to the points I raised can convince someone like you to have a kid.
J.D. Capelouto
Aging population
Japan's low birth
Many of the world's leading economies
China
Balanced workforce
In the past couple of years alone the top one percent bagged two thirds of the wealth output of the economy [1].
For me it basically always comes back to this, but I‘m not sure if I have an error in my logic here. I don‘t want to provoke a political argument, more like an economical discussion about this matter.
[1] https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/richest-1-bag-nearly-twice-much-wealth-rest-world-put-together-over-past-two-years
I've been thinking about that recently. I live in Korea and all the news outlets seem to only talk about how we'll be doomed if we don't have more babies... but what if it's actually better to reduce our population a bit. Having a lower supply of labor would make us more valuable and be able to command a higher wage. Also, I'm pretty sure that as Koreans we have the ability to automate a lot of basic things so humans can focus on other things. And funnily enough, I think that by having less babies and increasing our own standard of living, we would actually end having babies since the result of lower supply of labor = higher wages would mean that we would be comfortable financially enough to support children.
In my opinion, rich corporations are definitely influencing the media since they want to lower capital costs and continue their ever increasing profits.
I agree. An economy based on unlimited population growth on a finite planet is untenable. Yet it is put forward as the only option.
Plus one for mentioning Oxfam! I respect and appreciate their international charitable work.
I have a hard time imagining the elderly as major drivers of the economy, or civic linchpins keeping the fabric of modern society together.