26 votes

America’s incarceration rate is about to fall off a cliff

8 comments

  1. [6]
    unkz
    Link
    Some uplifting news about US prisons and the trajectory of crime in America. One oddball notion in there is that going forward, there may be some benefit to private prisons in that the power of...

    Some uplifting news about US prisons and the trajectory of crime in America.

    One oddball notion in there is that going forward, there may be some benefit to private prisons in that the power of public sector unions make public prisons harder to close. I’m a bit skeptical of that claim and even more skeptical that any upsides could mitigate the conflict of interests that private prisons create though.

    In any case, less people in prison, especially as a result of low crime, is great news.

    10 votes
    1. [5]
      post_below
      Link Parent
      It's exciting to read about the decline, I had no idea it was dropping that fast. The incarceration rates and prison industry in the US are truly dystopian so it's great news. But then I got to...

      It's exciting to read about the decline, I had no idea it was dropping that fast. The incarceration rates and prison industry in the US are truly dystopian so it's great news.

      But then I got to the bit about private prisons that you mention:

      Though it will be nonintuitive to many reformers, particularly on the left, opposition to any such new facilities being private should be dropped.

      I would like to gently and respectfully suggest that the author fuck all the way off with that shit.

      Private prisons are about as close to evil as the human race gets. We know they cut costs at the expense of human rights, we've read about them getting caught bribing judges for more inmates, there is absolutely no possible upside that justifies their existence. And it's evil that never stops growing, the longer they exist the more influence they have on politics and law enforcement. And of course the people hit the hardest are the poor and marginalized. It's the worst kind of parasitic industry.

      And the argument is that it's harder to close public prisons and we need to close them faster because that will increase the drop in incarceration rates. Citation needed! How?

      Close the private prisons so they don't have motivation to push "tough on crime" legislation to increase profits, that will actually make a difference.

      If it takes longer to close public prisons because of unions, I see no problem with that, declining prison populations will do the job eventually.

      27 votes
      1. DefinitelyNotAFae
        Link Parent
        Fully agreed about private prisons, especially having worked for a private prison company. They're billions of dollars of lobbyists and they want contracts mandating they remain 95% (for example)...

        Fully agreed about private prisons, especially having worked for a private prison company. They're billions of dollars of lobbyists and they want contracts mandating they remain 95% (for example) full. They won't build a prison without that financial guarantee, they'll pay very low wages, be understaffed and create hugely unsafe environments leading to perpetual lockdowns; that itself means that folks come out of prison with even poorer social skills, less education and lacking work skills, all the possible rehabilitation angles. And it's not like the small town with the prison will be more inclined to let it close if it's private, the jobs they'll be fighting to keep will just be worse.

        8 votes
      2. [3]
        indirection
        Link Parent
        My main issue with private prisons is that they get paid for every prisoner, so they're incentivized to have more prisoners. If they were paid a fixed rate regardless of prison population, and...

        My main issue with private prisons is that they get paid for every prisoner, so they're incentivized to have more prisoners. If they were paid a fixed rate regardless of prison population, and given a bonus for every former prisoner who stays out of future prison for N years (maybe another if the prisoner has a job), they would be incentivized to have as many empty beds as possible, and lower recidivism.

        5 votes
        1. [2]
          DefinitelyNotAFae
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          They're also incentivized to cut corners in every area - staffing, food costs, pay to prisoners for the work they do, etc - it's the profit motive not only the method that is the problem. The Geo...

          They're also incentivized to cut corners in every area - staffing, food costs, pay to prisoners for the work they do, etc - it's the profit motive not only the method that is the problem.

          The Geo group and whatever the other big competitor has changed their name to recently see prisoners as profit the same way enslavers saw slaves as profit. It's a horrible industry run by horrible people and it cannot be solved by changing their fee structure.

          6 votes
          1. indirection
            Link Parent
            On second thought I think you're right. In theory we could regulate and incentivize to try and fix those things, but in practice it would be whack-a-mole, and less efficient than the government...

            On second thought I think you're right. In theory we could regulate and incentivize to try and fix those things, but in practice it would be whack-a-mole, and less efficient than the government running the entire prison themselves.

            1 vote
  2. Weldawadyathink
    Link
    Interesting article; I am glad the population is dropping. Nearly 10 years ago, I read Are Prisons Obsolete for a College English class that I dropped. I don't remember nearly anything about that...

    Interesting article; I am glad the population is dropping. Nearly 10 years ago, I read Are Prisons Obsolete for a College English class that I dropped. I don't remember nearly anything about that book, but it has played a pivotal role in what I think about prison and incarceration throughout the years. Might be worth a re-read.

    I think prison should be abolished almost completely. I often have to remind people that the USA never abolished slavery. It is still explicitly legal according to the constitution; it's just restricted to people who broke the law. Most of the time, people respond with indifference or "It doesn't matter because they are felons" or "But they are getting paid". I don't understand it. I think slavery is always bad. It shouldn't matter if your slaves are a specific race, height, or any other characteristic. But that is almost a side-issue from the prisons themselves.

    And with regard to private prisons, I think /u/post_below said it better than I could. Just because a quirk makes them better in this one circumstance, it does not mean they are better in all circumstances. A prison should never have a profit motive. Never. It doesn't matter where you fall on governments vs free market capitalism. Prison is not the place for the butterfingers of capitalism to have any influence at all.

    6 votes
  3. skybrian
    Link
    From the article: …

    From the article:

    Rapidly declining numbers of youth are committing crimes, getting arrested, and being incarcerated. This matters because young offenders are the raw material that feeds the prison system: As one generation ages out, another takes its place on the same horrid journey. The U.S. had an extremely high-crime generation followed by a lower-crime generation, meaning that the older population is not being replaced at an equal rate. The impact of this shift on the prison population began more than a decade ago but has been little noticed because it takes so long for the huge prison population of longer provenance to clear.

    But such a transformation is now well under way. One statistic vividly illustrates the change: In 2007, the imprisonment rate for 18- and 19-year-old men was more than five times that of men over the age of 64. But today, men in those normally crime-prone late-adolescent years are imprisoned at half the rate that senior citizens are today.

    As the snake digests the pig year after year, the American prison system is simply not going to have enough inmates to justify its continued size or staggering costs. Some states that are contemplating expanding their prison capacity will be wasting their money—their facilities will be overbuilt and underused. By 2035, the overall imprisonment rate could be as low as 200 per 100,000 people. States should instead be tearing down their most deteriorated and inhumane correctional facilities, confident that they will not need the space.

    If the turmoil of the early 2020s had led to an extended period of high crime and high punishment similar to what the U.S. experienced in the late 20th century, the COVID-era contraction of the prison population could have been immediately nullified and then some when, in the ensuing years, the prison pipeline was eventually replenished.

    But thankfully, the spike was just a spike, not a new equilibrium. Crime stopped rising sometime in 2022, and fell in 2023 and 2024. The prison population inched up 2 percent in 2022 and again in 2023, and it is possible that a similar rise took place in 2024, but even collectively, this is a fraction of the sudden population decline during the early pandemic. The COVID era ended with prison populations lower rather than higher: A recent Vera Institute report found that, on balance, from 2019 to the spring of 2024, the number of federal prisoners declined by 11 percent, and the number of state prisoners declined by 13 percent.

    2 votes