21
votes
Iran hits Gulf energy sites, escalating war, as US mulls sanctions rollback
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- Title
- Trump threatens to blow up major Iranian gas field as energy prices soar higher
- Published
- Mar 19 2026
- Word count
- 431 words
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I will add something that I heard in two parts from two different analysts:
The first said that this attack has impaired Qatar's LNG production (I believe it was the process of turning the gas into a liquid for transport) by 17% (a sizeable amount) and that this impairment will last 3-5 years (I presume the amount of time they were told it might take to fix).
The second said that LNG isn't a fungible resource the way that gasoline/diesel is and this is due to logistics and capacity (to ship as cargo), but also strategic stockpiling and production. The Middle East, particularly centered around the Strait of Hormuz, is not just the primary corridor for traffic, but also the world's primary producer (and the producer who will sell to almost anyone). Asia is more than just the primary buyer, they rely significantly on the LNG coming from the Middle East for their energy needs and they cannot quickly pivot away from it or find another source. There was one primary source and now it's output has been cut dramatically.
In the short-term we are already seeing the highly populated South Asia and Southeast Asia regions ration cooking fuel as well as some automotive fuels. I've read that coastal countries like Vietnam are not allowing pass-through sales to land-locked neighbors; the supply they buy they're keeping. I've read that people in Hong Kong are driving into mainland China to buy fuel due to cost and that will change political landscapes. A compounding effect will be when South Asia begins to see reduced fertilizer imports as this is the start of their import cycle for fertilizer.
While I would like to say something along the lines of 'I cannot believe the stupidity and contradiction in this'... well, I can. My depth of belief in the bumbling incompetence of this administration, and the incredible intertwining of stupidity and evil for the sake of evil, knows no limits that I can perceive.
"Let's attack Iran as a spur of the moment decision without putting everything in place first, without building a coalition first, without topping off our strategic national reserves of oil first, and then let's talk about lifting sanctions on Iranian oil to relieve oil prices while still attacking them because that makes so much sense"...
The film Idiocracy feels more and more like a documentary from the future.
Considering that from what I've been seeing, a lot of this oil and gas isn't destined for the US market and much of the market trading and pricing is speculative, I'm coming around to the idea that this war is calculated political theater. Bring the prices up before elections happen, then wind it down in a few months and because at least in the US market most of it was speculation, prices will come back down before the election. It's a way to manipulate the goldfish brained populace into feeling like things are better right before the election.
At this point it's well known, voters don't vote based on logic, they vote based on emotion. This is the basis of Trump's success. Voters also don't remember what they had for breakfast last week, let alone who started what war and for what reasons 7 months ago. The basis of success in elections at this point is making people feel good about your party in the weeks/days leading up to the elections, and feel fear of the other party. That's it. Logic does not matter. Facts do not matter. Feelings are what drives US elections.
If you see it this way, it's easy to see how actions can be done for political theater. Humans are very easy to understand on this level. Big blockbuster movies are dictated by formulas, a very carefully orchestrated ride that guides people through an emotional journey through the movie with precision on when to orchestrate certain events and in what order to generate the reactions and feelings. Not that it works to a 100% degree because people change as a result of seeing things many times over so the formulas have to adapt to chase those changes, and different people respond to different formulas, but it's not hard to see. It's not that much of a leap to say that an administration with absolutely no ethical boundaries, no qualms of lying, headed by a figure who grew his fame through entertainment, would be successful and willing to use such tactics.
They obviously don't care about Iran or what happens to Iran after, it does not matter if there are political consequences for these actions 5 years from now, they don't care about Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Europe, Asia in general, so the consequences to what happens outside the US matter very little.
Yeah, I feel like that is a big element here as well. Also a big helping of 'distract from the Epstein Files'.
There's a reason that the colloquial name for "Operation Epic Fury" is Operation Epstein Fury.
Perun pointed out, I think last week, that this was actually a campaign promise that went unfulfilled. US strategic reserves sat at about 60% of capacity in February 2026. Which is still a lot, but adding more would've improved the US consumer's confidence, would've been able to keep prices lower longer in the event of a significant catastrophe, and improved one piece of the national security metric.
On that note, with the suspension of the Jones Act to allow foreign-made ships to help cross-ship oil between different US ports, I worry that the US will be exchanging slightly lower fuel prices for US jobs. If you were a Panamanian-flagged vessel transporting oil between Venezuela and Cuba or between Venezuela and China, and you already have an experienced crew (and probably experience going through the Panama canal), are you going to keep doing those long, low-margin routes or are you going to jump into the US shipping market and slightly undercut all the companies who had previously been profiting from protectionist regulations?
I've been keeping up with that from Sal of the 'What's Going on With Shipping?' channel. Kind of a minor Pandora's Box there in that no one really knows what the 2nd and 3rd order repercussions will be from that change.
I am assuming the production of Liquified natural gas in the US is nowhere close to the production in this region. However, is there some sort of play here that the US is trying to swoop in and try to make some money in the reduced production?
I think it’s rather unlikely that the Trump administration expected the war to turn out the way it did.
I wouldn't attribute to malice and conspiracy what can be attributed to general fuckery and major dysfunction (but let's not pretend there's any general in charge).
I was wondering about the same implications and after a quick search the US exports 20% of its LNG. The US EIA has some stats here about LNG and Hydrocarbon Gas Liquid (HGL) exports vs imports. While the rationale for exporting LNG and HGL might change, and doesn't necessarily change the short-term demand for it domestically, if the US is capable and willing to continue exporting then presumably it is still willing to import from Canada to make up for that difference -- mirroring the way that Canadian petroleum products help power the US despite the US exporting some of its own crude and refined petroleum products. Canada makes up 52% of US oil imports for all oil product types, including heating oils, while the US exports about half of what it imports (either as a refined product or other type).
Thanks for the data! Let's hope this wasn't intentional.
The US is the world’s top LNG producer. It produces more than 5x what Qatar produces.
That being said, probably not some kind of play. US producers don’t particularly like expanding production due to geopolitical supply shortages - that’s a good way to go bankrupt when things reverse.
It’s possible, although given the U.S. natural gas prices haven’t increased as much as European and Asian LNG prices, I don’t think Trump and others want to risk seeing a spike in order to make a few bucks. If they do do it, I suspect they will only do it until August/September to make sure prices are lower for winter.