5 votes

My prediction about autonomous cars: Answers with Joe

4 comments

  1. [3]
    Eric_the_Cerise
    (edited )
    Link
    Point #0: Just a really nice, laid-back, informative youtuber; recent discovery of mine. If he's new to you, check out more of his stuff. Main Point: This video is a better-presented version of an...

    Point #0: Just a really nice, laid-back, informative youtuber; recent discovery of mine. If he's new to you, check out more of his stuff.

    Main Point: This video is a better-presented version of an argument I've been making to people for 5-6 years now.

    My Thesis in a Nutshell: The automotive industry is going to go mostly-autonomous and mostly-EV much sooner and much faster than most people believe (3-5 years), leading to huge economic & employment disruptions globally.

    Discuss ...

    My personal subquestion: Whether you agree or not, when (if ever) do you think the bottom will drop out on the resale value of manual-drive-only ICE cars? Put another way, if you buy a near-new ICE car today for, let's say, $20,000 ... 5 years from now, will it be worth $5,000, $500, or "pay someone to haul it away"?

    2 votes
    1. Loire
      Link Parent
      Five years ago people were saying truckers would all be unemployed by 2020. Obviously that prediction was wrong. What tech fans don't seem to understand is that just because the technology is good...

      My Thesis in a Nutshell: The automotive industry is going to go mostly-autonomous and mostly-EV much sooner and much faster than most people believe (3-5 years), leading to huge economic & employment disruptions globally.

      Five years ago people were saying truckers would all be unemployed by 2020.

      Obviously that prediction was wrong.

      What tech fans don't seem to understand is that just because the technology is good enough to work for a fancy presentation video doesn't mean its actually the fabled "five years away".

      Do you think the current generation of autonomous car can work in most of Canada where the roads are often completely covered in snow and "lanes" become wherever other vehicles have created tracks? When the signs are completely covered in wind blown sleet?

      Have we figured out the philosophical conundrum of who to sacrifice in an accident scenario?

      There are still a significant number of 30+ year old cars on the road in every city. How fast fo you think EV's will actually takeover if people are still driving their '92 Crown Victorias? And with that in mind how do we deal with the decades of mixed use on the roads?

      Just last night my Uber was a Model 3 and the driver was giving me the glowing review of the vehicle and its autonomous driving ability. As he was distracted talking it up the vehicle switched lanes and got onto the freeway going the wrong way taking us nearly ten minutes out of the way, while the onboard GPS was showing the correct route. Does that strike you as ready for launch?

      That's not to say EV's and autonomous vehicles aren't coming. They are. Just don't pretend like in five short years all ICE vehicles will be junkers and everyone will be napping suring their commutes.

      8 votes
    2. skybrian
      Link Parent
      Nobody knows the future. Some people pretend. Waymo has more experience than anyone and they seem to be moving rather slowly. It's unclear why that is or whether they will be able to overcome...

      Nobody knows the future. Some people pretend.

      Waymo has more experience than anyone and they seem to be moving rather slowly. It's unclear why that is or whether they will be able to overcome whatever problems they are having. It's not something we can predict based on general principles.

      3 votes
  2. Kuromantis
    Link
    I agree with this video, but like Loire said, the timeframes he gave are just not realistic. I agree with his prediction thatcby the mid-late 2020's electric cars will probably be cheaper to...

    I agree with this video, but like Loire said, the timeframes he gave are just not realistic. I agree with his prediction thatcby the mid-late 2020's electric cars will probably be cheaper to maintain and cost the same as regular cars in the US, Europe and other developed regions but that's about it. Automatic vehicles apparently will be released by most car companies in the next few years according to the statements he showed but pricetags are yet to be estimated,meaning that until then, all estimates of actual mainstream viability probably need a decade just as a margin of error. My estimate for when fully (level 4/5) automatic vehicles become less expensive than normal cars lies between 2030 and 2040 for this reason because we are just too early to make any predictions, not to mention how cars are physical innovations that still need to go through the supply chains of their manufacturers and shipped,along with the charging ports for these cars, meaning they will be cheapest in developed countries like the US, Europe, Japan and South Korea, where potential customers are highest, road and charger infrastructure is best and shipping is cheapest,while the rest of the world lags behind for a few decades longer, and these would only be sales figures for people buying cars, so anyone who bought a normal car before this probably won't buy a new one, meaning that many cars would still be gas driven for many decades after this point due to the sheer cost of buying a new car.

    2 votes