JamesTeaKirk's recent activity

  1. Comment on How come Australia suddenly has billions of dollars to pay for welfare? in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    I always find it interesting that the Republicans have been able to create this false understanding about Congress's ability to fund things while simultaneously cutting revenues at every chance...

    I always find it interesting that the Republicans have been able to create this false understanding about Congress's ability to fund things while simultaneously cutting revenues at every chance with little concern for "how they'll pay for it".

    2 votes
  2. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    Still don't understand where you're getting that from. From the article you posted:

    Still don't understand where you're getting that from. From the article you posted:

    Indeed, prior shutdowns haven’t had long-term electoral implications. Republicans recovered on the generic ballot by February 1996, just a month after the final shutdown of that period ended. And in the elections later that year, they held onto their majorities in both the House and Senate. Clinton, meanwhile, recovered his lost support by March 1996. He would go on to easily win reelection later in 1996.

    Basically, America put the same people who shut the government down back in office.

    The 2013 shutdown tells the same story. Despite losing the blame game, Republicans jumped to a lead on the generic ballot by late November 2013 — their first of the year. In the 2014 midterms, they expanded their majority in the House and won back the Senate. Meanwhile, Obama continued a long-term decline in his approval ratings in the months following the 2013 shutdown, but recovered to his pre-shutdown approval level by April 2014.

    1 vote
  3. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    I don't think I made a general statement about shutdowns. I asked why the Democrats don't employ shutdowns and you said that it is conventional wisdom that shutdowns are ineffective.

    I don't think I made a general statement about shutdowns. I asked why the Democrats don't employ shutdowns and you said that it is conventional wisdom that shutdowns are ineffective.

  4. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    I was referring to the polling data being examined in the article you linked. The article mentions that part of the challenge in examining the efficacy shutdowns is the lack of "polling with which...

    I was referring to the polling data being examined in the article you linked. The article mentions that part of the challenge in examining the efficacy shutdowns is the lack of "polling with which to examine the political effects of prior shutdowns."

  5. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    Okay. It just seems like you're using the term "conventional wisdom" to suggest that I'm an idiot (which is fine, I'd just prefer directness over passive aggressiveness). I asked a question, it...

    Okay. It just seems like you're using the term "conventional wisdom" to suggest that I'm an idiot (which is fine, I'd just prefer directness over passive aggressiveness). I asked a question, it was answered, and I conceded the point. It was not "conventional wisdom" to me.

    2 votes
  6. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    Yeah I suppose I'm on a bit of a tangent and I lost track of the OP. I was responding to NaraVara talking about the pattern of Democrats being blamed for things and I brought up the Iraq war. I...

    Yeah I suppose I'm on a bit of a tangent and I lost track of the OP. I was responding to NaraVara talking about the pattern of Democrats being blamed for things and I brought up the Iraq war.

    I think the stimulus bill is terrible but I agree with your point; It appears that the Democrats did what they could here.

    1 vote
  7. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    I think we disagree about what "conventional wisdom" means. It seems like you're trying to suggest that I'm ignoring something obvious but the article you linked explicitly says that there is not...

    This is well known enough to be conventional wisdom

    I think we disagree about what "conventional wisdom" means. It seems like you're trying to suggest that I'm ignoring something obvious but the article you linked explicitly says that there is not a lot of data to go on. Regardless it seems to be generally true so I concede the point about outright shutting the government down.

    3 votes
  8. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    I never said that I understand the process better than them. I don't think they want to end the war. That's the problem, they aren't acting as representatives for us. I'm not sure what the...

    I never said that I understand the process better than them. I don't think they want to end the war. That's the problem, they aren't acting as representatives for us. I'm not sure what the solution is in your book, but I'm not going to praise everything my party does just because it's convenient for them politically.

  9. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I would like to see the data that supports this. Where is that policy explicitly defined? How would that policy be changed?

    And what's more, whenever Republicans DO shut the government down, they end up losing that fight anyway. So it's not even an effective strategy globally, just locally for the handful of fringe nutcase districts that do it.

    I would like to see the data that supports this.

    They vote for the budget because it's still the policy of the United States government to continue prosecuting that war and the budget is just the funding to execute on that policy.

    Where is that policy explicitly defined? How would that policy be changed?

  10. Comment on The U.S. Senate coronavirus legislation is a sentence of unprecedented economic inequality and corporate control over our politics that will resonate for a generation in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    They aren't the same about everything, but they also refuse to leverage their positions in the way Republicans do, which makes them seem like they agree with Republicans. Why are Democrats...

    They aren't the same about everything, but they also refuse to leverage their positions in the way Republicans do, which makes them seem like they agree with Republicans. Why are Democrats continuing to vote for the budgets that are funding the Iraq war? If the Republicans had a serious moral problem with the budget, they would shut the government down for months.

    1 vote
  11. Comment on Bernie Sanders's campaign says he'll participate in an April debate if one is announced in ~news

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    I think the announcement that he's holding out until at least the debate possibly helps to quell some of the major division within the party. His dropping out (for now) is no longer an open...

    I think the announcement that he's holding out until at least the debate possibly helps to quell some of the major division within the party. His dropping out (for now) is no longer an open question, so maybe it will calm the debate around it. I'm not sure it will be effective but I can understand the motivation.

    1 vote
  12. Comment on When $2.2 trillion is not enough in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    We need to be very vigilant here. If the house passes a slightly different bill, there will be a congressional conference. Within these private meetings you can probably expect senators to be more...

    We need to be very vigilant here. If the house passes a slightly different bill, there will be a congressional conference. Within these private meetings you can probably expect senators to be more blatant about wanting to screw over unemployed people.

  13. Comment on When $2.2 trillion is not enough in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link
    I don't really understand how anyone could portray this as anything other than explicit supply side economics. Congress is arguing about how many billions they can spend and which families deserve...

    I don't really understand how anyone could portray this as anything other than explicit supply side economics. Congress is arguing about how many billions they can spend and which families deserve help. You've got Republicans freaking the fuck out because a small amount of unemployed workers might be able to get slightly more in unemployment than what they made at their job.

    Meanwhile, the Fed is providing 4 trillion+ in liquidity for businesses to take on debt. We're giving companies a ticket to take on more of the leverage that put them in this position, while billing it as charitable.

    While we're debating about means-testing families, you hear nothing from our leaders about why we need to bail out corporations that have had positive cash flow for years.

    "“There is a transmission channel from large corporations, to small- and medium-sized enterprises and to households” as each tries to extend temporary credit or keep paying staff, Hunter said, adding that the Fed programs will be vital.

    “What I am hearing business leaders say is, ‘We don’t want to shut out our customers. If they have a temporary decline in ability to pay, we want to extend credit to bridge them to the other side of the crisis as much as possible,” she said"
    source

    God forbid you just give people money.

    10 votes
  14. Comment on Is the human race ever going to desist from putting profit over people? in ~talk

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link
    I think so much of this has to do with accountability. Modern day corporations have little to no reason to not be sociopathic in their pursuit of growth. There's a clip going around where a young...

    I think so much of this has to do with accountability. Modern day corporations have little to no reason to not be sociopathic in their pursuit of growth. There's a clip going around where a young Michael Moore brings up this point to Milton Friedman. He points out a real world case where Ford made a calculation that led them to knowingly allow hundreds of people to die because the cost of allowing it was less than the cost of fixing a defect ($13 per car). Friedman's response is that the company should be punished by the courts to discourage them from doing this in the future.

    I'm unsure if Friedman was not understanding the point or if he was intentionally deflecting it. Ford baked the potential court fees into their calculation and figured it would be easier to deal with the deaths than to fix their car. They can do this because no one is personally accountable for what a corporation does.

    Here's the clip on YT

    5 votes
  15. Comment on White House, Senate agree to $2 trillion coronavirus rescue package in ~finance

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    They briefly mention the issue here. It seems that while fraud is probably more likely, it's still extremely rare and very difficult to get away with (Unless of course you're the secretary of...

    They briefly mention the issue here. It seems that while fraud is probably more likely, it's still extremely rare and very difficult to get away with (Unless of course you're the secretary of state and you feel like throwing ballots away but that's a whole separate issue :) ).

    https://electionlab.mit.edu/research/voting-mail-and-absentee-voting

    Another question surrounding VBM is whether it increases voter fraud. There are two major features of VBM that raise these concerns. First, the ballot is cast outside the public eye, and thus the opportunities for coercion and voter impersonation are greater. Second, the transmission path for VBM ballots is not as secure as traditional in-person ballots. These concerns relate both to ballots being intercepted and ballots being requested without the voter’s permission.

    As with all forms of voter fraud, documented instances of fraud related to VBM are rare. However, even many scholars who argue that fraud is generally rare agree that fraud with VBM voting seems to be more frequent than with in-person voting. Two of the best-known cases of voter fraud involving absentee voting occurred in 1997 in Georgia and Miami . More recently, a political campaign manager within North Carolina’s ninth Congressional district defrauded voters by collecting unfilled ballots and then filled in the rest of it to favor the campaign’s candidate, leading to a new election.

    3 votes
  16. Comment on Biden outperformed because he won voters who decide late in ~news

    JamesTeaKirk
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Here's a poll I understand that there is a large base of moderate Democrats who tend to determine the direction of the party (because young people don't vote). But I believe that base is comprised...

    Again, citation needed

    Here's a poll

    I totally get what you're saying, but I think you underestimate how many "moderate" democrats there are.

    I understand that there is a large base of moderate Democrats who tend to determine the direction of the party (because young people don't vote). But I believe that base is comprised of high-propensity voters that the data seems to show will probably vote for the nominee in the general regardless of who it is.

    1 vote
  17. Comment on Biden outperformed because he won voters who decide late in ~news

    JamesTeaKirk
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I believe we are misunderstanding each other because we fundamentally disagree about what is going to be most important factor in the general. I believe that enthusiastic turnout from the...

    I believe we are misunderstanding each other because we fundamentally disagree about what is going to be most important factor in the general. I believe that enthusiastic turnout from the Democratic base is the only way to defeat the enthusiastic turnout of the Trump base. There are two reasons why it makes the most sense to go with the more "radical" policies if you agree with this theory. The support for Bernie's policies dropping below 50% is occurring in bipartisan polls, which under my scenario where enthusiastic base turnout is key, is irrelevant. The other supporting factor is that almost all Democrats say in polling that defeating Trump is the most important factor in their vote, suggesting that they will vote for Sanders even if they're not crazy about his "radical" way of doing things.

    You also have to consider that a significant portion of Sanders supporters have not committed to voting for the nominee if it's not Sanders. It may not be reasonable, but it is reality that it will be more difficult to get Sanders supporters to vote for Biden in the general than it will be to get Biden supporters to vote for Sanders.

    It's also just a matter of principle for me. I think the Democratic party should be putting forward actual progressive policies again. If you're concerned about the cost of his plans then you probably don't understand how much wealth is stored in this country. These are very doable plans in their current form and they will surely be massively whittled down if he becomes president and passes them anyway.

    2 votes
  18. Comment on Biden outperformed because he won voters who decide late in ~news

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    I have heard this before and I feel badly about it. I'm making a point about tactics here. I'm not criticizing Biden's ability to participate in a genuine debate. (But thank you for bringing it up...

    I have heard this before and I feel badly about it. I'm making a point about tactics here. I'm not criticizing Biden's ability to participate in a genuine debate. (But thank you for bringing it up because I do think people should be aware of it)

    2 votes
  19. Comment on Biden outperformed because he won voters who decide late in ~news

    JamesTeaKirk
    Link Parent
    Biden has a history of verbal gaffes and sometimes when he's campaigning he says very strange things (like repeatedly lying about participating in sit-ins during the civil rights movement). In...

    Biden has a history of verbal gaffes and sometimes when he's campaigning he says very strange things (like repeatedly lying about participating in sit-ins during the civil rights movement). In recent years, the gaffes have seemed to increase in frequency possibly due to his age. I won't say it's necessarily a fair criticism of Biden, but I honestly think it's going to be painful to see him on the same stage as speedy Trump.

    3 votes