14 votes

Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - May 16-17

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Tags: russia, ukraine, recurring, military conflict, war, geopolitics, 2022 russian invasion of ukraine

This thread is posted Monday/Wednesday/Friday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.

If you'd like to help support Ukraine, please visit the official site at https://help.gov.ua/ - an official portal for those who want to provide humanitarian or financial assistance to people of Ukraine, businesses or the government at the times of resistance against the Russian aggression.

16 comments

  1. skybrian
    Link
    How is Ukraine's Air Force still operational? (Quora) Includes some pictures pointing out the features of the aircraft.

    How is Ukraine's Air Force still operational? (Quora)

    The Soviet designers who created most of Ukraine’s aircraft, expected that, in a conflict with the West, Western military planners would immediately target airfields (and they were right). Planning for this, designers strengthened the landing gear much more so that their Western counterparts. They also included mud guards to protect against dirt and debris from flying up.

    This means that the Mig-29 in particular, can use dirt and grass fields, and Ukraine has LOTS of areas just like that.

    Includes some pictures pointing out the features of the aircraft.

    4 votes
  2. [12]
    cfabbro
    (edited )
    Link
    From @francis_scarr (with @BBCMonitoring) on twitter: https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882 Whole video is worth a watch, IMO. And of note, this it the same defense...

    From @francis_scarr (with @BBCMonitoring) on twitter:

    https://twitter.com/francis_scarr/status/1526293852704890882

    In an extremely rare moment of candour on Russian state TV today, defence columnist Mikhail Khodaryonok gave a damning assessment of Russia's war in Ukraine and his country's international isolation. It's fairly long but worth your time so I've added subtitles.

    Whole video is worth a watch, IMO. And of note, this it the same defense columnist who a few days ago on state TV shot down talk of mass mobilization being a solution for Russia.

    3 votes
    1. [11]
      NoblePath
      Link Parent
      Wow. The interplay between that guy and gal was awkward but very refreshing. I think she has a future on fox news primetime. As an aside, I wonder will the west come to regret a million motivated,...

      Wow. The interplay between that guy and gal was awkward but very refreshing. I think she has a future on fox news primetime.

      As an aside, I wonder will the west come to regret a million motivated, disciplined, and well-armed ukrainians?

      1. [10]
        stu2b50
        Link Parent
        Lest they do what, invade Poland?

        As an aside, I wonder will the west come to regret a million motivated, disciplined, and well-armed ukrainians?

        Lest they do what, invade Poland?

        5 votes
        1. [7]
          JamesTeaKirk
          Link Parent
          The problem will not be the Ukrainian military, it will be one of the numerous Nazi-adjacent militia groups operating in and around the area. I don't know how you can't be concerned about this if...

          The problem will not be the Ukrainian military, it will be one of the numerous Nazi-adjacent militia groups operating in and around the area. I don't know how you can't be concerned about this if you're a U.S. citizen. We've done this routine before....

          2 votes
          1. [6]
            unknown user
            Link Parent
            Suppose we worry about this after the 2022 Germany in your analogy has been repelled from France.

            Suppose we worry about this after the 2022 Germany in your analogy has been repelled from France.

            7 votes
            1. [5]
              JamesTeaKirk
              Link Parent
              No thank you. I will continue to worry about both things simultaneously, as should everyone.

              No thank you. I will continue to worry about both things simultaneously, as should everyone.

              1 vote
              1. [4]
                unknown user
                Link Parent
                Tell me what's the worst-case scenario you're worried about here.

                Tell me what's the worst-case scenario you're worried about here.

                3 votes
                1. [3]
                  JamesTeaKirk
                  Link Parent
                  I don't wish to speculate on a social media forum. The concern is that an unprecedented amount of weaponry is being funneled into an unstable situation. There's the fact that Russia has nuclear...

                  I don't wish to speculate on a social media forum. The concern is that an unprecedented amount of weaponry is being funneled into an unstable situation. There's the fact that Russia has nuclear armaments to think about as well. All of this is occurring while the U.S. is rationing vaccines and on the brink of an economic crisis (as usual). The United States has a robust history of intentionally prolonging conflict for political and monetary reasons. That may not be the case here, but I certainly doubt the intentions of our leaders.

                  2 votes
                  1. [2]
                    unknown user
                    Link Parent
                    "Look, I'm just saying... Nazis" is an excellent way to spread fear, not an excellent way to progress a discussion. It doesn't help your case that the Biden administration specifically opposes...

                    "Look, I'm just saying... Nazis" is an excellent way to spread fear, not an excellent way to progress a discussion.

                    It doesn't help your case that the Biden administration specifically opposes supplying weapons that might prolong the conflict needlessly.

                    3 votes
                    1. JamesTeaKirk
                      Link Parent
                      If you want to pretend that there are not nazi militia groups in and around Ukraine, that's your issue. I'm not a politician, it's not my job to skirt around facts to make you feel nice. That...

                      If you want to pretend that there are not nazi militia groups in and around Ukraine, that's your issue. I'm not a politician, it's not my job to skirt around facts to make you feel nice. That article is a somewhat ridiculous response to the overall topic we're talking about. Biden allowed desperately-needed covid relief to sink so that he could instead sign a bill sending an obscene amount of weaponry to Ukraine. Again, I'm not really making a value judgement on sending the weapons, but I don't really understand what point you're making with "at least he didn't send guided missiles that they would use to bomb Russian territory". And yeah, that would literally mean nuclear war so lets rejoice that FOR NOW, they aren't doing that.

                      2 votes
        2. [2]
          NoblePath
          Link Parent
          I was voicing a gut reaction when I wrote that. Thinking now, there are precedents. The mujahadeen and saddam in the 80’s come to mind. It could also become a Palestine kind of situation, where a...

          I was voicing a gut reaction when I wrote that. Thinking now, there are precedents. The mujahadeen and saddam in the 80’s come to mind.

          It could also become a Palestine kind of situation, where a heavily armed and “modern” Israel encroaches and destabilizes its neighbors.

          Maybe also, if a ruthless dictator arises internally, a Pinochet kind of deal.

          I’m not sure Ukraine is a straight western ally. There is a lot of corruption cooking there.

          1 vote
          1. stu2b50
            Link Parent
            It's a very different situation from the middle east, however. Unlike there, where the West (mostly the US) has to do major power projection, Ukraine is quite literally surrounded on one side by...

            It's a very different situation from the middle east, however. Unlike there, where the West (mostly the US) has to do major power projection, Ukraine is quite literally surrounded on one side by Western allies - that was the point of NATO, after all. And on the other side, they are surrounded by Russia. I don't think an Israel situation is possible here. The West lets Israel be because the middle east is an area with few allies and few footholds for power projection. Not so in Europe.

            The highly motivated Ukrainian defenders will certainly be quite a bit less motivated on foreign territory than their own. And, to be honest, while performing admirably against Russia, I do not expect it, presumably with the supply of arms shut off, to scratch Western allied forces peacekeeping in bordering nations.

            Could a warlord rise and that warlord then partners with Russia? Sure, but that seems like we're getting ahead of ourselves considering they're being actively invaded by Russia at the moment with the express purpose of controlling the state.

            If a warlord rises and does not partner with Russia, would they bite the hand that feeds them? Unlikely, in this situation Russia is just too big of a threat. When you're sandwiched between NATO and Russia, and Russia is clearly hostile, then you gotta pick one or the other.

            3 votes
  3. cmccabe
    Link
    There is currently a lot of chatter on Reddit about a potential end to the seige of Azovstal. Here's one Twitter post about it: https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1526275795701964800

    There is currently a lot of chatter on Reddit about a potential end to the seige of Azovstal. Here's one Twitter post about it: https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1526275795701964800

    2 votes
  5. cfabbro
    Link
    Ukraine ends bloody battle for Mariupol; Azovstal fighters evacuated (WaPo)

    Ukraine ends bloody battle for Mariupol; Azovstal fighters evacuated (WaPo)

    Ukrainian fighters have ended their weeks-long defense of a besieged steel plant in the strategic port city of Mariupol, as hundreds of combatants — dozens of them seriously wounded — were evacuated from the complex Monday.

    The bombardment of the Azovstal plant appears to have persisted in recent days. Videos posted to Telegram by local officials over the weekend showed white, brightly burning munitions raining down on the plant. The type of munitions could not be independently verified, but a British military expert told Reuters it looked like an attack with phosphorus or incendiary weapons.

    Under Monday’s agreement, dozens of buses were seen leaving the plant in an evacuation coordinated with the help of the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross.

    Ukraine’s deputy defense minister, Anna Malyar, said 53 seriously wounded soldiers were taken to a hospital in Novoazovsk, a nearby town controlled by Russian-backed separatists. An additional 211 were transported to another Russian-aligned village, Olenivka, she said. Ukrainian officials said they are seeking to broker a prisoner swap to secure their release.

    “After their condition stabilizes, we will exchange them for Russian prisoners of war,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said Tuesday.

    While it was unclear how many were still inside Azovstal, Ukrainian presidential adviser Mykhailo Podolyak said negotiations on extracting the remaining troops were very difficult but ongoing. “There is definitely hope,” he said in a televised interview. Ukrainian authorities said last week that nearly 1,000 holdout fighters were in the plant.

    Moscow said the evacuation from the Mariupol facility followed an order from the Ukrainian military command for its troops to surrender.

    The Kremlin said Tuesday that the Ukrainian fighters who emerged would be treated in line with international law and that Russian President Vladimir Putin was involved in guaranteeing this. Yet the Russian State Duma, or lower house of parliament, wrote on Telegram that its speaker said Ukrainian nationalist “criminals” should not be exchanged and that a lawmaker had proposed banning a swap.

    Ukraine’s military leaders hailed the fighters in the city for keeping Russian forces at bay long enough to buy crucial time for troops fighting elsewhere, and Podolyak credited them with changing “the course of the war.” Russia has yet to make significant gains in eastern Ukraine, where it has concentrated its resources for weeks.

    “We got the critically needed time to build reserves, regroup forces and get help from partners,” Ukraine’s military command said in a Monday update.

    “Mariupol defenders are heroes of our time,” it said. “They are forever in history.”

    1 vote