Megathread for news/updates/discussion of Russian invasion of Ukraine - May 16-17
This thread is posted Monday/Wednesday/Friday - please try to post relevant content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Especially significant updates may warrant a separate topic, but most should be posted here.
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How is Ukraine's Air Force still operational? (Quora)
Includes some pictures pointing out the features of the aircraft.
From @francis_scarr (with @BBCMonitoring) on twitter:
Whole video is worth a watch, IMO. And of note, this it the same defense columnist who a few days ago on state TV shot down talk of mass mobilization being a solution for Russia.
Wow. The interplay between that guy and gal was awkward but very refreshing. I think she has a future on fox news primetime.
As an aside, I wonder will the west come to regret a million motivated, disciplined, and well-armed ukrainians?
Lest they do what, invade Poland?
The problem will not be the Ukrainian military, it will be one of the numerous Nazi-adjacent militia groups operating in and around the area. I don't know how you can't be concerned about this if you're a U.S. citizen. We've done this routine before....
Suppose we worry about this after the 2022 Germany in your analogy has been repelled from France.
No thank you. I will continue to worry about both things simultaneously, as should everyone.
Tell me what's the worst-case scenario you're worried about here.
I don't wish to speculate on a social media forum. The concern is that an unprecedented amount of weaponry is being funneled into an unstable situation. There's the fact that Russia has nuclear armaments to think about as well. All of this is occurring while the U.S. is rationing vaccines and on the brink of an economic crisis (as usual). The United States has a robust history of intentionally prolonging conflict for political and monetary reasons. That may not be the case here, but I certainly doubt the intentions of our leaders.
"Look, I'm just saying... Nazis" is an excellent way to spread fear, not an excellent way to progress a discussion.
It doesn't help your case that the Biden administration specifically opposes supplying weapons that might prolong the conflict needlessly.
If you want to pretend that there are not nazi militia groups in and around Ukraine, that's your issue. I'm not a politician, it's not my job to skirt around facts to make you feel nice. That article is a somewhat ridiculous response to the overall topic we're talking about. Biden allowed desperately-needed covid relief to sink so that he could instead sign a bill sending an obscene amount of weaponry to Ukraine. Again, I'm not really making a value judgement on sending the weapons, but I don't really understand what point you're making with "at least he didn't send guided missiles that they would use to bomb Russian territory". And yeah, that would literally mean nuclear war so lets rejoice that FOR NOW, they aren't doing that.
I was voicing a gut reaction when I wrote that. Thinking now, there are precedents. The mujahadeen and saddam in the 80’s come to mind.
It could also become a Palestine kind of situation, where a heavily armed and “modern” Israel encroaches and destabilizes its neighbors.
Maybe also, if a ruthless dictator arises internally, a Pinochet kind of deal.
I’m not sure Ukraine is a straight western ally. There is a lot of corruption cooking there.
It's a very different situation from the middle east, however. Unlike there, where the West (mostly the US) has to do major power projection, Ukraine is quite literally surrounded on one side by Western allies - that was the point of NATO, after all. And on the other side, they are surrounded by Russia. I don't think an Israel situation is possible here. The West lets Israel be because the middle east is an area with few allies and few footholds for power projection. Not so in Europe.
The highly motivated Ukrainian defenders will certainly be quite a bit less motivated on foreign territory than their own. And, to be honest, while performing admirably against Russia, I do not expect it, presumably with the supply of arms shut off, to scratch Western allied forces peacekeeping in bordering nations.
Could a warlord rise and that warlord then partners with Russia? Sure, but that seems like we're getting ahead of ourselves considering they're being actively invaded by Russia at the moment with the express purpose of controlling the state.
If a warlord rises and does not partner with Russia, would they bite the hand that feeds them? Unlikely, in this situation Russia is just too big of a threat. When you're sandwiched between NATO and Russia, and Russia is clearly hostile, then you gotta pick one or the other.
There is currently a lot of chatter on Reddit about a potential end to the seige of Azovstal. Here's one Twitter post about it: https://twitter.com/idreesali114/status/1526275795701964800
Vox: The staggering amount of US military aid to Ukraine, explained in one chart
Ukraine ends bloody battle for Mariupol; Azovstal fighters evacuated (WaPo)