LumaBop's recent activity
-
Comment on Keir Starmer announces resignation as leader of Labour Party in ~society
-
Comment on Keir Starmer announces resignation as leader of Labour Party in ~society
LumaBop Link ParentHow do you see Burnham avoiding the same decline in support Starmer has seen? Do you think he will manage to manage to deliver some significantly more impactful policies than we’ve seen in the...How do you see Burnham avoiding the same decline in support Starmer has seen? Do you think he will manage to manage to deliver some significantly more impactful policies than we’ve seen in the last two years, or will it be more about avoiding the same kind of scandals and image pitfalls that Starmer has fallen into?
-
Comment on Keir Starmer announces resignation as leader of Labour Party in ~society
LumaBop Link ParentThere is one timeline that many people see as likely: the new PM (almost certainly Burnham) is installed in about two months. The government/Labour enjoys a brief honeymoon period with the people...There is one timeline that many people see as likely: the new PM (almost certainly Burnham) is installed in about two months. The government/Labour enjoys a brief honeymoon period with the people and the press as people feel optimistic that the country might be turned around. However, continuing economic pressure and deep-set issues within the country mean that over the next ~2 years people do not feel a meaningful improvement in their lives and financial situations, as well as experiencing continuing cultural unrest despite the government touting progress on important economic and social issues. Support for Labour gradually wanes to levels similar to current by the time a general election rolls around in 2029, and Nigel Farage’s Reform Party (our MAGA equivalent) performs well (extremely hard to speculate whether it’s feasible for them to achieve a majority, but they could still wield a lot of power as a large minority party). If we get to that point, it’s fair to say Britain would be in for a similar prolonged spell of far-right agitation, cultural unrest, economic turmoil and broadly “bad situation” that we currently see in the US.
The reason a lot of people, myself included, see this timeline as realistic, is that despite the present government having made credible progress on a number of important issues in this country, it seems that the populace at large finds the pace of this change too slow; but it does not seem plausible that any other leader/government could bring about change much faster, because the country’s finances are so constrained due to a prolonged period of economic decline. Now, that is not to say that the current government has not made several, major mistakes. So it really depends on your view of just why the current government / Keir Starmer are so unpopular: if it is fundamentally due to the dire economic circumstances the country finds itself in, then this problem is not fixable in the short term, and the snake-oil salesmen of Reform can continue to have a field day proposing non-solutions that appeal to a certain part of the population but would leave the country worse off long term. However, if the more important factor in Starmer’s collapse in popularity is his numerous policy u-turns and scandals*, perhaps a different leader could fair better.
*but note that the UK news media is notoriously hostile to Labour, and it’s unclear the extent to which any leader could avoid the negative news vortex.
-
Comment on Keir Starmer announces resignation as leader of Labour Party in ~society
LumaBop LinkWell, this was heavily rumoured over the weekend, and it looks like he has effectively been forced out as all support from his MPs and cabinet has collapsed. For context, this means he will also...Well, this was heavily rumoured over the weekend, and it looks like he has effectively been forced out as all support from his MPs and cabinet has collapsed.
For context, this means he will also be stepping down as Prime Minister in due course (i.e. once the party has selected a replacement). It looks likely that there won't be a genuine contest to replace him from within Labour, instead it seems the party will allow Andy Burnham to run uncontested. In all likelihood Andy Burnham will be UK PM by September.
If you're unfamiliar with the UK system, there is no requirement for an election in the case that the PM stands down, as technically speaking they are elected by parliament, not the people directly. In practice this means that the largest party installs the PM, with Labour currently commanding a huge parliamentary majority. Therefore it is an internal Labour Party mechanism that will decide on the next leader and PM.
-
Keir Starmer announces resignation as leader of Labour Party
39 votes -
Comment on UK: Social media ban for under-16s to be introduced in 2027 in ~society
-
Comment on UK: Social media ban for under-16s to be introduced in 2027 in ~society
LumaBop Link@NaraVara mentioned this as well, it really is such a missed opportunity for several reasons. This was a huge chance to legislate against predatory, hyper-personalised content; algorithms designed...@NaraVara mentioned this as well, it really is such a missed opportunity for several reasons. This was a huge chance to legislate against predatory, hyper-personalised content; algorithms designed to maximise rage; addictive, infinite content feeds and more. Age gating does nothing to stop the way that social media companies prey upon the time, attention and emotions of adults. Worse, legislation which mandates these companies do better for all users could have made circumventing these restrictions much harder. One can only assume that it will become extremely common for under-16s to circumvent this ban.
And of course it fails to recognise the important educational content available on platforms like YouTube and Reddit in particular. Not to say that those platforms don’t have their dark sides, just that a blanket ban seems way too coarse here.
Rushed and poorly thought through. Isn’t that the way with this government though? Any good ideas take forever and get suffocated (assisted dying, nationalising public services, building housing), while poorly thought out bills get rushed through / have dramatic last minute u-turns (welfare cuts, winter fuel payments, Online Safety Act, social media ban).
-
Comment on UK: Social media ban for under-16s to be introduced in 2027 in ~society
LumaBop Link ParentA full list isn’t available yet, but considering that it will be an explicit list rather than “all platforms with X feature are banned”, I can’t imagine Tildes will be on the government’s radar.A full list isn’t available yet, but considering that it will be an explicit list rather than “all platforms with X feature are banned”, I can’t imagine Tildes will be on the government’s radar.
-
Comment on Smartphones arrived just before the US fertility rate plunged. One study says it’s a direct cause. in ~health
LumaBop Link ParentHard disagree. While we aren’t yet noticing signifiant consequences, we need to start addressing the issue very soon, which makes it a problem right now. This is like saying that a couple decades...It could be a future issue but it’s not currently
Hard disagree. While we aren’t yet noticing signifiant consequences, we need to start addressing the issue very soon, which makes it a problem right now. This is like saying that a couple decades ago when we knew about man-made climate change but were not yet experiencing widespread climate collapse (as we are today), that climate change was only a “future issue”. Note: I don’t mean to claim that climate change and population decline are problems on the same scale, but both exhibit the effect of needing action before the consequences of the problem really hit.
If we wait until population decline becomes a problem, we will be stuck with those problems for at least a full generation - even if the issue can be addressed immediately to start increasing birth rates / immigration rates, it will take time to see the effects of those.
I agree that “fertility rate” is an unclear term and “birth rate” would be less ambiguous, but for some reason the prior seems to be the standard term in the literature.
-
Comment on Smartphones arrived just before the US fertility rate plunged. One study says it’s a direct cause. in ~health
LumaBop Link ParentAgreed - it’s less about the smartphones themselves as opposed to people (mostly women) having far better access to the information they need to make informed decisions about their relationships...Agreed - it’s less about the smartphones themselves as opposed to people (mostly women) having far better access to the information they need to make informed decisions about their relationships and parenthood, as well as recent progress in giving them the tools they need to make those decisions (I.e. birth control).
The social impact of ubiquitous smartphone/internet access wasn’t visible in the late 00s and early 10s. We are only really beginning to grasp that reality now.
If we actually want to address the decline in fertility rates which is seen almost everywhere across the globe (but most markedly in developed economies) then we need to recognise the multi-faceted nature of this problem. We also really need to get rid of the very strange people who seem to think it’s in anyway acceptable to suggest that forcing people who don’t want children to have them is an approach we could even consider.
-
Comment on Smartphones arrived just before the US fertility rate plunged. One study says it’s a direct cause. in ~health
LumaBop Link ParentWhilst population decline is a very real issue, it’s quite perverse that the people who seem to be making the biggest deal about it seem to also be opposed to the most obvious solutions:...Whilst population decline is a very real issue, it’s quite perverse that the people who seem to be making the biggest deal about it seem to also be opposed to the most obvious solutions: encouraging immigration and making it easier for those who want to to raise children.
-
Comment on Does generative AI have a natural limit without a major innovation? in ~comp
LumaBop LinkIn the general case, it seems likely. However I think there are some domains where it’s possible LLMs/agents will be able to improve indefinitely. By the way, this is informed speculation, not an...In the general case, it seems likely. However I think there are some domains where it’s possible LLMs/agents will be able to improve indefinitely. By the way, this is informed speculation, not an evidence-backed claim (and in general I’m an LLM sceptic).
There are certain domains and types of problems where constructing a solution is hard, but verifying a solution to once found is relatively simple. To give a concrete example: solving integrals is hard in general, but verifying a solution involves a relatively easier differentiation process; contrast this with a problem such as finding the shortest tour of a large number of locations (e.g. ”find the shortest route, starting at Paris, which visits every European capital exactly once and returns to Paris”) - even if I told you a route, it’s not trivial to confirm that it is indeed the shortest.
For domains concerned with problems in the “hard to solve, easy to check” category, it seems at least in principle possible that, if agents are paired with a suitable “checking” (verification) tool, they could always have a good learning signal to continuously improve (since all agent output can be accurately labelled as “good” or “bad”). So, hypothetically, recursively training models on prior model output would allow continuous improvement in problem solving abilities. That’s the opposite of what it is understood happens in the general case where LLMs are trained on their own output, which is model collapse.
Certainly several sub-fields of maths and computer science are “hard to solve, easy to check”, so I wonder if LLM ability may not hit a ceiling in those domains.
-
Comment on GameHub for Mac is publicly available in ~games
LumaBop Link ParentWhat are the privacy concerns? Just general issues with giving third parties access to steam accounts?What are the privacy concerns? Just general issues with giving third parties access to steam accounts?
-
Comment on Tildes Survey #7: What is your gender identity? (Results) in ~talk
LumaBop Link ParentCan I ask, why is this? For transparency, I did not include cisgender in my response to this survey, although it would be correct to describe me as cisgender. I did so because the survey asked...I generally prefer it when cis people are self-aware enough to include "cis" as a descriptor.
Can I ask, why is this? For transparency, I did not include cisgender in my response to this survey, although it would be correct to describe me as cisgender. I did so because the survey asked about gender identity - cisgender does not form part of my gender identity. For me, the only use of cisgender is to contrast against transgender, but I don’t have any particular desire, as part of my identity, to draw a line between myself and a transgender person.
As an aside, my understanding of cisgender/transgender was that these are not gender identities, but rather words to describe how a person’s gender identity relates to their biological gender. However this thread has led me to question whether or not my understanding of this is correct.
-
Comment on Tildes Survey #6: Vote for the next four surveys we do! (Results) in ~talk
LumaBop Link ParentPlease add me to the notification list. Thank you!Please add me to the notification list. Thank you!
-
Comment on When did your preferred fighting game franchises peak? in ~games
LumaBop LinkMy favourite fighting game “series” is Rivals of Aether, which is a platform fighter (AKA Super Smash Bros-like game). IMO, Rivals 1 was peak, and Rivals 2 was/is comparatively less good. The...My favourite fighting game “series” is Rivals of Aether, which is a platform fighter (AKA Super Smash Bros-like game). IMO, Rivals 1 was peak, and Rivals 2 was/is comparatively less good.
The reason why I think the original Rivals of Aether was so good is that it had several limitations that in my opinion made it more interesting as a game. It lacked ledges and grabs (in general, though some moves acted as command grabs), and featured a parry system instead of a shield. The lack of shields made the game fast and aggressive in a way that I thought was really fun, and the lack of ledges actually made recovery/edge guarding much more interesting. It also had extremely fluid combos that I haven’t found in any other fighting game including its sequel.
By comparison, Rivals 2 is lacking in a few ways:
- the addition of certain mechanics, particularly shields, grabs and ledges, makes the game feel comparatively clunkier (IMO) but objectively speaking more similar to the SSB games
- the combo system is stiffer, more like SSB Melee
- the graphics are simply worse, in my opinion. I always thought the pixel art in Rivals 1 was one of its strengths, Rivals 2 has 3D models that look relatively plastic-y and have stiff animations, again my opinion
It’s also a shame that Rivals 2 didn’t manage to retain a good player base. One possible reason for this is that it launched as a fully featured competitive game, but without many important features for casual players (in particular no tutorial!) A lack of a large enough, healthy player base is terrible for a fighting game because if you are new to the game and you go online, you can basically only be matched with players who are much more skilled than you.
PS: sorry for going on a rant about a pretty niche platform fighter if you were only looking for discussion of regular fighting games.
-
Comment on Dual national Londoner stranded in Spain by new border rule in ~travel
LumaBop Link ParentAccording to the Home Office: I agree that from what I know they can’t ignore the fact that you are British if you tell them, but sounds like if you just pretend not to be British you can get away...The intention of the ETA scheme is not to penalise people who unwittingly travel without
the correct permission, or with a permission to which they are not legally entitled. It is
about securing the UK border. In terms of specific ‘penalties’ for British dual nationals, I am sure you are aware that s.24A (1) of the Immigration Act 1971 disapplies the offence of
obtaining an ETA by deception to British nationals.I agree that from what I know they can’t ignore the fact that you are British if you tell them, but sounds like if you just pretend not to be British you can get away with it.
Regarding the story you mentioned: the original article, and the other stories I’ve seen, are all about people being denied boarding their flights/travel, not denied at the border. It seems that it is explicitly policy that in any weird edge case, as long as you actually are a British citizen, you will be allowed through the border (probably with delays as they figure it out), the big issue is currently people being prevented from boarding their flights because the airlines believe they are not entitled to travel (and have been asked by the UK government to check this).
-
Comment on Dual national Londoner stranded in Spain by new border rule in ~travel
LumaBop Link ParentAlmost certainly because she declared it. Theoretically this shouldn’t happen as airlines should be checking ETAs before allowing passengers to board, but clearly enforcement varies. If the woman...Why would the airline know that she’s a British citizen?
Almost certainly because she declared it.
One of my friends flew to the UK and literally got to just before customs before realizing they didn’t have an ETA
Theoretically this shouldn’t happen as airlines should be checking ETAs before allowing passengers to board, but clearly enforcement varies.
If the woman in the article didn’t declare her British citizenship to her airline, in theory it should have checked that she had an ETA, and in theory she should not be able to obtain an ETA, but in my reply to @Greg I speculate that she might have been able to obtain an ETA depending on details of her situation which we don’t know.
-
Comment on Dual national Londoner stranded in Spain by new border rule in ~travel
LumaBop Link ParentThat’s fair! My approach has always been to pass through the border of either of my home countries using the local passport. So when travelling between the two I would carry both. Sounds like...That’s fair! My approach has always been to pass through the border of either of my home countries using the local passport. So when travelling between the two I would carry both. Sounds like maybe the US doesn’t like that for some reason?
It seems that the way this ought to be have been communicated is really when people are booking their flights. Since airlines ask for your nationalities, the UK government should have required them to display a notice to all people registering as dual nationals about the changes.
-
Comment on Dual national Londoner stranded in Spain by new border rule in ~travel
LumaBop (edited )Link ParentAFAIK, assuming she can indeed board the flight, this approach would work perfectly fine - indeed I understand that it is explicit border control policy to permit entry in this case. The issue is...It’d perhaps be a better idea for her to board the plane on her Spanish documents and then explain the situation at the UK border
AFAIK, assuming she can indeed board the flight, this approach would work perfectly fine - indeed I understand that it is explicit border control policy to permit entry in this case.
The issue is more likely that she will be denied boarding. The airline will ask for your travel documents, and if you’re travelling on a Spanish passport they will check if you have an ETA. The ETA is obtained from the UK Home Office. I don’t know the exact process, but I assume it involves them asking for your nationality. So your options would be:
a) declare British citizenship, in which case you will automatically be prevented from applying for an ETA.
b) don’t declare your British citizenship. One would guess that the Home Office might be able to automatically detect if this is wrong, but it would depend on what they know about you. Since the woman in the article doesn’t have a passport or (from the sounds of it) any formal proof of citizenship, it may well be that be that the Home Office would not notice a problem and allow her to obtain an ETA.(Of course if you can sneakily obtain an ETA by not declaring British citizenship, who knows if you will later face problems where the HO thinks you have overstayed, and you struggle to prove your right to remain in the UK). [Edit: see bottom]
We don’t know whether she tried to obtain an ETA or not, or whether or not she declared British citizenship to the airline or Home Office. If you tell the HO that you are British, but you/they can’t verify it, I think it’s only natural that you would not be granted entry.
So, I think as far as what @stu2b50 suggested, I fully agree that if HO can automatically verify your British citizenship you should just be allowed entry. As I say above, I suspect the problems come when what you declare doesn’t match up with what can be automatically verified.
Edit: I found this Home Office document which states at the bottom of section 4:
The intention of the ETA scheme is not to penalise people who unwittingly travel without
the correct permission, or with a permission to which they are not legally entitled. It is
about securing the UK border. In terms of specific ‘penalties’ for British dual nationals, I am
sure you are aware that s.24A (1) of the Immigration Act 1971 disapplies the offence of
obtaining an ETA by deception to British nationals.This seems to state that if you are able to obtain an ETA by lying to HO about your British citizenship, you cannot face any legal consequences.
The UK economy never truly recovered from the ‘08 financial crisis - we’ve just been compounding economic problems since then. In 2010, the Labour government which oversaw the crisis was ousted by the Conservative Party, which adhered to an economic policy called “austerity” until 2019. Austerity meant: the government is broke, so we’re going to try to spend as little as possible so we can get back to a level footing. There are two big problems with austerity: one is that government spending helps to stimulate the economy, so the economy is not as active during this period as it could be; two is that whatever savings made during austerity were pissed away on a series of frivolous policies (the list is endless but HS2, Brexit, and dodgy COVID contracts come to mind), completely defeating the point.
So, economic growth is already suppressed - on top of that we vote for Brexit, which comes into effect in 2020, massively dampening trade with our closest partners, plus the effect is even worse than it could have been because it’s handled so badly that it causes huge confusion and uncertainty.
I would actually say that COVID itself, whilst it has a noticeable short term impact, doesn’t particularly leave the UK worse off than anywhere else. So let’s keep moving. The UK is in a pretty weak financial position when Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine shocks the global economy, and fares worse than most - this is also when we start to hear about a “cost of living crisis”, due to a combination of general inflation as well as particularly severe increases in energy bills hitting the general population. This also has a severe effect on businesses, plus the knock on effect of households on tight budgets spending less, again dampening growth.
In the wake of COVID, the then-prime minister Boris Johnson is forced to resign due to a scandal - what follows is the shortest and most damaging premiership the country has ever seen. Liz Truss is prime minister for only 49 days - and the reason it’s so short is her completely disastrous economic policy.
Shortly after taking office, Truss (and her Chancellor, Kwasi Kwarteng) announce the infamous “mini-budget”, containing £45 billion in tax cuts funded exclusively by additional borrowing. The financial markets are thrown into turmoil by the insanity of this economic policy, the pound collapses and mortgage rates skyrocket. Weakened confidence in the UK economy also means higher interest on debt for the government, and this remains stubbornly high, and exceptionally sensitive to any policy announcements, long after Liz Truss is forced out for her catastrophic decision making.
After this, management of the UK economy turns a corner somewhat - PM Rishi Sunak and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt keep things fairly sensible for the remainder of the Conservative’s run in parliament, until the 2024 general election, in which Labour win, led by Starmer who brings in Rachel Reeves as chancellor. They continue to run a pretty sensible and fairly fiscally conservative economic policy - they have their work cut out just trying to balance Britain’s books, let alone trying to improve growth. But USA tariffs and the Iran war mean, in the two years since then, although we haven’t been actively declining, things haven’t got much better either. It’s still extremely difficult for the UK - we have very little financial headroom for extra spending on crucial public services (which are suffering from over a decade of underfunding), businesses are hiring less due to economic uncertainty and AI, and this means people have less to spend. It’s all a vicious cycle, and problem and crisis I’ve mentioned has compounded with the next, to leave the Treasury coffers empty, businesses stagnating, consumers with barely any cash to spend, and financial markets jittery at the slightest sign the government might overspend.
I also found the graphs in this Guardian article very illustrative; even overlooking the article’s main focus on Brexit, it paints the weakness of the UK economy compared to its peers in stark colours.