papasquat's recent activity
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Comment on Leak exposes members of Peter Thiel’s secretive ‘dialog’ society in ~society
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Comment on Leak exposes members of Peter Thiel’s secretive ‘dialog’ society in ~society
papasquat Link ParentI mean, this isn't a secret society. There are secret societies, that's a pretty well documented fact, and they have various levels of influence. The whole illuminati thing isn't the same thing as...I mean, this isn't a secret society. There are secret societies, that's a pretty well documented fact, and they have various levels of influence. The whole illuminati thing isn't the same thing as "there are powerful groups of people who don't publically disclose themselves" though.
It's that they control everything. That's the kooky part that is the forrest that a lot of people mistake for the trees when they get into conspiracy theories.
Like yes, there are powerful groups of people that meet in secret and have aligned interests. There are also other powerful groups of people that meet that also have different aligned interests though, and many of those interests are in direct conflict with the first group.
There's no single group that's been pulling the strings behind all governments and corporations of the world, which is what the illuminati conspiracy theory is.
A lot of times people point to the Epstein case or Camp David or Bohemian grove or whatever as proof that there's a secret cabal of elites that all conspire together to engineer world events, and yeah, there truly is some conspiring going on, but there's also a lot of conflict.
Unless you really want to go off the rails and frame every economic and wartime conflict as an eleborate, expensive stage performance for the general public, the illuminati claim falls on its face.
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Comment on Finland tears up nuclear weapons ban in NATO shift – decision clears way for Helsinki to receive, transport and facilitate movement of nuclear weapons on its territory in ~society
papasquat LinkIt's pretty wild to watch in real time how quickly and directly a single US president can so dramatically increase the likelihood of global nuclear war, but somehow still maintain strong support...It's pretty wild to watch in real time how quickly and directly a single US president can so dramatically increase the likelihood of global nuclear war, but somehow still maintain strong support from his base.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentOne of the things I've learned time and time again is that cool is many times, and maybe even mostly the opposite of good. I love the cyberpunk aesthetic, it's cool as hell. It's not good though,...One of the things I've learned time and time again is that cool is many times, and maybe even mostly the opposite of good. I love the cyberpunk aesthetic, it's cool as hell. It's not good though, as in, it would not be a good asthetic to have in a real life city.
I think some of the big Chinese cities come close, and I've always wanted to visit to test that theory out in real life.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentIt kinda makes me wonder if it's just the time that I grew up, or if we all collectively just started becoming more cynical and distrustful of technology as time went on. In the first half of the...It kinda makes me wonder if it's just the time that I grew up, or if we all collectively just started becoming more cynical and distrustful of technology as time went on.
In the first half of the 20th century, all of the sci-fi I'm familiar with was pretty optimistic about the future. Buck rogers and destination moon and all that stuff. The further along we got, the more cynical our media about the future seems to become.
I honestly cannot think of a movie or tv show released in the past 20 years that depicts the future as a good place to live. Even Star Trek shows released recently depict a future filled with war and distrust and hatred. Maybe it's just rose tinted glasses and there really was always a lot of dystopian sci fi, but it definitely doesn't seem that way to me when I think about it.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentAt this point, I really wish creative people would stop making interesting dystopian sci fi stories. The people in charge of the economy seem way too eager to use them as a roadmap. I love all of...At this point, I really wish creative people would stop making interesting dystopian sci fi stories. The people in charge of the economy seem way too eager to use them as a roadmap.
I love all of the movies you listed, but every tech billionaire does too, and they all apparently missed the fact that they were all cautionary tales, not how-to guides.
Just keep making more Star Trek: The Next Generation please. I don't think I can handle another torment nexus.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentNah, the aesthetic sucks too. It's cool to look at and watch movies about and play games in, but living in any cyberpunk world would monumentally blow, even on just a superficial level. The...Nah, the aesthetic sucks too. It's cool to look at and watch movies about and play games in, but living in any cyberpunk world would monumentally blow, even on just a superficial level. The constant dreary rain, the small hermetically sealed apartments, the bright, loud advertising at all hours of the night, which it somehow always is.
Literally none of that would be appealing to me to live in at all. It would probably make me mentally ill within a few months.
I think flying cars are the only thing from cyberpunk I think would be cool to have in real life, but only if people weren't allowed to manually fly them, because otherwise I'm sure one would crash into my house.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentIS that the tradeoff though? I go outside all the time and see my friends in person at least two or three times a week. I can't imagine how not having a phone would affect that, other than maybe...Would a peasant from the middle ages want a mobile phone if the trade off was rarely ever going outside and seeing your friends in person?
IS that the tradeoff though? I go outside all the time and see my friends in person at least two or three times a week. I can't imagine how not having a phone would affect that, other than maybe making it more difficult to make plans with said friends. I guess you could just choose to not see other people and stay inside on your phone all day, but that's a choice you're making, not something the phone is making you do.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #9: How optimistic are you about the future? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentMost human societies in most places are able to adapt to their circumstances no matter what and be generally happy. People find happiness in the middle of wars, in concentration camps, in famines...Most human societies in most places are able to adapt to their circumstances no matter what and be generally happy. People find happiness in the middle of wars, in concentration camps, in famines and all sorts of objectively horrible situations. I'm sure that the people that built Stonehenge weren't miserable, but that's not really a good measure of their actual quality of life.
All things the same, I'd much rather live in a time and place where if I get an infection, I can go to a doctor who tells me exactly what's wrong with me, what the cause is, and then gives me the drugs I need to fix it versus praying to sky god and hoping I don't die.
Yeah, I have to work a job that I don't particularly enjoy, but I only have to do it 8 hours a day, I get to do it in air conditioning sitting down, and I don't have to worry about megafauna deciding that I look like a delicious lunch. I don't really get scared of anything on a day to day basis, in fact, which is pretty damn rare for most of human history.
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentAI can't be "jammed", but it can be controlled. Probably much more easily than GPS can in fact. GPS relies on MEO satellites and relatively simple electronics that can be manufactured en masse for...AI can't be "jammed", but it can be controlled. Probably much more easily than GPS can in fact. GPS relies on MEO satellites and relatively simple electronics that can be manufactured en masse for a couple bucks per unit. You can jam it locally, but jamming an entire country or region would be nearly impossible.
AI on the other hand, requires GPUs, which are the most sophisticated piece of technology humanity has ever mass manufactured. The high end units that frontier AI models require are manufactured only in a few places in the world, using advanced equipment that only a few people know how to operate, which are manufacturered by literally one company.
If you cut off GPU supplies to a company or country, they can no longer do AI at any meaningful scale. They could smuggle some GPUs in, but not enough to be useful. Even if they do get some in, they're quickly made obsolete, and they fail frequently at the duty cycles they're used in. You need a constant stream of cutting edge GPUs to have an AI industry, and I don't really see that changing soon.
If we wanted to virtually stop all AI globally, we could do so by sabotaging around 400 EUV lithography machines. It's a ridiculously fragile industry compared to how insanely profitable it is.
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentI don't think it's necessarily manager v manager or eliminating white collar labor. At a manager level, they just want their team to perform more/better work without having to justify more...I don't think it's necessarily manager v manager or eliminating white collar labor. At a manager level, they just want their team to perform more/better work without having to justify more headcount. They don't actually want to reduce the size of their teams.
I think overall, that's probably the goal at most companies. Do more work with the same amount of people, rather than do the same amount of work with fewer people. That obviously only works when things are going well for the company though.
Overall, the reason AI is so popular is that promise. Get more work done, require fewer people to do it. Same reason forklifts got popular, or CNC machines, or phones or basically any other technology that businesses use. I think "reduce labor" is probably more accurate than "eliminate labor".
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentWell, because both Uber and Lyft need to constantly develop software. Bugs are found, APIs change, features are added. If it takes both Uber and Lyft, say, 300 developers to do all of that work,...Well, because both Uber and Lyft need to constantly develop software. Bugs are found, APIs change, features are added. If it takes both Uber and Lyft, say, 300 developers to do all of that work, and you're paying them $100k a year, they're paying $30m a year in developer salaries. If Lyft can figure out a way to do that same work with 150 developers + AI, they've saved a ton of money, which means they can afford to take less of a cut of what a ride costs, which means they can charge lower prices, and people will get the option to take a Lyft, or a more expensive Uber, and they'll start eating up Ubers market share.
That's the concept anyway. It's debatable about whether that would actually happen, but the point is that both compares are afraid it might, hence the arms race.
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Comment on Caught the cycling bug. Anyone else? in ~hobbies
papasquat LinkI suck ass at riding a bicycle. It's one of those things that I've been meaning to get better at, and it's pretty amazing how bad I am at it. I do HIIT, and I can run for miles, row for a long...I suck ass at riding a bicycle. It's one of those things that I've been meaning to get better at, and it's pretty amazing how bad I am at it.
I do HIIT, and I can run for miles, row for a long term on an erg, do burpees well, you name it. I'm not a cardio beast or anything, but I can hang in there. When it comes to biking though? Five minutes at a decent pace and I'm done.
I don't know why I'm so horrifically bad at it, but I have been all my life. I'd like to get into cycling at one point just to see if there's something about my physiology that makes me terrible at it or if it's something I can overcome with practice and conditioning.
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Comment on What’s something that didn’t work for you? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentOh man, I just saw this one and I have maybe the exact opposite travel style. My sister is similar to you though, and I'll never travel with her again because of it. We've gone to a few places and...Oh man, I just saw this one and I have maybe the exact opposite travel style. My sister is similar to you though, and I'll never travel with her again because of it. We've gone to a few places and she always has a very strict itinerary she has to meet, a tight timetable, and if anything goes wrong to impact any of those things, it throws the entire day off. I don't really like that level of stress on vacation, but what I've found that really puts me off of traveling that way is the lack of spontaneous discovery.
When we traveled together, sometimes I would learn something either by reading a sign, or talking to a local, and it seems unique and interesting. We never had any time to do that stuff, and I always felt like I missed out, because my sister always wanted to do her itinerary which consisted of the "main thing to do" at that place. Personally, I don't really care about seeing the Eifel tower or the pyramids of giza or the acropolis, because I've seen all of those things on postcards or pictures or tv shows a million times. Every time I do eventually see one of them, I'm like "yep, that's the Eifel tower alright".
The weird underground restaurants or night clubs or markets are the things you never really hear about and are the interesting part of traveling to me.
To each their own, but I've definitely noticed that when it comes to travel, the preference to meticulously plan versus discover on a whim is the most important spectrum to consider when choosing travel partners.
I went on a multi week central Europe trip a few years back with a friend of mine with a backpack of clothes, a vague idea of where we'd be staying and that's about it. It was such an amazing trip and I just know I would have hated it if I went with my sister.
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentBy a third the price, I mean versus the kinds of vehicles that are by far most frequently sold here; trucks and SUVs, which tend to be much more expensive than the types of vehicles Chinese...By a third the price, I mean versus the kinds of vehicles that are by far most frequently sold here; trucks and SUVs, which tend to be much more expensive than the types of vehicles Chinese manufacturers make.
It's a compelling argument for a lot of Americans to spend a bunch of extra money to buy a massive SUV versus a hatchback. I don't know if it would still be as compelling if the gap was even wider due to cheap Chinese EVs.
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentI think Americans like the idea of a car that can do everything more than they actually need one that actually does everything. Americans spend more money on cars than anyone else in the world,...I think Americans like the idea of a car that can do everything more than they actually need one that actually does everything.
Americans spend more money on cars than anyone else in the world, and average 2 vehicles per household, which is another pretty big outlier versus anywhere else.If there was truly a need for them to do so many things, it would make a lot more sense to buy specialized vehicles for those things; it would be more economical, and the cars would be better at those things.
What most Americans want based on conversations I've had with people buying cars is the theoretical ability to do those things. I've had people brag about how good their truck's 4x4 capabilities are despite never taking it off-road and not having any concrete plans to. People brag about how powerful their car is despite never even considering taking it on a race track. They brag about how roomy it is despite never taking long road trips, or how big the bed is despite never actually hauling anything.
Marketing has done a great job convincing them that they need this monster machine ready for the end of the world, when what they really need is something that they can drive to work, to the grocery story, and to pick up some supplies every now and again. A $22k hatchback can do that job better than a $120k 4 door pickup can, but the hatchback can't theoretically climb a dirt trail hill, or tow a 13,000 lbs trailer or run over a horde of zombies or all the other things that the person buying it imagines they may, but in reality never will need it to do.
I've literally had this conversation with a friend of mine of
"him: I'm thinking of getting the new f-150. It's got a huge towing capacity.
Me: but you don't have a trailer
Him: well yeah but if I had the f-150 I could"
People just like having these fantasy options open to them, despite never actually needing them.
People in other countries tend to be more pragmatic with their vehicle choices, probably because of both culture and less disposable income in general.
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentThe EV tarrifs may have been sold that way, but it's always been truly about blatant protectionism. The US auto lobby is extremely powerful, and people still associate Detroit with being part of...The EV tarrifs may have been sold that way, but it's always been truly about blatant protectionism. The US auto lobby is extremely powerful, and people still associate Detroit with being part of the backbone of the American economy, when that's debatable.
They know that if Chinese EVs were allowed into the US, they'd get absolutely shredded, because as much as Americans love our big dumb expensive inefficient trucks, it's very difficult to argue with a car that costs a third the price, is more comfortable, and doesn't require gas.
The US auto industry has done effectively nothing to keep up, and as a of the perceived need to protect those companies, Americans are going to be driving inferior cars at inflated prices as far as I can see.
We're in a situation right now that isn't too dissimilar from the protectionism from the soviet union during the Cold war, where the evil capitalist products had import bans and all of the cool hip connected teenagers wore black market Levi's. Except now we're the protectionists, and the people who make the products we want are "communists".
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Comment on If you are asking for human attention, demonstrate human effort in ~comp
papasquat LinkI 100% agree. This has happened to me many, many times. I ask someone who works for me, or with me a question, and I receive obviously AI generated output back. Or I recieve a question very...I 100% agree. This has happened to me many, many times. I ask someone who works for me, or with me a question, and I receive obviously AI generated output back. Or I recieve a question very obviously generated with an AI prompt.
A few thoughts almost always come to my head:
- You spent no time creating this. Why do you now expect me to spend time reading this.
But also
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Do you think I'm stupid, because you don't think I wouldnt be able to detect that this extremely obviously AI generated content is in fact, AI generated, and somehow will think this is something you wrote?
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Do you think I'm ignorant? As in, I don't even know that AI exists? Because if I did know that AI exists, in the time it took me to formulate the request to you, I could have also typed chatgpt.com into my browser and pasted my question. Do they think I haven't thought of that? LLMs aren't some magical unknown power that only you have access to.
It sort of feels like back in the day when you would ask a question online, and someone would reply back to you with a let me Google that for you link. Except you'd never do that to someone you work with. Sending AI slop responses at work has become endemic though.
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Comment on Will you be left behind if you don't use LLMs to code? in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentI think there's a little bit of wiggle room there, especially for industries with life or death situations that their code is in direct control of, but how many features a developer can complete...I think there's a little bit of wiggle room there, especially for industries with life or death situations that their code is in direct control of, but how many features a developer can complete has been the main metric almost everywhere I've worked. For one, quality is very hard to measure unless code just straight up fails tests, but secondly, product teams get much more excited about features than they do about bug free code. 99% of the product teams I've worked with would much rather have a new feature delivered on time with some bugs than a delayed, but totally bug free feature.
Sales and marketing teams are hounding product for features. Very few sales and marketing teams are selling software based on "yes, our product may not be able to do as much as our competitors, but it never crashes".
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Comment on Will you be left behind if you don't use LLMs to code? in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentI think programming as a hobby is really a lot different than doing it for a living. You get to pick what you're doing when you do it as a hobby. You get to pick your projects, your pace, your...I think programming as a hobby is really a lot different than doing it for a living.
You get to pick what you're doing when you do it as a hobby. You get to pick your projects, your pace, your language, your IDE, your tools and so forth. Most of that goes out the window when you do it for a large company.
You work on the projects that get assigned to you, using the language and frameworks that that product is built on. You use the computer, IDE and so forth that your employer gives you. And most importantly, you have stand-ups where you need to answer for your pace. If you're working on the same story item for weeks because you're stuck, the pressure is on you. You can't afford to just leisurely poke around when you feel like it, because your livelihood depends on you shipping code.
Especially in this environment, companies will use whatever metrics they can when it comes time to determine who gets laid off. The amount of code you shipped is the main measure they use.
Even ignoring the mandates that a lot of companies have right now for LLMs, you get a huge leg up when it comes to shipping workable software. Will it produce software that is as efficient, readable, and clean as a master software engineer with back of the hand familiarity with the code base? In most cases no, but it will work, and most of the time it will work pretty well, in a fraction of the time it would take you to write it from scratch.
There's a reason why things like handcrafted leather working, or blacksmithing, or non mechanized farming aren't big industries anymore. Those things are cool and interesting to do on your own time, but they can't match the production speed and volume of automation, so very few companies other than small, boutique industries will pay you to do them.
Maybe in extremely critical areas, like NASA, there will be room for entirely hand crafted code, but 99.99% of software doesn't have that kind of constraint. Volume and speed are more important metrics than quality for most software development scenarios.
They don't control the globe though. There's not a single head of state on that list. Only 2% of the US Senate is on the list. Barely anyone from an EU govenrment is on the list, and no one from the Russian or Chinese governments.
How could you make the argument that the people in that room control the globe?
Are they influential? Sure, but there are lots of rooms where lots of influential people gather. Most of them aren't public.
"A bunch of influential people regularly meet privately" is a much different claim than "a group of people control the entire world and are in cahoots".