papasquat's recent activity
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
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Comment on Access to Fable and Mythos 5 cut off after US government order in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentWell, because both Uber and Lyft need to constantly develop software. Bugs are found, APIs change, features are added. If it takes both Uber and Lyft, say, 300 developers to do all of that work,...Well, because both Uber and Lyft need to constantly develop software. Bugs are found, APIs change, features are added. If it takes both Uber and Lyft, say, 300 developers to do all of that work, and you're paying them $100k a year, they're paying $30m a year in developer salaries. If Lyft can figure out a way to do that same work with 150 developers + AI, they've saved a ton of money, which means they can afford to take less of a cut of what a ride costs, which means they can charge lower prices, and people will get the option to take a Lyft, or a more expensive Uber, and they'll start eating up Ubers market share.
That's the concept anyway. It's debatable about whether that would actually happen, but the point is that both compares are afraid it might, hence the arms race.
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Comment on Caught the cycling bug. Anyone else? in ~hobbies
papasquat LinkI suck ass at riding a bicycle. It's one of those things that I've been meaning to get better at, and it's pretty amazing how bad I am at it. I do HIIT, and I can run for miles, row for a long...I suck ass at riding a bicycle. It's one of those things that I've been meaning to get better at, and it's pretty amazing how bad I am at it.
I do HIIT, and I can run for miles, row for a long term on an erg, do burpees well, you name it. I'm not a cardio beast or anything, but I can hang in there. When it comes to biking though? Five minutes at a decent pace and I'm done.
I don't know why I'm so horrifically bad at it, but I have been all my life. I'd like to get into cycling at one point just to see if there's something about my physiology that makes me terrible at it or if it's something I can overcome with practice and conditioning.
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Comment on What’s something that didn’t work for you? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentOh man, I just saw this one and I have maybe the exact opposite travel style. My sister is similar to you though, and I'll never travel with her again because of it. We've gone to a few places and...Oh man, I just saw this one and I have maybe the exact opposite travel style. My sister is similar to you though, and I'll never travel with her again because of it. We've gone to a few places and she always has a very strict itinerary she has to meet, a tight timetable, and if anything goes wrong to impact any of those things, it throws the entire day off. I don't really like that level of stress on vacation, but what I've found that really puts me off of traveling that way is the lack of spontaneous discovery.
When we traveled together, sometimes I would learn something either by reading a sign, or talking to a local, and it seems unique and interesting. We never had any time to do that stuff, and I always felt like I missed out, because my sister always wanted to do her itinerary which consisted of the "main thing to do" at that place. Personally, I don't really care about seeing the Eifel tower or the pyramids of giza or the acropolis, because I've seen all of those things on postcards or pictures or tv shows a million times. Every time I do eventually see one of them, I'm like "yep, that's the Eifel tower alright".
The weird underground restaurants or night clubs or markets are the things you never really hear about and are the interesting part of traveling to me.
To each their own, but I've definitely noticed that when it comes to travel, the preference to meticulously plan versus discover on a whim is the most important spectrum to consider when choosing travel partners.
I went on a multi week central Europe trip a few years back with a friend of mine with a backpack of clothes, a vague idea of where we'd be staying and that's about it. It was such an amazing trip and I just know I would have hated it if I went with my sister.
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentBy a third the price, I mean versus the kinds of vehicles that are by far most frequently sold here; trucks and SUVs, which tend to be much more expensive than the types of vehicles Chinese...By a third the price, I mean versus the kinds of vehicles that are by far most frequently sold here; trucks and SUVs, which tend to be much more expensive than the types of vehicles Chinese manufacturers make.
It's a compelling argument for a lot of Americans to spend a bunch of extra money to buy a massive SUV versus a hatchback. I don't know if it would still be as compelling if the gap was even wider due to cheap Chinese EVs.
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentI think Americans like the idea of a car that can do everything more than they actually need one that actually does everything. Americans spend more money on cars than anyone else in the world,...I think Americans like the idea of a car that can do everything more than they actually need one that actually does everything.
Americans spend more money on cars than anyone else in the world, and average 2 vehicles per household, which is another pretty big outlier versus anywhere else.If there was truly a need for them to do so many things, it would make a lot more sense to buy specialized vehicles for those things; it would be more economical, and the cars would be better at those things.
What most Americans want based on conversations I've had with people buying cars is the theoretical ability to do those things. I've had people brag about how good their truck's 4x4 capabilities are despite never taking it off-road and not having any concrete plans to. People brag about how powerful their car is despite never even considering taking it on a race track. They brag about how roomy it is despite never taking long road trips, or how big the bed is despite never actually hauling anything.
Marketing has done a great job convincing them that they need this monster machine ready for the end of the world, when what they really need is something that they can drive to work, to the grocery story, and to pick up some supplies every now and again. A $22k hatchback can do that job better than a $120k 4 door pickup can, but the hatchback can't theoretically climb a dirt trail hill, or tow a 13,000 lbs trailer or run over a horde of zombies or all the other things that the person buying it imagines they may, but in reality never will need it to do.
I've literally had this conversation with a friend of mine of
"him: I'm thinking of getting the new f-150. It's got a huge towing capacity.
Me: but you don't have a trailer
Him: well yeah but if I had the f-150 I could"
People just like having these fantasy options open to them, despite never actually needing them.
People in other countries tend to be more pragmatic with their vehicle choices, probably because of both culture and less disposable income in general.
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Comment on US battery industry cuts losses, shifts to new ventures amid electric vehicle bust in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentThe EV tarrifs may have been sold that way, but it's always been truly about blatant protectionism. The US auto lobby is extremely powerful, and people still associate Detroit with being part of...The EV tarrifs may have been sold that way, but it's always been truly about blatant protectionism. The US auto lobby is extremely powerful, and people still associate Detroit with being part of the backbone of the American economy, when that's debatable.
They know that if Chinese EVs were allowed into the US, they'd get absolutely shredded, because as much as Americans love our big dumb expensive inefficient trucks, it's very difficult to argue with a car that costs a third the price, is more comfortable, and doesn't require gas.
The US auto industry has done effectively nothing to keep up, and as a of the perceived need to protect those companies, Americans are going to be driving inferior cars at inflated prices as far as I can see.
We're in a situation right now that isn't too dissimilar from the protectionism from the soviet union during the Cold war, where the evil capitalist products had import bans and all of the cool hip connected teenagers wore black market Levi's. Except now we're the protectionists, and the people who make the products we want are "communists".
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Comment on If you are asking for human attention, demonstrate human effort in ~comp
papasquat LinkI 100% agree. This has happened to me many, many times. I ask someone who works for me, or with me a question, and I receive obviously AI generated output back. Or I recieve a question very...I 100% agree. This has happened to me many, many times. I ask someone who works for me, or with me a question, and I receive obviously AI generated output back. Or I recieve a question very obviously generated with an AI prompt.
A few thoughts almost always come to my head:
- You spent no time creating this. Why do you now expect me to spend time reading this.
But also
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Do you think I'm stupid, because you don't think I wouldnt be able to detect that this extremely obviously AI generated content is in fact, AI generated, and somehow will think this is something you wrote?
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Do you think I'm ignorant? As in, I don't even know that AI exists? Because if I did know that AI exists, in the time it took me to formulate the request to you, I could have also typed chatgpt.com into my browser and pasted my question. Do they think I haven't thought of that? LLMs aren't some magical unknown power that only you have access to.
It sort of feels like back in the day when you would ask a question online, and someone would reply back to you with a let me Google that for you link. Except you'd never do that to someone you work with. Sending AI slop responses at work has become endemic though.
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Comment on Will you be left behind if you don't use LLMs to code? in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentI think there's a little bit of wiggle room there, especially for industries with life or death situations that their code is in direct control of, but how many features a developer can complete...I think there's a little bit of wiggle room there, especially for industries with life or death situations that their code is in direct control of, but how many features a developer can complete has been the main metric almost everywhere I've worked. For one, quality is very hard to measure unless code just straight up fails tests, but secondly, product teams get much more excited about features than they do about bug free code. 99% of the product teams I've worked with would much rather have a new feature delivered on time with some bugs than a delayed, but totally bug free feature.
Sales and marketing teams are hounding product for features. Very few sales and marketing teams are selling software based on "yes, our product may not be able to do as much as our competitors, but it never crashes".
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Comment on Will you be left behind if you don't use LLMs to code? in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentI think programming as a hobby is really a lot different than doing it for a living. You get to pick what you're doing when you do it as a hobby. You get to pick your projects, your pace, your...I think programming as a hobby is really a lot different than doing it for a living.
You get to pick what you're doing when you do it as a hobby. You get to pick your projects, your pace, your language, your IDE, your tools and so forth. Most of that goes out the window when you do it for a large company.
You work on the projects that get assigned to you, using the language and frameworks that that product is built on. You use the computer, IDE and so forth that your employer gives you. And most importantly, you have stand-ups where you need to answer for your pace. If you're working on the same story item for weeks because you're stuck, the pressure is on you. You can't afford to just leisurely poke around when you feel like it, because your livelihood depends on you shipping code.
Especially in this environment, companies will use whatever metrics they can when it comes time to determine who gets laid off. The amount of code you shipped is the main measure they use.
Even ignoring the mandates that a lot of companies have right now for LLMs, you get a huge leg up when it comes to shipping workable software. Will it produce software that is as efficient, readable, and clean as a master software engineer with back of the hand familiarity with the code base? In most cases no, but it will work, and most of the time it will work pretty well, in a fraction of the time it would take you to write it from scratch.
There's a reason why things like handcrafted leather working, or blacksmithing, or non mechanized farming aren't big industries anymore. Those things are cool and interesting to do on your own time, but they can't match the production speed and volume of automation, so very few companies other than small, boutique industries will pay you to do them.
Maybe in extremely critical areas, like NASA, there will be room for entirely hand crafted code, but 99.99% of software doesn't have that kind of constraint. Volume and speed are more important metrics than quality for most software development scenarios.
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Comment on Will you be left behind if you don't use LLMs to code? in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentI don't think there's a universe where LLMs aren't used in software development going forward. The vibe coding future of no one manually writing code may or may not come to fruition, but the genie...I don't think there's a universe where LLMs aren't used in software development going forward. The vibe coding future of no one manually writing code may or may not come to fruition, but the genie is out of the bottle when it comes to coding assistants, and it's not going back in.
A CFO deciding token costs are too high and cutting off LLM subscriptions would make about as much sense as deciding computers are too expensive and requiring developers to code on pieces of paper. I can see token use optimization being a thing, and encouraging developers to be more efficient with how they decide to spend tokens, but developers are measured on how much working code they ship. LLMs in their current state very obviously let developer ship a lot more working code. I can't think of a single technology that exists which helps developers ship more code that hasn't eventually become standard practice. That fact means they're here to stay.
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Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
papasquat LinkElon Musk has made me think about leadership as a concept a lot lately. He's one of the most controversial business leaders of the past 50 years, with lots of people canonizing him as a radical,...Elon Musk has made me think about leadership as a concept a lot lately.
He's one of the most controversial business leaders of the past 50 years, with lots of people canonizing him as a radical, innovative genius, and a lot of others categorizing him as a lucky, delusional nepo baby without much talent.
It's made me think about the idea of whether the leader of an organization is responsible for its success, and compare it to leadership experiences in my own life.
I think the common conception of leadership is a little flawed. We tend to ascribe all of an organization's successes and all of its failures to its leader. There's some truth to that, but I don't feel like its all of the truth.
It is true, in almost every situation, that the leader of an organization has more influence on that organization than any single other person. I don't agree however, that they have more influence than all of the other people in the organization.
I've seen great leaders fail because of terrible organizations, and terrible leaders succeed because of great organizations.
I've been both that terrible and great leader myself I think.A lot has been said about Elon main strength being his hype generation/reality distortion bubble a la Steve Jobs, and I agree that much of his success is owed to that. The discussion around that ability focuses on the demand side though; he drums up excitement by investors and consumers by talking about incredible, moonshot sci Fi ideas, and despite always coming up short and not being able to deliver on them, he manages to continue to sell these ideas. He doesn't just sell it to people buying his products and shares of his companies though. He also sells it to prospective employees.
I actually interviewed for SpaceX a few years ago for a technical role relating to Starlink. I was working at a large bank, making pretty decent money, fully remote, but I wanted to move on because it was getting pretty stagnant. There was at least four rounds of interviews, and a take home assignment that was pretty in depth architecture work. It took me about 8 hours, and I was quite confident in the solution; I'd been doing network architecture for years, and what they were asking was complex, but nothing too daunting for me.
They told me that 1. They didn't like my solution 2. They would not be telling me why they didn't like it, and 3. Baffingly, they wanted to continue to interview me.
The next round would have been an in person, 3 day long interview in LA.
Between that, the fact that when I asked about Elon (this was right at the beginning of his "dark maga" stuff), they deified the guy, and the fact that they were actually offering less than I was making at the time for a 100% in person job, in LA, I told them to forget it.
It made me think though, there probably are quite a few people with a similar skill level as me that are willing to do that job for the chance to say they work with rockets at SpaceX. It's kind of a nerds dream job.
It's not surprising that Elon has been able to use this strategy to underpay for world class talent, just like he's able to overcharge for subpar products. It's a massive leg up when it comes to building a successful company.
If Elon's only real skills are this marketing ability (and they very well may be), it still means he has a company run by some of the best people in the world who he doesn't have to pay that much. It's hard to fail when you have that foundation. His leadership ability, vision, strategy, or whatever else a CEO is supposed to have doesn't really matter. His strong talent base will continually save him.
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Comment on Singer Oliver Tree dead at 32 following tragic helicopter crash in ~music
papasquat LinkI wasn't a big fan, but it's incredibly tragic that someone basically at the peak of their career, at essentially the beginning of their life doesn't actually get to enjoy any of their success. As...I wasn't a big fan, but it's incredibly tragic that someone basically at the peak of their career, at essentially the beginning of their life doesn't actually get to enjoy any of their success.
As a side note, it seems like this happens far too often with celebrities. I wonder if anyone has compared the death rate of celebrities in aircraft versus the general population. Air travel is by far the most safest way to travel for most people, but celebrities seem to die that way all the time.
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Comment on Not alive, but not dead: disembodied human brains used for drug testing in ~science
papasquat Link ParentI've never done one myself, but that's the goal with a sensory deprivation tank. You get sealed in a dark, silent room, suspended in room temperature water. There's no visual, auditory, olfactory,...I've never done one myself, but that's the goal with a sensory deprivation tank. You get sealed in a dark, silent room, suspended in room temperature water. There's no visual, auditory, olfactory, gustatory, or tactile input at all (or at least as close to as feasible). There are minor sensory inputs like the vestibular system, but you're motionless, so nothing is really being stimulated much.
From what I've heard, people do hallucinate and go into a somewhat altered, meditative state, but they're still conscious. They also have to be willing to enter that altered state. At any moment, they can choose to "snap out of it" and become fully aware and conscious, which I imagine someone forcefully put into that situation would try to do, like trying constantly to wake up from an endless black void of a dream but always failing, without any feedback as to why.
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Comment on Not alive, but not dead: disembodied human brains used for drug testing in ~science
papasquat Link ParentWell, I think it comes down to the reasons why murder is scarier to most people than dying of natural causes. If you're suffering because of some natural law of the universe, that's something it...Well, I think it comes down to the reasons why murder is scarier to most people than dying of natural causes. If you're suffering because of some natural law of the universe, that's something it sucks, but its no one's fault, it's just a constraint of the world.
When someone causes your suffering though, there's the knowledge that it didn't actually have to happen, they could have made a different decision, but chose not to.
Like, falling off a cliff to my death would suck. I'd rather have that than be pushed off a cliff to my death though.
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Comment on Not alive, but not dead: disembodied human brains used for drug testing in ~science
papasquat LinkAnother day, another torment nexus. This might be the most horrific scenario to ever be imagined by humankind. If this happened to me, and I was in any way conscious, it would be the most...Another day, another torment nexus.
This might be the most horrific scenario to ever be imagined by humankind. If this happened to me, and I was in any way conscious, it would be the most absolutely horrific thing I can possibly imagine happening to me, physically. I'd literally rather be in a Nazi death camp.
With that being your risk, I don't see how any of this could ever be made ethical in any way.
Alzheimer's is horrific, but at least it's a natural phenomenon.
Knowing that human being decided to keep you alive with the risk, however small, of remaining conscious, and cutting off all of your sensory function or connection with the real world to bathe you in experimental drugs repeatedly before killing you to study your response would be the worse kind of torture I can personally even imagine.
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Comment on What's a game you're dying to play that doesn't exist? in ~games
papasquat Link ParentI've looked at it. It seems really it interesting, but I haven't given it a try because I've heard there's not much in the way of content. If I'm going to rope a bunch of my friends into buying a...I've looked at it. It seems really it interesting, but I haven't given it a try because I've heard there's not much in the way of content. If I'm going to rope a bunch of my friends into buying a game, I'd want something that'll keep them engaged for at least 20 or 30 hours.
I believe there was another similar game that was supposed to be released soon, but I forgot the name.
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Comment on What's a game you're dying to play that doesn't exist? in ~games
papasquat LinkMy all time absolute favorite psuedo genre of game is something I'd maybe call... "Co-op journey games". Games where the objective is to get from one place to another over a long journey with your...My all time absolute favorite psuedo genre of game is something I'd maybe call... "Co-op journey games". Games where the objective is to get from one place to another over a long journey with your friends. Usually centered around some vehicle or vehicles.
Barotrauma is the one I've been playing lately, but RV There Yet, The Raft and so on fit into the genre nicely also.
I've always wanted one of those games, centered on an air ship. The key is that you must make a reason for the players to stop frequently. Interesting caves to explore, resources to upgrade the airship, fuel to power it, materials to craft ammunition for it. The airship becomes a base, but also close air support if you get into a sticky situation.
Upgrades and customization are the main source of the feeling of progression, and there are ideally lots of procedurally generated missions, but also hand crafted story missions that tell some sort of overall interesting story. Something like the fallout universe would be a great setting; huge overarching meta story, but also lots of interesting little pockets of societies and cultures within it.
I've dreamed of a game like that for years, but haven't seen anything that scratches the itch.
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Comment on "Teachers are going to hate it": How social media apps hooked teens at school in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentI think they're saying that you'd suspend section 230 protections for companies that "meddle" in their feed by choosing to show certain content to certain users. It makes sense, because by...I think they're saying that you'd suspend section 230 protections for companies that "meddle" in their feed by choosing to show certain content to certain users.
It makes sense, because by exercising editorial control, you're acting in a greater capacity than just a simple service provider.
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Comment on "Teachers are going to hate it": How social media apps hooked teens at school in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentI've heard people say that a lot, and while I disagree with the kind of data collection that would be needed to actually implement this stuff, I don't doubt it would work. I think the argument may...Prohibiting teens to do something is never, ever going to work. While the intent may be good, these kinds of laws are utterly useless, and won't solve anything.
I've heard people say that a lot, and while I disagree with the kind of data collection that would be needed to actually implement this stuff, I don't doubt it would work.
I think the argument may boil down to different definitions of "work". Like, will it eliminate all kids on social media 100% of the time? No, definitely not. I think putting technical controls in place would definitely reduce the number of kids on social media though.
Lots of kids would install VPNs or use fake IDs or whatever, but not all of them would, because it's a pain to do. There'd be some level of reduction in social media access. How much? No clue.
I don't think it's necessarily manager v manager or eliminating white collar labor. At a manager level, they just want their team to perform more/better work without having to justify more headcount. They don't actually want to reduce the size of their teams.
I think overall, that's probably the goal at most companies. Do more work with the same amount of people, rather than do the same amount of work with fewer people. That obviously only works when things are going well for the company though.
Overall, the reason AI is so popular is that promise. Get more work done, require fewer people to do it. Same reason forklifts got popular, or CNC machines, or phones or basically any other technology that businesses use. I think "reduce labor" is probably more accurate than "eliminate labor".