papasquat's recent activity
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Comment on Meta to acquire Moltbook, the social network for AI agents in ~tech
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Comment on US government announces pilot program for eVTOLS and ultralight aerial vehicles even without FAA certification in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentYes, I hope you're right and that energy costs come down dramatically in the future, and I think that you're likely correct that they will. The concern I have is that unlike water, human society...Yes, I hope you're right and that energy costs come down dramatically in the future, and I think that you're likely correct that they will.
The concern I have is that unlike water, human society seems to have an unquenchable appetite for energy. There are places that have so much potable water available that it may as well be free, and human beings can only drink so much and take so many showers per day.
There aren't places like that with energy though. Every time we build a huge amount of capacity or a new technology enables efficiency, it quickly gets gobbled up by individuals or industry. The average energy use per person has tripled since the 19th century, and it's really only capped because of the cost of production.
I feel like once we get portable fusion reactors, people will be complaining that "eugh, $0.05 per pWh is ridiculous. I can only afford to run my matter synthesis machine to replicate 10 grams of gold per day at this rate, and my house costs me 5 bucks a month just to stay aloft!"
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Comment on Determinism and Back To The Future in ~talk
papasquat LinkI don't think most people have a perception of free will that squares with what you're presenting. I think most people would fall more into the determinism camp. That is, if you presented me the...I don't think most people have a perception of free will that squares with what you're presenting. I think most people would fall more into the determinism camp. That is, if you presented me the exact same option a million times with exactly the same conditions, I'd make the exact same choice.
In your #2 example, you would choose differently many times because it's impossible to control every variable. Even though your memory gets wiped, your physical condition would be different each time. You'd be slightly more or less tired or hungry, the temperature would be slightly different each time, your experience that morning getting to the lab would be different, and even failing all of that, your mind will physically age slightly each time you repeat the experiment. The only way to perfectly control every variable would be a magic movie-esque time loop. In those conditions, I do believe that most people would think that they'd always make the same decision on each iteration of the loop. For evidence of this, no one generally has a problem with the characters of groundhog day taking the same actions each day unless Bill Murray's character somehow influences them.
That may or not be the case in real life, but we have no feasible way to actually test that hypothesis.
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Comment on The billionaire ‘buccaneer’ braving the Strait of Hormuz in ~transport
papasquat LinkReally weirdly positive puff piece, and an interesting choice to call an oligarch profiting off of a war by sending his employees into their very likely deaths a "bucaneer". I might be wrong, but...Really weirdly positive puff piece, and an interesting choice to call an oligarch profiting off of a war by sending his employees into their very likely deaths a "bucaneer".
I might be wrong, but weren't bucaneers generally on the ships they commanded into danger, and not lounging around on their massive yachts docked safely in the Greek Riviera?
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Comment on Meta to acquire Moltbook, the social network for AI agents in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentCould you explain what you mean by high agency?Could you explain what you mean by high agency?
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Comment on US government announces pilot program for eVTOLS and ultralight aerial vehicles even without FAA certification in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentThe thing is, we often think of a 100% renewable future as one with free energy, simply because the "fuel" is freely beamed down to us or powered by the sun. That's not really the case though. The...The thing is, we often think of a 100% renewable future as one with free energy, simply because the "fuel" is freely beamed down to us or powered by the sun. That's not really the case though. The cost of the energy itself is only a portion of energy costs. Collection, distribution, and storage is still very expensive and always will be.
Wind turbines need to be built and serviced, solar panels need to be constructed and replaced, batteries have a limited lifespan. Renewables make it cheaper to produce energy, but it doesn't make them free, not by a long shot. Because of that, efficiency will always matter.
The only way I could see this ever changing would be the creation of absolutely outlandish maybe even impossible sci fi technology, like tiny cheap fusion reactors.
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Comment on The first multi-behavior brain upload in ~science
papasquat LinkI don't know if it's because I'm getting older or if new tech breakthroughs really are becoming more and more ethically questionable, but there's a disturbing trend of an increasing proportion of...I don't know if it's because I'm getting older or if new tech breakthroughs really are becoming more and more ethically questionable, but there's a disturbing trend of an increasing proportion of new tech stories laying the groundwork for the torment nexus
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Comment on US government announces pilot program for eVTOLS and ultralight aerial vehicles even without FAA certification in ~transport
papasquat Link ParentYeah, I really don't get all of the excitement over evtols. They're fundementaly slightly cheaper, way less capable helicopters. There's nothing about them revolutionary from a transportation...Yeah, I really don't get all of the excitement over evtols.
They're fundementaly slightly cheaper, way less capable helicopters. There's nothing about them revolutionary from a transportation perspective; and they have all of the drawbacks that helicopters do: expense, noise, danger, and energy inefficiency. They're arguably even more dangerous than helicopters because of a complete lack of autorotation capabilities, meaning in the event of a total power loss, unless there's some sort of emergency parachute, your death is basically guaranteed.
Regardless, spending 300kwh to move a single person a few miles is never going to be an efficient or cost effective way to transport people, regardless of the medium used to store that energy.
The whole field feels very focused on posting slick looking articles online for the Facebook crowd rather than actually producing decent transit options.
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Comment on Documents reveal a web of financial ties between Donald Trump officials and the US industries they help regulate in ~society
papasquat Link ParentIf it's one thing that we should take away from his presidency, it's that committed, popular support is literally the only thing that matters in politics. Rule of law, norms, watchdog...If it's one thing that we should take away from his presidency, it's that committed, popular support is literally the only thing that matters in politics. Rule of law, norms, watchdog organizations, the three branches of government, none of that matters if you have a fanatical, committed base. They're all just powerless words on paper. If you can win elections, and more importantly, if people think you can win and influence elections, you can do literally whatever you want.
I'm not sure what that says about (big R) Republicanism as a governance concept, but it feels like there are a lot of assumptions about how a Republic operates under duress that we've been taking for granted up until they were proven wrong over these last few years.
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Comment on Dox with Grok in ~tech
papasquat Link ParentHah, no, that would be interesting though. It's government-adjacent.Hah, no, that would be interesting though. It's government-adjacent.
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Comment on I don’t know if my software engineering job will still exist in ten years in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentYeah, it could be feasible. When mm-wave scanners were first deployed, one of their major criticisms was that it basically gives screners a full, 3d, nude image of the person being scanned, which...An example of a task that might be automated, assuming the vision models are good enough, is screening carry-on luggage
Yeah, it could be feasible. When mm-wave scanners were first deployed, one of their major criticisms was that it basically gives screners a full, 3d, nude image of the person being scanned, which a lot of people obviously had a problem with. Since then, manufacturers have mostly replaced those systems with ones that use computer vision to detect the presence of contraband without giving the screners the image.
I imagine you could do something similar with bag screening one day. The only issue is that bag screening images are much more complex. They're full 3d, transparent images that are generated with CT scanners, and operators can rotate, zoom, and dive into those images. I think there are manufacturers doing significant computer vision work with them to do things like detect explosive liquids versus water based on the refraction patterns of X-rays, but I imagine the tech isn't quite robust enough to be fully automated quite yet.
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Comment on Dox with Grok in ~tech
papasquat LinkI can't help but think that you may have taken the wrong lesson from this. One of the great things about the internet is that it enables people to speak freely. (Also one of the dangerous things...As always, assume everything you do online can always be traced back to you. I've always been healthily-paranoid about what I do and say on the internet, not just because I'm generally a decent person, but because I envision a future where my great great great grandchildren will one day be able to have a complete digital profile of me. I don't want to disappoint them!
I can't help but think that you may have taken the wrong lesson from this. One of the great things about the internet is that it enables people to speak freely. (Also one of the dangerous things about it, but I still think it's overall a net good). I'd be concerned that the idea that the correct way to use the Internet is to never express any opinion that isn't approved by whatever majority is currently in power in larger society. That idea would have a major chilling effect when it comes to candid discussion, especially for people who live in places with oppressive, authoritarian surveillance state apperatus, or people who express opinions that extremist violent groups disagree with.
For me, I work in an environment where saying something as simple as "trans people should be protected and are victims, not predators" linked to my real name would be a serious risk to my livelihood, so I can never express that opinion if I want to keep my job. Saying that I, or no one else can ever express that opinion anywhere without it being linked back to our real identities would have a serious detrimental effect on public perception on trans rights, for instance.
I think it's a better idea to preserve anonymity on the internet by using the same tried and true opsec measures we've always told people; don't share specific personal information that can be used to narrow down your identity, fudge key details now and then, and I think most importantly for this type of threat, do away with long-lived psuedo-anonymous accounts, because sooner or later you'll have a lapse of judgement and with enough of those, someone can use a tool like this with pretty reasonable certainty to discover who you are.
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Comment on I don’t know if my software engineering job will still exist in ten years in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentModern advanced autopilot systems have actually proliferated down to general aviation at this point as well. Garmin's autoland is probably the market leader in that sector. Here's a news story...Modern advanced autopilot systems have actually proliferated down to general aviation at this point as well. Garmin's autoland is probably the market leader in that sector.
Here's a news story about the system automatically landing a small dual engine turboprop aafter a pilot triggered it when he lost comms with an airport tower. New jetliners are all equipped with the technology and use it routinely for landing in poor visibility.
The ground equipment you're referring to is probably ILS or MLS, which send signals to the aircraft detailing their alignment to the runway. Human pilots use this information as well to aid in landing.
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Comment on What did you do this week (and weekend)? in ~talk
papasquat Link ParentWow, bold of you to admit your situation. Sorry you're going through that, and culturally, I think people in your situation, especially men, have become very unfairly derided in recent years by...Wow, bold of you to admit your situation. Sorry you're going through that, and culturally, I think people in your situation, especially men, have become very unfairly derided in recent years by popular perception. The justification being that homophobia is over now so just come out already. I think that, apart from being totally inaccurate, ignores a whole ton of complexities about people's specific situation, culture, family, and marriage.
Best of luck to you, I really hope you can find a therapist and a solution that works for you and your wife.
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Comment on What did you do this week (and weekend)? in ~talk
papasquat LinkI've gotten into buying little memey EDC tools on the internet despite thinking that the whole "hobby" is stupid and cringey. I can't imagine anything more embarrassing than middle aged men...I've gotten into buying little memey EDC tools on the internet despite thinking that the whole "hobby" is stupid and cringey.
I can't imagine anything more embarrassing than middle aged men posting their "pocket dumps" and expecting everyone to believe they carry 3 knives, a wrench, pliers, a multi tool, flashlight, battery bank, a gun with two extra magazines, ratchet set, lockpicks and so on with them every day at their job as an IT guy. The whole thing is everyone living out this post apocalypse mcguyver fantasy where on a daily basis they have to fix a power distribution system, some vital engine, Bushcraft a survival shelter and 3 other things that require them to carry around all that junk.
That said... Cool little screwdrivers, flashlights, pliers and ratchets are way too fun to buy and play with.
I got what's affectionatrly called the harbor freight "meme tool" over the weekend and I have to admit, it's very cool. I justified my purchase by using it and it alone to completely disassemble and reassemble my drone to fix a few little niggling issues I'd been meaning to fix for a while, then throwing the kit into my drone bag where it replaced a handful of individual tools I used to carry around for field repairs.
I still feel like a cringe lord having all of these dumb little tools, but I mostly keep them in my backpack when I go to work. I have yet to use them while out and about and if I had to predict how often I will, I'd say maybe three times a year. It's mostly just retail therapy for men, myself included.
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Comment on Iran war spreading economic damage far beyond oil and gas markets in ~finance
papasquat Link ParentWe've for years had black and white proof of extramarital affairs with hush money, felony convictions for fraud, impeachments, and proof of a very close relationship and collusion with a known...We've for years had black and white proof of extramarital affairs with hush money, felony convictions for fraud, impeachments, and proof of a very close relationship and collusion with a known pedophile sex trafficker along with very good evidence for illicit sex facilitated by him.
Serious question, what would kompromat even consist of against trump? I literally cannot think of any material that could be released about him that would hurt him at this point, or that he would fear being released. At the absolute worst, he'd call it AI and fake news, then start another war to blare it out in the news cycle and move on with his day.
I'm sorry to say that in light of that, Trump being a controlled asset is a theory that's completely fallen apart. He's just a regular run of the mill egotistical dictator.
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Comment on I don’t know if my software engineering job will still exist in ten years in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentI really, really don't think it ever can, regardless of how good the models get. Even if the models get to 99.9% accuracy, a large company is going to be totally negligent by not keeping humans in...It doesn't seem as if the human component is ready to disappear yet. I hope (for my own sake) that it may never.
I really, really don't think it ever can, regardless of how good the models get. Even if the models get to 99.9% accuracy, a large company is going to be totally negligent by not keeping humans in the loop doing code review, which, at that point, you might as well have them inserted into all stages of software development. Even if they don't actually have to do much, the reason you have them there is accountability.
I think of it like another area where automation has gotten extremely good, and has been for years; aviation.
Autopilots on airplanes, for those that don't know, are ridiculously sophisticated nowadays. They're capable of automatically handling just about every aspect of a normal flight, from takeoff, to initial climb, to cruising, to final approach, and landing.
Theoretically, an airline doesn't actually need pilots for 99.99% of flying. You could put passengers on a gigantic drone, and it would work just fine the vast majority of the time.
There would of course, be times when it fails though. If you don't have a human onboard react to those edge cases, hundreds of people die, your airline goes out of business, and hopefully the NTSB investigation gets your board and executive team put in jail for manslaughter due to gross negligence.
Saving the hundreds of millions a year on pilot salaries isn't worth that to airlines.
If your tech company is big enough, the stakes may not be quite that high, but they're still pretty damn high. Having no one at the wheel able to make decisions means that there's no one accountable when something goes wrong. A trillion dollar company isn't willing to accept "the AI fucked up, sorry" when hundreds of millions of subscribers have their account info deleted, or get shown porn accidentally, or a catastrophic problem takes their platform down for a week.
I think it's a valid concern for smaller, very low stakes coding jobs, but for big SWE roles, I doubt they ever go away.
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Comment on Can coding agents relicense open source through a “clean room” implementation of code? in ~comp
papasquat Link ParentI don't understand how it could possibly be argued that it could. A human being who has seen the original implementation cannot produce a legally defensible clean room implementation. How could...More complicated: Claude itself was very likely trained on chardet as part of its enormous quantity of training data—though we have no way of confirming this for sure. Can a model trained on a codebase produce a morally or legally defensible clean-room implementation?
I don't understand how it could possibly be argued that it could. A human being who has seen the original implementation cannot produce a legally defensible clean room implementation. How could you possibly argue that a machine explicitly designed to encode the original training data within its weights as accurately as possible that has been trained on the original implementation is designing something novel?
At that point, what's the difference between using an LLM and just photocopying the source code?
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Comment on The average US college student is illiterate in ~life
papasquat Link ParentI think urban development patterns contribute to this a lot as well, more than is often talked about. If your friends live a 45 minute drive away from you, you're not likely to meet up with them...I think urban development patterns contribute to this a lot as well, more than is often talked about.
If your friends live a 45 minute drive away from you, you're not likely to meet up with them on weeknights. If your friends are your neighbors, it's not a huge investment to go to their place for 20 minutes after work, or spend a couple hours getting a beer or playing board games rather than going home to play video games with total strangers.
We pay a huge social opportunity cost in time by living in disconnected suburbs and exurbs, or cities with horrible transit options and development patterns.
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Comment on The average US college student is illiterate in ~life
papasquat Link ParentI don't think this is exclusive to younger generations unfortunately. I'm in my late 30s, and I'm married now, but was dating as recently as four years ago, and had to go through this whole...I don't think this is exclusive to younger generations unfortunately. I'm in my late 30s, and I'm married now, but was dating as recently as four years ago, and had to go through this whole charade a few times.
I've been in situations where we were going on dates, sexually exclusive, and talking to each other all the time, but we weren't "in a relationship", apparently. The thing makes no sense. Besides the fact that we were, objectively, in a relationship (I'm "in a relationship" with my doctor, my parents, my coworkers, and anyone else I interact with on a regular basis, by definition), even in the colloquial usage, I was in a romantic, exclusive relationship.
I think a lot of people prop romantic "relationships" as being a much bigger deal than they are. If we're not married, I can just decide one day it doesn't work for me and never talk to you again, and have no further legal obligations to you. It's not a big deal if you ask someone out, date for three weeks, figure out you don't like them then dump them.
People fear them because they think a relationship is like a mini marriage, but it isn't at all.
The whole "talking=fucking" thing is also equally irritating and confusing, but that's probably the entire point of it. My question was always... what if you are actually just talking to someone now and then and haven't had sex?
The whole exercise of courtship feels like it's just driven by fear and overanalysis, rather than fun now.
Gotcha, interesting (and pretty depressing) article. I don't think I've ever heard the word used that way.
I think my main descriptor of the type of person being described as "agentic" would instead be "impulsive".