skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on Forecast accurately predicting an unusual monsoon season reached thirty-eight million farmers in ~tech

    skybrian
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    From the press release: ... ... ... ... There is also a Wall Street Journal article, but it says pretty much the same thing.

    From the press release:

    Thirty-eight million farmers across India received forecasts this summer accurately predicting the start of the rainy season. This forecast, powered by artificial intelligence (AI), was tailored to farmers’ needs, providing them with advance prediction of the rainy season earlier than ever before—up to four weeks ahead of the rain. This represents a paradigm shift for smallholder farmers who had to make important farming decisions like what, how much, and when to plant without this information.

    ...

    The Indian Ministry partnered with an international team of researchers to select its forecast. The Human-Centered Weather Forecasts Initiative at the University of Chicago Institute for Climate and Sustainable Growth led the effort to evaluate forecasting models, recruiting researchers from IIT Bombay, IISc Bangalore, and the University of California, Berkeley. They found that Google’s Neural GCM model and the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts’ (ECMWF) Artificial Intelligence Forecasting System (AIFS) best predicted the monsoon. The research team then created a blended model which combined these with the India Meteorological Departments, historical rainfall observations to maximize the accuracy of the forecast. The effort was partially supported by catalytic funding from AIM for Scale, a global initiative backed by the Gates Foundation and the United Arab Emirates, which works to scale up evidenced-backed, cost-effective agricultural innovations for the benefit of farmers in low- and middle-income countries.

    ...

    This proved to be an important year for the Ministry to begin this effort. Typically, the Indian summer monsoon begins over southern India in June—the government declares the monsoon season has started—and the monsoon advances smoothly northward, bringing sustained rainfall to most of the country by July. This year, however, the monsoon was unusual. It hit the southern part of India earlier, leading most to expect an early monsoon season to come to their various communities. The monsoon progressed for about a week, and then it stopped for close to three weeks before moving again. The new AI-based forecast predicted that pause—and farmers were paying attention.

    ...

    “We have been going through an AI-driven revolution since 2022 and AI models have shown promise for many one- to two-week forecasting applications. But their ability to predict complex phenomena—like the monsoon—was unclear, and frankly, unexpected,” says Pedram Hassanzadeh, Associate Professor at UChicago, who works on climate dynamics and AI, and is a co-director of the Initiative.

    ...

    AI models are not only more accurate but also skip the need for supercomputers for forecast generation, according to Mayank Gupta, a researcher at the Human-Centered Weather Forecasts Initiative. He says, “They can be run on desktops and can be tuned to the specific weather conditions and needs of the citizens on the ground—all at a fraction of the cost and time. AI offers a huge opportunity for technological leapfrogging in forecasting, proving already to be more accurate for many types of weather forecast, and able to be easily expanded to everyone.”

    There is also a Wall Street Journal article, but it says pretty much the same thing.

    2 votes

  3. Comment on United Kingdom, Australia and Canada officially recognize a Palestinian state in ~society

    skybrian
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    According to this article, UK recognition means very little for ordinary Palestinians as far as the UK is concerned: What does recognising Palestine as a state actually mean? (The Independent) I...

    According to this article, UK recognition means very little for ordinary Palestinians as far as the UK is concerned:

    What does recognising Palestine as a state actually mean? (The Independent)

    Sir Vincent Fean, a former British consul general to Jerusalem and now a trustee of the charity Britain Palestine Project, explained that recognition of Palestine as a state would mean that if Palestinian passports were issued, they would subsequently be recognised by the UK as passports of a state.

    However, Sir Vincent said Palestinian statehood would not affect the UK’s refugee system.

    “Does it impact the tally of refugees coming to the UK? No,” he said. This is because he expects the visa regime the UK currently has with Palestine – where travel is only allowed between the two after a successful visa application – will continue.

    He added that Palestinian statehood “wouldn’t particularly change the right of return for Palestinians to their homeland”. He said this was a “long-standing right”, although it would require negotiation with Israel.

    I asked ChatGPT to find similar articles for Canada and Australia, and it was unable to find any.

    3 votes

  4. Comment on United Kingdom, Australia and Canada officially recognize a Palestinian state in ~society

    skybrian
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    I don't see how the consequences of October 7 can be seen as anything other than a catastrophe for Palestinians, or even for Hamas. If they get some minor political gains, it's hardly worth the...

    I don't see how the consequences of October 7 can be seen as anything other than a catastrophe for Palestinians, or even for Hamas. If they get some minor political gains, it's hardly worth the losses. Unless it's using the logic of a suicide bomber, where they don't care if they die if they can take someone else out.

  5. Comment on "House from hell” — How America’s largest homebuilders shift the cost of shoddy construction to buyers in ~finance

    skybrian
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    I think that's different from hiring your own inspector when buying a house? Then they're working for you and it's in their interest to point out anything they see. When buying a house in...

    I think that's different from hiring your own inspector when buying a house? Then they're working for you and it's in their interest to point out anything they see.

    When buying a house in California, there is a lot of paperwork to sign with various disclosures including a home inspection report (paid for by the seller) that's pretty informative. Also warnings about waiving contingencies, one of which is making the purchase contingent on your own inspection.

    The contingencies might get waived if you're in a bidding war, though.

    I can certainly see how people could be snowed into not getting an inspection despite all the warnings. Not sure what else could be done other than making getting your own inspection legally required.

    The cost of getting an inspection is a trivial amount of money compared to buying a house. I don't think it's that sort of regulation that makes the cost of housing go up. Instead it's things like building codes and zoning that reduce supply.

    1 vote

  6. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of September 15 in ~society

    skybrian
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    My understanding is that they avoided ruling on birthright citizenship so far, instead ruling against nationwide injunctions without taking it up. With tariffs, I don't see that particular move...

    My understanding is that they avoided ruling on birthright citizenship so far, instead ruling against nationwide injunctions without taking it up.

    With tariffs, I don't see that particular move being available, but maybe there are others? If they don't take it up at all then Trump loses.

    3 votes

  7. Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of September 15 in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    The Supreme Court has often been avoiding directly confronting Trump, but they're going to have to rule on tariffs soon, and that's going to be tough. I think that's a bright-line test: are they...

    The Supreme Court has often been avoiding directly confronting Trump, but they're going to have to rule on tariffs soon, and that's going to be tough. I think that's a bright-line test: are they going to stand up to Trump, perhaps provoking a constitutional crisis, or lose all credibility?

    But perhaps there's a way to fudge this that I don't see.

    3 votes

  8. Comment on United Kingdom, Australia and Canada officially recognize a Palestinian state in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    That sounds interesting. What international rights will Palestinians get? Any better articles?

    That sounds interesting. What international rights will Palestinians get? Any better articles?

    4 votes

  9. Comment on Tiny co-living spaces are popping up across New York. Local communities see them as ‘harbingers of gentrification’. in ~life

    skybrian
    (edited )
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    These days “gentrification” means “the neighborhood becomes more desirable and rents go up.” Nothing to do with gentry. I imagine these co-ops wouldn’t affect property values much by themselves,...

    These days “gentrification” means “the neighborhood becomes more desirable and rents go up.” Nothing to do with gentry.

    I imagine these co-ops wouldn’t affect property values much by themselves, but local businesses (particularly restaurants) will have a few more customers.

    It’s ironic that it’s replacing a jazz club because younger people are more likely to go out to see entertainment. Too late for that club I guess?

    16 votes

  10. Comment on Tiny co-living spaces are popping up across New York. Local communities see them as ‘harbingers of gentrification’. in ~life

    skybrian
    (edited )
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    From the article: … … It seems like the high-end equivalent of boarding houses? They’re attracting opposition like boarding houses did. Since the residents are presumably pretty well-behaved, they...

    From the article:

    Co-living housing is similar to a college dormitory, where residents share a communal kitchen, bathroom and living spaces.

    While renters are drawn in by the promise of a built-in community, flexible leases and, in some cases, all-inclusive rent, some long-time dwellers of the neighborhoods they land in see fewer benefits. Co-living “is not something that is contributing to the longterm health and structure of the community”, added Lazur.

    Crown 120 was eventually approved regardless. Its opening is one of many such sites across New York City, where co-living has been rapidly expanding as a housing alternative for gen Z and younger millennial renters. The encroachment of these developments into traditionally working-class neighborhoods like Crown Heights, Bedford-Stuyvesant and Bushwick has fueled anger among residents who fear displacement and loss.

    “These houses are really designed to create connections for our members,” Elisa Richou, Cohabs’ US head of partnerships and brand growth, said. “New York City can be overwhelming, but beautiful and magical sometimes and we really just wanted to create a safe space.”

    Within five years of Cohabs’ New York debut, they developed 23 houses, each fitted with luxury amenities like a gym and cinema room. Their members are mainly younger professionals in their 20s and typically from overseas, looking to start a new chapter of their lives.

    …

    Residents at Cohabs sites do not typically stick around for long. Its average members’ stay is 11 months, according to Richou.

    …

    Despite New York’s net housing stock growing by 60,000 additional units in two years, it’s barely meeting demand, with nearly 275,000 new households. The city’s vacancy rate also dropped from 4.54% to 1.4%, the lowest recorded since 1968, according to Housing Preservation and Development.

    It seems like the high-end equivalent of boarding houses? They’re attracting opposition like boarding houses did. Since the residents are presumably pretty well-behaved, they have to reach for different complaints like “not from here” and “gentrification.”

    22 votes

  12. Comment on United Kingdom, Australia and Canada officially recognize a Palestinian state in ~society

    skybrian
    (edited )
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    I don’t see how any Palestinians will be saved by these symbolic gestures. How will this stop Israel? How many refugees will these countries take in? Compare with Ukraine. I don’t recommend...

    I don’t see how any Palestinians will be saved by these symbolic gestures. How will this stop Israel? How many refugees will these countries take in?

    Compare with Ukraine. I don’t recommend sending arms to Hamas like we do to the Ukrainians, but since that’s out, taking in refugees seems like the best thing to do.

    7 votes

  13. Comment on Via, Waymo team up to bring robotaxis to public transit systems in ~transport

    skybrian
    Link
    https://archive.is/7OqTH From the article:

    https://archive.is/7OqTH

    From the article:

    The partnership will launch this fall in Chandler, Ariz., which already partners with Via to offer shared, on-demand rides around a designated zone for a set price of $2 a ride. The service will now include Waymo vehicles among Via’s existing fleet of vans.

    Via’s software is geared toward municipalities and transit agencies, as well as universities and companies with large campuses, looking to operate their transportation systems more efficiently with technology that designs transit routes and schedules.

    It currently has close to 700 customers, about a fifth of which also enlist its help to actually operate those networks, with the company providing vans, drivers, marketing support or call centers. Some of those clients—especially those with sparse downtowns like Chandler, where traditional bus routes can be inefficient—use Via to offer shared, on-demand rides as part of their public transit.

    Via expects that incorporating Waymo into those services will eventually bring down costs, helping its government clients to use taxpayer dollars more effectively, Chief Executive Daniel Ramot said. Public transit systems, and local governments in general, are often late to benefit from advanced technology, he added.

    2 votes

  15. Comment on Amazon to end commingling program after years of complaints from brands and sellers in ~finance

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    Amazon revealed at its annual Accelerate seller conference in Seattle that it is shutting down its long-running “commingling” program — a move that drew louder applause from sellers than any other update of the morning.

    The decision marks the end of a controversial practice in which Amazon pooled identical items from different sellers under one barcode. The system, intended to speed deliveries and save warehouse space, had also allowed counterfeit or expired goods to be mixed in with authentic ones, according to The Wall Street Journal. For years, brands complained that commingling made it difficult to trace problems back to specific sellers and left their reputations vulnerable when customers received knockoffs. In 2013, Johnson & Johnson temporarily pulled many of its consumer products from Amazon, arguing the retailer wasn’t doing enough to curb third-party sales of damaged or expired goods.

    By ending commingling, Amazon is signaling a stronger commitment to protecting brands on its marketplace, while further distancing itself from resellers. The announcement underscores the company’s ongoing strategy to prioritize trusted brand relationships — evident in moves like its revived wholesale partnership with Nike — while responding to mounting seller and consumer frustration over counterfeit risks.

    During Wednesday’s presentation in Seattle, Amazon executives said the economics of commingling no longer worked. With the company’s logistics network now capable of storing products closer to customers, the speed advantage of pooled inventory has diminished. At the same time, Amazon estimated brand owners spent $600 million in the past year alone through re-stickering products, the process of placing new labels or barcodes over existing ones on products.

    23 votes

  17. Comment on Offbeat Fridays – The thread where offbeat headlines become front page news in ~news

  18. Comment on ‘Grue jay’ hybrid spotted in Texas in ~enviro

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    In a recent Ecology and Evolution paper, biologists at the University of Texas at Austin describe the odd jay in more detail, explaining how the blue and green jays’ ranges might have crossed for this hybrid bird to exist. According to their analysis, green jays—a tropical bird found in Central America—have been migrating farther north as a result of temperature changes. Eventually, their paths crossed with blue jays, a temperate species common in the Eastern U.S. that had shifted their range west.

    “We think it’s the first observed vertebrate that’s hybridized as a result of two species both expanding their ranges due, at least in part, to climate change,” Brian Stokes, study lead author and a postdoctoral student at The University of Texas at Austin, said in a statement.

    7 votes

  20. Comment on Dark patterns killed my wife's Windows 11 installation in ~tech

    skybrian
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    For someone in a similar situation who isn't working, I think a Chromebook makes a lot of sense. (If they're working, they might need Windows for something.)

    For someone in a similar situation who isn't working, I think a Chromebook makes a lot of sense. (If they're working, they might need Windows for something.)

    11 votes