skybrian's recent activity
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Comment on Sudan's biggest refugee camp was already struck with famine. Now it's being shelled in ~news
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Comment on Sudan's biggest refugee camp was already struck with famine. Now it's being shelled in ~news
skybrian Link ParentIt’s a long way from other countries. There are apparently refugees from Sudan in Egypt and Chad, but most haven’t left Sudan. Contrast with how many Syrian and Libyan refugees reached other...It’s a long way from other countries. There are apparently refugees from Sudan in Egypt and Chad, but most haven’t left Sudan. Contrast with how many Syrian and Libyan refugees reached other countries.
No reason for proxy wars, either.
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Comment on Sudan's biggest refugee camp was already struck with famine. Now it's being shelled in ~news
skybrian LinkFrom the article: ... ... ... ...From the article:
Sudan's largest refugee camp — which hosts at least half a million people, thousands of whom are suffering from famine — has been attacked by artillery shelling almost daily for two weeks. More than 80 people have been killed and close to 400 injured in the Zamzam camp in Sudan's besieged western region of Darfur, according to local media.
Displaced people residing in the camp and aid groups including Doctors Without Borders (MSF) have blamed the constant shelling on the Rapid Support Forces or RSF, the Sudanese paramilitary group locked in a brutal civil war with Sudan's army since April 2023.
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Although it is overshadowed by wars in the Middle East and Ukraine, Sudan's 20-month conflict has killed as many as 150,000 people, according to some estimates. It has led to the world's worst displacement crisis, affecting 1 in 5 of the country's prewar population.
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Sudan is meanwhile facing unprecedented levels of hunger, with the United Nations saying 26 million people are at "crisis levels." The Zamzam camp is the only place in the world where famine has been officially declared.
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Before last year, 120,000 people resided in the Zamzam camp. Since then, its population has soared to at least 500,000, with potentially up to a million people, the aid group Relief International says. Most of those killed and injured in the camp have been victims of shelling, aid groups and experts investigating the attacks say. Doctors have treated children as young as four years old for gunshot wounds and trauma.
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Last week, the same doctor fled the shelling in Zamzam to El Fasher, the last major city in the Darfur region not under the control of the RSF. It is home to nearly 1 million people. The attacks on Zamzam are an extension of a prolonged siege on El Fasher, most of whose perimeter RSF fighters have blockaded for several months. The city's sole functioning hospital has been repeatedly attacked, most recently by a drone strike blamed on the RSF, killing at least nine people.
The assault on the region has led thousands to flee both El Fasher and Zamzam, attempting perilous journeys on foot, risking being caught in the conflict to reach safer towns more than 40 miles away. But most are effectively trapped, as RSF forces are stationed on most major roads.
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Sudan's biggest refugee camp was already struck with famine. Now it's being shelled
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Comment on o3 - wow in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentNuclear energy is competing against all other forms of energy production. It has some advantages, but so do competitors. If geothermal turns out to be big, there's no fuel, no waste, and it would...Nuclear energy is competing against all other forms of energy production. It has some advantages, but so do competitors. If geothermal turns out to be big, there's no fuel, no waste, and it would be reliable, not depending on the weather. What advantages would nuclear power have?
Meanwhile, solar is extremely cheap, and batteries are getting better.
It's hard to pick winners in energy, but I'd bet on cheaper and on faster iteration, so that companies can learn how to bring costs down faster.
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Comment on After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed in ~finance
skybrian LinkFrom the article: ... ... ... ...From the article:
By 2014 or 2015, I no longer saw much hope for bitcoin as a mainstream payments system or generally-accepted medium-of-exchange. "For any medium of exchange to displace another as a means for buying stuff, users need come out ahead. And this isn't happening with bitcoin," I wrote in a 2015 post entitled Why bitcoin has failed to achieve liftoff as a medium of exchange, pointing to the many costs of making bitcoin payments, including commissions, setup costs, and the inconveniences of volatility.
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Bitcoin's deficiencies got me thinking very early on about how to create bitcoin-inspired alternatives. By late 2012 I was already thinking about stablecoins [...]
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If bitcoins weren't like bank deposits or cash, how should we treat them from a personal finance perspective? Feel free to play bitcoin, I wrote in late 2018, but do so in moderation, just like you would if you went to Vegas. "Remember, it's just a game."
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There is a growing effort to arm-twist the rest of society into joining in by having governments acquire bitcoins, in the U.S.'s case a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. The U.S. government has never entered the World Series of Poker. Nor has it gone to Vegas to bet billions to tax payer funds on roulette or built a strategic Powerball ticket reserve, but it appears to be genuinely entertaining the idea of rolling the dice on Bitcoin.
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Although I never wanted to ban Bitcoin, I can't help but wonder whether a prohibition wouldn't have been the better policy back in 2013 or 2014 given the new bitcoin-by-force path that advocates are pushing it towards. But it's probably too late for that; the coin is already out of the bag. All I can hope is that my long history of writing on the topic might persuade a few readers that forcing others to play the game you love is not fair game.
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After twelve years of writing about bitcoin, here's how my thinking has changed
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Comment on o3 - wow in ~tech
skybrian Link ParentI think it's good to be skeptical, but that's going a bit far. This was an outside benchmark. I doubt it would be possible to cheat in such a simple way, and I doubt OpenAI could have that level...I think it's good to be skeptical, but that's going a bit far. This was an outside benchmark. I doubt it would be possible to cheat in such a simple way, and I doubt OpenAI could have that level of corruption without someone leaking about it. The many machine learning researchers that OpenAI has hired probably don't think of themselves as cheating?
But we've often seen with scientific research that there are many ways to subtly fool yourself. Also, AI algorithms will use whatever shortcuts they can find.
The hype part tends to be describing research results to public and discussing their significance. Altman is a hype machine all by himself. The "12 days of OpenAI" thing is a publicity campaign. There are many outside influencers that will feed the hype, spreading the news far and wide, blogging and making videos.
You can think of this as fulfilling a demand - people want to talk about dramatic news.
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Comment on o3 - wow in ~tech
skybrian (edited )LinkTo deflate the hype a bit, this is an impractical result on a benchmark that's not necessarily measuring what you and I would care about. And it seems they brute-forced it. But I expect that...To deflate the hype a bit, this is an impractical result on a benchmark that's not necessarily measuring what you and I would care about. And it seems they brute-forced it.
But I expect that having done it at all, efficiency will improve. There is a trend in AI of prices declining dramatically.
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Comment on Why I am pursuing a life, professionally and personally, of Christian Virtue in ~humanities
skybrian Link ParentI'm slowly reading a history of the Eastern Roman empire and, after Constantine, much of the history seems to be of bitter theological disputes between bishops from different cities. It seems like...I'm slowly reading a history of the Eastern Roman empire and, after Constantine, much of the history seems to be of bitter theological disputes between bishops from different cities. It seems like disunity started very early. Religious tolerance hadn't been invented yet.
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Comment on Man who ran secret Chinese ‘police station’ to monitor and harass US-based dissidents pleads guilty in New York in ~society
skybrian LinkFrom the article:From the article:
Breon Peace, the top federal prosecutor in Brooklyn, said at the time of the arrests that China was involved in setting up secret police posts in countries around the world.
The two men set up the office in Manhattan’s Chinatown at the behest of the Fuzhou branch of the Ministry of Public Security, ostensibly to offer services like Chinese driver’s license renewals, according to Peace.
But in fact their main job was to help track down and harass fugitive Chinese dissidents, US officials said.
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Man who ran secret Chinese ‘police station’ to monitor and harass US-based dissidents pleads guilty in New York
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Revisiting stereotype threat
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Comment on Louisiana forbids public health workers from promoting COVID, flu and mpox shots in ~health
skybrian LinkFrom the article: ...From the article:
NPR has confirmed the policy was discussed at this meeting, and at two other meetings held within the department's Office of Public Health, on Oct. 3 and Nov. 21, through interviews with four employees at the Department of Health, which employs more than 6,500 people and is the state's largest agency.
According to the employees, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because they fear losing their jobs or other forms of retaliation, the policy would be implemented quietly and would not be put in writing.
Staffers were also told that it applies to every aspect of the health department's work: Employees could not send out press releases, give interviews, hold vaccine events, give presentations or create social media posts encouraging the public to get the vaccines. They also could not put up signs at the department's clinics that COVID, flu or mpox vaccines were available on site.
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This year, instead of flu vaccine events, the medical directors were told to pivot to Narcan giveaways.
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Louisiana forbids public health workers from promoting COVID, flu and mpox shots
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Comment on Copyright abuse is getting Luigi Mangione merch removed from the internet – artists, merch sellers, and journalists making and posting Luigi media have become the targets of bogus DMCA claims in ~tech
skybrian Link Parent"All nonviolent methods have been exhausted" - really? To do what?"All nonviolent methods have been exhausted" - really? To do what?
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Comment on Willow - Google's latest quantum chip in ~tech
skybrian (edited )Link ParentI'm no expert, but I see this as a snail race: we are going to be seeing announcements about progress in quantum computing for years to come, but it won't be practical. Meanwhile, the world is...I'm no expert, but I see this as a snail race: we are going to be seeing announcements about progress in quantum computing for years to come, but it won't be practical. Meanwhile, the world is slowly moving to post-quantum cryptography.
Even when it's something that runs in a data center that you could theoretically buy, the algorithms that can be sped up by quantum computing are pretty specialized and my guess is that most organizations won't have a need to run jobs on these computers?
(That is, organizations other than governments cracking data encrypted with obsolete cryptography.)
So I see it as very prestigious research, but it doesn't seem much like AI in its impact on the world.
(Unless, of course, there's some important algorithm I hadn't heard of.)
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Comment on US Joe Biden administration grants California waiver to ban gas car sales in 2035 in ~transport
skybrian Link ParentYes, tobacco companies are bad, and I’m sure that most decisions to start smoking aren’t reasoned choices. (Most choices are not reasoned choices.) It’s still not someone else making the decision...Yes, tobacco companies are bad, and I’m sure that most decisions to start smoking aren’t reasoned choices. (Most choices are not reasoned choices.)
It’s still not someone else making the decision for you when a kid makes bad choices, even if they had bad influences.
Also, quitting smoking is hard, but it seems like switching from smoking to vapes isn’t all that hard? Even if we consider it falling into a trap, remaining trapped for decades is a choice when there’s a well-known way out.
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Comment on US Joe Biden administration grants California waiver to ban gas car sales in 2035 in ~transport
skybrian Link ParentI'm not sure "making a decision for someone else" adequately describes how the tobacco industry works. Growers and manufacturers make a decision to sell a product. Distributors and retailers make...I'm not sure "making a decision for someone else" adequately describes how the tobacco industry works. Growers and manufacturers make a decision to sell a product. Distributors and retailers make decisions to buy and sell things. Consumers make decisions about what to buy. This is a cooperative effort.
All the people involved are responsible for participating. Although, some people might find it easier to quit this game than others. Vapes work for some.
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Comment on What is wrong with our thoughts? A neo-positivist credo. in ~humanities
skybrian Link ParentThis is a book except that I read because it was linked from an anti-philosophy blog post, but I'm not familiar with the author. I thought it was pretty funny. Maybe a less grandiose conclusion...This is a book except that I read because it was linked from an anti-philosophy blog post, but I'm not familiar with the author. I thought it was pretty funny.
Maybe a less grandiose conclusion would be that famous philosophers wrote nonsense sometimes?
Iran is treating it as a proxy war. US support for Israel is more complicated, but has similar effects. And who knows where else Hamas gets money from?
There is lots of Palestinian and Israeli propaganda because they care about media coverage and want to influence it. Outside support matters there. I don’t think it does in Sudan?