skybrian's recent activity

  1. Comment on Google must double AI serving capacity every 6 months to meet demand in ~tech

    skybrian
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    My understanding is that when doing inference, these large systems can run multiple queries at once in the same batch to improve efficiency. However, how big these batches typically are for the...

    My understanding is that when doing inference, these large systems can run multiple queries at once in the same batch to improve efficiency. However, how big these batches typically are for the major AI labs is unknown.

  3. Comment on A field guide to writing styles in ~humanities

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article:

    From the article:

    For Thomas and Turner, a mature writing style is defined by making a principled choice on a small number of nontrivial central issues: truth, presentation, cast, scene, and the intersection of thought & language.

    They present 8 writing styles: classic, reflexive, practical, plain, contemplative, romantic, prophetic, and oratorical.

    The book argues for what they call the classic style, and teaches you how to write classically. While no doubt useful for many readers, my extended review will take a different approach. Rather than championing one approach, I’ll inhabit each style on its own terms, with greater focus on the more common styles in contemporary writing, before weighing their respective strengths and limitations, particularly when it comes to nonfiction internet writing.

    2 votes

  5. Comment on Google must double AI serving capacity every 6 months to meet demand in ~tech

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    The future is hard to predict, but I don't think today's rate of growth in AI usage will keep doubling for five years and don't take that 1000x projection seriously. It's only a model....

    The future is hard to predict, but I don't think today's rate of growth in AI usage will keep doubling for five years and don't take that 1000x projection seriously. It's only a model. Hockey-stick graphs tend to turn into S-curves.

    For a historical comparison, Internet usage in the US was doubling until 1996 or so, but after that, growth was more linear.

    2 votes

  6. Comment on California Forever clears first hurdle in Suisun City annexation in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    A positive example would make it easier to raise funds, but I doubt it would reduce local political opposition much, and it would be harder to buy land without people guessing why.

    A positive example would make it easier to raise funds, but I doubt it would reduce local political opposition much, and it would be harder to buy land without people guessing why.

  7. Comment on California Forever clears first hurdle in Suisun City annexation in ~society

    skybrian
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    It's not all that close, but it's not too far from the SF bay area and Sacramento. Presumably, it will be significantly more affordable than the bay area. But that only works if there are jobs....

    It's not all that close, but it's not too far from the SF bay area and Sacramento. Presumably, it will be significantly more affordable than the bay area. But that only works if there are jobs. There need to be anchor businesses. It would be have to be the sort of business that can convince people to move in order to work there. Perhaps businesses that need more land and infrastructure (provided by the investors) will find it attractive?

  8. Comment on Google must double AI serving capacity every 6 months to meet demand in ~tech

    skybrian
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    From the end of the article: Some Googlers are going to motivated to find ways to improve efficiency. It looks good at promotion time when you can multiply a 0.1% improvement by a very large...

    From the end of the article:

    This story is updated to more precisely reflect Amin Vahdat’s comments on the need to meet demand by both increasing capacity and improving efficiency.

    Some Googlers are going to motivated to find ways to improve efficiency. It looks good at promotion time when you can multiply a 0.1% improvement by a very large number to demonstrate a cost savings that's many times your salary. There's no physical law preventing better results using less computing power.

    Meanwhile, usage goes up. But with enough efficiency improvements, the cost of serving a lot more AI results might not be as expensive for Google as you'd expect. The efficiency improvements enable more growth with less capital costs and energy usage.

    3 votes

  9. Comment on Some people can't see mental images. The consequences are profound. in ~health.mental

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It sounds like it works out well for you, but are there any downsides?

    It sounds like it works out well for you, but are there any downsides?

    1 vote

  10. Comment on California Forever clears first hurdle in Suisun City annexation in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    If they succeed then maybe someone else will try, but it might also be a one-off, considering the huge amount of long-term investment needed and the risks. I think that’s taking speculation a bit...

    If they succeed then maybe someone else will try, but it might also be a one-off, considering the huge amount of long-term investment needed and the risks.

    I think that’s taking speculation a bit too far. Building a successful new city would itself be a tremendous achievement that benefits many thousands of people. That’s plenty of ambition.

  11. Comment on California Forever clears first hurdle in Suisun City annexation in ~society

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It wouldn’t on its own, but they also hope to attract businesses. That’s the difference between building a housing development and a city. It’s too far out to be a suburb.

    It wouldn’t on its own, but they also hope to attract businesses. That’s the difference between building a housing development and a city.

    It’s too far out to be a suburb.

  12. Comment on A lot at steak: US beef and cattle prices soar to record highs in ~food

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    It’s mostly not up to them. I’m sure a grocery store chain would be happy to take the extra profits if they happen to get a good deal on beef. Alternatively, they could lower their prices to try...

    It’s mostly not up to them. I’m sure a grocery store chain would be happy to take the extra profits if they happen to get a good deal on beef. Alternatively, they could lower their prices to try to gain market share, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they will.

    Market trends are bigger than any single business, unless it’s a monopoly.

    5 votes

  13. Comment on A lot at steak: US beef and cattle prices soar to record highs in ~food

    skybrian
    Link Parent
    This is tricky to judge because, as the link you shared tells us, McDonalds owns real estate but the restaurants are separate businesses run by franchises. The McDonalds corporation is mostly the...

    This is tricky to judge because, as the link you shared tells us, McDonalds owns real estate but the restaurants are separate businesses run by franchises. The McDonalds corporation is mostly the landlord.

    So food and wages aren’t a cost to McDonalds. They are costs for the franchise owner. Looks like franchises are estimated to have a 10-15% profit margin. But their rent and franchise fees are a cost of them and McDonalds profits come out of that. According to This article rent is 10-16%, there’s a royalty fee of 4-5% of sales, and an advertising fee of at least 4% of sales.

    This report suggests food costs for the franchise owner are about 25%.

    This suggests the McDonalds makes more money by opening new restaurants (with higher rents) and by increasing sales (since they get a percent of sales).

    6 votes

  14. Comment on Mexico, a country caught between mafias in ~society

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: … …

    From the article:

    Homicides and much of the high-impact crime rate are declining, a reason for celebration after more than 15 years of almost uninterrupted increases. Yet at the same time, a shadow is spreading: the shadow of extortion, a crime practiced by mafias for which authorities seem to have no answer. Where once drug production and trafficking dominated as the main criminal enterprise, extortion schemes are now taking over and becoming increasingly sophisticated.

    …

    According to information obtained by EL PAÍS, the criminals were asking for two pesos for every kilo of lemons picked and an additional two pesos for every kilo sold, an amount Bravo was trying to lower. The guild leader was also trying to get the criminals to allow them to pick lemons more than three days a week, a recent imposition used to try to control the market price of the citrus fruit. It was in this context that the extortionists murdered Bravo. The criminals reportedly lured him to a town near Apatzingán, killed him, and took his body back to the municipality where his office was located.

    …

    More than a criminal group, Los Viagra are in fact a family clan, one that grew in the wake of North America’s preferred security strategy: tracking down kingpin or crime bosses. The plan assumes that beheading criminal structures reduces their capacity. In reality, what has happened over the years is that, in Mexican regions like Michoacán, a myriad of criminal groups have emerged — often fighting one another — and have turned the economic relations of the societies they inhabit into a source of income. Drug trafficking has thus become a secondary option. Extortion is simpler than moving drugs: it requires no large logistical networks and can easily be disguised as part of the frictions of the productive economy.

    That is what happens in Michoacán, as well as in other states, where multiple criminal groups coexist, none able to fully dominate the others. In Guerrero, for instance, different armed actors rooted in distinct municipalities and regions are fighting for control. In these battles, they tap into legal markets — such as poultry production and sales, transportation, or public works — to finance themselves.

    As Dr. Beatriz Magaloni, coauthor of Living in Fear: The Dynamics of Extortion in Mexico’s Drug War, explains: “When drug-trafficking organizations control their territories, they can behave like benign bandits and offer help to their neighbors. But as these groups violently compete for control of territory and smuggling routes, they turn on citizens to extort them and extract resources.”

    The solution does not appear simple, because over time crime has become interwoven with the economy, creating complex networks that are difficult to untangle.

    6 votes

  17. Comment on A lot at steak: US beef and cattle prices soar to record highs in ~food

    skybrian
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    From the article, a month ago: ... ... That tariff was just repealed.

    From the article, a month ago:

    Ground beef prices hit a record high of $6.32 a pound in August, and beef prices were up 13.9% year-over-year according to the consumer price index, far outstripping overall inflation rise of 2.9%.

    Meanwhile, a culmination of years of low prices, rising costs to raise cattle, and years-long droughts that dried up grazing pasture caused cattle ranchers to slash their beef herds to the lowest level since 1951. As a result, CME Group live cattle futures prices recently rose to a high of $243.58 per hundredweight. (A hundredweight is equivalent to 100lbs.)

    There are several reasons for ranchers’ hesitancy, says David Anderson, livestock specialist at Texas A&M University. The last time cattle prices set a record in 2014, ranchers quickly bred more bovines, only to see prices collapse. Now he estimates cattle ranchers are making well-over $500 per head selling cattle and so far show little incentive to expand their herds.

    After several years of losing money, ranchers are grateful for the higher returns but many are gun shy to rebuild.

    ...

    Beef production has dipped further recently because the US closed the Mexican border to cattle imports to prevent the spread of New World screwworm, a species of flesh-eating fly larvae. With domestic supplies tight, it has a ripple effect on the national beef price, he says.

    ...

    Last year the US imported 16% of its beef needs, and tariffs will make your next burger more costly. Fifty percent of US beef consumption is ground beef, and Brazil is the biggest supplier of beef trimmings. The additional 50% tariff on Brazil imports means the total tax on those beef imports is 76.4%.

    That tariff was just repealed.

    So far there’s little sign of Americans eating less beef despite the high prices, but that’s the biggest worry, since beef prices have increased much more than pork or chicken. That’s what worries producers like Kenzy and Perez.

    8 votes

  19. Comment on Blue Origin reveals a super-heavy variant of its New Glenn rocket that is taller than a Saturn V in ~space

    skybrian
    Link
    From the article: ... Nice to see competition for SpaceX.

    From the article:

    This super-heavy version of New Glenn will feature nine of the company’s rocket engines on the booster stage, and four on the upper stage. That’s up from seven and two, respectively, on the current version, which Blue Origin says will continue to fly alongside the super-heavy variant. Blue Origin is now referring to the two versions as New Glenn 9×4 and New Glenn 7×2.

    That added firepower will increase the New Glenn booster’s total thrust and allow it to carry “over 70 metric tons to low-Earth orbit,” slightly below Starship’s current theoretical capacity of 100 metric tons. SpaceX is working on new versions of Starship that could double that figure.

    The larger New Glenn will feature a much larger fairing (the forward-facing shield that covers the rocket’s payload) to allow bigger payloads at the top of the rocket. The added capability will put Blue Origin in play for missions centered around “mega-constellations, lunar and deep space explorations, and national security imperatives such as Golden Dome.”

    ...

    The 7×2 version of New Glenn received some updates on Thursday as well. Its total thrust has increased, and it will now feature reusable fairings. Other smaller upgrades were made in order to reduce the turnaround time between launches, according to Blue Origin.

    Nice to see competition for SpaceX.

    10 votes