vektor's recent activity
-
Comment on AI industry horrified to face largest copyright class action ever certified in ~tech
-
Comment on What useful licenses or certifications are surprisingly cheap and easy to get? in ~talk
vektor Link ParentAlso, bad CPR is more valuable than no CPR. Even if you haven't taken a course, pumping someone's chest until you're sketched out about the integrity of their ribs to the tune of "staying alive"...Also, bad CPR is more valuable than no CPR. Even if you haven't taken a course, pumping someone's chest until you're sketched out about the integrity of their ribs to the tune of "staying alive" is a really simple concept, and it is miles above "no CPR". Everything else is a bonus - proper compression depth, ventilating lungs, those are nice. Just check first whether there's a pulse I guess.
Also, depending on your location, dispatch will stay in the line and coach you through it. Apparently, they even have a metronome to keep you in time and remind you to ventilate. So in case of doubt, just call them, put them on speaker and get pumping.
-
Comment on Shouldn't somebody *stop* "Meta Superintelligence Labs"? in ~tech
vektor (edited )Link ParentYou put it better than I would have. We also don't know what will emerge from scaling up another order of magnitude, or another. (We also don't know how much today's or tomorrow's research might...You put it better than I would have.
We also don't know what will emerge from scaling up another order of magnitude, or another. (We also don't know how much today's or tomorrow's research might improve scaling laws.) In fact, in the infinite data/infinite compute case, basically any sufficiently free architecture should achieve intelligence.
Besides that I'm quite skeptical of using the term intelligence without defining it. We used to think chessplay was a unmistakable sign of intelligence. Then it was the Turing test. Then it was creative expression. By most of the definitions we used to apply, LLMs are intelligent, it's just that we abandoned these definitions once machines beat them. If we keep doing that for much longer, no animal will be intelligent anymore and the only artificial intelligence we'd consider intelligent is a superintelligence.
-
Comment on Shouldn't somebody *stop* "Meta Superintelligence Labs"? in ~tech
vektor Link ParentIt's a positively bonkers position, but unless you're willing to cede the AI arms race to a foreign power, the only option is to negotiate or bomb them. And I don't think most relevant countries...It's a positively bonkers position, but unless you're willing to cede the AI arms race to a foreign power, the only option is to negotiate or bomb them. And I don't think most relevant countries are easily convinced by negotiations here.
So unless you want a war with China, the AI arms race will continue. All the way to a superintelligence, if that is where this eventually goes. Hopefully a controllable superintelligence, alternatively benevolent.
-
Comment on What’s something that’s more complicated than most people realize? in ~talk
vektor Link ParentI'd like to contrast this: With this: If vision past the car immediately to your front is clear, you can rule out many of the reasons the car in front might stop faster than is safe. Safeguarding...I'd like to contrast this:
And the fact that it can happen completely dissolves whatever bits of an argument I had.
With this:
There's no such thing as "perfect safety". The real question is: "what level of risk is acceptable?"
If vision past the car immediately to your front is clear, you can rule out many of the reasons the car in front might stop faster than is safe. Safeguarding against every long-tail risks is a sysiphean task and usually ineffective use of resources.
Of course this needs careful consideration of just how big that tail risk is: in poorer visibility, denser traffic and poorer braking conditions, more distance is needed. And unless you're on a green-flagged racetrack, being able to stop before your effective horizon is advisable.
-
Comment on What’s something that’s more complicated than most people realize? in ~talk
vektor Link ParentAn interesting question imo is the "level" of risk homeostasis. Is that long-term constant in time? The ABS example you give only entails a short-term stability, but it's entirely plausible that...An interesting question imo is the "level" of risk homeostasis. Is that long-term constant in time? The ABS example you give only entails a short-term stability, but it's entirely plausible that in the long term the level of acceptable risk decreases. Also, is the intuitive acceptance level calculated in terms of monetary cost or danger to life and limb? What if the rewards are money as opposed to time? How do we trade off monetary gain vs health risks? Or time gain vs monetary risk?
One example of all these factors at work is workplace safety in developed vs developing countries. We all know videos featuring "safety sandals" in Indian factories, right? Assuming the employees aren't slaves, those conditions are somehow "part of the Overton window of safety": someone else might decide on the level of PPE, but the employees still accept the deal. Which I suppose says more about their economic alternatives than their inherent risk tolerance. But the acceptable money to spend to statistically save a life is undoubtedly a different one.
-
Comment on Weather forecast is for extreme heat in Europe. Heat related deaths are expected. in ~enviro
vektor (edited )Link ParentFirst, as some alluded to, much lower humidity than most of the US. My non-AC apartment kept it at 50%. Humidity can get bad here, but usually as a result of rain, which pretty much precludes a...First, as some alluded to, much lower humidity than most of the US. My non-AC apartment kept it at 50%. Humidity can get bad here, but usually as a result of rain, which pretty much precludes a heat wave. YMMV regionally.
Second, building styles. Decent insulation and/or high thermal mass means your walls might take days and days to heat up to unpleasant levels. While it was 40 degrees outside, my apartment never rose above 28. And that in a city that didn't cool off below 20 at night. Conscious management like not cooking and opening windows whenever the outside is cool does help. YMMV per building.
It doesn't get bad enough often enough to justify AC. Or at least it didn't.
-
Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
vektor Link ParentTo clarify, the only reason to wait for the US to fix their shit is so the existing alliance structure stays intact, not so we can continue relying on it. I'd expect us to follow suit on defense...To clarify, the only reason to wait for the US to fix their shit is so the existing alliance structure stays intact, not so we can continue relying on it. I'd expect us to follow suit on defense spending until we can comfortably meet our security needs - and then expect that the US dropped the ridiculous 5% demand, because all reasonable needs will be met beforehand.
Whether the US drops the demand because they (A) are a democracy again, (B) someone else talked to trump's brain-in-a-jar last, or (C) some other despot runs the place doesn't matter. I don't think the 5% goals will ever be met. They're too ridiculous to implement at the whims of a country's unstable leader who wouldn't even help the alliance out anyway.
If the US does not fix their shit, no big deal: in that case we've ramped up defense spending to a point where we don't rely on the US.
If we add 0.2% per year, European NATO will run a 2.3% budget in ~4 years. Given that we could win today, perhaps with a bit more pain than desirable, that should very much suffice.
-
Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
vektor (edited )Link ParentThe US has a uniquely deemphasized artillery force. Their doctrine for getting fires on target is basically: ... by which I mean it's the air force's job. It's no wonder they can't keep up. If the...even the USA
The US has a uniquely deemphasized artillery force. Their doctrine for getting fires on target is basically:
It's always sexy to talk about a new fighter plane
... by which I mean it's the air force's job.
It's no wonder they can't keep up. If the US runs out of JDAMs, is when you gotta worry.
That said, NATO has some militaries with a lot more focus on artillery, and those guns must be fed in case of war.
-
Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
vektor Link ParentThat's my thinking too. Spend a little more while trump is in office (reasonable to contain Russia without too much trouble). Then wait for America to fix their shit. Then in 4 years, quietly...I don't actually expect most countries to meet it by 2035 but maybe I'm naive.
That's my thinking too. Spend a little more while trump is in office (reasonable to contain Russia without too much trouble). Then wait for America to fix their shit. Then in 4 years, quietly scale the goal down to something reasonable and pat each other on the back for finally reaching NATO spending goals.
-
Comment on NATO commits to spending hike sought by US President Donald Trump, and to mutual defence in ~society
vektor Link ParentAs a ballpark figure, we can probably fight and win a war with Russia at the current ~1.5%. All it takes is replacing some of the niche enablers the US currently provides. Call it 1.6% and we're...Europe may need to stand on its own a bit more. Maybe investing 5% in the European domestic MIC could help with that.
As a ballpark figure, we can probably fight and win a war with Russia at the current ~1.5%. All it takes is replacing some of the niche enablers the US currently provides. Call it 1.6% and we're there. This would result in European NATO forces that have a technological edge and perhaps a tiny numbers disadvantage in relatively deemphasized categories like Tanks and AFVs.
Crank that number up to 2 and start using the money more efficiently and the one prospective threat becomes as much of a cake walk as a land war in Asia can ever get. Go to 3.5 or even 5, and it is ridiculously lopsided.
Perun did a video comparing European NATO to Russia a few weeks ago.
The only reasonable thing to do with 5% is to build expeditionary forces to contain threats cough china cough farther afield. Or give Germany nukes, that's also possible. You guys want German nukes?
-
Comment on US bombers strike nuclear sites in Iran in ~society
vektor Link ParentMind quoting the exact verbiage and/or linking a source? What I've read is that no radiation was released, which is a different thing. A release of uranium wouldn't result in a lot of radiation.IAEA stated there's no contamination, so that begs the question...
Mind quoting the exact verbiage and/or linking a source?
What I've read is that no radiation was released, which is a different thing. A release of uranium wouldn't result in a lot of radiation.
-
Comment on US bombers strike nuclear sites in Iran in ~society
vektor Link ParentNot much of a concern, as long as no chain reaction happened during the strike. Enriched uranium is barely more radioactive than depleted, which is to say it's half life is in the hundreds of...and the radiological fallout from all of that mostly enriched uranium flowing around in a nice big yellow cloud of doom.
Not much of a concern, as long as no chain reaction happened during the strike. Enriched uranium is barely more radioactive than depleted, which is to say it's half life is in the hundreds of millions of years. It's basically a stable element.
U-235 only becomes interesting once you bombard it with neutrons, but that won't happen during enrichment or in a fallout cloud. A chain reaction because you hit centrifuges with a MOP seems incredibly unlikely too - those contain UF6, a gas. Hard to shape a critical mass of that.
-
Comment on Air India 787 crashes after takeoff in Ahmedabad, India in ~transport
vektor (edited )Link ParentThat inspires confidence. Not that ATC was at all likely to be a factor, but... at least in the US, the public can be as informed as they please about that particular problem.Also, we won't have ATC comms for at least some time if ever because it's apparently illegal in India to record that.
That inspires confidence.
Not that ATC was at all likely to be a factor, but... at least in the US, the public can be as informed as they please about that particular problem.
-
Comment on OpenAI slams US court order to save all ChatGPT logs, including deleted chats in ~tech
vektor Link ParentI imagine a lot of businesses are doing exactly that right now: seeing if they can divest. Even if it isn't necessary compliance wise, it might still be expensive proprietary data going into the API.I imagine a lot of businesses are doing exactly that right now: seeing if they can divest. Even if it isn't necessary compliance wise, it might still be expensive proprietary data going into the API.
-
Comment on Klarna’s losses widen after more consumers fail to repay loans in ~finance
vektor Link ParentI think stu2b50's point is that the fact the option is there is not a bad sign. They are not commenting about it being a bad sign if people use it. And I'm inclined to agree. That someone added...Lots of things are easy to implement and still a bad sign.
I think stu2b50's point is that the fact the option is there is not a bad sign.
They are not commenting about it being a bad sign if people use it.
And I'm inclined to agree. That someone added another option to an already bloated UI doesn't say much about the economy. It's a boring fact. If people are actually using it because they have no other choice, that's potentially very bad.
-
Comment on Is all cooking "ultra-processed" food? in ~food
vektor Link ParentNone of those terms imply anything about where a food sits on the Nova scale. You can have organic UPF junk, nothing contradictory with that. In fact, that's kind of Adam's point: the garbage-ness...None of those terms imply anything about where a food sits on the Nova scale. You can have organic UPF junk, nothing contradictory with that. In fact, that's kind of Adam's point: the garbage-ness is less about ingredients and more about cultural aspects of how we eat things.
-
Comment on A nonsense phrase has been occurring in scientific papers, suggesting artificial intelligence data contamination in ~tech
vektor Link ParentPretty sure I saw a reddit thread about this exact phrase, where some users figured out that the phrase is easily explained as a mistranslation from Persian. Basically, remove a single dot in the...Pretty sure I saw a reddit thread about this exact phrase, where some users figured out that the phrase is easily explained as a mistranslation from Persian. Basically, remove a single dot in the Persian phrase, and this is the proper translation of slightly misread Persian.
-
Comment on I'm tired of dismissive anti-AI bias in ~tech
vektor Link ParentEven if the first is actually commercial use, it's still fine. The line isn't whether it's commercial use or not (copyright cares precious little for that), the line is whether it's a Derivative...Even if the first is actually commercial use, it's still fine. The line isn't whether it's commercial use or not (copyright cares precious little for that), the line is whether it's a Derivative Work (technical term) or not. Most AI artwork is not derivative work. Studio Ghibli's style isn't copyrighted, their individual works are. So unless you can point to a specific work and provide specific, concrete elements that were straight up copied with minor adaptation, ripping off Studio Ghibli's style isn't infringement. That'd certainly be easy to argue if you prompted the AI using copyrighted material, but not at all easy if it's just a bunch of training data.
-
Comment on An engineer says he’s found a way to overcome Earth’s gravity in ~space
vektor Link ParentOh, for sure. I don't mean to imply that photon rockets are viable as they exist right now. Their TWR will be low regardless of how you do it, so even solar cells won't make them unviable as of...Oh, for sure. I don't mean to imply that photon rockets are viable as they exist right now. Their TWR will be low regardless of how you do it, so even solar cells won't make them unviable as of now. I guess what I was trying to convey is some nitpickery about "propellant" vs "reaction mass". Like, in any reasonable definition, are those photons actually propellant? They weren't on board when your rocket is fuelled up (though of course their mass was). Yet they act as reaction mass. You can also "refuel" in some unusual ways compared to regular rocket engines, even Hall effect thrusters. So can you really call them propellant? Hence "propellantless, but photons as reaction mass".
If you ask me, take the price of the item in question. Then multiply with a fudge factor to ensure it discourages piracy. In the case of public transport here, that factor is x3 or x10, roughly, just to give a real world example. That sounds a lot more reasonable than the x10000 implied by the 150k fine.
I also think we might not even have this problem if relevant quantities of these works could be licensed in bulk at reasonable rates.