hobbes64's recent activity
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Comment on Why US President Donald Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) in ~society
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Comment on Why do domestic prices rise with tariffs? in ~finance
hobbes64 LinkThis isn't even measuring the other harms that are happening with the way trump is doing the tariffs. At minimum, he's destroying markets for American exports. Not only because of counter tariffs,...This isn't even measuring the other harms that are happening with the way trump is doing the tariffs. At minimum, he's destroying markets for American exports. Not only because of counter tariffs, but there is going to be significant boycotting of American goods for years.
They keep going back and forth on the reasons for them: It's to raise revenue. It's to bring manufacturing back to the US. It's an emergency to stop drug smuggling. It's a negotiating tool.
Let's pick that one. It's a negotiating tool.
Trump Has Already Botched His Own Bad Tariff Plan
However, there is a principle at work here called “No backsies.” Once you’ve said you might negotiate the tariffs, nobody is going to believe you when you change your mind and say you’ll never negotiate.
Indeed, precisely two hours and 17 minutes after insisting that his policies would never change, Trump returned to Truth Social to announce excitedly that the policies were going to change: “Just had a very productive call with To Lam, General Secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, who told me that Vietnam wants to cut their Tariffs down to ZERO if they are able to make an agreement with the U.S. I thanked him on behalf of our Country, and said I look forward to a meeting in the near future.”A problem with Trump (and there are countless problems with him) is that he's either an evil mastermind or a complete dumbass, and all seem to be true at once. He appears to be trying to take over the world in the most incompetent way possible. It's true that he may have some feigned incompetence to throw people off, but at the same time he constantly does things that undermine his stated goals.
At least we know he is incredibly reckless. -
Comment on How the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg got added to the White House Signal group chat in ~society
hobbes64 Link ParentI don't think the Atlantic did anything wrong or outed anyone, their coverage redacted anything like that. I thought you meant something elseI don't think the Atlantic did anything wrong or outed anyone, their coverage redacted anything like that. I thought you meant something else
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Comment on How the Atlantic’s Jeffrey Goldberg got added to the White House Signal group chat in ~society
hobbes64 Link ParentIt's impossible to keep track of the firehose of bullshit from Trump's admin. Every week there's a scandal that would end most political careers, at least 10 or 20 years ago. There's a combination...Lastly, I wish people would talk more about the active CIA operative that was outted.
It's impossible to keep track of the firehose of bullshit from Trump's admin. Every week there's a scandal that would end most political careers, at least 10 or 20 years ago. There's a combination of factors that are preventing proper focus on important issues, and Trump has weaponized this. Following the example of Russian disinformation, of course.
So it's not surprising there hasn't been proper accountability for the signal scandal, since there are multiple other scandals going on, and the moment there are five seconds of quiet, Trump will threaten Greenland again or something. And people have been trained by Fox news and social media to immerse themselves in bubbles of disinformation. Hopefully the protests will increase and break through. -
Comment on US President Donald Trump’s declaration of national economic emergency under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) in ~society
hobbes64 (edited )Link ParentI follow a small number on Bluesky, including Robert Reich. But he posts a bit too frequently and dominates the feed. Here's one. Snyder isn't saying a whole lot about the tariffs specifically but...I follow a small number on Bluesky, including Robert Reich. But he posts a bit too frequently and dominates the feed.
Here's one. Snyder isn't saying a whole lot about the tariffs specifically but quite a bit about Trump's authoritarianism and EOs:
Timothy SnyderI also follow Dan Carlin. He has been mostly silent about Trump for years, and even stopped doing his Common Sense podcast because I guess he thought there was too much division around politics now. But he's finally had enough I guess and has made a few posts and may restart the podcast.
Dan Carlin (bluesky)An excellent source about the tariffs has been The Atlantic. It requires a subscription but there are usually other ways to read a specific post by using archive or turning off javascript. Here are some recent posts:
Trump’s Tariffs Are Designed to Backfire
There Is Only One Way to Make Sense of the Tariffs
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Comment on ‘This unlawful impost must fall’: Conservative group sues US President Donald Trump claiming tariffs are ‘unconstitutional exercise of legislative power’ in ~society
hobbes64 Link ParentIt’s explained by the fact that the government is run by political parties rather than branches of government. Especially with republicans, the party wants a certain thing and colludes across...It’s explained by the fact that the government is run by political parties rather than branches of government. Especially with republicans, the party wants a certain thing and colludes across branches. Checks and balances are gone when the same party has control of all the branches.
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Comment on An image of an archeologist adventurer who wears a hat and uses a bullwhip in ~tech
hobbes64 LinkAI generated art will have interesting ramifications on copyright law I think. I'm not a lawyer, and I don't know much about copyright or trademark, but it's a common opinion that the length of...AI generated art will have interesting ramifications on copyright law I think. I'm not a lawyer, and I don't know much about copyright or trademark, but it's a common opinion that the length of copyright has been too long for a long time. I wonder if the big tech companies have enough money and clout to fight Disney and whatever other media company and get the copyright terms down to what they used to be, just enough to promote arts but not enough to harm public goods. Because the big tech companies are going to want to generate pictures of Indiana Jones long before Lucas and Spielberg are dead for 70 years.
There's always been people who "steal" copyrighted works, but it hasn't been as bold as it is since the AI art generators appeared. I've been kind of interested in "crappy off brands" since I was a kid. I remember going to those fairs that come to town sometimes for a few days, the ones that have those sort of dangerous rides that are held together by rusty cotter pins. And those rides would frequently have a picture of some character like Mickey Mouse or Bugs Bunny. But you could tell it wasn't an official version because the colors weren't quite right or the artist wasn't very good and the faces had the wrong proportions. I don't think Disney or Warner Bros spent much time pursuing these carnivals, maybe just because they were distributed and had shallow pockets. That's not the case with GPT, so we can expect them to clash a lot.
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Comment on ‘The Simpsons,’ ‘Family Guy,’ ‘Bob’s Burgers’ renewed for four more seasons in ~tv
hobbes64 Link ParentI watched that Treehouse of Horror and I thought it was pretty good actually but I can't believe that they didn't make the Shinigami Krusty. When my family watched Death Note we called Ryuk Krusty...I watched that Treehouse of Horror and I thought it was pretty good actually but I can't believe that they didn't make the Shinigami Krusty. When my family watched Death Note we called Ryuk Krusty all the time because of the resemblance.
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Comment on ‘The Simpsons,’ ‘Family Guy,’ ‘Bob’s Burgers’ renewed for four more seasons in ~tv
hobbes64 Link ParentWanting to have shows make sense when episodes were viewed in a random order made sense 20 years ago or more when people only watched broadcast tv. But since DVD and streaming lets you watch shows...Wanting to have shows make sense when episodes were viewed in a random order made sense 20 years ago or more when people only watched broadcast tv. But since DVD and streaming lets you watch shows in order it doesn't seem like a good reason to prevent characters from developing.
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Comment on ‘The Simpsons,’ ‘Family Guy,’ ‘Bob’s Burgers’ renewed for four more seasons in ~tv
hobbes64 Link ParentI think Family Guy had it's moments. It's pretty meme-able because it sometimes has funny jokes. But full episodes are often not good because it will always do jokes at the expense of plot, which...I think Family Guy had it's moments. It's pretty meme-able because it sometimes has funny jokes. But full episodes are often not good because it will always do jokes at the expense of plot, which can make things confusing or just not flow properly like a more carefully constructed show.
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Comment on Nintendo delays Switch 2 pre-orders in US due to tariffs and "evolving market conditions" in ~games
hobbes64 LinkThere's an article on the Atlantic today called Make Smuggling Great Again The black market for these games and pretty much everything else will be out of control. $600 blackmarket nintendos is...There's an article on the Atlantic today called Make Smuggling Great Again
President Donald Trump’s high-tariff regime will impose higher prices and lower growth on Americans. It will have another effect that nobody in the administration seems to have considered at all: a tsunami of smuggling.
In a few days’ time, every desirable consumer good will be dramatically more expensive in the United States than on world markets. Flat-screen TVs, athletic shoes, video-game equipment, even household basics such as coffee, toilet paper, and soy sauce—all will soon cost 20, 25, 35 percent more than they cost on world markets.
Trump has just opened perhaps the greatest arbitrage opportunity in the history of world trade. His effort to repeat the Smoot-Hawley tariffs of the 1930s will also replicate the cross-border bootlegging of alcohol during Prohibition.
The black market for these games and pretty much everything else will be out of control. $600 blackmarket nintendos is just a tiny taste of the fun we are in for.
Of course, it won't just be high prices, there will be a lot more people out of work. And in the summer when there start to be massive protests, expect huge crackdowns and martial law.
Maybe it will get bad enough for the republicans in congress to actually stop the tariffs and kick him out of office.
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Comment on ‘The Simpsons,’ ‘Family Guy,’ ‘Bob’s Burgers’ renewed for four more seasons in ~tv
hobbes64 Link ParentEvery once in a while I see a post or article about how the latest season is actually good again. Then I try watching a few episodes and I see it isn't for me. It isn't funny to me and it seems...Every once in a while I see a post or article about how the latest season is actually good again. Then I try watching a few episodes and I see it isn't for me. It isn't funny to me and it seems cynical and hollow.
I also notice that the voices are different. Both Homer and Marge sound very aged, which is natural since the actors are 36 years older than when they started.
I saw a video last week that showed a recent episode had Bart's birthday and he actually was a year older. But then they had some way to put him back at the same age again by the end of the episode. And I realized the only way I would watch the Simpson's again would be if they let the characters age. It would open up new story lines instead of just having a guest star of whomever is popular this year.
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Comment on Help me understand how half of USA is on board with the idea of creating "short term pain" in ~society
hobbes64 Link ParentRelated to your last paragraph, how the "strong" pushed back against reasonable community practices like masks - It makes me think about the 1940s and the world war. During the war, the government...Related to your last paragraph, how the "strong" pushed back against reasonable community practices like masks - It makes me think about the 1940s and the world war.
During the war, the government of the United States asked citizens to help with the war effort. There was rationing of gasoline, rubber, food, and anything that would help make it possible to provide more strength where it was needed. There was recycling and collection of rubber, metal, and even cooking grease since all of those things could be used to make weapons. From what I can tell, there was not a huge pushback to this, and there was a general sense of pride and community and working together to achieve a goal.
I know other countries involved in the war had similar experiences with the level of cooperation and support from the general population, and culturally it was considered shameful if you weren't contributing and helping.
This is such a contrast to the ridiculous response to the COVID pandemic in the United States, where the virus quickly became a wedge issue to score political points, and people acted like obstinate children who could not be bothered to show a minimum of care and respect to each other. The President himself constantly undermined a rational response and I consider him directly responsible for the death of hundreds of thousands of people. And now the same mentally ill person is destroying the economy for just as selfish and capricious reasons. -
Comment on Help me understand how half of USA is on board with the idea of creating "short term pain" in ~society
hobbes64 Link ParentThe “for nothing” part is uncertain. It is clear that the tariffs won’t achieve the stated goal of helping the US economy. It might achieve other goals that trump and his associates have. This may...The “for nothing” part is uncertain.
It is clear that the tariffs won’t achieve the stated goal of helping the US economy.
It might achieve other goals that trump and his associates have. This may include intentionally crashing the economy so rich people can get more wealth from bargains. Or it may be that he’s actually Agent Krasnov who is a Russian asset and the biggest traitor in history.
Trump supporters don’t seem to consider these realistic possibilities.
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Comment on How have US food prices changed? Our tracker can give you a sense. (gifted link) in ~food
hobbes64 Link ParentI agree. Also, this is worse than a recession. It’s not just economic supply problems or whatever. Trump is doing long term harm to trade partners and they will find other more reliable partners....I agree. Also, this is worse than a recession. It’s not just economic supply problems or whatever. Trump is doing long term harm to trade partners and they will find other more reliable partners. He’s also permanently damaging American companies whose products are being boycotted in Canada and Europe and anywhere else trump has threatened or mocked.
This is an absolute disaster for the United States and for the world. -
Comment on See Donald Trump's list: More than 180 countries and territories facing reciprocal tariffs from the US in ~society
hobbes64 LinkI hope that everyone is clear that he can't just "do" this. It requires that congress allows it. Specifically, the republicans in congress. So they could put an end to this all quickly. He would...I hope that everyone is clear that he can't just "do" this. It requires that congress allows it. Specifically, the republicans in congress. So they could put an end to this all quickly. He would veto, then they would need 2/3 vote to end it again. And that would be it. Also, they could impeach him and remove him from office if they chose to.
It's too bad that political parties have disabled the checks and balances that we are taught about in school. -
Comment on Star Trek: Strange New Worlds | Season 3 teaser trailer in ~tv
hobbes64 Link ParentHmm maybe I'll give Discovery another try. When SNW comes back I'll re-subscribe to paramount and watch both. Also I haven't watched much of The Lower Decks and I know that is pretty good. One...Hmm maybe I'll give Discovery another try. When SNW comes back I'll re-subscribe to paramount and watch both. Also I haven't watched much of The Lower Decks and I know that is pretty good.
One thing I'll note is that I kept hearing over and over again that The Orville was a great show. I watched a few episodes of that and just hated it. But then a year later I went back and watched it and it really got better and I liked it a lot.
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Comment on You get to choose your favorite director's next project. What is it, and why? in ~movies
hobbes64 Link ParentIt's been years since I read Ringworld but I don't remember anything problematic. At least I can't remember anything like that which would ruin the story if it was removed. In another book,...It's been years since I read Ringworld but I don't remember anything problematic. At least I can't remember anything like that which would ruin the story if it was removed. In another book, Lucifer's Hammer, which he co-wrote with Jerry Pournelle:
I don't think that Niven or Pournelle advocate the behavior, but it's just a thing in the book that can make people uncomfortable.Plot point spoiler
After society collapses, there are some middle-aged men who take underage girls as wives. There is no organized society to stop it. Also there's cannibalism and some other unpleasant stuff.If there is stuff like that, I guess it can kind of be spoofed or mocked as was done by Verhoeven with Heinlein's Starship Troopers
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Comment on Star Trek: Strange New Worlds | Season 3 teaser trailer in ~tv
hobbes64 Link ParentI watched all 3 seasons of Picard. It's definitely not good. But not as bad as Discovery, I think I made it through 2 seasons of that one. I agree that SNW is great and the trailer looks like the...I watched all 3 seasons of Picard. It's definitely not good. But not as bad as Discovery, I think I made it through 2 seasons of that one. I agree that SNW is great and the trailer looks like the new season will be a lot of fun.
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Comment on You get to choose your favorite director's next project. What is it, and why? in ~movies
hobbes64 LinkI want Spielberg to do Ringworld by Larry Niven. I don’t think he’s particularly off track, but I like when he does sci fi like “A.I.”. I also just want someone to make that movie. I guess Amazon...I want Spielberg to do Ringworld by Larry Niven. I don’t think he’s particularly off track, but I like when he does sci fi like “A.I.”.
I also just want someone to make that movie. I guess Amazon announced a tv series back in 2017 but I don’t know if it’s been canceled.
I always thought it was interesting to compare the output of dictatorships with planned economies vs democracies with (somewhat) free markets. I’ll refer to these as planned vs free below.
It’s obvious that a planned economy like China’s can do some better planning across quarters and years and efficiently jump ahead. You can see this in how they are rolling put electric cars for example. I think the problem is that the planned economies over time get behind because the freer societies have more and better inventions. This may be because there is more greed incentive and less fear of failure in the free society. Also planned economies, and dictatorships in general, have much more corruption and that eats a lot of long term gains. Anyway there is always a pattern that the closed societies end up stealing most of their tech. I understand that both China and Russia occasionally make stunning advances without stealing, but historically they are fewer than in the west.
Unfortunately with Trump we get the worst of both worlds. We get all the corruption and incompetent yes men controlling things, but no vision or careful planning.