kacey's recent activity
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Comment on Avi Lewis’s pledge to make proportional representation the (Canadian, federal) NDP’s one demand says he is serious about PR in ~society
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Comment on Avi Lewis’s pledge to make proportional representation the (Canadian, federal) NDP’s one demand says he is serious about PR in ~society
kacey Link ParentThis ... may be uncharacteristic of me, but he just rubs me the wrong way. He ran for the Vancouver Centre riding in the last election, and his campaign felt very heavy on slogans/promises but...I wasn't familiar with Avi Lewis until this weekend. May I ask why you dislike him as a human being?
This ... may be uncharacteristic of me, but he just rubs me the wrong way.
He ran for the Vancouver Centre riding in the last election, and his campaign felt very heavy on slogans/promises but weak on concrete plans? (it's been too long since then, and he took down his old website. Just scrolling through the archive doesn't ring any bells either) I'd also never had canvassers for a party exercise their right to enter an apartment building, and walk door to door speaking with people, which felt oddly invasive. Lastly: that riding was (and is) an LPC stronghold. Avi Lewis stood effectively zero chance at winning, and a non-zero chance of splitting the vote to allow a CPC candidate to take the seat, which in the election felt tone deaf. Taking his message somewhere that that could make a meaningful impact felt like the right thing to have done, but the glory of winning a nothing riding would've been far less than flipping Vancouver Centre.
So, I dislike his character for the same reason I dislike all politicians: they're slimy, and I wouldn't trust one with my purse unattended. But pragmatically, someone with that disposition is best suited for affecting change atm, and I agree that his platform is precisely what I think the NDP (and honestly, Canada) needs.
Hope that helps XD sorry for the vibes based response; I normally hope to provide a better argument than this.
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Comment on Google releases Gemma 4 in ~comp
kacey Link ParentYeah, it feels a little self-congratulatory, especially that it seems close enough to the Qwen3.5 models to not be something extraordinary. But I guess that restraint and press releases are mutual...Yeah, it feels a little self-congratulatory, especially that it seems close enough to the Qwen3.5 models to not be something extraordinary.
But I guess that restraint and press releases are mutual exclusive concepts 😅
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Comment on Much ado about marshmallows in ~food
kacey Link(off topic: not sure if it's helpful to anyone, but I could read the article by searching for the title in Google, then clicking a link to it from there)(off topic: not sure if it's helpful to anyone, but I could read the article by searching for the title in Google, then clicking a link to it from there)
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Comment on Linux kernel czar says AI bug reports aren't slop anymore in ~comp
kacey Link ParentHah, fair enough 😅 this is more in reference to the observation that, in the nascent field of AI, small early wins often precede dramatic revolutions -- we've barely had any time to explore these...Hah, fair enough 😅 this is more in reference to the observation that, in the nascent field of AI, small early wins often precede dramatic revolutions -- we've barely had any time to explore these techniques, so randomly sampling out of the space of possible solutions keeps turning up great results.
As a practical example, consider Will Smith eating spaghetti: it was awful, until it wasn't.
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Comment on Linux kernel czar says AI bug reports aren't slop anymore in ~comp
kacey (edited )Link Parentimo, but this is v1! It's the worst it'll ever be. Additionally, if I recall correctly, this was created by a startup in stealth mode, so they've probably run out of easy money and want to raise...what is the point of an LLM like this if I can't ask it basic questions about the world and expect them to be correct?
imo, but this is v1! It's the worst it'll ever be.
Additionally, if I recall correctly, this was created by a startup in stealth mode, so they've probably run out of easy money and want to raise some capital from a more diverse array of investors. This was released to make a splash: if they prove the technique works, they could pitch getting acquired by one of the big firms that might be eyeing this tech for edge inference.
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Comment on Linux kernel czar says AI bug reports aren't slop anymore in ~comp
kacey Link ParentHah, fair! Sorry for the gigantic response. Please know that I have now imagined a thorough reply from you, and you made some excellent points! :3 Ooh; ty for the link, I'll give it a read. Dunno!...Hah, fair! Sorry for the gigantic response. Please know that I have now imagined a thorough reply from you, and you made some excellent points! :3
[The Subprime AI crisis is here]
Ooh; ty for the link, I'll give it a read.
If OpenAI and Anthropic both implode from the debt, where do these continually improved derivative models for local execution come from?
Dunno! I think I mentioned elsewhere in this thread, but there're definitely aspects of these developments that I'm not certain about. I can say confidently that today's SotA model will be next year (or the year after's) local, cobbled together with a box of scraps, model, but I'm not sure what sustainable growth afterwards will look like. Even that, though, will be hugely impactful -- per the linked Register article, as well as the folks who're slowly figuring out how to deploy these tools usefully in their day to day jobs.
What comes next is, like, five plus years down the road, and I hesitate to guess what'll happen on timescales like that (except in very broad strokes).
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Comment on Megathread: April Fools' Day 2026 on the internet in ~talk
kacey Link(Mallow's Art Tricks) How To Draw Eyes (compare with a non-April fools' day video on feathers to understand the format)(Mallow's Art Tricks) How To Draw Eyes
(compare with a non-April fools' day video on feathers to understand the format)
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Comment on Linux kernel czar says AI bug reports aren't slop anymore in ~comp
kacey Link ParentPerhaps? But, selfishly, I'm here to read and digest many hundreds of other peoples' low-effort speculations, so as to hopefully obtain some impression of what the gestalt opinion on the topic is....Perhaps? But, selfishly, I'm here to read and digest many hundreds of other peoples' low-effort speculations, so as to hopefully obtain some impression of what the gestalt opinion on the topic is. I'm at least not sitting here, trying to find an individual whose opinion I agree with enough, to hitch my wagon to; I want to understand which direction the convoy is moving in to do with that information what I will.
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Comment on Linux kernel czar says AI bug reports aren't slop anymore in ~comp
kacey (edited )Link ParentAgreed with the former, disagreed with the latter. Perhaps see my essay in the cousin comment, but my personal philosophy is that optimism demands foresight. If we're not prepared for what's...Studying how things work now is valuable in itself. Speculation is much less useful.
Agreed with the former, disagreed with the latter. Perhaps see my essay in the cousin comment, but my personal philosophy is that optimism demands foresight. If we're not prepared for what's coming around the corner, we can't realistically expect to deal with it when it arrives. Being blindsided repeatedly by unexpected realities will wear down one's resolve, so I say, aim for both: understand what's doable now, and determine what is realistically doable in the foreseeable future.
(I'm speaking in absolutes, mind, but I doubt either of us is an expert predictor)
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Comment on Linux kernel czar says AI bug reports aren't slop anymore in ~comp
kacey Link ParentJust responding point by point because I'm tired ... I didn't want to, like, play to the audience and write an essay which kinda sorta addressed your points but rhetorically attempted to find an...Just responding point by point because I'm tired ... I didn't want to, like, play to the audience and write an essay which kinda sorta addressed your points but rhetorically attempted to find an alternative position that sounded sexy. Genuinely I'm starved for conversation about this stuff which doesn't immediately reach for tired talking points.
If it wasn't, why do all of the players in AI feel the need to horrifically mask and distort their true expenses and earnings?
IMO: they're up to their eyeballs in debt which needs to be paid off ASAP. Your house can be worth fifty million dollars, but if you're not making enough money to pay the mortgage you took out, it can still put you underwater. (ed: you address this later in your post, but I'm leaving it in since I worked hard on this metaphor :3)
At $20 a month, it's pretty easy to justify the tooling. How about at $200 a month for this same capability reflecting that true cost? Most model improvements at this point are still relying on 'put it on a bigger rocket.' Token prices are dropping, but best we can tell, cost to provide them has not.
I'm locally running a model (Qwen3.5 35b a3b) that hits in roughly the same tier as Anthropic's just-shy-of-flagship model from 2025 (Sonnet 3.7) that everyone was raving about for about ten Canadian pesos of power a month, on a low end, seven year old GPU. This trend of Chinese models distilling last year's frontier model down into an order of magnitude smaller size has continued for several years, and unless someone here has the experience to explain why that trend will cease in 2027, I don't see any reason why it shouldn't.
(admittedly I'm doing so at a 4bit quantization, but IIRC that's not an orders-of-magnitude penalty in perplexity, or anything)
Bear in mind that almost all of this is predicated upon still needing an expert to actually use the thing. I'm fairly certain this will never go away. Business Joe might be able to get Claude to spit out a venn diagram, while having preciesely 0 clue if it is accurate.
... I don't follow, sorry. I think you're saying that, for functional outputs, it's unclear how to tell if the model has produced something correct or not? E.g. if I ask it to do some competitive analysis, how do I know to trust the model's output or not. I would counterpoint that I don't know if I should trust a human's output or not: as a person currently working with several humans on fields I barely understand (but have researched extensively), I can point to several situations where they've developed blind spots the size of a city bus that they confidently claim do not exist. IME that 99.999% accuracy was both never desired, nor was it ever necessary, in the overwhelming majority of applications (which is ironically something I picked up from software development).
And, even if we discard all the other problems (like exponentially increasing the pollution and energy demand ala Bitcoin)....what's the point?
Post-scarcity economy and dissolution of the capital class. I dunno. What's the point of capitalism anyways; if we don't have the machines do this labour, we're going to get crushed into paste by our bosses to accomplish the same in due time anyways. That's why my career was always destined to be replaced by a million shiny new grads told that a bright future awaits them in CS (in order to depress wages), or outsourced to whichever country is sexiest to MBAs today (last I checked it was Brazil or Romania, but that's showing my age).
Automate all of life away so we can plug ourselves into the Matrix and live like it's 1999 in a virtual world, because we made ourcurrent one inhabitable?
(sarcasm) I would prefer Digimon Adventures (1999) to The Matrix, but I do appreciate that the latter is a trans allegory, so perhaps the realized version of it wouldn't be as bad. IIRC the first version of The Matrix was a paradise, until the humans revolted.
People will counter with "but we'll only automate the drudgery," but best I can tell that really just translates to new drudgery.
No one knows what the future holds. Pundits could not shut up about how prompt engineering was the future, (imo) because people have trouble imagining what life beyond the present constraints could look like. I had a friend tell me that -- rephrasing in order to make my point better (:3) -- dreaming at all about possibilities beyond the reach of precisely today's technology was science fiction, and that focusing on exactly what we can do today is the only realistic path; everyone else is an idiot.
I disagree strongly: we've always dreamed as a species, and it's only with the advent of global collaboration, science, and technology that we've been able to realize those dreams. Abandoning our spirit now for despair feels easy, because hope is difficult. IMO.
It would be quite ironic if AI drove us back to an era where most of the world is just farmers again because industrial methods are proven unsustainable and every non-labor job has been eaten by AI.
All the fertile land is owned by capitalists now, unfortunately, so we'd be driven off the fields by Unitree assault drones in short order.
I'm also reminded of how big Superbowl ad spending is almost like a harbinger of a bubble about to pop. Like the dotcom. Or crypto. A desperate plea to get as many customers ASAP to avoid going under from all the debt-fueled loss-leading.
Agreed that there'll be a bubble pop; it's physically impossible to build out the data centres as fast as they've been agreed to, since everything from the HVAC to the generators for them can't be brought online fast enough to meet the deadlines which these companies have set for themselves. The distinction is that when this bubble pops, it'll leave behind tools and technology that largely obviate the parts of software development which were difficult for the lay person, as well as a playbook about how to do so for many other industries. Note that the dotcom bubble left behind the internet.
(admittedly the crypto bubble left behind only reams of worthless ape JPEGs and dumped meme coins)
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Comment on Linux kernel czar says AI bug reports aren't slop anymore in ~comp
kacey LinkThanks for posting this. Kind of a tangential comment, but it's weird feeling like the crazy one for several years, pointing out how many times that pundits have drawn lines in the sand, stating...Thanks for posting this.
Kind of a tangential comment, but it's weird feeling like the crazy one for several years, pointing out how many times that pundits have drawn lines in the sand, stating "but AI can't draw hands!", "it can't write functioning code!", "surely not my job!", etc. they get blitzed past in a year or two. It's always felt like people who were experts in their field but not ML/AI were the ones claiming things about the potential capabilities of these systems, so it's been consistently difficult to have decent quality discourse about the topic. It would've been good to discuss this stuff back when the models had fewer teeth, so to speak, but I guess now's as good a time as ever.
I do wonder what the next "surely never X" is. I see a lot of people discussing how these models and tools can only write decent code, and review PRs with some degree of autonomy, but only humans can design systems overall. Or that only the spark of true, human consciousness can design a powerpoint for C-suite execs.
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Comment on Avi Lewis’s pledge to make proportional representation the (Canadian, federal) NDP’s one demand says he is serious about PR in ~society
kacey (edited )Link ParentYep! Coincidentally, both of them. And so did like a half dozen other people: Mackenzie King (1921) (federal) Pierre Trudeau (1980) (federal) Dalton McGuinty (2003) (Ontario) (for completeness'...Yep! Coincidentally, both of them. And so did like a half dozen other people:
- Mackenzie King (1921) (federal)
- Pierre Trudeau (1980) (federal)
- Dalton McGuinty (2003) (Ontario)
- (for completeness' sake) Justin Trudeau (2015) (federal)
- Wade MacLauchlan (2015) (PEI)
- François Legault (2018) (Quebec)
BC holds a special place in my heart: our most recent, unnecessary referendum was intentionally bungled by David Eby: per exit polls, most people want the outcomes of proportional representation, but half didn't understand what they were being asked to vote on. The entire point of representative democracy is that we elect leaders who hold our values, then allow them to run the country: we don't vote on every dollar allocated, or what colour they paint the town hall; why are we asking millions of BC citizens to learn the intricacies of voting systems to make a decision on them? Ultimately, most people don't understand the impacts of First Past the Post anyways, so the immense status quo bias here makes a referendum largely pointless (and it still gets sizeable support).
(note: I played a little fast and loose with my citations above, so please feel free to correct me in replies and I'll add/remove things from the list)
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Comment on Avi Lewis’s pledge to make proportional representation the (Canadian, federal) NDP’s one demand says he is serious about PR in ~society
kacey (edited )Link ParentFair enough, and agreed! I think the explicit goal is to recapture a non-majority subset of people who have those beliefs, though, with the understanding that they're all disaffected by the other...I really don't think that ideology lines up with what the majority of Canadians want right now.
Fair enough, and agreed! I think the explicit goal is to recapture a non-majority subset of people who have those beliefs, though, with the understanding that they're all disaffected by the other two parties. This leadership race was effectively between Avi Lewis and Heather McPherson, where the latter had a platform that seemed like (to me) as "Liberal with a hint of spice": a largely palatable, soft-line stance that could hypothetically lure some Liberal voters away.
Although I truly dislike Avi Lewis as a human being, he is nothing if not a politician, and IMO he read the room correctly: there are enough people that want a party that pushes, hard, in a direction very far away from the Conservatives (at least, enough registered NDP voters). To hopefully shift this Overton window as far as it can in opposition to the slow descent into conservativism that it's been sinking into over the past few decades. I honestly think that this (satirical) article outlines the goal well: his policies don't need to be popular with everyone, they need to be popular enough to win the previous NDP stronghold seats to force the Liberals back into a minority government. He isn't playing to win, he's playing to be kingmaker.
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Comment on Avi Lewis’s pledge to make proportional representation the (Canadian, federal) NDP’s one demand says he is serious about PR in ~society
kacey LinkThe Canadian, federal NDP had a leadership race recently and Avi Lewis won. He's a bit of a controversial figure, but clearly seems to be willing to play the political game in order to win ... so...The Canadian, federal NDP had a leadership race recently and Avi Lewis won. He's a bit of a controversial figure, but clearly seems to be willing to play the political game in order to win ... so with extremely couched optimism, and a grain of salt the size of a dinner table, he appears to be the latest Canadian political figure to back proportional representation. For context: we've had several leaders come and go, at the provincial and federal levels, who ran on this platform -- won -- and then had a surprise change of heart at the prospect of destroying the system which got them into power.
Maybe this time will be different? The global political situation has changed dramatically over the last several years, so perhaps there's more incentive now to actually follow through with the plan. Time will tell.
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Avi Lewis’s pledge to make proportional representation the (Canadian, federal) NDP’s one demand says he is serious about PR
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Comment on Ottawa's big bet on world's largest cricket farm ran into a simple problem: the 'yuck factor' in ~food
kacey (edited )Link ParentAgreed! I'm not sure what those investors were thinking when they poured money into this effort. Ultimately, growing plants to feed to crickets is less efficient than just eating the plants, and...Agreed! I'm not sure what those investors were thinking when they poured money into this effort. Ultimately, growing plants to feed to crickets is less efficient than just eating the plants, and -- as you note -- can create a larger amount of polarization in consumers used to a western diet. Given that there's only a fixed amount of government funding floating around for initiatives like this, I'd've expected cricket farming to be deprioritized pretty severely compared to other efforts (e.g. Canadian TVP factories, and whatnot).
I recall a CBC video covering an attempt at producing soy protein domestically, and that seems like a much more sound investment!
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Comment on I think Tildes moderators and admins may need to make a decision regarding how to handle Harry Potter related posts in ~tildes
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Comment on I think Tildes moderators and admins may need to make a decision regarding how to handle Harry Potter related posts in ~tildes
kacey Link ParentJust replying to say, thank you for an original suggestion, at least. I don't think I can continue looking at this thread for my own mental health, though, so I'm bowing out.Just replying to say, thank you for an original suggestion, at least.
I don't think I can continue looking at this thread for my own mental health, though, so I'm bowing out.
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Comment on I think Tildes moderators and admins may need to make a decision regarding how to handle Harry Potter related posts in ~tildes
kacey Link ParentFor context: I intentionally missed this, but there was a thread a couple days ago which got locked due to, what I'd imagine was, tonnes of people slinging "Malice" tags at each other in order to...For context: I intentionally missed this, but there was a thread a couple days ago which got locked due to, what I'd imagine was, tonnes of people slinging "Malice" tags at each other in order to make a point.
(edit) I think this question has come up because whenever someone says "Harry Potter cool", people pour into the comment section to remind them that their support legitimizes the beliefs of a cruel and petty woman hellbent on eliminating trans women from Earth. This repetitive discussion distressed the people who wanted to talk about wizards, hence the thread.
No worries, I have no idea either, and that's an excellent question! I just assumed, which was rather lame of me -- if he were pressed into that position, it'd be hard to hold it against him. It looks like he decided to leave his last riding to an (apparently, well spoken, and smart) 18-year old and ran unopposed internally for the NDP seat in Vancouver Centre, though (TIL that acclaimed can mean "winning without any opposition or competition, leading to an automatic victory for the candidate")
Ohhhhh yeah no worries there either. I can totally relate. He's also overseeing some enormous cuts to federal services and staff, which is worrisome: many of those people are working skilled and specialized positions, so losing them to the private sector means having a less effective government overall (sold to us as "streamlining"). We're never getting them back, either, so all that institutional knowledge is gone forever.
IMO that's an astute observation. I've also heard him described as a Conservative, circa 2000s. These are all reasons I'm extremely glad to see an opinionated NDP emerge. And I really hope that this time we get proportional representation. Because otherwise this slide will continue, and I doubt the country will survive a "compromise" Liberal prime minister in 2036 that behaves like the Conservatives of today.