Solar modules now cost 8.9 US cents per Watt (higher in US, India due to trade barriers). Solar panels are cheaper than ordinary fencing materials. For rooftop installs, non-module cost is still $0.50-3.00 per Watt, so further module price declines make little difference.
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By 2030 most countries will have spot power prices of zero in sunny hours. This will be passed on to end consumers, to encourage them to shift power demand to sunny periods by electric vehicle and battery charging, preheating, precooling, etc.
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It's very easy to say "but batteries!" and those are definitely part of the solution. California has over 14GW of batteries in a grid with roughly 50GW peak demand, and the reliability of the grid has improved as its carbon emissions go down.
...but batteries are still small. In 2024, about 181GWh of lithium-ion stationary storage was deployed worldwide, plus 974GWh lithium-ion batteries in vehicles. (www.bnef.com).
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There is no way we can build a big enough battery to shift energy from summer to winter. The economics of battery storage are nearly impossible at one cycle a year.
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Examples of real long-duration storage technologies are pumped hydro (reservoir size is decoupled from turbine capacity), or big tanks of molten salt or hot water, or hot rocks. But all of these do still cost a lot of money if they are only cycling once per year.
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BNEF’s New Energy Outlook model doesn’t want to just solve the intermittency problem with loads of batteries. This is because the batteries get lower utilization rates the more you build. Batteries cannibalize batteries long before you get 100% clean power.
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Europeans shouldn't feel guilty about using electricity for airconditioning, it'll all come from the sun anyway by 2030. Solar generation times and seasons match airconditioning demand pretty well, which is good news for really hot countries as well.
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Data centers are increasing power demand, but let's keep a sense of proportion. BNEF estimates total electricity demand from data centers of 373TWh in 2024 (1.2% of global generation) and expects this to increase to 1,596TWh (4.4% of global) in 2035. (www.bnef.com )
Ordinary people have no idea how much progress we’ve made. Tell people at parties that UK carbon emissions in 2023 were at their lowest level since 1879, for example. Most developed economies are now reducing carbon emissions without lowering quality of life.
I don't think regional carbon emissions is a great metric to go off of, the sad truth is that most major reductions in carbon emissions from nations like the US/UK/European countries are because...
I don't think regional carbon emissions is a great metric to go off of, the sad truth is that most major reductions in carbon emissions from nations like the US/UK/European countries are because they've shipped off more and more of their carbon polluting industry to developing nations, mostly China/India. Especially true for the UK which has basically exported all of its emissions over the last 20 years.
Worldwide emissions are still growing, though it seems like the increase is slowing down ever so slightly. The rest of the 2020s will be paramount to discovering if we're actually making any real progress on slowing down/stopping the growth.
I don't disagree that we need to do more and faster but there is some real progress being made.
It would be wrong to assume that this reduction in emissions in rich countries was only achieved by offshoring production overseas – by transferring emissions to manufacturing economies such as China and India. In the chart we see that consumption-based emissions – which adjust for emissions from goods that are imported or exported – have also fallen. Some emissions have been exported overseas, but this is not the only driver of this decline
I don't disagree that we need to do more and faster but there is some real progress being made.
I don't understand how my comment in any way is "claiming proof we're in decline" by "blaming the deindustrialisation of the West" as you say... Perhaps you misunderstood? My problem with this...
I don't understand how my comment in any way is "claiming proof we're in decline" by "blaming the deindustrialisation of the West" as you say... Perhaps you misunderstood? My problem with this "deindustrialization of the West" as you put it, is that we're not actually achieving a reduction in carbon emissions globally, yet we're acting like its mission accomplished when the reality is that most of the emissions have just moved next door because of the rapid development of the rest of the world, but its still the same atmosphere and the same air we're all stuck breathing.
We can't posture and tell developing nations not to do the things that we have already done, its very easy to have huge reductions in emissions when we've already built all our roads, cities, and infrastructure. The hard part is how do we work with the rest of the world to achieve those same goals without causing the same problems we did for the last 100 years. There needs to be a path forward for these countries to achieve prosperity that doesn't result in an ever increasing spiral of emissions, that's the real hurdle that's facing us.
I wasn't very clear, but the usual claim my comment referred to is that 1) the deindustrialisation causes the emissions drop, and 2) the observed emissions drop is proof that deindustrialisation...
I wasn't very clear, but the usual claim my comment referred to is that 1) the deindustrialisation causes the emissions drop, and 2) the observed emissions drop is proof that deindustrialisation has happened. My "decline" comment was in reference to #2, as in "decline of manufacturing sector".
Your comment asserts the narrative of point #1, and implicitly assumes #2.
China may have peaked, but there are a growing list of other countries that are taking its place, India and Indonesia both saw gains of 6.5% and 13% respectively year over year, partially because...
China may have peaked, but there are a growing list of other countries that are taking its place, India and Indonesia both saw gains of 6.5% and 13% respectively year over year, partially because China is actually becoming more expensive. The world really just wants to shift its dirty work to the poorest countries and until we get a handle on that it'll be tough to actually make a global impact.
I'm not sure how much this should be blamed on poor countries exporting more to rich countries? It's also true that people in poor countries understandably want at least some of what rich...
I'm not sure how much this should be blamed on poor countries exporting more to rich countries? It's also true that people in poor countries understandably want at least some of what rich countries have, and that will tend to drive increased domestic demand for goods and services.
It's not all about us.
But to the extent that it is due to rising exports to the US, I guess tariffs will make that harder.
I made this distinction with this line: "The world really just wants to shift its dirty work to the poorest countries and until we get a handle on that it'll be tough to actually make a global...
I'm not sure how much this should be blamed on poor countries exporting more to rich countries? It's also true that people in poor countries understandably want at least some of what rich countries have, and that will tend to drive increased domestic demand for goods and services.
I made this distinction with this line: "The world really just wants to shift its dirty work to the poorest countries and until we get a handle on that it'll be tough to actually make a global impact."
This is not the fault of the poorer countries in the slightest, they're being forced by economic factors made by countries like the US, Europe, and China into the worst jobs for the least money possible. It's a huge problem that's been happening for far too long.
We can see that Indonesian exports have been growing massively over the last decade, sometimes as much as 40% in a single year. Almost half of those exports are things like coal, oil, cooking fats, and raw materials like iron/steel. China is by far the largest buyer of these goods. Production of these materials are often done in terrible working conditions and slave labor is common.
When I bought my house I was very excited to put in solar. However: My house is surrounded by beautiful, very tall, 100+ year old conifer trees, including a sequoia that has a trunk over 2 feet in...
When I bought my house I was very excited to put in solar.
However:
My house is surrounded by beautiful, very tall, 100+ year old conifer trees, including a sequoia that has a trunk over 2 feet in diameter. They block the sun from the roof in the winter. The Google thing doesn’t seem to give a rating anymore, it used to be C+.
My power co-op already gets 86% of its power from hydroelectric. We get 0% from fossil fuels.
My power currently costs $.064-.069 per kWh + $5 a month.
To really take advantage I’d need to replace my gas furnace and hot water heater, which is going to happen at some point but they work fine now. Aside from the cost, I have no clue how to figure out the added power usage.
I’m going to need a new roof in about 5 years.
The Google sunroof thing seems to be unaware of my power co-op, which costs 60% less than county power. At county rates I’d save $4,200 over 20 years, I’m already saving almost $10k over that timespan using my co-op.
On the other hand, my power usage is highest when using the air conditioner in the summer. We get almost 16 hours of sunlight during that time, and it’s a dry season so it’s rarely even overcast.
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Does anyone know what happens at the end of life for solar panels? Do they break? Has efficiency changed so much it’s a cost saving to rebuy the panels? I’ve heard they end up in a landfill rather than being recycled, not sure if that’s changed or was possibly never true.
I don't know, but there is this bit from the thread: But there is also this article.
I don't know, but there is this bit from the thread:
While moving to a circular economy with 100% recycling rates is essential in the long run, it’s not a challenge for PV in particular; few PV panels have been recycled to date only because the vast majority are still in use.
For this, look at your gas/propane company bill. It should tell you how many cubic feet or btu of gas is being used. From there, there are conversions that can be done to determine what it would...
To really take advantage I’d need to replace my gas furnace and hot water heater, which is going to happen at some point but they work fine now. Aside from the cost, I have no clue how to figure out the added power usage.
For this, look at your gas/propane company bill. It should tell you how many cubic feet or btu of gas is being used. From there, there are conversions that can be done to determine what it would be using electricity. Keep in mind electricity is less efficient at creating heat than burning gas, although this can be cancelled out with solar and/or increased gas rates.
Unless you use a heat pump, which is significantly more efficient than gas (~3x in normal operation), and also acts as an AC. When paired with PV panels, nothing beats it. When paired to the grid,...
Unless you use a heat pump, which is significantly more efficient than gas (~3x in normal operation), and also acts as an AC. When paired with PV panels, nothing beats it. When paired to the grid, it still depends on your location whether it will be convenient cost-wise in the long run.
So, I may have missed it, but I'm surprised that increasing electricity prices were not highlighted as drivers for new installations of rooftop and domestic solar. Where I live, there has been a...
So, I may have missed it, but I'm surprised that increasing electricity prices were not highlighted as drivers for new installations of rooftop and domestic solar. Where I live, there has been a 25% in electricity rates during the past 3 years. We got our panels two years ago and I knew that the repayment was going to be on the order of 17 years when competing against simple mutual fund investment. However, I also anticipated that energy costs would rise and, because the finance costs and energy generated were more or less fixed, the increasing electrical utility rates would have the effect of reducing my repayment horizon by increasing the value of the good the solar panels were producing.
We aren't net producers, or else I would have an interest in the price of electricity going infinite, but it makes the portion of what I do produce more valuable. If you think energy rates will be more susceptible to inflation than other sectors, and you are considering solar panels, you should know that higher future energy prices will shorten you payback horizon.
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I also liked
I don't think regional carbon emissions is a great metric to go off of, the sad truth is that most major reductions in carbon emissions from nations like the US/UK/European countries are because they've shipped off more and more of their carbon polluting industry to developing nations, mostly China/India. Especially true for the UK which has basically exported all of its emissions over the last 20 years.
Worldwide emissions are still growing, though it seems like the increase is slowing down ever so slightly. The rest of the 2020s will be paramount to discovering if we're actually making any real progress on slowing down/stopping the growth.
I don't disagree that we need to do more and faster but there is some real progress being made.
THE PROPHECY IS TRUE
I don't understand how my comment in any way is "claiming proof we're in decline" by "blaming the deindustrialisation of the West" as you say... Perhaps you misunderstood? My problem with this "deindustrialization of the West" as you put it, is that we're not actually achieving a reduction in carbon emissions globally, yet we're acting like its mission accomplished when the reality is that most of the emissions have just moved next door because of the rapid development of the rest of the world, but its still the same atmosphere and the same air we're all stuck breathing.
We can't posture and tell developing nations not to do the things that we have already done, its very easy to have huge reductions in emissions when we've already built all our roads, cities, and infrastructure. The hard part is how do we work with the rest of the world to achieve those same goals without causing the same problems we did for the last 100 years. There needs to be a path forward for these countries to achieve prosperity that doesn't result in an ever increasing spiral of emissions, that's the real hurdle that's facing us.
I wasn't very clear, but the usual claim my comment referred to is that 1) the deindustrialisation causes the emissions drop, and 2) the observed emissions drop is proof that deindustrialisation has happened. My "decline" comment was in reference to #2, as in "decline of manufacturing sector".
Your comment asserts the narrative of point #1, and implicitly assumes #2.
China may have peaked. It will take a couple years to know for sure.
China may have peaked, but there are a growing list of other countries that are taking its place, India and Indonesia both saw gains of 6.5% and 13% respectively year over year, partially because China is actually becoming more expensive. The world really just wants to shift its dirty work to the poorest countries and until we get a handle on that it'll be tough to actually make a global impact.
I'm not sure how much this should be blamed on poor countries exporting more to rich countries? It's also true that people in poor countries understandably want at least some of what rich countries have, and that will tend to drive increased domestic demand for goods and services.
It's not all about us.
But to the extent that it is due to rising exports to the US, I guess tariffs will make that harder.
I made this distinction with this line: "The world really just wants to shift its dirty work to the poorest countries and until we get a handle on that it'll be tough to actually make a global impact."
This is not the fault of the poorer countries in the slightest, they're being forced by economic factors made by countries like the US, Europe, and China into the worst jobs for the least money possible. It's a huge problem that's been happening for far too long.
We can see that Indonesian exports have been growing massively over the last decade, sometimes as much as 40% in a single year. Almost half of those exports are things like coal, oil, cooking fats, and raw materials like iron/steel. China is by far the largest buyer of these goods. Production of these materials are often done in terrible working conditions and slave labor is common.
Everyone blames it on deindustrialisation of the West and claims it's proof we're in decline, in my experience.
When I bought my house I was very excited to put in solar.
However:
The Google sunroof thing seems to be unaware of my power co-op, which costs 60% less than county power. At county rates I’d save $4,200 over 20 years, I’m already saving almost $10k over that timespan using my co-op.
On the other hand, my power usage is highest when using the air conditioner in the summer. We get almost 16 hours of sunlight during that time, and it’s a dry season so it’s rarely even overcast.
————————-
Does anyone know what happens at the end of life for solar panels? Do they break? Has efficiency changed so much it’s a cost saving to rebuy the panels? I’ve heard they end up in a landfill rather than being recycled, not sure if that’s changed or was possibly never true.
I don't know, but there is this bit from the thread:
But there is also this article.
That article is more in line with what I understood.
For this, look at your gas/propane company bill. It should tell you how many cubic feet or btu of gas is being used. From there, there are conversions that can be done to determine what it would be using electricity. Keep in mind electricity is less efficient at creating heat than burning gas, although this can be cancelled out with solar and/or increased gas rates.
Unless you use a heat pump, which is significantly more efficient than gas (~3x in normal operation), and also acts as an AC. When paired with PV panels, nothing beats it. When paired to the grid, it still depends on your location whether it will be convenient cost-wise in the long run.
Solar is one of the few things keeping me slightly optimistic about the future
So, I may have missed it, but I'm surprised that increasing electricity prices were not highlighted as drivers for new installations of rooftop and domestic solar. Where I live, there has been a 25% in electricity rates during the past 3 years. We got our panels two years ago and I knew that the repayment was going to be on the order of 17 years when competing against simple mutual fund investment. However, I also anticipated that energy costs would rise and, because the finance costs and energy generated were more or less fixed, the increasing electrical utility rates would have the effect of reducing my repayment horizon by increasing the value of the good the solar panels were producing.
We aren't net producers, or else I would have an interest in the price of electricity going infinite, but it makes the portion of what I do produce more valuable. If you think energy rates will be more susceptible to inflation than other sectors, and you are considering solar panels, you should know that higher future energy prices will shorten you payback horizon.