40 votes

Battery costs just plunged 70% — this changes everything

27 comments

  1. [4]
    Zuexs
    Link
    When Ford Motor company - despite cancelling most of their EV plans - starts a whole business around static battery installations, you know things are about to go crazy....

    When Ford Motor company - despite cancelling most of their EV plans - starts a whole business around static battery installations, you know things are about to go crazy.

    https://www.fromtheroad.ford.com/us/en/articles/2026/introducing-ford-energy

    I for one can't wait to add more kWH of LiFePo4 batteries to my home storage.

    23 votes
    1. [3]
      Narry
      Link Parent
      Right now I have a couple of EcoFlow battery backup systems that I would consider to be more emergency use than a real home backup solution. If Ford could bring real backups that can be installed...

      Right now I have a couple of EcoFlow battery backup systems that I would consider to be more emergency use than a real home backup solution. If Ford could bring real backups that can be installed for a much lower price, and give me more than just passing capacity, that would be amazing.

      9 votes
      1. [2]
        Zuexs
        Link Parent
        Ford will always be Ford, so I expect some weird issues, but heavy tinkering is worth it for the right $/kWH price ;)

        Ford will always be Ford, so I expect some weird issues, but heavy tinkering is worth it for the right $/kWH price ;)

        2 votes
        1. Narry
          Link Parent
          "Why is it that any time my house kicks over to Ford's battery backup, my lights turn blue and my HomePods all start playing Freebird?" I wonder if they'll make a Shelby edition of the home...

          "Why is it that any time my house kicks over to Ford's battery backup, my lights turn blue and my HomePods all start playing Freebird?"

          I wonder if they'll make a Shelby edition of the home battery backup?

          3 votes
  2. turnipostrophe
    Link
    I have seen in this video, from Mr. Viking, that the cost of battery for electricity has fallen by 70% in 24 months (2 year). He says that, in the last 4 years, battery has gone from 10 GW to 100...

    I have seen in this video, from Mr. Viking, that the cost of battery for electricity has fallen by 70% in 24 months (2 year). He says that, in the last 4 years, battery has gone from 10 GW to 100 GW. In the last 5 years, battery's maximum cycles has gone 2x higher.

    The video says that global batteries installed will go from 100 GW in 2025 to 2 TW in 2035. Therefore, it will replace the gas plants.

    16 votes
  3. [7]
    carsonc
    Link
    For comparison, a 16 kWh LiFePo battery on eBay costs <$500 USD in the US. A fancy Tesla Powerwall with 13.5 kWh sells on eBay for >$8000 USD. This was not the case 1 year ago when I bought a 1...

    For comparison, a 16 kWh LiFePo battery on eBay costs <$500 USD in the US. A fancy Tesla Powerwall with 13.5 kWh sells on eBay for >$8000 USD. This was not the case 1 year ago when I bought a 1 kWh battery for $150. Thank you for posting this. I think it is time to get an affordable battery backup for the house.

    11 votes
    1. [6]
      VoidSage
      Link Parent
      Where are you seeing $500 16 KWH LiFePo batteries on eBay? Cheapest I can find are $2-3k

      Where are you seeing $500 16 KWH LiFePo batteries on eBay?

      Cheapest I can find are $2-3k

      8 votes
      1. [3]
        carsonc
        Link Parent
        I can't find it now either. I think someone listed it for the wrong price, realized their mistake, and took the listing down. Still, 16 kWh for $1,700 is a lot less expensive than 13 kWh for $8000.

        I can't find it now either. I think someone listed it for the wrong price, realized their mistake, and took the listing down. Still, 16 kWh for $1,700 is a lot less expensive than 13 kWh for $8000.

        10 votes
        1. [2]
          th0mcat
          Link Parent
          I wonder if you saw this battery box. https://www.ebay.com/itm/188396951723

          I wonder if you saw this battery box.

          https://www.ebay.com/itm/188396951723

          1 vote
          1. carsonc
            Link Parent
            I believe that it was a full unit, just mis-priced. Which is why it is not there any more, not just marked as sold. Even so, I'm still interested in this kind of unit, especially if I can figure...

            I believe that it was a full unit, just mis-priced. Which is why it is not there any more, not just marked as sold. Even so, I'm still interested in this kind of unit, especially if I can figure out how to integrate it with the solar inverter or a separate backup interface.

            2 votes
      2. [2]
        Nsutdwa
        Link Parent
        What you're seeing is about what I'm seeing, this one is €4.2k for 32.15 kWh, exactly in that bracket you mentioned. It's very interesting as a domestic proposition, but I don't have any roof...

        What you're seeing is about what I'm seeing, this one is €4.2k for 32.15 kWh, exactly in that bracket you mentioned. It's very interesting as a domestic proposition, but I don't have any roof access or area where I could mount panels. If I did, I'd definitely start running the numbers to stick something like this in a garage.

        2 votes
        1. mat
          Link Parent
          32kWh is a LOT. I have a 5kWh battery and that'll do my house for around 12 hours (and in summer the solar picks up the rest of the time). My neighbour has 15kWh of storage and he's basically a...

          32kWh is a LOT. I have a 5kWh battery and that'll do my house for around 12 hours (and in summer the solar picks up the rest of the time). My neighbour has 15kWh of storage and he's basically a one-man local grid buffer system.

          Unless you're doing all your heating and cooling and cooking electrically, and charging your car, 32kWh is probably a bit much. Mind you, your link suggests you're in Norway so you probably are doing all those things.

          You don't need solar to benefit from a battery though. All you need is cheap off-peak power. I can get 4p/kWh in the middle of the night, charge my battery (in winter I do this, not in summer) and then not buy power during the day at 40p/kWh, which is a significant saving. This also helps shift grid-load around, which is good for wider sustainable generation goals.

          7 votes
  4. [8]
    Artren
    Link
    So does this mean it's time to get solar and battery storage installed at my home? Would absolutely love to do that.

    So does this mean it's time to get solar and battery storage installed at my home? Would absolutely love to do that.

    8 votes
    1. infpossibilityspace
      Link Parent
      It's cheaper than ever, but it's still going to take a decade (minimum) to pay for itself in pure electricity savings, possibly closer to 15-20 years. But you do get other benefits - it increases...

      It's cheaper than ever, but it's still going to take a decade (minimum) to pay for itself in pure electricity savings, possibly closer to 15-20 years.

      But you do get other benefits - it increases the value of your home, so even if you don't live there long enough to earn back the investment through energy savings, you might come out on top after you sell it (though this is a gamble on future house prices in your area).

      Energy price swings will affect you less. Topical relevance aside, it's possible this may be less relevant as we transition further towards grid-scale renewables (or more relevant due to global warming?).

      The batteries can help in a power cut (depending on size) and also help charge an electric car, if you have/plan to get one.

      So there are plenty of reasons to get it, but there's also so much investment in battery technology and manufacturing right now, it may become even cheaper and more efficient if you wait a bit longer.

      5 votes
    2. turnipostrophe
      Link Parent
      I am not sure if the price for batteries at the home are as low as the batteries for the power plant. However, it is possible. Perhaps it is different in every country and state. For example, I...

      I am not sure if the price for batteries at the home are as low as the batteries for the power plant. However, it is possible. Perhaps it is different in every country and state. For example, I believe Mr. Viking is from Australia, where it is very sunny. However, in cold places, perhaps it is less economical.

      But I believe that it could be useful to have batteries for the home no matter what. If there is enough energy for plants, then there is enough energy for solar panel, in my opinion. Also, if there is a large storm that breaks the power lines, the batteries could provide electricity before the repairing. However, perhaps this depends on the configuration.

      If you have many acres of land, then it is possible to install solar panel on the ground and rotate with the sun. Otherwise, the solar panels on the rooftops are still effective.

      4 votes
    3. [5]
      turmacar
      Link Parent
      Just to give some anecdotal numbers. I got ~10kWh of batteries with ~1kW of solar panels installed last September in WA. (Jackery) It hasn't been quite a year but I've been keeping running stats....

      Just to give some anecdotal numbers.

      I got ~10kWh of batteries with ~1kW of solar panels installed last September in WA. (Jackery)

      It hasn't been quite a year but I've been keeping running stats.

      The solar panels (~$1k) generate ~$200/yr, they'll pay for themselves after ~5 years. It's a very small set, they're mostly geared towards taking the solar/battery set camping where they'd keep whatever you wanted charged the whole time.

      The batteries (~$6k) charging during non-peak ($0.09/kWh) and running most of the house during peak hours ($0.22/kWh), save ~$400/yr. That's a significantly longer ~15 year payoff. But they've already been really nice during the occasional power outage.

      Installation price I'm not counting because it makes me feel better :) but ~$2k is apparently average. Cheaper/more batteries would be nice to factor in less wear on the batteries, and upgrades don't need a professional/permitted installer. I also have a gas furnace so they weren't stressed much in winter.

      For pure money saving/generation I'd prioritize solar and target batteries as a backup solution unless your electrical price has bigger swings. Electrical companies will give you bill credit for electricity that goes back into the grid.

      3 votes
      1. [2]
        OBLIVIATER
        Link Parent
        2k seems incredibly low for an installation cost but maybe solar here in NC is just overpriced.

        2k seems incredibly low for an installation cost but maybe solar here in NC is just overpriced.

        3 votes
        1. turmacar
          Link Parent
          That's what I was told to expect, ended up being ~$4k but I'm not sure how much of that was them having to bring part of the main panel up to code for the permit. This was just for the sub-panel,...

          That's what I was told to expect, ended up being ~$4k but I'm not sure how much of that was them having to bring part of the main panel up to code for the permit. This was just for the sub-panel, they didn't install the solar or batteries really, that's all plug-n-play to the sub-panel / "Smart Transfer switch".

      2. [2]
        Nsutdwa
        Link Parent
        What are the rough dimensions (and weight, now I come to think of it) of your solar panels? Are you saying you can pack them up and take them (car-)camping?

        What are the rough dimensions (and weight, now I come to think of it) of your solar panels? Are you saying you can pack them up and take them (car-)camping?

        1 vote
        1. turmacar
          Link Parent
          They're these. Folded up each one is about 3x2 feet and maybe 4 inches thick and about 25 lbs. Pretty manageable, and they came with a bag. It's not the smallest setup, probably more intended for...

          They're these.

          Folded up each one is about 3x2 feet and maybe 4 inches thick and about 25 lbs. Pretty manageable, and they came with a bag. It's not the smallest setup, probably more intended for RVing but they could be packed relatively easy in a car if there's space. Probably wouldn't want to put too much weight on top of them.

          Each panel has it's own connector that daisy-chains to the next so you could only take a few if you wanted, but that would mostly save on weight.

          1 vote
  5. [7]
    adutchman
    Link
    I've been saying this for years now: solar combined with wind and storage are inevitable. Government support is nice, yes, but there is no way back now. Coal was already on the way out, gas is...

    I've been saying this for years now: solar combined with wind and storage are inevitable. Government support is nice, yes, but there is no way back now. Coal was already on the way out, gas is next. Phasing out nuclear won't make sense for a while, but building new plants does not make financial sense anymore.

    8 votes
    1. [6]
      jredd23
      Link Parent
      nuclear energy cost per kwh is from what I have read the cheapest. however, the building cost and other regulatory hurdles the hard part, not to mention environment impact. I am not convinced that...

      nuclear energy cost per kwh is from what I have read the cheapest. however, the building cost and other regulatory hurdles the hard part, not to mention environment impact. I am not convinced that solar/wind and storage solutions will win. Hybrid solutions, a combination of all of the above will probably will be with us for awhile though I do hope that a 'cleaner' method is rapidly adopted.

      5 votes
      1. [2]
        nukeman
        Link Parent
        Existing nuclear is, new builds in western countries aren’t however. If we can get costs down, nuclear can likely play a role in providing baseload (I know there’s folks who dispute that...

        Existing nuclear is, new builds in western countries aren’t however. If we can get costs down, nuclear can likely play a role in providing baseload (I know there’s folks who dispute that usefulness of the concept with renewables, but it will likely fill in what solar/wind/batteries cannot) and frequency regulation (being predictably rotational versus solar or wind). I could see some smaller non-industrial countries (esp. the Pacific islands) going on wind and solar alone, but until an industrialized country adapts it the only examples we have of low-carbon grids involve nuclear and/or hydro.

        4 votes
        1. adutchman
          Link Parent
          I am one of the people who think the idea of baseload is outdated. If solar is say, 30% of the price of nuclear, even using it through (inefficient) storage is cheaper than using nuclear....

          I am one of the people who think the idea of baseload is outdated. If solar is say, 30% of the price of nuclear, even using it through (inefficient) storage is cheaper than using nuclear. Frequency was the main argument for a long time, but frequency regulating batteries are proving very effective (there is a big installation in Scotland I know of, and probably a few in Australia as well).

          1 vote
      2. [2]
        OBLIVIATER
        Link Parent
        Price per kwh for nuclear is dirt cheap, but if you factor in the amount of wasted money due to the sheer time it takes to get a plant online, it doesn't really make much sense compared to how...

        Price per kwh for nuclear is dirt cheap, but if you factor in the amount of wasted money due to the sheer time it takes to get a plant online, it doesn't really make much sense compared to how lightning fast it is to get renewables with battery storage online.

        Of course the best time to start building nuclear was 20 years ago and the 2nd best time is today; but as renewables and battery technology continue to advance at incredible rates, it's getting tougher to see a future where traditional nuclear gets a massive resurgence in the West. Maybe if we continue to see advances in smaller, quicker nuclear plants that are much easier to slot into a grid.

        2 votes
        1. adutchman
          Link Parent
          Even small plants do not fit into a picture where renewables are dirt cheap. With cheap electricity, we need storage and flexible assets, not baseload.

          Even small plants do not fit into a picture where renewables are dirt cheap. With cheap electricity, we need storage and flexible assets, not baseload.

          1 vote
      3. adutchman
        Link Parent
        That is true for existing nuclear yes but only marginally. For new generation, it's not even close, and with solars learning rate, that picture will change as well in a few years time. The main...

        nuclear energy cost per kwh is from what I have read the cheapest.

        That is true for existing nuclear yes but only marginally. For new generation, it's not even close, and with solars learning rate, that picture will change as well in a few years time. The main insight imo is that batteries and solar prices are going down so rapidly, that pretty much nothing else is able to compete on price. The learning rate we are seeing is in a way similar to computers or the internet: I think we are at the "that internet thing is pretty neat for ordering books" state of solar.

        2 votes