Yes, it's important to recognize that almost everyone who has it will be fine. The mortality rate is relatively low, generally somewhere in the < 5% range (likely even lower than that) for...
Yes, it's important to recognize that almost everyone who has it will be fine. The mortality rate is relatively low, generally somewhere in the < 5% range (likely even lower than that) for everyone younger than 70 or so, which is the large majority of people. So over 95% of those people who get it will be fine.
I agree that people generally shouldn't be worrying that they, personally, will die from it. But that doesn't mean that it's not dangerous, it just means that you're looking at it from the wrong perspective. This is much more of a societal/systemic threat than an individual one. That's why stopping the spread as much as possible is the important part.
I've also read that 5% of cases need ICU treatment. That'd be 3.5 million cases. You'd have to really stretch it out for that to be manageable. And if the healthcare system is that overburdened,...
I've also read that 5% of cases need ICU treatment. That'd be 3.5 million cases. You'd have to really stretch it out for that to be manageable. And if the healthcare system is that overburdened, I'd expect mortality to rise. Italy is struggling with a few thousand cases right now, never mind millions.
While I agree that panicking is unwise, I do still think there is far more potential harm in underestimating the danger than overestimating it, especially when so far the worst that has come of...
While I agree that panicking is unwise, I do still think there is far more potential harm in underestimating the danger than overestimating it, especially when so far the worst that has come of that is some irrational panic buying leading to empty shelves and the occasional fist-fight in supermarkets.
Also worth keeping in mind that the latest news out of Italy is that things there are really not looking good. See:
Today, Italy has 10,149 cases of the coronavirus. There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care. Doctors and nurses are unable to tend to everybody. They lack machines to ventilate all those gasping for air.
Now the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI) has published guidelines for the criteria that doctors and nurses should follow in these extraordinary circumstances. The document begins by likening the moral choices facing Italian doctors to the forms of wartime triage that are required in the field of “catastrophe medicine.” Instead of providing intensive care to all patients who need it, its authors suggest, it may become necessary to follow “the most widely shared criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources.”
Acting a bit over the top is better than ignoring or downplaying the threat, IMO. And it should be noted that according to the WHO, Italy has the second highest ranked healthcare systems in the...
It may be top notch, but are there enough beds for this unexpected and widespread crisis? Just because it provides excellent care doesn't mean it's far enough below capacity to support everyone...
It may be top notch, but are there enough beds for this unexpected and widespread crisis? Just because it provides excellent care doesn't mean it's far enough below capacity to support everyone who's going to need it if many of them need care all at once on top of all of the normal health care needs.
Coronavirus will overwhelm the Australian healthcare system. You do not have enough ICU beds; enough nurses; enough respiratory doctors; enough equipment.
Coronavirus will overwhelm the Australian healthcare system. You do not have enough ICU beds; enough nurses; enough respiratory doctors; enough equipment.
I dunno. The article implicitly assumes that people are worried for themselves. If they're self-quarantining, that is evidently not the case. They are worried about the nation as a whole and/or...
I dunno. The article implicitly assumes that people are worried for themselves. If they're self-quarantining, that is evidently not the case. They are worried about the nation as a whole and/or vulnerable people around them, which imo are legit objects of that worry.
Right, and like I said, I generally agree with him from that perspective. I've tried editing the title to make that point more obvious, since I think the original title comes off a little more...
Right, and like I said, I generally agree with him from that perspective. I've tried editing the title to make that point more obvious, since I think the original title comes off a little more like, "this isn't a big deal at all." The way the article was written doesn't help either, since it doesn't get around to that part of the message until the very end, and I think at least some people are reacting to it before making it that far.
Ehhh, I read the whole thing. Still had the impression that he's as self-centered as some people here say or that he has not a clue of how disease works. He doesn't seem to care how others are...
Ehhh, I read the whole thing. Still had the impression that he's as self-centered as some people here say or that he has not a clue of how disease works. He doesn't seem to care how others are affected and his "let's focus on the 3%" doesn't work - because we can only really help them by demanding the govt increase ICU capacities and by not spreading the disease, e.g. freaking out.
Granted, some of the stuff he mentioned others doing is overcautious (quarantining if you were in contact with him before he was in contact with the disease) but even then, he says himself that his doctors said he probably picked it up locally, which means those people quarantining do have a point.
But oh well, someone's always complaining. If we weather a heavy disease by drastic measures, afterwards people will ask "What about that oh so evil disease everyone was freaking out about? Nothing happened!" Yeah, that's kind of the point of freaking out.
This sounds like it's written by an angry narcissist. No, "Entire businesses in Melbourne and Sydney" were not shut down because of him, but because of the confirmed presence of the virus. So the...
This sounds like it's written by an angry narcissist. No, "Entire businesses in Melbourne and Sydney" were not shut down because of him, but because of the confirmed presence of the virus.
So the guy went to one of his country's newspapers to basically bitch about how his colleagues & family treated him. He has the balls to say "Please stop the hysteria", when all he cares about is that he gets treated better… when in the same breath he describes symptoms of "unbearable pain" and "brain tumour on the precipice of exploding".
Rightful asshole. I'd bet a few australian dollars he got treated like this by his family and colleagues for reasons that have nothing to do with the virus.
I'm in Seattle, which is basically the epicenter of the outbreak in the US. Our local university had to develop their own coronavirus test because our federal government dropped the ball. I would...
The federal government set up 100 testing clinics around the country this week
I'm in Seattle, which is basically the epicenter of the outbreak in the US.
Do you think hysteria drove government preparedness or the other way around, or do you think those things happened independently of one another? I know people in Germany didn't freak out and our...
Do you think hysteria drove government preparedness or the other way around, or do you think those things happened independently of one another? I know people in Germany didn't freak out and our goverment preparedness is... mediocre. If I could "buy" goverment preparedness with public freak-out, I would.
I completely agree with you. See my example elsewhere about the Heinsberg district and how more than a quarter of german cases can be attributed to that. An earlier restriction on travel and...
I completely agree with you. See my example elsewhere about the Heinsberg district and how more than a quarter of german cases can be attributed to that. An earlier restriction on travel and assemblies would have bought us a lot of time.
Does sound like someone that's very self-centered and doesn't understand the impact they (as an infected and contagious individual) could have on others, even after those others mentioned their...
While I’m very aware COVID-19 can be lethal for the elderly and anyone with a compromised immune system or respiratory difficulties, the experience of a young, relatively fit patient seems out of proportion to the panic and fear I’ve encountered since my diagnosis.
I went from patient to pariah.
But from this personal experience I feel it’s time to calm down
My headache was unusual. Beyond that, the symptoms were a mild sore throat and lethargy.
Does sound like someone that's very self-centered and doesn't understand the impact they (as an infected and contagious individual) could have on others, even after those others mentioned their concerns. Just because you are young, healthy and can afford to take sick leave does not mean those are not concerns for others.
Yep. I'm not worried because I might die with a 0.1% chance if I catch it. I'm worried because I could infect some of the many people with worse chances. Family members with a weak immune system....
Yep. I'm not worried because I might die with a 0.1% chance if I catch it. I'm worried because I could infect some of the many people with worse chances. Family members with a weak immune system. Those with pre-existing conditions. The elderly. I don't want to risk spreading it to anyone in my family, mostly because they'd have it worse than me.
And rightfully shutdown they were. Australia seems to have the situation under control precisely because they were shut down. Aggressive quarantine is the difference between someone infecting two...
And rightfully shutdown they were. Australia seems to have the situation under control precisely because they were shut down. Aggressive quarantine is the difference between someone infecting two people before they're isolated and infecting no one. And if everyone infects two people, we get a situation like italy or china.
Germany was looking much like australia for the longest time too. Occasional ingress from hotspots, but mostly manageable. Then an infected person attended a carnival event. Two weeks later, we have 400 cases in a district of a quarter million people, despite strong effort to quarantine suspected cases. That's one fourth of our overall cases, with many more clusters across the country linked to said hotspot.
This thing can go from real easy to real bad in no time, which is why the people are freaking out a bit.
We are all in this together, staring down the barrel of a virus that will likely sweep through every workplace in Australia.
I really hope it doesn't.
It’s time to focus on the 3 per cent of people infected who are at serious risk. And we should understand that 97 per cent of people infected will have symptoms ranging from a bad cold to flu, and will recover.
And if you want to help the 3%, what you do is you limit the spread of the disease by quarantining. Treatment thus far amounts to breathing for the patient and hoping he makes it, more or less. Prevention is where it's at, and freaking out a little bit is what keeps you vigilant.
Also, the fact that 80% of cases are very very "bland" means it spreads more easily. People who aren't sick beyond the seasonal norm won't quarantine unless they know someone with the virus. If it was worse and more characteristic, we wouldn't need to test so much to know who to isolate. People are freaking out because it's so mild (in most cases).
It's especially strange going from WHO recommendations to outright panic of friends. WHO doesn't even seem to recommend avoiding large gatherings if you're under 40. WHO just suggests washing your...
It's especially strange going from WHO recommendations to outright panic of friends. WHO doesn't even seem to recommend avoiding large gatherings if you're under 40. WHO just suggests washing your hands, skipping handshakes, coughing into your elbow, etc. The basics. The people I know are suggesting stocking up on a few weeks of food, canceling all events, and only working from home...
Let's not forget that both China and Italy are seeing younger people needing ICU beds too. Older people are far more likely to die, but that doesn't mean younger people do not need intensive...
Let's not forget that both China and Italy are seeing younger people needing ICU beds too. Older people are far more likely to die, but that doesn't mean younger people do not need intensive specialist hospital care to survive.
Being in Denmark where the country was shut the fuck down last night this guy sounds like an asshole who shouldn't be allowed to spew his self centered bullshit. I'm not worried about my health...
Being in Denmark where the country was shut the fuck down last night this guy sounds like an asshole who shouldn't be allowed to spew his self centered bullshit. I'm not worried about my health the slightest but when the prime minister goes on TV and says people WILL lose their job during this and a LOT of other things are uncertain for a long time and please do everything you can to stay at home I don't and shouldn't take that lightly. Other countries that hasn't been as affected yet: WATCH AND LEARN!
This article largely echoes how I've felt so far about the virus. Other countries have had it worse, so I obviously can't speak for them, but in the U.S. most states have few (if any) confirmed...
This article largely echoes how I've felt so far about the virus. Other countries have had it worse, so I obviously can't speak for them, but in the U.S. most states have few (if any) confirmed cases, and by comparison the flu has been far worse so far. While COVID-19 may have a higher fatality rate, the flu infects a dramatically higher number of people and so causes far more damage than Coronavirus has in half the time. Combine that with the fact that so many people don't bother with the flu vaccine and I just don't get the panic about this particular virus.
EDIT: I'm putting this here to reiterate that I'm focusing on the United States when I say this. I'm well aware that other countries are in dramatically different situations, and that for them, this reaction makes sense.
It's frankly obvious to everyone that the low confirmed case rates in the US is because of massive under-testing. A friend in Alabama (a "zero cases" state) was just telling me earlier about...
in the U.S. most states have few (if any) confirmed cases
It's frankly obvious to everyone that the low confirmed case rates in the US is because of massive under-testing.
A friend in Alabama (a "zero cases" state) was just telling me earlier about several highly suspicious cases matching all COVID-19 symptoms that can't get approval to be tested and thus are riding out the storm at home (but not before having potentially infected half the office).
Combine that with the fact that so many people don't bother with the flu vaccine and I just don't get the panic about this particular virus.
I've heard rumors to this effect, but not found much to substantiate them yet. Do you have a source? I'm genuinely curious about this. As for the rumors, it's worth remembering that the flu shares...
It's frankly obvious to everyone that the low confirmed case rates in the US is because of massive under-testing.
I've heard rumors to this effect, but not found much to substantiate them yet. Do you have a source? I'm genuinely curious about this. As for the rumors, it's worth remembering that the flu shares a lot of symptoms with COVID-19, so those "suspicious cases" could very easily be that, assuming they aren't just hearsay.
Uh…
If this was supposed to bring across a point, I'm not seeing it.
Washington state has 366 lab-confirmed cases (as of 14:25 Seattle time / 21:45 UTC on 2020-03-11) I've been watching that page - our state Dept of Health has done a fantastic job of being...
but in the U.S. most states have few (if any) confirmed cases
I've been watching that page - our state Dept of Health has done a fantastic job of being transparent and updating it every day. There were 267 yesterday, 162 on Monday, and 79 on Friday.
the flu infects a dramatically higher number of people and so causes far more damage than Coronavirus has in half the time
The flu is predictable. We get flu season every year. Viruses dislike heat, so cold & flu season follows cold weather. Scientists in the northern hemisphere look at what strains of flu were common during winter in the southern hemisphere, and come up with a flu vaccine based on their best estimates of which strains will be most common. Ditto for southern hemisphere flu vaccines being based on trends from northern hemisphere winter.
Despite flu vaccines, we still see a noticeable impact from the flu - everything from staying home from work to needing to be hospitalized. And thousands of deaths, every year. But, because flu is seasonal, our hospitals know what to expect, what supplies to stock up on, etc. If they weren't prepared, "normal" flu season would be much worse.
The key difference between the coronavirus and the flu is that coronavirus is not predictable. There's a reason it's called "novel" coronavirus. It's new. We don't know what to expect from it. We don't know exactly how quickly it will spread. We do know that it's spreading faster than anyone (other than a few tinfoil hat / doomsday prepper / boy who cried wolf types) predicted.
Nothing in your wording suggests you're genuinely curious. If you feel like being combative, spill it out: at least you can get some form of a reconciliation with all cards on the table.
Nothing in your wording suggests you're genuinely curious. If you feel like being combative, spill it out: at least you can get some form of a reconciliation with all cards on the table.
I mean we're at nearly 5k confirmed deaths and things are just starting to heat up in the US, I just genuinely don't understand why someone would try to convince people that it's no big deal. When...
I mean we're at nearly 5k confirmed deaths and things are just starting to heat up in the US, I just genuinely don't understand why someone would try to convince people that it's no big deal.
When exactly does it become something to worry about?
I want to emphasize that I'm focusing on the U.S. exclusively here. I fully understand that in countries like China that this virus is not at all something to be taken lightly. But even when...
I want to emphasize that I'm focusing on the U.S. exclusively here. I fully understand that in countries like China that this virus is not at all something to be taken lightly. But even when liable to spread fast here, this severe of a reaction feels like overkill.
I should also note that I'm still in favor of avoiding large get-togethers like conventions. We do still have the virus here, so taking reasonable precaution is perfectly rational. I stop understanding at the point where people start raiding stores for toilet paper or becoming so genuinely fearful so very fast.
I dunno about you, but I'm particularly worried about the US - amongst the industrial nations that is. Work culture over there makes the entire country a big petri dish. People are enormously...
I dunno about you, but I'm particularly worried about the US - amongst the industrial nations that is. Work culture over there makes the entire country a big petri dish.
People are enormously likely to just shrug off a cold and go to work, particularly young poor people. Combine that with terrible rollout of testing and you get a epidemic amonst most of the people you come into contact with day to day - cashiers at the grocery store, baristas, fast food workers. They'll be fine, but they'll spread it fast.
Nevermind the fact that I don't think your healthcare system is as well prepared as you'd want to hope. Unbridled capitalism doesn't tend to plan for disasters. The only efficient hospital is one that runs near capacity most of the time.
Also, china did really well. Sure, they had 70000 cases and a lot of deaths, but they contained it eventually. By draconian measures and an agile healthcare system. Do you see the US welding shut apartment complexes in seattle or building a hospital in two weeks? I don't. People should stop considering china and italy to be underdeveloped countries and stop thinking "It could never happen here". Well, it's happening in germany. Is Germany a shithole?
I don't disagree, cars kill 40k people in the US every year and no one blinks an eye. But who is actually panicking right now? Some suburban moms stocking up on beans, rice and toilet paper?...
I don't disagree, cars kill 40k people in the US every year and no one blinks an eye. But who is actually panicking right now? Some suburban moms stocking up on beans, rice and toilet paper?
People should be worried and should be taking precautions. Anything that dismisses this as nothing to worry about really rubs me the wrong way. Especially when it comes from those who aren't in a high-risk population.
Confirmed deaths in the U.S., nationwide, are at 29 at time of writing. We haven't even gotten to a thousand confirmed infections, let alone deaths. I can't say what a good line to draw might be,...
Confirmed deaths in the U.S., nationwide,are at 29 at time of writing. We haven't even gotten to a thousand confirmed infections, let alone deaths. I can't say what a good line to draw might be, but if this – or even anything near it – constitutes the point wherein we should begin to panic, the flu should by all rights cause mass hysteria and rioting every year.
Uhmmm that's 29 deaths, not confirmed cases. And also keep in mind that the CDC stats only include cases reported to the CDC as of 4pm yesterday. Whereas NYT is reporting (as of 1:30AM this morning):
Uhmmm that's 29 deaths, not confirmed cases. And also keep in mind that the CDC stats only include cases reported to the CDC as of 4pm yesterday. Whereas NYT is reporting (as of 1:30AM this morning):
As of Thursday morning, at least 1,257 people in 44 states and Washington, D.C., have tested positive for coronavirus, according to a New York Times database, and at least 37 patients with the virus have died.
The flu doesn't kill ~3-4% of the those who contract it, nor does it generally result in countries medical services being completely overwhelmed, forcing them to go into triage mode. Covid-19...
The flu doesn't kill ~3-4% of the those who contract it, nor does it generally result in countries medical services being completely overwhelmed, forcing them to go into triage mode. Covid-19 seems to be doing both. See:
While the true mortality of COVID-19 will take some time to fully understand, the data we have so far indicate that the crude mortality ratio (the number of reported deaths divided by the reported cases) is between 3-4%, the infection mortality rate (the number of reported deaths divided by the number of infections) will be lower. For seasonal influenza, mortality is usually well below 0.1%. However, mortality is to a large extent determined by access to and quality of health care.
Today, Italy has 10,149 cases of the coronavirus. There are now simply too many patients for each one of them to receive adequate care. Doctors and nurses are unable to tend to everybody. They lack machines to ventilate all those gasping for air.
Now the Italian College of Anesthesia, Analgesia, Resuscitation and Intensive Care (SIAARTI) has published guidelines for the criteria that doctors and nurses should follow in these extraordinary circumstances. The document begins by likening the moral choices facing Italian doctors to the forms of wartime triage that are required in the field of “catastrophe medicine.” Instead of providing intensive care to all patients who need it, its authors suggest, it may become necessary to follow “the most widely shared criteria regarding distributive justice and the appropriate allocation of limited health resources.”
Yes, it's important to recognize that almost everyone who has it will be fine. The mortality rate is relatively low, generally somewhere in the < 5% range (likely even lower than that) for everyone younger than 70 or so, which is the large majority of people. So over 95% of those people who get it will be fine.
The real problem is how much it spreads, and that even tiny percentages can still be very large numbers when there are enough people involved. Congress's in-house doctor told them the other day that he expects 70-150 million people could contract it in the US. Even if we try to be very conservative and take the low end of that at 70M, and use a 2% mortality rate overall, that would still mean 1,400,000 people would die from it in the US alone.
I agree that people generally shouldn't be worrying that they, personally, will die from it. But that doesn't mean that it's not dangerous, it just means that you're looking at it from the wrong perspective. This is much more of a societal/systemic threat than an individual one. That's why stopping the spread as much as possible is the important part.
I've also read that 5% of cases need ICU treatment. That'd be 3.5 million cases. You'd have to really stretch it out for that to be manageable. And if the healthcare system is that overburdened, I'd expect mortality to rise. Italy is struggling with a few thousand cases right now, never mind millions.
While I agree that panicking is unwise, I do still think there is far more potential harm in underestimating the danger than overestimating it, especially when so far the worst that has come of that is some irrational panic buying leading to empty shelves and the occasional fist-fight in supermarkets.
Also worth keeping in mind that the latest news out of Italy is that things there are really not looking good. See:
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/
Acting a bit over the top is better than ignoring or downplaying the threat, IMO. And it should be noted that according to the WHO, Italy has the second highest ranked healthcare systems in the world (Australia is 32nd):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Health_Organization_ranking_of_health_systems_in_2000
And if they are getting overwhelmed by this, then how does that bode for the rest of us if we cannot contain the epidemic?
It may be top notch, but are there enough beds for this unexpected and widespread crisis? Just because it provides excellent care doesn't mean it's far enough below capacity to support everyone who's going to need it if many of them need care all at once on top of all of the normal health care needs.
Coronavirus will overwhelm the Australian healthcare system. You do not have enough ICU beds; enough nurses; enough respiratory doctors; enough equipment.
I dunno. The article implicitly assumes that people are worried for themselves. If they're self-quarantining, that is evidently not the case. They are worried about the nation as a whole and/or vulnerable people around them, which imo are legit objects of that worry.
Right, and like I said, I generally agree with him from that perspective. I've tried editing the title to make that point more obvious, since I think the original title comes off a little more like, "this isn't a big deal at all." The way the article was written doesn't help either, since it doesn't get around to that part of the message until the very end, and I think at least some people are reacting to it before making it that far.
Ehhh, I read the whole thing. Still had the impression that he's as self-centered as some people here say or that he has not a clue of how disease works. He doesn't seem to care how others are affected and his "let's focus on the 3%" doesn't work - because we can only really help them by demanding the govt increase ICU capacities and by not spreading the disease, e.g. freaking out.
Granted, some of the stuff he mentioned others doing is overcautious (quarantining if you were in contact with him before he was in contact with the disease) but even then, he says himself that his doctors said he probably picked it up locally, which means those people quarantining do have a point.
But oh well, someone's always complaining. If we weather a heavy disease by drastic measures, afterwards people will ask "What about that oh so evil disease everyone was freaking out about? Nothing happened!" Yeah, that's kind of the point of freaking out.
This sounds like it's written by an angry narcissist. No, "Entire businesses in Melbourne and Sydney" were not shut down because of him, but because of the confirmed presence of the virus.
So the guy went to one of his country's newspapers to basically bitch about how his colleagues & family treated him. He has the balls to say "Please stop the hysteria", when all he cares about is that he gets treated better… when in the same breath he describes symptoms of "unbearable pain" and "brain tumour on the precipice of exploding".
Rightful asshole. I'd bet a few australian dollars he got treated like this by his family and colleagues for reasons that have nothing to do with the virus.
I'm in Seattle, which is basically the epicenter of the outbreak in the US.
Our local university had to develop their own coronavirus test because our federal government dropped the ball.
I would love to have 100 testing clinics set up across the US, in the past week.
Are you really complaining that your federal government is too well-prepared for this?
Do you think hysteria drove government preparedness or the other way around, or do you think those things happened independently of one another? I know people in Germany didn't freak out and our goverment preparedness is... mediocre. If I could "buy" goverment preparedness with public freak-out, I would.
And yet, despite all that preparation, Australia now has over 100 confirmed cases.
I completely agree with you. See my example elsewhere about the Heinsberg district and how more than a quarter of german cases can be attributed to that. An earlier restriction on travel and assemblies would have bought us a lot of time.
Does sound like someone that's very self-centered and doesn't understand the impact they (as an infected and contagious individual) could have on others, even after those others mentioned their concerns. Just because you are young, healthy and can afford to take sick leave does not mean those are not concerns for others.
Yep. I'm not worried because I might die with a 0.1% chance if I catch it. I'm worried because I could infect some of the many people with worse chances. Family members with a weak immune system. Those with pre-existing conditions. The elderly. I don't want to risk spreading it to anyone in my family, mostly because they'd have it worse than me.
And rightfully shutdown they were. Australia seems to have the situation under control precisely because they were shut down. Aggressive quarantine is the difference between someone infecting two people before they're isolated and infecting no one. And if everyone infects two people, we get a situation like italy or china.
Germany was looking much like australia for the longest time too. Occasional ingress from hotspots, but mostly manageable. Then an infected person attended a carnival event. Two weeks later, we have 400 cases in a district of a quarter million people, despite strong effort to quarantine suspected cases. That's one fourth of our overall cases, with many more clusters across the country linked to said hotspot.
This thing can go from real easy to real bad in no time, which is why the people are freaking out a bit.
I really hope it doesn't.
And if you want to help the 3%, what you do is you limit the spread of the disease by quarantining. Treatment thus far amounts to breathing for the patient and hoping he makes it, more or less. Prevention is where it's at, and freaking out a little bit is what keeps you vigilant.
Also, the fact that 80% of cases are very very "bland" means it spreads more easily. People who aren't sick beyond the seasonal norm won't quarantine unless they know someone with the virus. If it was worse and more characteristic, we wouldn't need to test so much to know who to isolate. People are freaking out because it's so mild (in most cases).
It's especially strange going from WHO recommendations to outright panic of friends. WHO doesn't even seem to recommend avoiding large gatherings if you're under 40. WHO just suggests washing your hands, skipping handshakes, coughing into your elbow, etc. The basics. The people I know are suggesting stocking up on a few weeks of food, canceling all events, and only working from home...
The panic is really getting out of control.
Let's not forget that both China and Italy are seeing younger people needing ICU beds too. Older people are far more likely to die, but that doesn't mean younger people do not need intensive specialist hospital care to survive.
Being in Denmark where the country was shut the fuck down last night this guy sounds like an asshole who shouldn't be allowed to spew his self centered bullshit. I'm not worried about my health the slightest but when the prime minister goes on TV and says people WILL lose their job during this and a LOT of other things are uncertain for a long time and please do everything you can to stay at home I don't and shouldn't take that lightly. Other countries that hasn't been as affected yet: WATCH AND LEARN!
This article largely echoes how I've felt so far about the virus. Other countries have had it worse, so I obviously can't speak for them, but in the U.S. most states have few (if any) confirmed cases, and by comparison the flu has been far worse so far. While COVID-19 may have a higher fatality rate, the flu infects a dramatically higher number of people and so causes far more damage than Coronavirus has in half the time. Combine that with the fact that so many people don't bother with the flu vaccine and I just don't get the panic about this particular virus.
EDIT: I'm putting this here to reiterate that I'm focusing on the United States when I say this. I'm well aware that other countries are in dramatically different situations, and that for them, this reaction makes sense.
It's frankly obvious to everyone that the low confirmed case rates in the US is because of massive under-testing.
A friend in Alabama (a "zero cases" state) was just telling me earlier about several highly suspicious cases matching all COVID-19 symptoms that can't get approval to be tested and thus are riding out the storm at home (but not before having potentially infected half the office).
Uh…
I've heard rumors to this effect, but not found much to substantiate them yet. Do you have a source? I'm genuinely curious about this. As for the rumors, it's worth remembering that the flu shares a lot of symptoms with COVID-19, so those "suspicious cases" could very easily be that, assuming they aren't just hearsay.
If this was supposed to bring across a point, I'm not seeing it.
Yup. Extrapolate from the current data and you'd have full population coverage in Germany in just a month. That is not what a flu would look like.
Washington state has 366 lab-confirmed cases (as of 14:25 Seattle time / 21:45 UTC on 2020-03-11)
I've been watching that page - our state Dept of Health has done a fantastic job of being transparent and updating it every day. There were 267 yesterday, 162 on Monday, and 79 on Friday.
The flu is predictable. We get flu season every year. Viruses dislike heat, so cold & flu season follows cold weather. Scientists in the northern hemisphere look at what strains of flu were common during winter in the southern hemisphere, and come up with a flu vaccine based on their best estimates of which strains will be most common. Ditto for southern hemisphere flu vaccines being based on trends from northern hemisphere winter.
Despite flu vaccines, we still see a noticeable impact from the flu - everything from staying home from work to needing to be hospitalized. And thousands of deaths, every year. But, because flu is seasonal, our hospitals know what to expect, what supplies to stock up on, etc. If they weren't prepared, "normal" flu season would be much worse.
The key difference between the coronavirus and the flu is that coronavirus is not predictable. There's a reason it's called "novel" coronavirus. It's new. We don't know what to expect from it. We don't know exactly how quickly it will spread. We do know that it's spreading faster than anyone (other than a few tinfoil hat / doomsday prepper / boy who cried wolf types) predicted.
How many thousands of people need to die within what timespan before we should "panic"?
This sort of sensationalist take is not helping anyone.
Clearly this person has a threshold, I'm just curious as to what it is.
Nothing in your wording suggests you're genuinely curious. If you feel like being combative, spill it out: at least you can get some form of a reconciliation with all cards on the table.
I mean we're at nearly 5k confirmed deaths and things are just starting to heat up in the US, I just genuinely don't understand why someone would try to convince people that it's no big deal.
When exactly does it become something to worry about?
I want to emphasize that I'm focusing on the U.S. exclusively here. I fully understand that in countries like China that this virus is not at all something to be taken lightly. But even when liable to spread fast here, this severe of a reaction feels like overkill.
I should also note that I'm still in favor of avoiding large get-togethers like conventions. We do still have the virus here, so taking reasonable precaution is perfectly rational. I stop understanding at the point where people start raiding stores for toilet paper or becoming so genuinely fearful so very fast.
I dunno about you, but I'm particularly worried about the US - amongst the industrial nations that is. Work culture over there makes the entire country a big petri dish.
People are enormously likely to just shrug off a cold and go to work, particularly young poor people. Combine that with terrible rollout of testing and you get a epidemic amonst most of the people you come into contact with day to day - cashiers at the grocery store, baristas, fast food workers. They'll be fine, but they'll spread it fast.
Nevermind the fact that I don't think your healthcare system is as well prepared as you'd want to hope. Unbridled capitalism doesn't tend to plan for disasters. The only efficient hospital is one that runs near capacity most of the time.
Also, china did really well. Sure, they had 70000 cases and a lot of deaths, but they contained it eventually. By draconian measures and an agile healthcare system. Do you see the US welding shut apartment complexes in seattle or building a hospital in two weeks? I don't. People should stop considering china and italy to be underdeveloped countries and stop thinking "It could never happen here". Well, it's happening in germany. Is Germany a shithole?
I don't disagree, cars kill 40k people in the US every year and no one blinks an eye. But who is actually panicking right now? Some suburban moms stocking up on beans, rice and toilet paper?
People should be worried and should be taking precautions. Anything that dismisses this as nothing to worry about really rubs me the wrong way. Especially when it comes from those who aren't in a high-risk population.
Confirmed deaths in the U.S., nationwide, are at 29 at time of writing. We haven't even gotten to a thousand confirmed infections, let alone deaths. I can't say what a good line to draw might be, but if this – or even anything near it – constitutes the point wherein we should begin to panic, the flu should by all rights cause mass hysteria and rioting every year.
From what I understand any data out of the US for confirmed cases should be dismissed considering there are barely any tests being run.
Uhmmm that's 29 deaths, not confirmed cases. And also keep in mind that the CDC stats only include cases reported to the CDC as of 4pm yesterday. Whereas NYT is reporting (as of 1:30AM this morning):
Typo, sorry about that. I've edited it out.
And regarding the case count, that's fair, but it's still nothing compared to the flu.
The flu doesn't kill ~3-4% of the those who contract it, nor does it generally result in countries medical services being completely overwhelmed, forcing them to go into triage mode. Covid-19 seems to be doing both. See:
https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200306-sitrep-46-covid-19.pdf
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/03/who-gets-hospital-bed/607807/