On a related note, I watched a bit of Fox News last night to bask in the conservative tears. Laura Ingraham predicted that the 100 days of mask wearing is going to turn into 4 years of mask...
On a related note, I watched a bit of Fox News last night to bask in the conservative tears. Laura Ingraham predicted that the 100 days of mask wearing is going to turn into 4 years of mask wearing and that we'll still be wearing masks during the next Presidential election. I doubt any of their viewers are going to notice the discrepancy between this prediction and previous predictions that covid would disappear completely the day after the election, nor will they remember when both of these predictions were wrong. Just a bunch of very, very silly people.
No discrepancy there at all. The anti-mask thing has never been about the actual pandemic. The mask was warped into a symbol (dogwhistle?) of government overreach and the government intruding into...
he discrepancy between this prediction and previous predictions that covid would disappear completely
No discrepancy there at all. The anti-mask thing has never been about the actual pandemic. The mask was warped into a symbol (dogwhistle?) of government overreach and the government intruding into people's personal lives. So now that "the libs" are in charge, they (Fox et al) are running the expected narrative that "the government" is going to do everything it can to intrude on your life. Because the east coast intellectuals want to control your life because they think they know better than you.
Secretly those libs have been waiting for an excuse to force everyone to "conform", and the mask wearing is just the excuse they where waiting for! So of course they're going to try and continue it as long as possible! Just you wait, after they get everyone to wear masks, next they'll start [insert conspiracy here]!
What I don't understand about that thinking is what motivation they think the administration would have. Do they think it's a conspiracy with 'big mask' or an overbearing need to for obedience? Or...
What I don't understand about that thinking is what motivation they think the administration would have. Do they think it's a conspiracy with 'big mask' or an overbearing need to for obedience? Or maybe Biden just hates jawlines.
President-elect Joe Biden chastised the Trump administration for its slow rollout of the vaccine in a speech Tuesday. He warned that the administration’s effort to distribute and administer the vaccine is “not progressing as it should” and that if the pace of the vaccination effort continues “it’s going to take years, not months, to vaccinate the American people.”
That article is from December 29 and the vaccination rate has tripled since then from about 236k per day to 746k per day (first dose). Straight-line plots assuming vaccinations keep happening at...
That article is from December 29 and the vaccination rate has tripled since then from about 236k per day to 746k per day (first dose). Straight-line plots assuming vaccinations keep happening at the same rate as today are too pessimistic.
Incidentally, Biden's goal of 100 million vaccinated doses in 100 days seems unambitious. The vaccination rate needs to get above 1 million per day and stay there, and that seems likely to happen by the end of the month February 8.
Looking at the projections on the path to immunity page, we are likely to be at 150 million69 million 135 million vaccinated by April 30. We are already at 15 million.
This is not fast enough to avoid a lot more deaths, but we're likely to be a herd immunity one way or the other by July.
That is really astounding. Is the presumed decrease in infections due to the increase in vaccinations? Does the July immunity date presume those infected don't need or get a vaccination? Are there...
That is really astounding.
Is the presumed decrease in infections due to the increase in vaccinations?
Does the July immunity date presume those infected don't need or get a vaccination?
Are there any estimates on when R0 goes below 0?
Presumably we can reopen before herd immunity is achieved, as ignoring fatalities, the major driver for closures was the potential for exponential growth to overrun hospital capacity.
Well, it's astounding because I read the graph wrong. Sorry about that! Also, it's only a model. But just reading the "herd immunity" graph, by July they are predicting 33% (108M) got vaccinated...
Well, it's astounding because I read the graph wrong. Sorry about that!
Also, it's only a model.
But just reading the "herd immunity" graph, by July they are predicting 33% (108M) got vaccinated and 36% (119M) got infected, for a total of 69% immune. So about half of each.
So far the US has had about 24 million cases officially and they are estimating 90 million people (27% of country) actually got it at some point and are immune. Justification for that is on the "Estimating True Infections" page.
Looks like they factor in the fact that a lot of those with immunity from infection will also get the vaccination...
Looks like they factor in the fact that a lot of those with immunity from infection will also get the vaccination...
Important: We only count the immunity that was acquired first (e.g. if an individual has both immunity from natural infection and immunity from vaccination, we only count the immunity from infection).
I wonder if Biden or his team will use this as a litmus test or a canary test for working with Republicans. Anyone who actively fights or doesn't listen to the mask mandate gets effectively...
I wonder if Biden or his team will use this as a litmus test or a canary test for working with Republicans. Anyone who actively fights or doesn't listen to the mask mandate gets effectively written of as someone who has interest in working with him. That sounds wrong, Biden makes a declaration and anyone who doesn't listen to his decree doesn't want to work with him. However, in the context of "forcing people to wear a mask only while on federal property during a global pandemic, fighting basic rules to keep representatives and their staff members safe is a pretty good indicator on if they're going to be willing to budge on policy proposals Biden will make in the future.
My hope beyond hope is that Biden's words about meeting all American's needs does not translate to "negotiating with Republican politicians who are negotiating in bad faith." Support Republican...
My hope beyond hope is that Biden's words about meeting all American's needs does not translate to "negotiating with Republican politicians who are negotiating in bad faith."
Support Republican voters and bring them into the fold. Not the Republican representatives who obstruct doing so.
On a related note, I watched a bit of Fox News last night to bask in the conservative tears. Laura Ingraham predicted that the 100 days of mask wearing is going to turn into 4 years of mask wearing and that we'll still be wearing masks during the next Presidential election. I doubt any of their viewers are going to notice the discrepancy between this prediction and previous predictions that covid would disappear completely the day after the election, nor will they remember when both of these predictions were wrong. Just a bunch of very, very silly people.
No discrepancy there at all. The anti-mask thing has never been about the actual pandemic. The mask was warped into a symbol (dogwhistle?) of government overreach and the government intruding into people's personal lives. So now that "the libs" are in charge, they (Fox et al) are running the expected narrative that "the government" is going to do everything it can to intrude on your life. Because the east coast intellectuals want to control your life because they think they know better than you.
Secretly those libs have been waiting for an excuse to force everyone to "conform", and the mask wearing is just the excuse they where waiting for! So of course they're going to try and continue it as long as possible! Just you wait, after they get everyone to wear masks, next they'll start [insert conspiracy here]!
What I don't understand about that thinking is what motivation they think the administration would have. Do they think it's a conspiracy with 'big mask' or an overbearing need to for obedience? Or maybe Biden just hates jawlines.
well, I mean they are technically not wrong...
That article is from December 29 and the vaccination rate has tripled since then from about 236k per day to 746k per day (first dose). Straight-line plots assuming vaccinations keep happening at the same rate as today are too pessimistic.
Incidentally, Biden's goal of 100 million
vaccinateddoses in 100 days seems unambitious. The vaccination rate needs to get above 1 million per day and stay there, and that seems likely to happen bythe end of the monthFebruary 8.Looking at the projections on the path to immunity page, we are likely to be at
150 million69 million135 million vaccinated by April 30. We are already at 15 million.This is not fast enough to avoid a lot more deaths, but we're likely to be a herd immunity one way or the other by July.
That is really astounding.
Is the presumed decrease in infections due to the increase in vaccinations?
Does the July immunity date presume those infected don't need or get a vaccination?
Are there any estimates on when R0 goes below 0?
Presumably we can reopen before herd immunity is achieved, as ignoring fatalities, the major driver for closures was the potential for exponential growth to overrun hospital capacity.
Well, it's astounding because I read the graph wrong. Sorry about that!
Also, it's only a model.
But just reading the "herd immunity" graph, by July they are predicting 33% (108M) got vaccinated and 36% (119M) got infected, for a total of 69% immune. So about half of each.
So far the US has had about 24 million cases officially and they are estimating 90 million people (27% of country) actually got it at some point and are immune. Justification for that is on the "Estimating True Infections" page.
Looks like they factor in the fact that a lot of those with immunity from infection will also get the vaccination...
I wonder if Biden or his team will use this as a litmus test or a canary test for working with Republicans. Anyone who actively fights or doesn't listen to the mask mandate gets effectively written of as someone who has interest in working with him. That sounds wrong, Biden makes a declaration and anyone who doesn't listen to his decree doesn't want to work with him. However, in the context of "forcing people to wear a mask only while on federal property during a global pandemic, fighting basic rules to keep representatives and their staff members safe is a pretty good indicator on if they're going to be willing to budge on policy proposals Biden will make in the future.
My hope beyond hope is that Biden's words about meeting all American's needs does not translate to "negotiating with Republican politicians who are negotiating in bad faith."
Support Republican voters and bring them into the fold. Not the Republican representatives who obstruct doing so.
Unreal that it took new leadership to make this mandatory
I never thought I would be excited about the most mundane and basic fixes (like most of those executive orders), but here we are.