Are there enough subscribers interested to discuss the first episode? I was wondering how we could organize it to prevent spoilers for those watching on YouTube.
Are there enough subscribers interested to discuss the first episode? I was wondering how we could organize it to prevent spoilers for those watching on YouTube.
I love that they have a new game now and I love how they always find ways to put an appropriate game to play on the good country. I know they research a lot on this and do simulations and so...
I love that they have a new game now and I love how they always find ways to put an appropriate game to play on the good country. I know they research a lot on this and do simulations and so credit where credit is due!
I think this innovation of challenges that can be permanently failed (via wagering) is super interesting. Right now, if I need to find a point of improvement I can find is that some of the one-try challenges did not seem exciting enough.
Spoilers Like for example, when they correctly got GIRAFFE or COHABITATION, there was not much more celebration because it was a one-shot? As opposed to the shrimp barbie and the carnival one which required more tries and was more exciting IMO.
Toby acts as such a good foil to Sam's antics. It's really good to see her on the show again. This format is an interesting one. As had been pointed out in the episode, it's very much a game of...
Toby acts as such a good foil to Sam's antics. It's really good to see her on the show again.
This format is an interesting one. As had been pointed out in the episode, it's very much a game of risk/reward. It'll be interesting to see how the teams play their wagers as the game progresses. As @guissmo pointed out, some of the challenges did seem a bit less... exciting compare to others. I think the challenge with those was meant to be the "you only have one guess", but in order to counteract that they seemed a bit easier.
Discussion on one of the challenges
Referring to the flags challenge, it felt like there wasn't really any drama around it. Ben painted some paper with patterns designed to be recognised clearly at a distance, and Adam (presumably, given how quickly he was guessing the letters) looked them up on a table as Ben held them up. It didn't really feel like a challenge. It was a neat way of including local history/landmarks in the show, which is something I appreciated in the New Zealand series too.
I feel like it would have been more of an investment when actually playing. What we saw in the final cut was them buying supplies, then cutting to them up at the station with a quick art montage and then the actual signalling. The problem is, of course, that you can't make all of that in-between time interesting. It's a game show, and including all that time wouldn't be fun and it would ruin the pacing, so I feel like they were stuck in the editing room and had to compromise.
Shrimp on the Barbie, and the carnival games too, was a much better challenge for the format. That mixture of skill and luck is so key for thr show. Adam's throwing was consistent enough that it was really a matter of time before one of the shrimp ended up resting on the Barbie. In the same vein, though, having the multiple attempts did give Adam a sense of security, and I could very easily see it going the complete opposite way.
I'm not sure we'll see another season of this format (very few countries would be conducive to it), but I would be interested in what might change if they did. Speaking of... they have a podcast for that sort of discussion.
I haven't had the opportunity to listen to The Layover yet, but I am interested to hear more about how the ideas for this season came about. I might add a section to this comment after I have.
Yeah, I agree. But at the same time, if all the challenges were like that then there is a very good chance they could all end up losing money every day though, which wouldn't be very fun. Sam and...
Shrimp on the Barbie, and the carnival games too, was a much better challenge for the format
Yeah, I agree. But at the same time, if all the challenges were like that then there is a very good chance they could all end up losing money every day though, which wouldn't be very fun. Sam and Toby are also both insanely uncoordinated too, and if all the challenges were physical skill ones like that they would be screwed. So I can see why they mixed in a bunch of far easier to accomplish and less physical challenges at every location too. I think striking a good balance between them is going to be hard though, so who knows how it'll end up. I suspect Ben and Adam are going to run away with the game simply because they're much more likely to be able to accomplish all the 3x challenges. We shall see.
As far as province-conquering goes, this feels to me like a clear improvement over the US states season formula. In recent seasons there seem to have been clear attempts at improving how much of...
As far as province-conquering goes, this feels to me like a clear improvement over the US states season formula. In recent seasons there seem to have been clear attempts at improving how much of the local attractions are shown, even if results were mixed - like in NZ with the contextual challenges (but they end up spending a lot of time driving) or in Switzerland (but they end up spending a lot of time hiding). I'd say this design has the potential to actually show the various parts of the country and keep a lot of screen time centered around interesting locations rather than airports or vehicles. I'm looking forward to it.
Click to expand spoiler. Ben and Adam: Playing 4D chess, stressed, failed steal, wrong airport, wrong terminal- Sam and Toby: Chilling next to an anthill, then visiting a museum... Things went...
Click to expand spoiler.
Ben and Adam: Playing 4D chess, stressed, failed steal, wrong airport, wrong terminal-
Sam and Toby: Chilling next to an anthill, then visiting a museum...
Things went really well for Sam and Toby this time!
Towers of Hanoi moves are easy to work out when you realize that solving the problem for n discs can be stated as solving the problem for n-1 discs, then moving the largest disc, then solving the problem for n-1 discs again (moving them onto the largest one). It's the sort of thing I used to spend high school classes thinking about because I was so bored.
I'm finally caught up in time to participate!!! Click to view the hidden text I really like Toby, but I find it so hard to route for Sam. I really had my fingers crossed for Adam and Ben on during...
I'm finally caught up in time to participate!!!
Click to view the hidden text
I really like Toby, but I find it so hard to route for Sam. I really had my fingers crossed for Adam and Ben on during the train door challenge, they thought that out so well! I'm hoping their hail mary works and they are able to pull off a few steals on their way back to Sydney. It's been an interesting game so far, particularly the betting dynamics, and has lead to some pretty big swings in who is in the lead. Overall a great format for Jet Lag.
Yeah, as much as I like Sam's content (Wendover, Half as Interesting, Jet Lag), he also strikes me as rather lackadaisical when it comes to him competing in Jet Lag, which makes him very hard to...
Yeah, as much as I like Sam's content (Wendover, Half as Interesting, Jet Lag), he also strikes me as rather lackadaisical when it comes to him competing in Jet Lag, which makes him very hard to root for. He just kinda floats through the competitions like he doesn't actually care, and doesn't want to put much effort into winning. Whereas Ben & Adam are always clearly trying to actually take it seriously, and playing to win. They run when they need to, they push themselves, they take calculated risks to try to get ahead, etc.
I really like Toby too though, so I guess it kinda balances out. :P
Huh, I don't root for him for a reason that feels very different from yours: I feel like he tries too hard ahead of time. He's already gamed out the game, thought through his strategy and their...
Huh, I don't root for him for a reason that feels very different from yours: I feel like he tries too hard ahead of time. He's already gamed out the game, thought through his strategy and their strategy and how his strategy needs to respond to their optimal strategy, etc. He looks laid back because he just needs to execute his ideal plan, but he also gets stressed as soon as things go off the rails. He's definitely a planner rather than someone like Ben and Adam who run by the seat of their pants, and thus it's definitely better that he gets the guest each season to rattle him out of his groove.
Spoiler Decent episode. Sam was super smart going to the Apple store like that for the first challenge, and picking the first B in Brisbane for the next. Well played by him and Toby. Not so well...
Spoiler
Decent episode. Sam was super smart going to the Apple store like that for the first challenge, and picking the first B in Brisbane for the next. Well played by him and Toby. Not so well played an episode by Ben and Adam this time though. They went with blueberries, seriously? I wonder why they didn't just go with bread? You would think ducks are used to being fed bread by humans, so they would be way more likely to go for that.
p.s. I really like the Steal challenge mechanic too. It makes it a lot harder for one team to get way ahead of the other.
Do you have access to the Layover podcast? They talk about those decisions there. And try (but not necessarily succeed) to defend their decisions. Among other behind the scenes stories.
Do you have access to the Layover podcast? They talk about those decisions there. And try (but not necessarily succeed) to defend their decisions. Among other behind the scenes stories.
I don't, unfortunately. If Nebula ever does a lifetime membership deal again I will probably get that though, since there are now more than enough creators on there that I actually watch.
I don't, unfortunately. If Nebula ever does a lifetime membership deal again I will probably get that though, since there are now more than enough creators on there that I actually watch.
My comments about this episode Ben says the darndest things. In my opinion Adam is way too good at everything and the smartest of the trio, which is why I rarely want to cheer for him! Sam has...
My comments about this episode
Ben says the darndest things.
In my opinion Adam is way too good at everything and the smartest of the trio, which is why I rarely want to cheer for him!
Sam has been consistently (very) miserly with using his budget, both when depositing and when investing in challenges, which might come back to bite him in the next episode. This makes it frustrating to cheer for him too. They got ridiculously lucky (again) that Ben and Adam didn't roll any steal challenges!
It's also frustrating that Sam and Toby couldn't use any of their massive budget in Melb'n, especially when this wasn't clearly communicated to the viewer beforehand.
Spoiler Yeah, definitely. But now Ben & Adam need to hope they don't get stolen from tomorrow before they land in Brisbane... because that's quite the nest egg they have accumulated. p.s. I was...
Spoiler
They got ridiculously lucky (again) that Ben and Adam didn't roll any steal challenges!
Yeah, definitely. But now Ben & Adam need to hope they don't get stolen from tomorrow before they land in Brisbane... because that's quite the nest egg they have accumulated.
p.s. I was genuinely impressed by Adam's golfing. I figured he could probably get at least one bogey in 18 holes given how decent his swing looked at the range, but I didn't expect him to do it on the first hole. I was absolutely flabbergasted by how rock steady his walking gait was though. Stopping the clock at 30:00.69 just by counting his steps was crazy!
Them not communicating rules until they come up is consistently my biggest frustration with this series. I want to speculate how things are going to go, but I can’t do that when I don’t even know...
Them not communicating rules until they come up is consistently my biggest frustration with this series. I want to speculate how things are going to go, but I can’t do that when I don’t even know whether I have complete information on how the game works!
This is because the rules they have are insanely complicated and we don't even learn most of it. For the Japan season they had 6 or 7 pages of bullets detailing the rules IIRC, but we only learnt...
This is because the rules they have are insanely complicated and we don't even learn most of it. For the Japan season they had 6 or 7 pages of bullets detailing the rules IIRC, but we only learnt a fraction of it during the show, when it became relevant.
If you are interested in more inside baseball regarding the series, they have a podcast on Nebula where they talk about the whole thing in more detail.
If you are interested in more inside baseball regarding the series, they have a podcast on Nebula where they talk about the whole thing in more detail.
Episode Spoiler The episode itself felt like it was a bit too drawn out. I think they probably could have cut 20 min off it and it would have made it feel better paced. I did enjoy the twist that...
Episode Spoiler
The episode itself felt like it was a bit too drawn out. I think they probably could have cut 20 min off it and it would have made it feel better paced. I did enjoy the twist that Toby & Sam had returned to that border airport they discovered in the first episode, and used that to get the win, though. That was a fitting way to end the game.
I thought the season itself was okay, but a little bit of a letdown from what I expected at the beginning. IMO, way too much time was spent with them in the air rather than doing challenges or other entertaining things. So it unfortunately didn't feel like all that much actually happened in the game, especially since there wasn't very much tactical flexibility as a result of the flight times either. Australia is really big though. Bigger than Europe by a significant margin. So I don't know how that could have been avoided.
I agree. Something felt off about this whole season to me. Season Spoilers I don't feel like I got to **see** Australia because their time was spent either in indistinguishable cities or in an...
I agree. Something felt off about this whole season to me.
Season Spoilers
I don't feel like I got to **see** Australia because their time was spent either in indistinguishable cities or in an airport/airplane. Contrast to New Zealand where maybe more time was spent driving/traveling and yet despite that everything felt more varied. Even Hide and Seek across Switzerland provided more distinct impressions of each location.
Plus the challenges seemed, I don't know, lacking? You'd think that for the semaphore or morse code challenges that they would also need to add in memorization to up the ante instead of being able to immediately check a reference.
But I definitely agree that some additional editing would have done wonders, not just in the final episode. Too much seemed drawn out in strategizing.
Looking forward to the YouTube drop! I really like the show but I'd be happy if I never had to hear Sam say the phrase "we are SO back" again. Super cringe. Either that, or I'm just old and out of...
Looking forward to the YouTube drop! I really like the show but I'd be happy if I never had to hear Sam say the phrase "we are SO back" again. Super cringe. Either that, or I'm just old and out of touch.
I’m quite indifferent to the trophy ceremony. On one hand, it feels a bit forced but it’s one of those things they thought would be a one-off and eventually became a tradition. On another, it...
I’m quite indifferent to the trophy ceremony.
On one hand, it feels a bit forced but it’s one of those things they thought would be a one-off and eventually became a tradition. On another, it gives an excuse to see them all being friends after watching them battle over the last four days.
Well, I missed posting about the second episode but I'm on time for the third hooray. Predicted quite well what would happen for the cliffhangers. After watching, I've put in a little wager / fun...
Well, I missed posting about the second episode but I'm on time for the third hooray.
Predicted quite well what would happen for the cliffhangers.
After watching, I've put in a little wager / fun guessing game for the next episode?
Spoilers + Guessing Game As a comment on Reddit said: they've blue-balled us again with a huge cliffhanger.
Why not have a bit of fun and let's ourselves and make a bet on which of the two cliffhangers go well and not.
Rationally, I think I should bet for a Sam/Toby win and a Ben/Adam lose but I'm quite biased for wanting the latter to win so I'll bet the complete opposite.
My guesses on the cliffhangers I suspect that the flags are going to go well. Given that they're alphabetized (instead of in the order of opening an embassy or something), it's not going to be too...
My guesses on the cliffhangers
I suspect that the flags are going to go well. Given that they're alphabetized (instead of in the order of opening an embassy or something), it's not going to be too hard. The "car" is going to come down to whether or not they got the wheels on straight and I don't think there's a good way to tell that yet. I suspect that a solid kick on a plank of wood could hit 30' so I don't expect this one to be too difficult either.
Glad to see Toby back!
Are there enough subscribers interested to discuss the first episode? I was wondering how we could organize it to prevent spoilers for those watching on YouTube.
There definitely are. If you look at the previous threads there's generally one top level comment per episode, and people use spoiler tags to discuss.
Discussion Thread for Season 10 Episode 1 (Nebula Link | YouTube Link).
I love that they have a new game now and I love how they always find ways to put an appropriate game to play on the good country. I know they research a lot on this and do simulations and so credit where credit is due!
I think this innovation of challenges that can be permanently failed (via wagering) is super interesting. Right now, if I need to find a point of improvement I can find is that some of the one-try challenges did not seem exciting enough.
Spoilers
Like for example, when they correctly got GIRAFFE or COHABITATION, there was not much more celebration because it was a one-shot? As opposed to the shrimp barbie and the carnival one which required more tries and was more exciting IMO.Toby acts as such a good foil to Sam's antics. It's really good to see her on the show again.
This format is an interesting one. As had been pointed out in the episode, it's very much a game of risk/reward. It'll be interesting to see how the teams play their wagers as the game progresses. As @guissmo pointed out, some of the challenges did seem a bit less... exciting compare to others. I think the challenge with those was meant to be the "you only have one guess", but in order to counteract that they seemed a bit easier.
Discussion on one of the challenges
Referring to the flags challenge, it felt like there wasn't really any drama around it. Ben painted some paper with patterns designed to be recognised clearly at a distance, and Adam (presumably, given how quickly he was guessing the letters) looked them up on a table as Ben held them up. It didn't really feel like a challenge. It was a neat way of including local history/landmarks in the show, which is something I appreciated in the New Zealand series too.
I feel like it would have been more of an investment when actually playing. What we saw in the final cut was them buying supplies, then cutting to them up at the station with a quick art montage and then the actual signalling. The problem is, of course, that you can't make all of that in-between time interesting. It's a game show, and including all that time wouldn't be fun and it would ruin the pacing, so I feel like they were stuck in the editing room and had to compromise.
Shrimp on the Barbie, and the carnival games too, was a much better challenge for the format. That mixture of skill and luck is so key for thr show. Adam's throwing was consistent enough that it was really a matter of time before one of the shrimp ended up resting on the Barbie. In the same vein, though, having the multiple attempts did give Adam a sense of security, and I could very easily see it going the complete opposite way.
I'm not sure we'll see another season of this format (very few countries would be conducive to it), but I would be interested in what might change if they did. Speaking of... they have a podcast for that sort of discussion.
I haven't had the opportunity to listen to The Layover yet, but I am interested to hear more about how the ideas for this season came about. I might add a section to this comment after I have.
Yeah, I agree. But at the same time, if all the challenges were like that then there is a very good chance they could all end up losing money every day though, which wouldn't be very fun. Sam and Toby are also both insanely uncoordinated too, and if all the challenges were physical skill ones like that they would be screwed. So I can see why they mixed in a bunch of far easier to accomplish and less physical challenges at every location too. I think striking a good balance between them is going to be hard though, so who knows how it'll end up. I suspect Ben and Adam are going to run away with the game simply because they're much more likely to be able to accomplish all the 3x challenges. We shall see.
Maybe it’s too early to say but they’ve done tag twice in Europe so maybe they could come back to Australia?
YouTube version is out now:
AU$TRALIA: A Travel Game - Episode 1
cc: @balooga
As far as province-conquering goes, this feels to me like a clear improvement over the US states season formula. In recent seasons there seem to have been clear attempts at improving how much of the local attractions are shown, even if results were mixed - like in NZ with the contextual challenges (but they end up spending a lot of time driving) or in Switzerland (but they end up spending a lot of time hiding). I'd say this design has the potential to actually show the various parts of the country and keep a lot of screen time centered around interesting locations rather than airports or vehicles. I'm looking forward to it.
Discussion Thread for Season 10 Episode 4 (Nebula Link | YouTube Link).
Click to expand spoiler.
Ben and Adam: Playing 4D chess, stressed, failed steal, wrong airport, wrong terminal- Sam and Toby: Chilling next to an anthill, then visiting a museum...Things went really well for Sam and Toby this time!
Towers of Hanoi moves are easy to work out when you realize that solving the problem for n discs can be stated as solving the problem for n-1 discs, then moving the largest disc, then solving the problem for n-1 discs again (moving them onto the largest one). It's the sort of thing I used to spend high school classes thinking about because I was so bored.
I'm finally caught up in time to participate!!!
Click to view the hidden text
I really like Toby, but I find it so hard to route for Sam. I really had my fingers crossed for Adam and Ben on during the train door challenge, they thought that out so well! I'm hoping their hail mary works and they are able to pull off a few steals on their way back to Sydney. It's been an interesting game so far, particularly the betting dynamics, and has lead to some pretty big swings in who is in the lead. Overall a great format for Jet Lag.
Yeah, as much as I like Sam's content (Wendover, Half as Interesting, Jet Lag), he also strikes me as rather lackadaisical when it comes to him competing in Jet Lag, which makes him very hard to root for. He just kinda floats through the competitions like he doesn't actually care, and doesn't want to put much effort into winning. Whereas Ben & Adam are always clearly trying to actually take it seriously, and playing to win. They run when they need to, they push themselves, they take calculated risks to try to get ahead, etc.
I really like Toby too though, so I guess it kinda balances out. :P
Huh, I don't root for him for a reason that feels very different from yours: I feel like he tries too hard ahead of time. He's already gamed out the game, thought through his strategy and their strategy and how his strategy needs to respond to their optimal strategy, etc. He looks laid back because he just needs to execute his ideal plan, but he also gets stressed as soon as things go off the rails. He's definitely a planner rather than someone like Ben and Adam who run by the seat of their pants, and thus it's definitely better that he gets the guest each season to rattle him out of his groove.
But yeah, I always root for Ben and Adam.
I never really thought about it that way. But you might be right, and maybe that's why I feel he's so lackadaisical during the actual competition.
Discussion Thread for Season 10 Episode 2 (Nebula Link | YouTube Link).
Spoiler
Decent episode. Sam was super smart going to the Apple store like that for the first challenge, and picking the first B in Brisbane for the next. Well played by him and Toby. Not so well played an episode by Ben and Adam this time though. They went with blueberries, seriously? I wonder why they didn't just go with bread? You would think ducks are used to being fed bread by humans, so they would be way more likely to go for that.
p.s. I really like the Steal challenge mechanic too. It makes it a lot harder for one team to get way ahead of the other.
Do you have access to the Layover podcast? They talk about those decisions there. And try (but not necessarily succeed) to defend their decisions. Among other behind the scenes stories.
I don't, unfortunately. If Nebula ever does a lifetime membership deal again I will probably get that though, since there are now more than enough creators on there that I actually watch.
They’re currently offering lifetime for $300. I wouldn’t expect to see it go on sale for less, but it originally sold for $250.
Yeah. The 300 USD for lifetime is a bit steep for me.
Discussion Thread for Season 10 Episode 5 (Nebula Link | YouTube Link).
My comments about this episode
Ben says the darndest things.
In my opinion Adam is way too good at everything and the smartest of the trio, which is why I rarely want to cheer for him!
Sam has been consistently (very) miserly with using his budget, both when depositing and when investing in challenges, which might come back to bite him in the next episode. This makes it frustrating to cheer for him too. They got ridiculously lucky (again) that Ben and Adam didn't roll any steal challenges!
It's also frustrating that Sam and Toby couldn't use any of their massive budget in Melb'n, especially when this wasn't clearly communicated to the viewer beforehand.
Spoiler
Yeah, definitely. But now Ben & Adam need to hope they don't get stolen from tomorrow before they land in Brisbane... because that's quite the nest egg they have accumulated.
p.s. I was genuinely impressed by Adam's golfing. I figured he could probably get at least one bogey in 18 holes given how decent his swing looked at the range, but I didn't expect him to do it on the first hole. I was absolutely flabbergasted by how rock steady his walking gait was though. Stopping the clock at 30:00.69 just by counting his steps was crazy!
Them not communicating rules until they come up is consistently my biggest frustration with this series. I want to speculate how things are going to go, but I can’t do that when I don’t even know whether I have complete information on how the game works!
This is because the rules they have are insanely complicated and we don't even learn most of it. For the Japan season they had 6 or 7 pages of bullets detailing the rules IIRC, but we only learnt a fraction of it during the show, when it became relevant.
If you are interested in more inside baseball regarding the series, they have a podcast on Nebula where they talk about the whole thing in more detail.
Discussion Thread for Season 10 Episode 6 (Nebula Link | YouTube Link).
Episode Spoiler
The episode itself felt like it was a bit too drawn out. I think they probably could have cut 20 min off it and it would have made it feel better paced. I did enjoy the twist that Toby & Sam had returned to that border airport they discovered in the first episode, and used that to get the win, though. That was a fitting way to end the game.
I thought the season itself was okay, but a little bit of a letdown from what I expected at the beginning. IMO, way too much time was spent with them in the air rather than doing challenges or other entertaining things. So it unfortunately didn't feel like all that much actually happened in the game, especially since there wasn't very much tactical flexibility as a result of the flight times either. Australia is really big though. Bigger than Europe by a significant margin. So I don't know how that could have been avoided.
What are other people's thoughts on the season?
I agree. Something felt off about this whole season to me.
Season Spoilers
I don't feel like I got to **see** Australia because their time was spent either in indistinguishable cities or in an airport/airplane. Contrast to New Zealand where maybe more time was spent driving/traveling and yet despite that everything felt more varied. Even Hide and Seek across Switzerland provided more distinct impressions of each location.Plus the challenges seemed, I don't know, lacking? You'd think that for the semaphore or morse code challenges that they would also need to add in memorization to up the ante instead of being able to immediately check a reference.
But I definitely agree that some additional editing would have done wonders, not just in the final episode. Too much seemed drawn out in strategizing.
Looking forward to the YouTube drop! I really like the show but I'd be happy if I never had to hear Sam say the phrase "we are SO back" again. Super cringe. Either that, or I'm just old and out of touch.
No, it's the children who are wrong.
I thought like you, once, but you use it one time ironically and then it becomes a permanent fixture in your lexicon
There's definitely a few moments each season that I really cringe at, especially the trophy award ceremony, but it's all in good fun, yeah?
I’m quite indifferent to the trophy ceremony.
On one hand, it feels a bit forced but it’s one of those things they thought would be a one-off and eventually became a tradition. On another, it gives an excuse to see them all being friends after watching them battle over the last four days.
Discussion Thread for Season 10 Episode 3 (Nebula Link | YouTube Link).
YouTube version is up:
AU$TRALIA: A Travel Game - Ep 3
Well, I missed posting about the second episode but I'm on time for the third hooray.
Predicted quite well what would happen for the cliffhangers.
After watching, I've put in a little wager / fun guessing game for the next episode?
Spoilers + Guessing Game
As a comment on Reddit said: they've blue-balled us again with a huge cliffhanger.Why not have a bit of fun and let's ourselves and make a bet on which of the two cliffhangers go well and not.
Rationally, I think I should bet for a Sam/Toby win and a Ben/Adam lose but I'm quite biased for wanting the latter to win so I'll bet the complete opposite.
My guesses on the cliffhangers
I suspect that the flags are going to go well. Given that they're alphabetized (instead of in the order of opening an embassy or something), it's not going to be too hard. The "car" is going to come down to whether or not they got the wheels on straight and I don't think there's a good way to tell that yet. I suspect that a solid kick on a plank of wood could hit 30' so I don't expect this one to be too difficult either.So... Two successes is my expectation.