Getting a bet right once isn't the same as having a track record, but here's what he says he was thinking: ... Maybe we'll see more "neighbor polls" from now on?
Getting a bet right once isn't the same as having a track record, but here's what he says he was thinking:
The Journal has confirmed that Théo is the trader behind the Polymarket accounts that were systematically purchasing wagers on a Trump victory. Polymarket has corroborated some parts of his story, saying that the individual behind the bets was a French national with extensive trading experience and a financial-services background.
Théo said he placed the Trump bets using his own money, with an eye toward making a big profit, and he had “absolutely no political agenda.” The Journal was unable to determine whether these statements are true. Nor could the Journal rule out links between Théo and any political organization or Trump allies.
...
Théo shared a table of numbers he had compiled based on RealClearPolitics polling averages, showing that Trump had overperformed his swing-state polling numbers in 2020. Given the tight polls in swing states in 2024, Théo reasoned that a similar overperformance by Trump would easily push him into the lead.
Polls failed to account for the “shy Trump voter effect,” Théo said. Either Trump backers were reluctant to tell pollsters that they supported the former president, or they didn’t want to participate in polls, Théo wrote.
To solve this problem, Théo argued that pollsters should use what are known as neighbor polls that ask respondents which candidates they expect their neighbors to support. The idea is that people might not want to reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly reveal them when asked to guess who their neighbors plan to vote for.
Théo cited a handful of publicly released polls conducted in September using the neighbor method alongside the traditional method. These polls showed Harris’s support was several percentage points lower when respondents were asked who their neighbors would vote for, compared with the result that came from directly asking which candidate they supported.
To Théo, this was evidence that pollsters were—once again—underestimating Trump’s support. The data helped convince him to put on his long-shot bet that Trump would win the popular vote. At the time that Théo made those wagers, bettors on Polymarket were assessing the chances of a Trump popular-vote victory at less than 40%.
Maybe we'll see more "neighbor polls" from now on?
Could you please post things like this in the politics category so I can filter it out? Probably the worst thing about Trump winning that will actually affect my day-to-day life is that I won't...
Could you please post things like this in the politics category so I can filter it out?
Probably the worst thing about Trump winning that will actually affect my day-to-day life is that I won't stop hearing and reading about him for the next 4 years or so.
Oops, sorry that's on me. I forgot to add 'politics' to the tags when I edited them. @teaearlgraycold added it though, so it should be being filtered for you now.
Oops, sorry that's on me. I forgot to add 'politics' to the tags when I edited them. @teaearlgraycold added it though, so it should be being filtered for you now.
Getting a bet right once isn't the same as having a track record, but here's what he says he was thinking:
...
Maybe we'll see more "neighbor polls" from now on?
Could you please post things like this in the politics category so I can filter it out?
Probably the worst thing about Trump winning that will actually affect my day-to-day life is that I won't stop hearing and reading about him for the next 4 years or so.
Oops, sorry that's on me. I forgot to add 'politics' to the tags when I edited them. @teaearlgraycold added it though, so it should be being filtered for you now.
Will do. Sorry, I didn't think of that tag.
Thanks!
Mirror:
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election/ar-AA1tDvyI