cdb's recent activity
-
Comment on Why are so many pedestrians killed by cars in the US? in ~transport
-
Comment on Why are so many pedestrians killed by cars in the US? in ~transport
cdb LinkGreat article. Well thought out analysis with lots of supporting data. Thanks for posting. Seems like a complex problem overall. I liked some of the comments on the site as well. Aside from the...Great article. Well thought out analysis with lots of supporting data. Thanks for posting.
Seems like a complex problem overall. I liked some of the comments on the site as well. Aside from the "Big SUV" and drug use assertions supported by the data, I think the lower visibility due to focus on car occupant safety seems like the most interesting avenue to look into further. From just a quick google, it seems there are some quantitative studies showing increases in blind spots in newer cars, but I didn't find studies specifically correlating this with fatalities. I also thought the distracted pedestrian angle might be interesting too, but I'm having a hard time coming up with a reason why that might affect the US and not other countries. It's just anecdotal, but from what I've observed while traveling, people in European cities seemed to use their phones while walking just as often as in the US.
-
Comment on Amazon's Prime Day deals could actually cost you more in ~tech
cdb (edited )LinkIn this evaluation it wasn't clear to me whether "listed as percent discount" meant labeled as a prime day deal or just the normal x% off some some possibly made up "normal price" that they...In this evaluation it wasn't clear to me whether "listed as percent discount" meant labeled as a prime day deal or just the normal x% off some some possibly made up "normal price" that they usually have. So for example, the toy truck went up in price while being listed with a 9% discount. Was the truck labeled as a prime day deal, and what percent off was it labeled as originally when it was $14.99? It's also not clear how the overall savings was calculated. If it was just based on total difference before and during the sale, those items that went up in price while not being listed as on sale probably killed the average savings. I'm not saying that Amazon doesn't engage in some misleading discount labeling, but this isn't proof of it. I hope I didn't miss any details from reading the archived version.
Anyway, I did find that some items I was watching became cheaper, and some didn't. I bought the ones that became cheaper and will continue to monitor the others for future discounts. It seems to me that some kind of deceptive discount labeling has been a thing in most online or brick&mortar stores for as long as I can remember, so as long as one just pays attention to the actual price paid, they should be fine.
-
Comment on Travel essentials: eight items to pack for your next trip – and what to leave at home in ~travel
cdb (edited )Link ParentPeople just have different travel preferences. I used to pack a lot, but I've found that after editing things down quite a lot, I don't miss the extra stuff. I see people waiting at the baggage...People just have different travel preferences. I used to pack a lot, but I've found that after editing things down quite a lot, I don't miss the extra stuff. I see people waiting at the baggage carousel or dragging large luggage around the city, and I think to myself "that looks like a burden I'm not interested in having." I prefer to walk and wander and take public transport rather than load up a car going directly to a destination, so I feel constrained if my luggage isn't small and light enough to drag around on longer walks, bring into restaurants, shove in a medium-sized locker, fit on the overhead rack on the train, etc. Regarding cost, I'd be much more willing to throw down more money to keep things lightweight and avoid having to check a bag. If I were going to just one place and staying there the duration of the trip (like a resort or something), then a larger bag could make sense, but that's just not how I travel.
I guess clothes are technically the exception, requiring some effort. I don't pack more than ~4-5 days worth of shirts, socks, and underwear. If I'm on a long trip, I don't mind spending 5-10 minutes every few days washing those items just to save a bit on luggage size and weight. I don't find it hard to find time for this, since a bit of downtime always seems to happen even if I have a decently full schedule. I don't bother with dedicated laundry detergent, because carrying around more stuff partially defeats the purpose. A few drops of hand soap in warm water works pretty well.
-
Comment on Indecision: Get a camera despite having a phone in ~tech
cdb LinkSince you say that your goal is quality photos of moments and that you don't care for extraneous fancy settings, I'd say no. Most of photography is lighting, composition, perspective, and set up...Since you say that your goal is quality photos of moments and that you don't care for extraneous fancy settings, I'd say no. Most of photography is lighting, composition, perspective, and set up to begin with. Post-processing is important too. Most people who buy a DLSR/mirrorless camera don't take any better photos because they don't work at these important aspects. In other words, there are many practical ways to improve photo quality, and camera equipment is far from the top of the list.
Given that phone cameras are pretty good and some significant post-processing can be done with any photo, I don't think a fancier camera will help with quality of photo. If you are working hard at all those non-equipment aspects and find yourself wishing you could alter the depth of field, have greater detail for post-processing, find the way your phone handles dynamic range to be limiting, feel the need for extreme zoom or macro shots, etc. then it would make sense to look for a dedicated device.
-
Comment on It's impossible to evaluate your sleep with only one number in ~health
cdb Link ParentGoing along with the article's theme that it's hard to evaluate sleep quality, I'm pretty sure that how you feel in the morning is also sometimes not the best indicator of how well you slept on a...Going along with the article's theme that it's hard to evaluate sleep quality, I'm pretty sure that how you feel in the morning is also sometimes not the best indicator of how well you slept on a given night.
I've noticed that when the amount of sleep I get is irregular, I'll often feel fine the morning after not getting enough sleep. Then the following morning after getting more sleep, I'll feel terrible. So it seems that it sometimes takes a day to feel the bad effects from missing sleep. If that's the case, if I'm getting ~7 hours a night and I feel tired some morning, I wonder if it's because I didn't sleep well that night, if I didn't sleep well on the previous night, or if I'm systematically getting mildly bad sleep over the past week that's slowly catching up to me. On the other hand, sometimes I don't get enough sleep and feel it right away.
Anyway, I've found that I sleep poorly when I have a bulky watch on my wrist, so there goes sleep tracking for me. I've thought about trying a ring, but those don't have the best reviews in terms of accuracy or consistency.
-
Comment on What common misunderstanding do you want to clear up? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentI think the main answer to that is governments frequently go against what mainstream economics would recommend. A secondary answer is that the system is too complex for us to make good...I think the main answer to that is governments frequently go against what mainstream economics would recommend. A secondary answer is that the system is too complex for us to make good predictions, and even good predictions will sometimes be wrong, so let's not forget which predictions were right.
I'm on board with the idea of encouraging people to contact their representatives about fairer income distribution policies. I'm just against the idea of using the blame game to do so. I feel like this creates more polarization and blind anger in the world. It's a weapon that could easily cause collateral damage and maybe cause more harm than good.
-
Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
cdb LinkStarted The Count of Monte Cristo, although on audiobook. I'd tried several times to read the book the old-fashioned way, but I never got past the first few chapters. Now that I'm 12 chapters in,...Started The Count of Monte Cristo, although on audiobook. I'd tried several times to read the book the old-fashioned way, but I never got past the first few chapters. Now that I'm 12 chapters in, I'm feeling like it's starting to get good.
I also finished The Poisoner's Handbook for the book club. Interesting stuff about science, science communication, and society. Many parts seem relevant to this day, unfortunately.
-
Comment on What common misunderstanding do you want to clear up? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentThanks! Yeah, "street cred" has never really been convincing at all for me. Anyone who pushes that angle just makes me think they're making an argument from authority and showing me that they...Thanks!
Yeah, "street cred" has never really been convincing at all for me. Anyone who pushes that angle just makes me think they're making an argument from authority and showing me that they don't have evidence for their claims.
I read Sowell's Basic Economics and found it a pretty good book, although with a bit too much classic over-extrapolating Chicago School conjecture. The fact that the field is disproving some of that stuff experimentally shows me that economics is not just elites in an ivory tower making assumptions on top of assumptions. I mean, there's some of that, but at least there are people trying to generate good data to support better assertions and models over time.
-
Comment on What common misunderstanding do you want to clear up? in ~talk
cdb (edited )Link ParentYeah, I'm also uncertain about that generalization. Maybe I overgeneralized his statement because I can think of plenty of counterexamples on both sides, so I feel like there's needs to be some...Yeah, I'm also uncertain about that generalization. Maybe I overgeneralized his statement because I can think of plenty of counterexamples on both sides, so I feel like there's needs to be some supporting data for this assertion. Otherwise it's just playing to your emotions. I'm not sure how you'd measure this though. I'm generally not a fan of blaming certain groups of people for our problems though. It's basically always overly reductive and drags the discussion towards finger-pointing rather than anything productive. Also, this feels a little like anti-intellectualism. I'm totally fine with legitimate criticisms, but saying that "intellectuals are biased and believe [something obviously stupid]" just rubs me the wrong way. Ultimately this feels like blaming without offering a good solution, other than perhaps watching this guy's videos and buying his book.
What's the Sowell claim you're referencing?
-
Comment on What common misunderstanding do you want to clear up? in ~talk
cdb LinkWhat the media reports about experts is not the same as what experts think about and consider. Now that I've written this down, I'm thinking this is mostly just the result of Crichton's Gell-Mann...What the media reports about experts is not the same as what experts think about and consider.
Now that I've written this down, I'm thinking this is mostly just the result of Crichton's Gell-Mann Amnesia.
Briefly stated, the Gell-Mann Amnesia effect is as follows. You open the newspaper to an article on some subject you know well. In Murray's case, physics. In mine, show business. You read the article and see the journalist has absolutely no understanding of either the facts or the issues. Often, the article is so wrong it actually presents the story backward—reversing cause and effect. I call these the "wet streets cause rain" stories. Paper's full of them.
In any case, you read with exasperation or amusement the multiple errors in a story, and then turn the page to national or international affairs, and read as if the rest of the newspaper was somehow more accurate about Palestine than the baloney you just read. You turn the page, and forget what you know.
It seems like the overwhelming opinion from internet comments is that this is the case on pretty much any technical topic. Despite the fact that this is such a popular sentiment, it also seems like there are an overwhelming number of comments on the internet such as "they never think about [thing that they definitely do think about]" or "they should just try [thing they have definitely tried and might already be in common practice]" where it seems like people are making confident statements using assumptions about various experts in fields using a headline-level of understanding, and those often end up as the most popular comments. A lot of internet discourse on topics I know a lot about are just a bunch of baloney based on a bunch of baloney headlines or baloney tiktoks.
-
Comment on What common misunderstanding do you want to clear up? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentI've only seen this one video and check out his wikipedia page after, but this guy sounds like a populist guru type who appeals to emotions but doesn't cite any facts. He gets the cred from having...I've only seen this one video and check out his wikipedia page after, but this guy sounds like a populist guru type who appeals to emotions but doesn't cite any facts. He gets the cred from having made a few good bets in the past and having the Oxford education, then he says that academics are stupid, which he knows because he was there. He says that his predictions about the economy were right and academics were constantly wrong, which to me is a warning sign, because anyone who can do this consistently would be more of a household name, or at least a famous name among people following finance. He says that he made a lot of money as a trader, and immediately turns around and says you shouldn't trust rich people because they don't understand the rest of the populace. Not sure how that's congruent, but yeah you should listen to this oxford educated rich person and not the other rich academics.
Long story short, it kind of sounds like he's just trying to convince you to distrust those doing research and trust him instead, so it sounds like FUD to me. It's not that he's against experts, he's against experts who are not him.
-
Comment on Disney decides it hasn’t angered people enough, announces Disney+ price hikes in ~tv
cdb Link ParentAlthough I'm not working on it myself, I know my company has quite a lot of data going into its pricing, but I'm definitely just speculating in this case. I was thinking more like some number...Although I'm not working on it myself, I know my company has quite a lot of data going into its pricing, but I'm definitely just speculating in this case.
I was thinking more like some number cruncher considers average annual loss from boycotts or somesuch along with a hundred other factors and rolls it up in some figure about risk and variance and whatnot, and if projections stay within a certain range there's no reason to hit the panic button on price increases. I mean, Disney seems to have some calls for boycott every other year, with the Snow White thing last year, the Lightyear thing, Mulan actress Hong Kong thing, etc. I'm sure this risk has got to have some effect on their plans, but they've got to be used to it by now. I could be wrong about their ability to react quickly, but I would think that if a ton of people actually unsubscribed, they might consider tapping the brakes on a price increase. So, maybe this isn't really a black swan event, because those are by definition impactful.
-
Comment on Disney decides it hasn’t angered people enough, announces Disney+ price hikes in ~tv
cdb (edited )Link ParentThey probably don't have Hari Seldon on staff, but I'm sure they do not price things arbitrarily. I remember seeing a news story about Target sending out pregnancy related ads to people to people...They probably don't have Hari Seldon on staff, but I'm sure they do not price things arbitrarily.
I remember seeing a news story about Target sending out pregnancy related ads to people to people who hadn't yet told their family about it, based on analytics on their purchases. I just looked it up, and that was in 2012, so 13 years ago. The amount of data collection and analysis has increased by a huge amount since then. I'm sure there's a lot more data behind corporate decisions than most people might imagine.
-
Comment on Disney decides it hasn’t angered people enough, announces Disney+ price hikes in ~tv
cdb (edited )LinkMy guess is they already have items like probability of boycott and projected losses from boycotts already baked into their forecasting. This recent one probably didn't exceed their expectations,...My guess is they already have items like probability of boycott and projected losses from boycotts already baked into their forecasting. This recent one probably didn't exceed their expectations, so there wasn't a need to put an emergency stop to their pricing plans. So yeah, they literally did not anger enough people for anything to matter.
I'm a little disappointed that there wasn't a stronger response to this recent FCC Kimmel issue though. I considered this a serious case of censorship, and I cancelled my Disney+ subscription in response. Not a huge action, but I don't know what else I can do.
-
Comment on Dark patterns killed my wife's Windows 11 installation in ~tech
cdb Link ParentI've used a samsung phone on and off over the years and primarily use a windows desktop. It doesn't happen automatically. You have to turn on the onedrive sync. Regarding the article, I think the...I've used a samsung phone on and off over the years and primarily use a windows desktop. It doesn't happen automatically. You have to turn on the onedrive sync.
The first dark pattern is Samsung enabling the OneDrive synchronisation feature without my wife’s consent and without informing her. The second dark pattern is Microsoft reinstalling OneDrive onto my wife’s PC without my wife’s consent and without informing her. The third dark pattern is OneDrive secretely downloading 280GB of photos and videos without once realising this was way more data than her root drive could store.
Regarding the article, I think the first and third dark patterns listed are really just part of the second one. I'm pretty sure they did agree to the sync and turned on local syncing, but only because they were bombarded with frequent popups on Windows trying to get them to turn on onedrive and android phone sync. If you accidentally click "OK" just once without realizing, you're signed up forever because you probably won't realize you've done it unless it causes a problem.
-
Comment on What words do you recommend? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentI know people never agree on these things since they can be regional, but as an American, I'd like to suggest "POR-tuh co-SHARE". You can't just say "port" because us lazy Americans end words like...I know people never agree on these things since they can be regional, but as an American, I'd like to suggest "POR-tuh co-SHARE".
You can't just say "port" because us lazy Americans end words like this with a glottal stop rather than actually pronouncing the "t" at the end. Also, "chere" in French sounds more like "share" in English. Finally, emphasis was added using upper case to de-emphasize the "tuh" and because words like "co-chair" or "copilot" always have emphasis on the "co" which would be wrong here.
-
Comment on Why do some gamers invert their controls? Scientists now have answers, but they’re not what you think. in ~games
cdb Link ParentAlthough ADHD isn't specifically one of the factors in the paper, it seems like they did ask some questions in the survey that are similar to questions on ADHD questionnaires. This was represented...Although ADHD isn't specifically one of the factors in the paper, it seems like they did ask some questions in the survey that are similar to questions on ADHD questionnaires. This was represented by the "ITQFocus" item, which didn't predict invertedness preference.
Some question examples out of about 30 along similar lines:
Do you ever get extremely involved in projects that are assigned to you by your boss or your instructor, to the exclusion of other tasks?
How easily can you switch your attention from the task in which you are currently involved to a new task?
-
Comment on Why do some gamers invert their controls? Scientists now have answers, but they’re not what you think. in ~games
cdb (edited )Link ParentI'm pretty sure that whether you invert or not has nothing to do with left or right handedness, and it was just an off the cuff example to say that people may not know if they're using the type of...I'm pretty sure that whether you invert or not has nothing to do with left or right handedness, and it was just an off the cuff example to say that people may not know if they're using the type of controls that best suits them until they try it out both ways. The research article doesn't seem to mention handedness as a factor in invertedness preference, other than that they recorded it.
Edit: my crtl-f failed me. It does have handedness in the results, and it's not a strong predictor of inversion preference
-
Comment on I made a tool to generate AI powered recaps of TTRPG sessions in ~games.tabletop
cdb Link ParentI know OP has already answered, but I've tried a similar thing with live sessions by recording audio with my phone, using the on device transcription, then giving it to Gemini, prompting to...I know OP has already answered, but I've tried a similar thing with live sessions by recording audio with my phone, using the on device transcription, then giving it to Gemini, prompting to generate summaries with the context of a DND session, keeping in mind that it's a transcription with errors, and asking it to ignore irrelevant banter. The summaries were really good, including a comprehensive rundown of what happened in the campaign while ignoring all the side chatter. I didn't ask any specific questions about the session though.
If we were talking about an individual case I'd want to be more human about it, but I'm not sure it's appropriate to apply the "victim blaming" label to these kinds of analyses at the population level. Given that the majority of pedestrian deaths are associated with " jaywalking, failing to properly yield, or improperly in the road" with the percentage increasing over time, I think it's appropriate to explore what's going on with pedestrian behavior. Plus, there are some studies that correlate pedestrian phone use with increased accident risk. I'm just saying that I haven't see enough data to show whether it's one of the more significant contributing factors to the recent increase in pedestrians killed by cars.