cdb's recent activity
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Comment on What's something new you started doing this year? in ~talk
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Comment on What are your predictions for 2025? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentMaybe I and C, but B, R, and S have declined in global economic influence. India is the most interesting to me, with the highest population and possibly the most room to gain.Maybe I and C, but B, R, and S have declined in global economic influence. India is the most interesting to me, with the highest population and possibly the most room to gain.
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Comment on What are your predictions for 2025? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentUnfortunately, my prediction is that the economy will be quite good for the next few years, thanks to somewhat ok management for the past few years, but Trump will take credit for it. Based on...Unfortunately, my prediction is that the economy will be quite good for the next few years, thanks to somewhat ok management for the past few years, but Trump will take credit for it. Based on what the president actually has the power to do, how fast he can do it, and how fast the impact of those changes will percolate through the economy, it takes a few years for things to start showing signs of mismanagement.
For example, the federal deficit increased every year Trump was in office. Then the trend in national debt that Trump started got blamed on Biden.
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Comment on What are your predictions for 2025? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentIt's a scarcity issue. Even if the cost to produce is not that high, if you can't get any more the price will go up due to competition. I think eggs are a good example of something like that with...It's a scarcity issue. Even if the cost to produce is not that high, if you can't get any more the price will go up due to competition. I think eggs are a good example of something like that with a faster cycle. Eggs went up in price this year due to an avian flu outbreak. Even if the average cost to produce an egg didn't go up by that much, in the short term, you couldn't just go make more eggs; those chickens were already dead, so prices went up due to competition for the surviving production of eggs.
Same deal with housing. In the US we've built so much sprawl that there is a shortage of housing units in urban areas. In the longer term we could build more dense housing to counter ballooning prices, but there are structural limitations (like zoning issues or NIMBYs).
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Comment on Never forgive them - On digital platforms vs users in ~tech
cdb Link ParentHonestly, based on the rest of the article, I don't feel like I can take the author's review of the device at face value. Here's a review from Laptopmag. To me, the review suggests that it's a...Honestly, based on the rest of the article, I don't feel like I can take the author's review of the device at face value. Here's a review from Laptopmag. To me, the review suggests that it's a totally usable device, if a bit slow compared to much more expensive alternatives.
Bottom Line
If you're on a strict budget, the 14-inch Acer Aspire 1 is an impressive laptop. With a sharp, 14-inch display and slim, lightweight design, the Aspire is a far cry from the ugly, low-resolution devices we typically see in this price range. It also has a strong selection of ports and a solid keyboard.
Unfortunately, the Aspire's plastic chassis exhibits a concerning amount of flex, battery life could be improved, and the webcam is practically useless.I looked up a Fry's Black Friday ad from 2004, and it had a bottom spec celeron laptop for $500, and that was back when Black Friday was actually good. I actually lined up starting at 2am or something to shop at Fry's that year. I guarantee that that the 2004 laptop was way slower and worse overall than this $238 laptop. Meanwhile, first decile (cutoff for bottom 10%) wages have nearly doubled since then. So, half price and double wages for the lowest price product/consumers. I look back with fondness on older devices, but I also remember that even 10 years ago most laptops were sold with spinning disk drives, which were quite slow.
I agree with you that a filtered experience is not a good thing. I'm also a big believer in net neutrality (I donated 1% of my take home salary to EFF this year). As the author says, this is basically a windows version of a chromebook, which I'm not fond of, but I don't have massive moral qualms with, as long as reasonable alternatives exist. I consider chromeos a competitive alternative to the Windows hegemony. On this laptop, at least you can turn off S mode, with the instructions suggesting that it's just a few clicks. Getting linux on a chromebook is a bit more work (crouton is a lot more work than turning off S mode). The author suggests that this kind of experience is very common but seems to be making the numbers up ("millions"). The same argument would apply to almost all smartphones, since ios and android both only install apps from a single store by default as well. While I can see room for many improvements to these systems, I don't think it's the disaster the author is claiming it to be.
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Comment on What's something new you started doing this year? in ~talk
cdb LinkI started biking to work, on average 2 times a week for the past few months. It's an electric bike, but with a torque sensor so I'm still getting some exercise. It seems like I'm in zone 2...I started biking to work, on average 2 times a week for the past few months.
It's an electric bike, but with a torque sensor so I'm still getting some exercise. It seems like I'm in zone 2 heartrate most of the time, so that's perfect for increasing aerobic capacity without getting too sweaty. Electric bikes are a wonderful invention. I would never do this on a regular bike because of the distance and steep hills between home and work (I tried once on the weekend but turned around halfway). Getting some cardio and being outside seems to have had positive effects on my mood.
The downside is that I don't listen to anything while I'm riding for safety reasons, so it's taking me longer to get through my audiobooks.
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Comment on How to pass the time when you have nothing to do at work and just your phone? in ~talk
cdb Link ParentNot even for IT-related training, or anything else along those lines? I feel like if your concern is getting caught, it might be best to fill most of your downtime on stuff that could actually be...Not even for IT-related training, or anything else along those lines?
I feel like if your concern is getting caught, it might be best to fill most of your downtime on stuff that could actually be construed as work, such as professional development.
Is there anything else that looks kind of like work? Some of my goofing off at work is looking at economic data, which is usually tables and charts. I work with a lot of tables and charts so at worst it's maybe working on my data viz skills?
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Comment on Never forgive them - On digital platforms vs users in ~tech
cdb (edited )LinkThe first line about word count should have warned me that this was more of a long rant than a well-distilled argument. Although the article brings up some good points, the biggest problem I have...The first line about word count should have warned me that this was more of a long rant than a well-distilled argument. Although the article brings up some good points, the biggest problem I have is that it complains about a lot of things without considering the tradeoff the other way. For example, the author complains that companies subscribe to the Microsoft bundle because it's cheaper, not because it's better. Might it be important to consider that the employee experience might decrease in quality in other ways if the company is spending more on software, such as lower compensation, working environment, or lack of budget for other tools? I know big organizations often make suboptimal decisions, but I doubt most moderately well-functioning companies would choose a software that results in a massive hit in productivity without balancing the cost a bit. In larger companies it's probably someone's job to make a powerpoint every year justifying the cost vs. estimated productivity of various software options. Maybe they're making the wrong decisions sometimes, but I'm sure many companies are at least trying.
A related point is the laptop example. Despite the author's complaints, I think it's kind of bonkers that you can get a decently functioning laptop for $238. That's like getting a $120 laptop in the year 2000, scaling by median income, which is craziness. You can get something with much more normal specs for ~$400. What if you only have $238 though? If it were 20 years ago, you just get nothing. I think it's a good thing that you can get an incredibly cheap computing device these days, even if there are some tradeoffs. More midrange priced laptops are in my opinion much better than the laptops of the past. The author mentions income disparity, but based on the numbers I think this is an area that got better overall.
While reading the parts about unnecessary change over time in tech, I starting thinking about Sears, which is a company that is often held up as an example of a market leader who died due to failure to adapt to a changing world. So why should these apps change over time? Maybe the world is changing, and they don't want to be left behind. If that's the case, just following the current is not enough to keep up, you have to attempt to predict what customers will want, otherwise some more forward-thinking company will eat your lunch. Are these changes a good or bad thing? I don't know, but as far as retail, I prefer not to have to drive to the store, park in a huge parking lot, walk around the store for an hour, and then maybe not find the thing that I needed. I don't know if trends in social media apps are going in a direction that I personally like, but at least they have become a lot easier to use.
So overall, while I see the value in highlighting unfavorable trends in tech, reading this article felt like viewing the world through a filter that only shows you the negative side of the world. It's easy to pick out problems with things, but I'm not seeing a lot of good solutions proposed that don't sacrifice the positives. There is an inherent conflict between quality and the resources needed to achieve that quality, and the author seems to want both sides. He claims that companies are too cheap to buy or make better things, but he is also too cheap to buy better things. This sentiment is exactly how we got ourselves into this situation to begin with. My feeling is that there is more of a spectrum of products these days. If the product is free/cheap, then the quality will reflect that, but there are also higher quality products out there at a cost.
I guess my response ended up being a long rant too.
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Comment on A few questions about replacing our clothes washing machine in ~life
cdb Link ParentThese types of machines are really appealing to me. I'm getting ready for work right now, and I've just grabbed the last undershirt in the stack. It would be awesome to be able to just throw the...These types of machines are really appealing to me. I'm getting ready for work right now, and I've just grabbed the last undershirt in the stack. It would be awesome to be able to just throw the laundry in the machine now and have it be done when I get home. Instead I just emptied my hamper into my laundry basket and set it by the door, leaving another chore to do when I get home.
It would be a waste to replace my working appliances though, so I doubt I'll be buying a combo unit any time soon.
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Comment on ‘Unprecedented risk’ to life on Earth: Scientists call for halt on ‘mirror life’ microbe research in ~science
cdb (edited )Link ParentIt's the same thing. I am a chemist, and I also can't figure out what the statement "Stuff like glucose shouldn't be affected by chirality" means in the context of this conversation. Yes, it's...I'm not sure the chirality described here is the same thing as the various chiral configurations of a chemical like glucose?
It's the same thing.
I am a chemist, and I also can't figure out what the statement "Stuff like glucose shouldn't be affected by chirality" means in the context of this conversation.
Yes, it's true that humans interact with different chiralities (stereoisomers) of some chemicals. For example, lactose is made up of glucose and galactose (a stereoisomer of glucose). We digest galactose by converting it to glucose. We can't digest the mirror image (enantiomer) of glucose, but some bacteria can. So while I'm not a biochemistry expert, I'm having trouble getting on board with the idea that enantiomeric opposite organisms would be impossible for current organisms to interact with, although I'm not saying that I couldn't envision any dangers either. I think the activity of creating different living things is inherently dangerous. For example, a new virus or bacterium could wipe out all of humanity whether it's based on a mirror image or not.
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Comment on She didn’t get an apartment because of an AI-generated score – and sued to help others avoid the same fate in ~life
cdb (edited )Link ParentI read your comment over three times, and I honestly don't feel like there is a strong definition in there that could be applied to say whether a thing is AI or not. AI definitely has a broader...I read your comment over three times, and I honestly don't feel like there is a strong definition in there that could be applied to say whether a thing is AI or not.
AI definitely has a broader definition than ML targeted towards certain users. Also, this is impossible to actually pin down as a definition because it depends on who is doing the targeting.
AI also definitely cannot be defined by the power consumption, amount of data, and type of equipment used. That's a definition based on methods we are using to accomplish a certain goal rather than defining the goal. It's like saying that the definition of "splitting wood" is "when people use an axe."
If there is a definition that has been eroded, what did that original whole and complete definition look like?
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Comment on She didn’t get an apartment because of an AI-generated score – and sued to help others avoid the same fate in ~life
cdb Link ParentWhat would you say is a good definition of AI?What would you say is a good definition of AI?
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Comment on BuzzFeed sold 'Hot Ones' studio for $82.5 million to consortium including First We Feast's founder, host Sean Evans, Crooked Media, Mythical Entertainment, and Soros Fund Management. in ~tech
cdb LinkI was just wondering the other day if Hot Ones had hit its peak. Seems like Buzzfeed thinks so. I've enjoyed watching some of these interviews, but they seem to have run through a good portion of...I was just wondering the other day if Hot Ones had hit its peak. Seems like Buzzfeed thinks so. I've enjoyed watching some of these interviews, but they seem to have run through a good portion of the really famous people by now (no shade to the ones who haven't been on the show yet). I feel like they might need some new concepts to continue to be successful in the long term. I've tried watching some of their other videos, but I didn't find them that interesting.
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Comment on A liar who always lies says “All my hats are green.” in ~science
cdb Link ParentSorry, I don't understand what you're getting at here. If you acknowledge the presupposition, then the given answer to the OP riddle is incorrect (he must have hats if you take "my hats" as a...In the sentiment above, there's this strange refusal to acknowledge the presupposition
Sorry, I don't understand what you're getting at here. If you acknowledge the presupposition, then the given answer to the OP riddle is incorrect (he must have hats if you take "my hats" as a statement that you are not talking about nothing). If you're saying that we cannot take a presupposition as part of a statement in conversation, I would disagree with you, since the use of presuppositions is a huge part of how we communicate. So, could you please clarify this point?
You mention violating presuppositions, and I think most people would say that abuse of presuppositions is a form of lying. For example, if I say "our wall on the border, it's keeping immigrants out, and it's a wonderful wall," when there is no wall, that's known in common parlance as lying.
I wouldn't say that these concepts are similar to making unfounded assumptions on studies unless some headline or article has added descriptions of things that don't exist, which I've said is considered lying. I feel that linking this to a rejection of critical thinking is not an idea that I can agree with. I say that this is more a semantic argument on whether something would be called a lie or not rather than a rejection of any logical concept.
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Comment on A liar who always lies says “All my hats are green.” in ~science
cdb (edited )Link ParentThis suffers from the same problem as all the other objections in this thread. If you told this to anyone other than a logician in conversation, they would assume you went on an apple picking...My weekend picking trips yielded no apples
This suffers from the same problem as all the other objections in this thread. If you told this to anyone other than a logician in conversation, they would assume you went on an apple picking trip. If you didn't, it's a nonsense statement that might make people think you lied to them, just like my dog example where there is a story with many details about a dog that never existed. It may be correct in logic, but it's not correct in conversational language.
My point with the apple example is that once you have some number of apples, you can't really multiply them by zero in real life. Once you start describing things, you can't go back and say there was no thing to begin with. But in math 24 * 0 = 0, and in logic you can truthfully call things any color you want if they don't exist. These concepts might be real and useful, but they don't always have a good real-life mapping, which is what is happening here.
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Comment on A liar who always lies says “All my hats are green.” in ~science
cdb Link ParentBased on my one discrete math class, the way I think about it is anything you say about an empty set is like multiplying by zero. You can throw in whatever numbers you want, but as soon as you...Based on my one discrete math class, the way I think about it is anything you say about an empty set is like multiplying by zero. You can throw in whatever numbers you want, but as soon as you multiply the whole thing by zero it's just zero. You can say whatever modifiers you want about an empty set, but they all become meaningless because empty is empty.
That's just in the abstract though. Once you start translating it to real life and ordinary language these things don't apply. If I've gone apple picking three times and picked 8 apples each time, it's nonsense to say I then went apple picking zero times and have a result of zero total apples picked. If I tell a story about how I took my dog to the park, the dog ate some chocolate it found on the ground so I had to take it to the vet, and also I don't own a dog and there was never any dog to begin with... that's not so much false as it is nonsense.
I think if we can accept that multiplying by zero is a thing that is useful in abstract, it's not too far off to accept that vacuous truths are useful in abstract as well. I don't feel that this particular riddle is terribly good as a riddle since there is not a good plain language interpretation, but as mentioned elsewhere it might be an ok intro to some logic concepts.
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Comment on Your returns most likely end up on the landfill and you are paying for it in ~enviro
cdb (edited )Link ParentI'm not sure if that would necessarily decrease prices. Adding thresholds like that tends to have weird effects. It's possible that a more restrictive return policy results in lower demand for...I'm not sure if that would necessarily decrease prices. Adding thresholds like that tends to have weird effects.
It's possible that a more restrictive return policy results in lower demand for certain products, which lowers the economies of scale, which increases the price. Or maybe lower sales leads to fewer overall orders, which decreases the efficiency of of trucks on the road, which increases costs, which increases prices. Or maybe the threshold causes online retailers to optimize for that amount of waste even if natural conditions might occasionally result in lower waste. I'm not saying these will necessarily happen, just providing some examples of how unexpected effects might occur.
I would think that if landfill area and costs were an issue, the better idea would be to increase the cost of disposal to accurately reflect those costs or maybe even above costs if the goal is to disincentivize waste. Then online retailers could decide for themselves what the optimal policy would be for them, and municipalities wouldn't struggle as much to deal with the result if the amount of waste generated is not as expected.
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Comment on A liar who always lies says “All my hats are green.” in ~science
cdb Link ParentHere's a collection of riddles I had a lot of fun with about 20 years ago. https://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~wwu/riddles/easy.shtml Thanks for prompting me to go look for this. It brought back a lot...Here's a collection of riddles I had a lot of fun with about 20 years ago.
https://www.ocf.berkeley.edu/~wwu/riddles/easy.shtml
Thanks for prompting me to go look for this. It brought back a lot of memories.
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Comment on Introducing ChatGPT Pro in ~tech
cdb (edited )Link ParentWe know we can increase accuracy by making the LLM check its own work, but it costs a ton more compute for a modest increase in accuracy. Totally speculation, but based on the announcement saying...We know we can increase accuracy by making the LLM check its own work, but it costs a ton more compute for a modest increase in accuracy. Totally speculation, but based on the announcement saying that it "thinks longer" I assume this is it, and they're not advertising it too hard because the general public would obviously balk at such a price.
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Comment on Introducing ChatGPT Pro in ~tech
cdb Link ParentWell, my main point is that something doesn't have to be 10x better to be worth paying 10x the price. Although I can't say whether this particular product is worth it's asking price. However,...Well, my main point is that something doesn't have to be 10x better to be worth paying 10x the price. Although I can't say whether this particular product is worth it's asking price.
However, unless I'm interpreting things wrong, half of the linked announcement is charts demonstrating improved accuracy and reliability in some benchmarks. I have no idea how realistic these claims are, but they are claiming it.
Thanks for the suggestion. I considered bone conduction headphones, but I decided that it was more of an issue of not distracting myself rather than whether I could hear things around me.