Other countries haven’t seen this increase in pedestrian deaths: in every other high-income country, rates are flat or declining. Whatever’s causing the problem seems to be limited to the US.
...
Looking at the data, the strongest evidence seems to be for the “big SUV” hypothesis: the fatality rate for pedestrian accidents has increased dramatically across a variety of states, pointing to “pedestrian accidents becoming more deadly” as a major cause of the increase. But the case for it isn’t open and shut, as pedestrian deaths involving sedans and compacts have also increased. And while there isn’t much evidence for the “distracted by phones” hypothesis, it’s also hard to rule it out completely.
...
If we look at pedestrian deaths per capita, we see that deaths are much more frequent in the West and the South, and less frequent in the Northeast and the Midwest. This does not appear to be due to larger amounts of driving in the South and the West. There’s little correlation between the number of vehicle miles traveled and the pedestrian death rate.
...
If we look at the change in pedestrian deaths over time, we can see that the rise in pedestrian deaths is worse in the South, but besides a handful of states (Minnesota, Rhode Island, New York, West Virginia, New Jersey, and Vermont), every state has seen substantial increases in pedestrian deaths. Whatever’s causing the increase in US pedestrian deaths is happening across the country.
...
The increase in fatalities is essentially entirely on urban roads — deaths on rural roads are flat. On most categories of urban road, pedestrian fatalities have doubled. Whatever is causing the increase in pedestrian deaths, it’s only happening in urban areas.
...
Most pedestrian deaths occur at night, but the rate hasn’t changed much (the fraction of deaths between 6pm and 6am is up slightly from 69% in 2009 to 75% in 2023). Whatever’s causing the increase in pedestrian deaths doesn’t seem specific to one time of day.
Nor is it specific to one time of week. Deaths have become somewhat less likely to occur on Friday and Saturday, and somewhat more likely to occur during the week, but the shift isn’t dramatic.
It’s also not specific to one time of year. The graph below shows pedestrian fatality frequency by month. Pedestrian deaths are more likely to occur in the fall and winter (presumably because there are fewer daylight hours and more driving in darkness), but monthly rates haven’t changed at all.
...
Deaths of children under 10 are actually down significantly (167 deaths in 2009 to 98 deaths in 2023), and deaths for ages 10-19 are down as well. The biggest increase in deaths actually comes from older age brackets: 30-39 year old deaths are up 153%, 60-69 year olds up 167%, and 70-79 year olds up 119%. So the problem isn’t young kids increasingly getting hit by cars that can’t see them.
What about the age of drivers?
Deaths are up in every driver age bracket, with older brackets (30-39, 60-69 and 70-79) up the most in percentage terms. So the problem isn’t reckless young drivers.
Interestingly, driver drug and alcohol use in pedestrian fatalities is greatly exceeded by pedestrian alcohol and drug use. (Pedestrian drug use in particular has more than tripled since 2009, while alcohol use is only up modestly.) It’s not enough to explain all of the huge increase in pedestrian deaths, but it’s notable.
...
Pedestrian accidents getting more deadly seems like fairly strong evidence for the theory that the rise in large SUVs is behind the uptick in pedestrian deaths: it’s not that more pedestrians are getting hit by vehicles, it’s that the ones that are getting hit are more likely to die. There’s other evidence that points to this theory. A study by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety analyzed 17,897 pedestrian accidents across seven states, and found pedestrians were substantially more likely to be killed when struck by tall vehicles and vehicles with blunt front ends.
However, there’s also some muddying evidence here. If the increase of size and frequency of trucks and SUVs was behind the increase in pedestrian deaths, we wouldn’t expect to see an increase in the frequency of pedestrians killed by sedans or compact cars. However, if we look at pedestrian deaths by model of car, we see that pedestrian deaths involving popular sedans have increased as well. Pedestrian deaths involving Honda Civics and Accords, Toyota Corollas and Camrys, and Nissan Altimas have all increased substantially.
Are these (and other sedans and compact cars) being built the same as they have in the past, though? one could easily see other classes of vehicle still being influenced by the US SUV trend and...
Pedestrian deaths involving Honda Civics and Accords, Toyota Corollas and Camrys, and Nissan Altimas have all increased substantially.
Are these (and other sedans and compact cars) being built the same as they have in the past, though? one could easily see other classes of vehicle still being influenced by the US SUV trend and changing in size or shape (or some other way that affects visibility and/or lethality in the case of a pedestrian crash) over the years.
I can't comment on hood height, but I've driven a lot of fleet cars across a few different countries, so can comment generally, and as a Car Person: the current generation Civic is as big as...
I can't comment on hood height, but I've driven a lot of fleet cars across a few different countries, so can comment generally, and as a Car Person:
the current generation Civic is as big as previous gen Accords (Edit: see below, not true. My mistake.)
the current generation Corolla is far bigger than previous generations. Owned several, drive a family member's new one frequently. This trend is observable across the small car market (Mazda 3, Impreza, Hyundai i30, even luxury compacts like the BMW 1 Series and Mercedes A class)
The 'cross' version of compact cars sell far better than the regular 'city' versions of the car. For example, the Corolla Cross, a lifted Corolla, has months or years long wait times in many markets. Same with the Subaru Crosstrek, which is a lifted version of the Impreza, the Mazda CX-30, a lifted version of the Mazda 3, etc. So even cars in the 'compact' section with higher ride heights and hood heights are selling better.
The current generation Accord and Camry have more mass (kerb weight), and have lengthened and widened compared to previous iterations over the last 15 years. The hood height is roughly the same. But my hypothesis would be that mass is still lethal when it's a kinetic energy transfer to a human body.
But, at the same time, stopping time has decreased for all the cars mentioned, with improvements to braking technology and auto-brake coming standard for many models if a pedestrian is detected, so it's not like Honda or Toyota are intentionally building death machines.
I think a very large factor (from anecdotal observation) is that the European and Japanese markets have sub-compact models available (Toyota Yaris, Kia Picanto, VW Polo, Honda Fit, Mazda 2), only some of which are available in the US. And again, anecdotally, I do not see them when I visit the US nearly as frequently as I see them in other countries I go.
Very very anecdotally, with a sample size of just me, I got given a sub-compact Nissan Versa after a hire-car company in the Northeast United States messed up and ran out of sedans. I had to take it due to time and felt very vulnerable on freeways given the ride height and the mass of the SUVs and trucks surrounding me.
I don't think I'd be comfortable purchasing sub-compact in the United States as I'd be almost guaranteed to come off worse in an accident, even though it's the car that best suits my needs, has the lowest cost to maintain, and the lowest costs to run.
As a Car Person, I have noticed, anecdotally, that speeding and drink driving are much more normalised in the US than anywhere else I've driven. This may just be the parts of the US I've driven, but most of the places where I am a Car Person have automated speed cameras, hidden-and-moveable speed-cameras, point-to-point average speed cameras, random drug and alcohol testing (especially during sporting events or celebrations), and more dicencentives to driving like a crazy person.
I can imagine that habits built up on freeways transfer into cities - I have observed close friends who are otherwise sane people doing outrageously dangerous things in urban driving and getting frustrated when friends/family 'aren't fast enough' or 'let that guy in'. And these are nice, normal, people, who suddenly see red and start to road rage as soon as they're behind the wheel. In my experience driving in the US is much more stressful, regardless of road type, which may lead to poorer decision making, and greater distraction.
The current (11th) gen is no bigger than the 10th gen (which I own), and has been mostly static for at least a decade. It also has a lower roof line than the Fit, which is by all measures a...
the current generation Civic is as big as previous gen Accords
The current (11th) gen is no bigger than the 10th gen (which I own), and has been mostly static for at least a decade. It also has a lower roof line than the Fit, which is by all measures a compact hatchback, and a bumper/hood height typical of sedans for the past twenty years. The Camry has similarly been mostly unchanged in footprint for the past twenty five years.
The seventh generation was introduced in 2000. The Civic's footprint and curb weight (approx 3000lb) have been almost identical for a quarter of a century, and squarely in the traditional compact sedan category. (Yes, the early 90s ones were smaller, closer in line with the Fit. But that's stretching it in terms of relevance.)
Overall average vehicle sizes, in ownership terms, have increased rapidly due to the prevalence of SUVs and pickup trucks, but the sedans still standing have not had radical changes to their dimensions in a very long time.
Edit: You can go all the way back to 1998 for an Accord if you want, and get a much lengthier 188.8L x 70.3W x 56.9H. Length is the primary differentiator in compact vs midsize sedans.
Damn, thanks for the correction. I could have sworn that the four-door Civics have been getting bigger. After searching, I think I accidentally compared a previous gen four-door hatch version to...
Damn, thanks for the correction.
I could have sworn that the four-door Civics have been getting bigger. After searching, I think I accidentally compared a previous gen four-door hatch version to the current gen sedan version. I thought they'd discontinued the four-door hatch.
I compared hatches across the board, because I'm a fan of hatchbacks, and they're what I personally observe the most of when I notice Civics in the wild. They kind of change which trim levels it's...
I compared hatches across the board, because I'm a fan of hatchbacks, and they're what I personally observe the most of when I notice Civics in the wild. They kind of change which trim levels it's offered at for some years...like I think you can't currently get the SI as a hatchback unlike in previous years, but you can for every other trim. (I currently drive a previous generation ST hatch.)
Japanese cars are also heavily constrained by the Japanese government's tax policies as well, so there isn't a lot of variance. You pay a lot more to register larger vehicles, so there's pressure to keep them in certain brackets. That's semi-famously why the Fit was introduced: the Civic just slightly tipped outside of a weight or dimensional limit, and they wanted to make sure they had an offering that would have a lower tax rate. (Then you have the kei class with engine displacements measured in cc.)
Interesting that in the graphic comparing different countries, two other countries have an uptick starting at 2021. However, due to that graphic's design, it is nearly impossible to tell which...
Interesting that in the graphic comparing different countries, two other countries have an uptick starting at 2021. However, due to that graphic's design, it is nearly impossible to tell which country.
The 30-39 and 60-79 age brackets have seen the largest increase in victims. Pedestrian deaths of children and teenagers are down over this period.
I wonder if this is more due to the fact that kids are less seen around on the streets unaccompanied as often as they used to be. Are kids being hit less because they are outside less?
Great article. Well thought out analysis with lots of supporting data. Thanks for posting. Seems like a complex problem overall. I liked some of the comments on the site as well. Aside from the...
Great article. Well thought out analysis with lots of supporting data. Thanks for posting.
Seems like a complex problem overall. I liked some of the comments on the site as well. Aside from the "Big SUV" and drug use assertions supported by the data, I think the lower visibility due to focus on car occupant safety seems like the most interesting avenue to look into further. From just a quick google, it seems there are some quantitative studies showing increases in blind spots in newer cars, but I didn't find studies specifically correlating this with fatalities. I also thought the distracted pedestrian angle might be interesting too, but I'm having a hard time coming up with a reason why that might affect the US and not other countries. It's just anecdotal, but from what I've observed while traveling, people in European cities seemed to use their phones while walking just as often as in the US.
If we were talking about an individual case I'd want to be more human about it, but I'm not sure it's appropriate to apply the "victim blaming" label to these kinds of analyses at the population...
If we were talking about an individual case I'd want to be more human about it, but I'm not sure it's appropriate to apply the "victim blaming" label to these kinds of analyses at the population level. Given that the majority of pedestrian deaths are associated with " jaywalking, failing to properly yield, or improperly in the road" with the percentage increasing over time, I think it's appropriate to explore what's going on with pedestrian behavior. Plus, there are some studies that correlate pedestrian phone use with increased accident risk. I'm just saying that I haven't see enough data to show whether it's one of the more significant contributing factors to the recent increase in pedestrians killed by cars.
You would think Canada would track the US quite closely here, given that we drive mostly the same vehicles. Maybe there is more than 'big SUV/truck' at play?
You would think Canada would track the US quite closely here, given that we drive mostly the same vehicles. Maybe there is more than 'big SUV/truck' at play?
Bare minimum, lots of the USA allows right turn on red. Poorly designed and marked crosswalks. Poor to 0 sidewalks everywhere. A hyperfocus on individuality to the point empathy is considered a...
Bare minimum, lots of the USA allows right turn on red. Poorly designed and marked crosswalks. Poor to 0 sidewalks everywhere. A hyperfocus on individuality to the point empathy is considered a bad thing by a very large minority.
Laws in general always putting cars first, and victim blaming pedestrians and cyclists.
My hypothesis based on driving in both countries is that driving in the US is far more aggressive and competitive. I have observed far more incidents of road rage, cutting-off, brake-checking and...
My hypothesis based on driving in both countries is that driving in the US is far more aggressive and competitive. I have observed far more incidents of road rage, cutting-off, brake-checking and general hyper-competitveness in the Northeast of the US and the West Coast cities and freeway system than I have in any part of Canada.
I don't know if this is because of regulation differences (speed cameras, drug and alcohol testing) or cultural differences, but I think what's 'normal' on the US roads I've driven would have me pulled over in a second in my home country.
It's worth noting that my home country would feel like a crazy surveillance state to US drivers because of our focus on staying to the speed limit, punitive fines, and dedicated resources to road policing. But I've also never had anyone follow me for a scary amount of time because of an accidental cut-off or I was in the wrong lane and had to move over, which has happened in the US, so my theory is driving culture plays a big role.
Wish we had a couple more pieces of data. Maybe something to indicate whether there’s increased flouting of the road rules, more aggressive driver behavior. It had prevalence of speeding show no...
Wish we had a couple more pieces of data. Maybe something to indicate whether there’s increased flouting of the road rules, more aggressive driver behavior.
It had prevalence of speeding show no increase, but what about magnitudes of speeding? Or numbers on red lights being ran?
I saw a video recently of an intersection with unbelievable numbers of cars just running the light. lets see if i can find it
From the article:
...
...
...
...
...
...
...
Are these (and other sedans and compact cars) being built the same as they have in the past, though? one could easily see other classes of vehicle still being influenced by the US SUV trend and changing in size or shape (or some other way that affects visibility and/or lethality in the case of a pedestrian crash) over the years.
I can't comment on hood height, but I've driven a lot of fleet cars across a few different countries, so can comment generally, and as a Car Person:
the current generation Civic is as big as previous gen Accords (Edit: see below, not true. My mistake.)
the current generation Corolla is far bigger than previous generations. Owned several, drive a family member's new one frequently. This trend is observable across the small car market (Mazda 3, Impreza, Hyundai i30, even luxury compacts like the BMW 1 Series and Mercedes A class)
The 'cross' version of compact cars sell far better than the regular 'city' versions of the car. For example, the Corolla Cross, a lifted Corolla, has months or years long wait times in many markets. Same with the Subaru Crosstrek, which is a lifted version of the Impreza, the Mazda CX-30, a lifted version of the Mazda 3, etc. So even cars in the 'compact' section with higher ride heights and hood heights are selling better.
The current generation Accord and Camry have more mass (kerb weight), and have lengthened and widened compared to previous iterations over the last 15 years. The hood height is roughly the same. But my hypothesis would be that mass is still lethal when it's a kinetic energy transfer to a human body.
But, at the same time, stopping time has decreased for all the cars mentioned, with improvements to braking technology and auto-brake coming standard for many models if a pedestrian is detected, so it's not like Honda or Toyota are intentionally building death machines.
I think a very large factor (from anecdotal observation) is that the European and Japanese markets have sub-compact models available (Toyota Yaris, Kia Picanto, VW Polo, Honda Fit, Mazda 2), only some of which are available in the US. And again, anecdotally, I do not see them when I visit the US nearly as frequently as I see them in other countries I go.
Very very anecdotally, with a sample size of just me, I got given a sub-compact Nissan Versa after a hire-car company in the Northeast United States messed up and ran out of sedans. I had to take it due to time and felt very vulnerable on freeways given the ride height and the mass of the SUVs and trucks surrounding me.
I don't think I'd be comfortable purchasing sub-compact in the United States as I'd be almost guaranteed to come off worse in an accident, even though it's the car that best suits my needs, has the lowest cost to maintain, and the lowest costs to run.
As a Car Person, I have noticed, anecdotally, that speeding and drink driving are much more normalised in the US than anywhere else I've driven. This may just be the parts of the US I've driven, but most of the places where I am a Car Person have automated speed cameras, hidden-and-moveable speed-cameras, point-to-point average speed cameras, random drug and alcohol testing (especially during sporting events or celebrations), and more dicencentives to driving like a crazy person.
I can imagine that habits built up on freeways transfer into cities - I have observed close friends who are otherwise sane people doing outrageously dangerous things in urban driving and getting frustrated when friends/family 'aren't fast enough' or 'let that guy in'. And these are nice, normal, people, who suddenly see red and start to road rage as soon as they're behind the wheel. In my experience driving in the US is much more stressful, regardless of road type, which may lead to poorer decision making, and greater distraction.
The current (11th) gen is no bigger than the 10th gen (which I own), and has been mostly static for at least a decade. It also has a lower roof line than the Fit, which is by all measures a compact hatchback, and a bumper/hood height typical of sedans for the past twenty years. The Camry has similarly been mostly unchanged in footprint for the past twenty five years.
Civic 11: 179.1L x 70.9W x 55.5H (inches)
Civic 10: 179.4L x 70.8W x 56.5H
Civic 8: 168L x 69W x 57H
Civic 7: 168.4L x 67.7W x 58.7H
The seventh generation was introduced in 2000. The Civic's footprint and curb weight (approx 3000lb) have been almost identical for a quarter of a century, and squarely in the traditional compact sedan category. (Yes, the early 90s ones were smaller, closer in line with the Fit. But that's stretching it in terms of relevance.)
Overall average vehicle sizes, in ownership terms, have increased rapidly due to the prevalence of SUVs and pickup trucks, but the sedans still standing have not had radical changes to their dimensions in a very long time.
Edit: You can go all the way back to 1998 for an Accord if you want, and get a much lengthier 188.8L x 70.3W x 56.9H. Length is the primary differentiator in compact vs midsize sedans.
Damn, thanks for the correction.
I could have sworn that the four-door Civics have been getting bigger. After searching, I think I accidentally compared a previous gen four-door hatch version to the current gen sedan version. I thought they'd discontinued the four-door hatch.
Thanks for setting me straight.
I compared hatches across the board, because I'm a fan of hatchbacks, and they're what I personally observe the most of when I notice Civics in the wild. They kind of change which trim levels it's offered at for some years...like I think you can't currently get the SI as a hatchback unlike in previous years, but you can for every other trim. (I currently drive a previous generation ST hatch.)
Japanese cars are also heavily constrained by the Japanese government's tax policies as well, so there isn't a lot of variance. You pay a lot more to register larger vehicles, so there's pressure to keep them in certain brackets. That's semi-famously why the Fit was introduced: the Civic just slightly tipped outside of a weight or dimensional limit, and they wanted to make sure they had an offering that would have a lower tax rate. (Then you have the kei class with engine displacements measured in cc.)
Interesting that in the graphic comparing different countries, two other countries have an uptick starting at 2021. However, due to that graphic's design, it is nearly impossible to tell which country.
I wonder if this is more due to the fact that kids are less seen around on the streets unaccompanied as often as they used to be. Are kids being hit less because they are outside less?
Great article. Well thought out analysis with lots of supporting data. Thanks for posting.
Seems like a complex problem overall. I liked some of the comments on the site as well. Aside from the "Big SUV" and drug use assertions supported by the data, I think the lower visibility due to focus on car occupant safety seems like the most interesting avenue to look into further. From just a quick google, it seems there are some quantitative studies showing increases in blind spots in newer cars, but I didn't find studies specifically correlating this with fatalities. I also thought the distracted pedestrian angle might be interesting too, but I'm having a hard time coming up with a reason why that might affect the US and not other countries. It's just anecdotal, but from what I've observed while traveling, people in European cities seemed to use their phones while walking just as often as in the US.
And it gives me scary victim blaming vibes.
If we were talking about an individual case I'd want to be more human about it, but I'm not sure it's appropriate to apply the "victim blaming" label to these kinds of analyses at the population level. Given that the majority of pedestrian deaths are associated with " jaywalking, failing to properly yield, or improperly in the road" with the percentage increasing over time, I think it's appropriate to explore what's going on with pedestrian behavior. Plus, there are some studies that correlate pedestrian phone use with increased accident risk. I'm just saying that I haven't see enough data to show whether it's one of the more significant contributing factors to the recent increase in pedestrians killed by cars.
You would think Canada would track the US quite closely here, given that we drive mostly the same vehicles. Maybe there is more than 'big SUV/truck' at play?
Bare minimum, lots of the USA allows right turn on red. Poorly designed and marked crosswalks. Poor to 0 sidewalks everywhere. A hyperfocus on individuality to the point empathy is considered a bad thing by a very large minority.
Laws in general always putting cars first, and victim blaming pedestrians and cyclists.
Same with Canada
My hypothesis based on driving in both countries is that driving in the US is far more aggressive and competitive. I have observed far more incidents of road rage, cutting-off, brake-checking and general hyper-competitveness in the Northeast of the US and the West Coast cities and freeway system than I have in any part of Canada.
I don't know if this is because of regulation differences (speed cameras, drug and alcohol testing) or cultural differences, but I think what's 'normal' on the US roads I've driven would have me pulled over in a second in my home country.
It's worth noting that my home country would feel like a crazy surveillance state to US drivers because of our focus on staying to the speed limit, punitive fines, and dedicated resources to road policing. But I've also never had anyone follow me for a scary amount of time because of an accidental cut-off or I was in the wrong lane and had to move over, which has happened in the US, so my theory is driving culture plays a big role.
Wish we had a couple more pieces of data. Maybe something to indicate whether there’s increased flouting of the road rules, more aggressive driver behavior.
It had prevalence of speeding show no increase, but what about magnitudes of speeding? Or numbers on red lights being ran?
I saw a video recently of an intersection with unbelievable numbers of cars just running the light. lets see if i can find it