thearctic's recent activity

  1. Comment on Iran’s supreme leader signals harsher crackdown as protest movement swells in ~society

    thearctic
    (edited )
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    CBS is reporting a possible death toll between 12,000 and 20,000. It seems equally possible to me that this claim is completely true or that it's manufactured to sell a regime-change war, which is...

    CBS is reporting a possible death toll between 12,000 and 20,000. It seems equally possible to me that this claim is completely true or that it's manufactured to sell a regime-change war, which is a horrifying state of affairs.

    Edit: for the sake of completeness, I should note that Reuters, BBC, and AP News are all reporting the figure of "over 2000" deaths.

    2 votes

  2. Comment on ‘Sell America’ returns to Wall Street after Donald Trump ups the ante against Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve in ~society

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    Personally, I think it's that Trump is surrounded around another level of yes-men compared to his first term. Everyone in the second admin got the memo from seeing the first admin that you have to...

    Personally, I think it's that Trump is surrounded around another level of yes-men compared to his first term. Everyone in the second admin got the memo from seeing the first admin that you have to really suck up to him to keep your job. That means that he's getting not only no pushback, but active praise, for his increasingly unhinged ideas.

    10 votes

  3. Concerning YouTube short I came across

    ~society Text 128 words
    Short in question This short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike...

    Short in question

    This short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike older AI videos, virtually nobody in the comments realizes. With how good AI is getting, we'll very probably have actual riots and political conflict breaking out over AI hoaxes and AI-fueled sentiment campaigns (if the WhatsApp lynchings in 2017-2018 are any measure of how bad social media hoaxes can get). On the other side, citizen journalism of atrocities may come to be worthless and easily dismissed as AI. Humanity is cooked, as the kids say.

    (Reposted as a text post and with a better title. Previous comments can be viewed here)

    12 votes

  4. Comment on ‘Sell America’ returns to Wall Street after Donald Trump ups the ante against Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve in ~society

    thearctic
    Link
    Interestingly, the SP500/NASDAQ hasn't really dropped, suggesting that the market has already priced in these shenanigans (assuming the market is currently rational).

    Interestingly, the SP500/NASDAQ hasn't really dropped, suggesting that the market has already priced in these shenanigans (assuming the market is currently rational).

    6 votes

  5. Comment on We are officially cooked in ~society

    thearctic
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    This short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike older AI videos,...

    This short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike older AI videos, virtually nobody in the comments realizes. With how good AI is getting, we'll very probably have actual riots and political conflict breaking out over AI hoaxes and AI-fueled sentiment campaigns (if the WhatsApp lynchings in 2017 are any measure of the lengths people will go). On the other side, citizen journalism of atrocities may come to be worthless and easily dismissed as AI. Society is cooked, as the kids say.

    3 votes

  6. Comment on In most countries, imports from China account for less than 10% of GDP, even where China is the top partner in ~finance

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    That economic interdependence is also what disincentivizes countries from blowing each other up.

    That economic interdependence is also what disincentivizes countries from blowing each other up.

    5 votes

  7. Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    This article describes the relationship between military dominance and reserve currency status. Historically, pressuring or incentivizing nations to price their commodity exports in dollars either...

    This article describes the relationship between military dominance and reserve currency status.

    Historically, pressuring or incentivizing nations to price their commodity exports in dollars either economically or through security ties (ie. the petrodollar) played an instrumental role in increasing demand for the dollar. There are also network effects that make it harder to move away from the dollar once it's reached a critical mass of acceptance globally.

    Canada and the EU can't "agree" to trade in euros without strict capital controls, since it's up to individual businesses and investors. It could set up stronger bilateral trade agreements or disincentivize trade with the US to partially reduce dollar dependence, but there's an inherent cost to doing so and it would invite economic backlash from the US.

    The fundamental problem with the EU putting up a united front against US dysfunction and bullying, either economically or militarily, is that the EU is a voluntary union of sovereign states whose future is always uncertain. This political risk is a large reason why the euro is not a great contender for being the global reserve currency and why the EU isn't able to project power the same way the US, China, or even Russia are able to.

    3 votes

  8. Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    I'd say America is "crashing out" more or less. Its status as the global hegemon and as the global reserve currency was never going to last forever, and it hasn't done itself any favors on those...

    I'd say America is "crashing out" more or less. Its status as the global hegemon and as the global reserve currency was never going to last forever, and it hasn't done itself any favors on those fronts over the last 10 years. But might makes right and, in theory, if America were dominant enough it could compel the world onto dollars a bit longer. That'll almost definitely fail, but the US I think will attempt it.

    5 votes

  9. Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    Western Europe does need to show some backbone. Not even that much. Just enough to show that things would get ugly for everyone to do something as insane as invading Greenland.

    Western Europe does need to show some backbone. Not even that much. Just enough to show that things would get ugly for everyone to do something as insane as invading Greenland.

    22 votes

  10. Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society

    thearctic
    (edited )
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    Unfortunately, I think the US will have Greenland if it seriously pushes for it. It's hard for me to imagine Western Europe going to war or even skirmishing over it. Personally, I think this is...

    Trump repeated over the weekend that the US "needed" Greenland for security reasons, prompting Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to warn that any attack by the US would spell the end of Nato.

    The White House said on Tuesday: "The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the Commander-in-Chief's disposal."

    Unfortunately, I think the US will have Greenland if it seriously pushes for it. It's hard for me to imagine Western Europe going to war or even skirmishing over it. Personally, I think this is largely downstream of the national debt (taking a more domineering role on the world stage to try to prop up the dollar as the reserve currency, physically expanding to make more room for GDP growth beyond what would be possible otherwise).

    11 votes

  12. Comment on Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Nicolas Maduro's capture in ~society

    thearctic
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    With the ability to bet on virtually anything and everything, you make it very easy for people with insider political knowledge to get very very rich. This is a very dishonorable and problematic...

    An unknown trader has raked in a profit worth about $410,000 after betting that Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro would be ousted from his position.

    The trader's account on Polymarket, opens new tab built up positions in contracts tied to Maduro's removal on terms that implied long odds before the weekend raid. Those wagers, which were worth about $34,000 prior to Maduro's capture, surged in value after news of the U.S. military operation on the Venezuelan leader emerged, Polymarket data shows.

    With the ability to bet on virtually anything and everything, you make it very easy for people with insider political knowledge to get very very rich. This is a very dishonorable and problematic way to make money, but the libertarian in me wants to play devil's advocate and say that, in a strange way, this is essentially a whistleblower's bounty in service of the public. If we say that secrecy is in general a bad, especially in powerful and basically unaccountable institutions, then it may be considered a good to allow for this information to indirectly trickle out through betting markets. On the other hand, does it incentivize these institutions to take more unpredictable actions, simply because they are unpredictable, to be able to make huge returns through insider knowledge?

    18 votes

  15. Comment on Has anyone else intentionally lowered their phone's screen's saturation? in ~tech

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    I also do a full grayscale. I need to turn it off occasionally for functionality, but I think it's effective at making me less likely to use my phone and for less time.

    I also do a full grayscale. I need to turn it off occasionally for functionality, but I think it's effective at making me less likely to use my phone and for less time.

    1 vote

  16. Comment on US strikes Venezuela and says its leader, Nicolas Maduro, has been captured and flown out of the country in ~society

    thearctic
    (edited )
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    Morality aside, this is a profound miscalculation from the US. Though most of Latin America sees itself as more culturally and geopolitically aligned with the US than China or Russia, the brazen...

    Morality aside, this is a profound miscalculation from the US. Though most of Latin America sees itself as more culturally and geopolitically aligned with the US than China or Russia, the brazen disregard for truth, international law, and due process that America has demonstrated with Venezuela (combined with their already problematic history in Latin America and, more recently, in the Middle East) will scare virtually all of these countries into considering armament or diversification of security relations. To me, the beginning of the end of Monroe doctrine is all but a forgone conclusion.

    Edit: to add, I think if the US followed due process and was honest about their intentions, it may have been able to get away with this. But with the way they did it, and especially if instability breaks out in Venezuela, it'll hurt them strategically much more than it'll help.

    29 votes

  17. Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    She's a bad communicator and often communicates in a way that suggests that she hasn't the slightest clue what she's talking about (ex. her trying to explain the Russia Ukraine conflict). Maybe...

    She's a bad communicator and often communicates in a way that suggests that she hasn't the slightest clue what she's talking about (ex. her trying to explain the Russia Ukraine conflict). Maybe she's really that clueless or maybe she really knows her stuff and is really bad at showing it. In either scenario, it goes without saying, that you need to be a good communicator to do well in politics, whether that's through pathos (ie. like Trump) or logos (ie. like Nixon) or both (ie. like Obama).

    Confusing the cause of her defeat with being fundamentally sexism or racism is wrong and probably dangerous (leading the Democratic establishment to abandon merit in the opposite direction, pushing them to nominate a generic white dude if and when a minority is more qualified and electable). Ultimately, you need to be able to excite people to win the election, and Harris did not have the political talent to do so. You also can't discount that being a candidate who would make history as the first woman president will motivate a lot of people to vote.

    2 votes

  18. Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    I definitely stand by the charge that she's inarticulate (pardon the snark in the video). Again, you could argue she's no worse than Trump, Biden, or Bush Jr, but that's a depressingly low bar to...

    I definitely stand by the charge that she's inarticulate (pardon the snark in the video). Again, you could argue she's no worse than Trump, Biden, or Bush Jr, but that's a depressingly low bar to set. There are plenty of articulate black women in American politics, and Kamala Harris isn't one of them.

    2 votes

  19. Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society

    thearctic
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    Him being an atheist, I agree, is probably his greatest hurdle. Though, we've had a few skeptic presidents already (looking at you, Jefferson and Lincoln). I think an "agnostic who doesn't deny...

    Him being an atheist, I agree, is probably his greatest hurdle. Though, we've had a few skeptic presidents already (looking at you, Jefferson and Lincoln). I think an "agnostic who doesn't deny God and wants to believe in him" could potentially squeak through.

    1 vote

  20. Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society

    thearctic
    Link Parent
    Not discounting your experience at all, but Stewart didn't talk about it in a xenophobic way at all or with intent to stoke anti-Asian sentiment. Especially because there wound up being scientific...

    Not discounting your experience at all, but Stewart didn't talk about it in a xenophobic way at all or with intent to stoke anti-Asian sentiment. Especially because there wound up being scientific merit to the theory, true or not, the people who actually committed the act or stoked anti Asian sentiment should be held accountable.

    7 votes