thearctic's recent activity
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Comment on Not so empty nesters: record-high number of US adults under 35 live at home, new data says in ~life
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Comment on Not so empty nesters: record-high number of US adults under 35 live at home, new data says in ~life
thearctic Link ParentTomato tomata, I'd consider that stable. In any case, I don't think that can explain the 5-6% year-over-year increase in rents.Tomato tomata, I'd consider that stable. In any case, I don't think that can explain the 5-6% year-over-year increase in rents.
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Comment on How much of an echo chamber is Reddit/the internet, really? in ~tech
thearctic Link ParentIt's easy to identify anyone abusing the noise tag, so I assume it won't be a problem aside from a few one off cases.It's easy to identify anyone abusing the noise tag, so I assume it won't be a problem aside from a few one off cases.
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Comment on How much of an echo chamber is Reddit/the internet, really? in ~tech
thearctic LinkA huge part of reddit's hive mind I think comes from its downvote function. If you have a genuine, respectful perspective that cuts against the grain, you'll get downvoted into oblivion. Nobody...A huge part of reddit's hive mind I think comes from its downvote function. If you have a genuine, respectful perspective that cuts against the grain, you'll get downvoted into oblivion. Nobody wants that to happen, so everything converges to the median opinion which itself becomes a more extreme version of itself with groupthink. With reddit becoming "mainstream" (adding in a lot of design elements to not make it "boring"), it also attracts a different crowd and aims to activate your lizard brain more, so to speak, than it used to.
Also, reddit's been psyop'd and guerrilla marketed to hell at this point and I have a hard time taking anything that reddit says as representing anything real.
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Comment on Not so empty nesters: record-high number of US adults under 35 live at home, new data says in ~life
thearctic Link ParentFrom my understanding, Chicago's population has been relatively stable but rent has gone up a lot.From my understanding, Chicago's population has been relatively stable but rent has gone up a lot.
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Comment on Not so empty nesters: record-high number of US adults under 35 live at home, new data says in ~life
thearctic (edited )Link ParentI think they're saying that when there are too few buyers in the market, sellers don't attempt to sell to avoid creating a record of going on and off the market. So, when the number of buyers...I think they're saying that when there are too few buyers in the market, sellers don't attempt to sell to avoid creating a record of going on and off the market. So, when the number of buyers falls below a certain threshold, things grind to a halt and supply falls. Though, that's somewhat unconvincing to me. It would be more accurate I think to say that the less buyers there are in the market, the harder it is to justify new development. But, honestly, I think the supply shortage narrative, in places where population has been relatively stable, is way overstated. We operate on the principle that housing should be one of the primary ways to build wealth. There's no way to have this without ratcheting up the cost of housing. It's necessarily one or the other.
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Comment on Britain and Canada join Australia in banning social media for children under 16 in ~tech
thearctic LinkI think any of these age-verification schemes around content on the internet should only be targeted toward monetized ventures. That way, you make it impossible to legally make money selling...I think any of these age-verification schemes around content on the internet should only be targeted toward monetized ventures. That way, you make it impossible to legally make money selling social media/porn to minors, without creating mechanisms that can be abused to control speech and expression since people can always put something out for free if it's important enough.
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Comment on Sweden has halved its borrowing since facing financial meltdown in the 1990s, without raising taxes – and what Britain can learn from this experience in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentOnly because the military is much stronger than them. Not to be glib, but energy is the primary constraint of everything. Yes, there are material constraints, but your capacity to recycle and...Like, Raytheon can't threaten violence just because they put Tomahawk missiles together.
Only because the military is much stronger than them.
I can sort of guess at what you mean, but I don't fully get why electricity would be the main constraint.
Not to be glib, but energy is the primary constraint of everything. Yes, there are material constraints, but your capacity to recycle and reuse materials shoots up if you have access to virtually unlimited energy. Energy itself can also be weaponized, and the capacity to extract materials is itself energy constrained.
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Comment on Sweden has halved its borrowing since facing financial meltdown in the 1990s, without raising taxes – and what Britain can learn from this experience in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentIs it? And, are they? SpaceX can always lobby their way to getting what they want, if they have more money than god. Even in an alternate reality where we had strict campaign finance reform, there...but it's still subject to the laws of the United States, which are more or less democratically determined.
Is it? And, are they? SpaceX can always lobby their way to getting what they want, if they have more money than god. Even in an alternate reality where we had strict campaign finance reform, there would always be the risk of backroom deals in proportion to the money they hold. If SpaceX ever decided to get into weapons manufacturing, then they'd also have leverage from the threat of violence, whether or not they ever explicitly made such a threat. They are already starting to become a critical part of the US's defense architecture, which makes it much harder to regulate them. If they lobbied to create their own colony on the moon some day, à la the East India Company, they'd effectively constitute a nation in their own right. Government can only function by maintaining its monopoly on violence. The extent to which it loses its monopoly on violence is the extent to which it simply does not govern, for better or worse.
In a world without virtually infinite energy, there would always be a way to "starve out" these sort of phenomena. Otherwise, like a cancer, it will grow and metastasize, eventually destroying the body.
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Comment on Sweden has halved its borrowing since facing financial meltdown in the 1990s, without raising taxes – and what Britain can learn from this experience in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentIt's unsurprising that austerity causes a slow down in economic growth. Either increasing spending or reducing taxes alone are both forms of fiscal stimulus, and countries that do one or both will...It's unsurprising that austerity causes a slow down in economic growth. Either increasing spending or reducing taxes alone are both forms of fiscal stimulus, and countries that do one or both will see economic acceleration. But it comes at a substantial long term cost when you already have a lot of debt. That's not to say that there's no room for deficits, but deficit spending is only viable when you have already "saved up" for it through prior fiscal responsibility. The reality is, austerity does work in the long run when you don't have the same room for economic growth that most developing countries do, and Germany and Sweden are two strong examples of that.
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Comment on Sweden has halved its borrowing since facing financial meltdown in the 1990s, without raising taxes – and what Britain can learn from this experience in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentThere's no good way out of a financial crisis. The best way to approach a financial crisis is to not have one, through regulation and financial integrity (see: Canada's policies leading up to 2008...There's no good way out of a financial crisis. The best way to approach a financial crisis is to not have one, through regulation and financial integrity (see: Canada's policies leading up to 2008 and being relatively unscathed afterwards).
Easy money also interacts in strange ways with inequality. You can expand the money supply with weaker inflationary effects when you have high inequality. Looking at the explosion of GDP per capita in a lot of Western countries since Covid, it does not at all represent an increase in quality of life.
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Comment on Sweden has halved its borrowing since facing financial meltdown in the 1990s, without raising taxes – and what Britain can learn from this experience in ~finance
thearctic (edited )Link ParentI think there can be an ideal world where there is only a small amount of necessary inequality that serves to reward hard work and applying ingenuity to create something that people really value....I think there can be an ideal world where there is only a small amount of necessary inequality that serves to reward hard work and applying ingenuity to create something that people really value. My thinking has converged onto a perhaps unorthodox blend of progressivism and conservatism. Progressive in the distribution of resources and conservative in accepting the necessity of struggle. Which, I guess, is basically hippie crunchy progressivism as opposed to modernist progressivism.
I also really do think that the pursuit of virtually infinite energy especially will inevitably undermine democracy. Democracy is the pooling of power that is then used according to the will of a constituency. If there are no physical limits on the ambition of various organizations, corporations, or nations, then how can democracy exert its will over these parties? We need to be more parsimonious globally about the introduction of new energy sources, so that it's always subject to democratic control.
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Comment on Sweden has halved its borrowing since facing financial meltdown in the 1990s, without raising taxes – and what Britain can learn from this experience in ~finance
thearctic (edited )LinkThe only honest way to turn yourself around financially as a developed country is going to be austerity of some form or another. Easy money policy creates inequality and delays necessary political...The only honest way to turn yourself around financially as a developed country is going to be austerity of some form or another. Easy money policy creates inequality and delays necessary political debates about how to distribute finite economic resources and how to distribute the power of economic decision making in society. High public debt also corners policy making into a situation where the economy must grow infinitely, which cannot go on forever because nothing can grow infinitely; it also limits the ability of a society to decide they want some level of scarcity. Personally, I don't want to someday raise kids in a world where everything is basically free and where they don't have to struggle. It's perfectly possible to reduce inequality and guarantee opportunity to everyone without going full post-scarcity, and I think that's an outcome a lot of people subconsciously want but are unwilling or unable to express since it's anathema to do anything but deliver value to shareholders.
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Comment on Elon Musk net worth estimated at $1.1 trillion in ~finance
thearctic LinkOne of the great failures of human economic thinking is failing to appreciate the concept of liquidity. Unfortunately, having large amounts of illiquid and questionably-valued wealth confers real...One of the great failures of human economic thinking is failing to appreciate the concept of liquidity. Unfortunately, having large amounts of illiquid and questionably-valued wealth confers real benefits that make it easier to amass more wealth.
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Comment on Not alive, but not dead: disembodied human brains used for drug testing in ~health
thearctic Link ParentYou make reasonable, but strong and unfalsifiable claims about the nature of consciousness. The fact that they are under anesthetic eases me the most with respect to the experience of these...You make reasonable, but strong and unfalsifiable claims about the nature of consciousness. The fact that they are under anesthetic eases me the most with respect to the experience of these brains. Though, it's mentioned that:
Car adds that because the brains lack electrical activity, they may not indicate whether a drug will cause seizures, although the company plans to eventually remove the anesthesia from some brain slices
which is quite concerning, beyond the general ethical concern of consent and respect of the donor's body.
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Comment on Not alive, but not dead: disembodied human brains used for drug testing in ~health
thearctic LinkWhen doing ethically sketchy research, it should be demonstrated that there exists no alternative way to progress the literature. Of course, you could narrowly define the research objective such...When doing ethically sketchy research, it should be demonstrated that there exists no alternative way to progress the literature. Of course, you could narrowly define the research objective such that this always holds (ex. "to understand the effects of xyz drug on non-living human brains"), but if it cannot be shown to hold for a worthwhile research objective (ex. "to identify an effective drug to treat Alzheimers"), then it should not be approved.
I'm skeptical that this research is even necessary, since if it is sufficiently promising in animals brains and in animal trails it should be promising enough for a human clinical trial. One could say that human brains are substantially different from those of complex and relatively smart mammals like pigs, but you're still so far from replicating the real-life physiology of a human brain here that I'm pretty unconvinced that the gains are worth the moral risks. And, of course, if you were somehow successful in replicating the real-life physiology of a human brain, you definitely should not be doing this research.
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Comment on Earth’s east–west albedo symmetry in ~science
thearctic Link ParentYour argument makes sense to me. I don't know much about geophysics so I won't wade too deep into the paper, but they say the longitude where there's East-West symmetry in albido stayed within the...Your argument makes sense to me. I don't know much about geophysics so I won't wade too deep into the paper, but they say the longitude where there's East-West symmetry in albido stayed within the range of 20 and 30 degrees with it oscillating around 27. That such a longitude exists at a fixed point in time is almost trivial as you point out, but that it remains relatively stable over time is probably more interesting.
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Comment on Summer blanket recommendations? in ~life.style
thearctic Link ParentI'm thinking I might try out the wool duvet. What GSM do you think is good for the summer?I'm thinking I might try out the wool duvet. What GSM do you think is good for the summer?
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Summer blanket recommendations?
A problem I have every summer is either going to sleep cool and waking up in the middle of the night hot or going to sleep warm and waking up in the middle of the night cold. I used to have a...
A problem I have every summer is either going to sleep cool and waking up in the middle of the night hot or going to sleep warm and waking up in the middle of the night cold. I used to have a similar problem in the winter, but I was able to solve that by getting a down comforter. Any recommendations for a good summer blanket for midwestern summers?
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Comment on Fight against escalating gang crime sees Sweden vote on plans to hold thirteen-year-olds criminally responsible – other European nations are also lowering age limits in ~society
thearctic LinkIt seems reasonable to me that there should be consequences starting from a pretty young age, but the consequences should be proportional to psychological development and convicted minors should...It seems reasonable to me that there should be consequences starting from a pretty young age, but the consequences should be proportional to psychological development and convicted minors should be managed by a different system. The problem in Sweden, as it appears to me, isn't really about whether children are responsible for the crimes they commit. It's about closing a loophole that's been exploited by organized crime. While it makes sense in general to talk about the socioeconomic drivers of violent crime, organized crime is a different beast that, when it reaches a certain critical mass of sophistication and scale, operates on its own logic. But, I don't live in Europe so that's just my 2c.
That's true, but there's of course been some development in Chicago from 2010-2020. The Chicago suburbs, where most of the population growth is, are also fairly YIMBY. So, I'm not convinced that a change in the ratio of supply to demand has been the primary driver of increasing housing costs.