thearctic's recent activity
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Comment on The Young Veins - Heart of Mine (2010) in ~music
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The Young Veins - Heart of Mine (2010)
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Comment on George R.R. Martin says 'The Winds of Winter' is 'the curse of my life' in ~books
thearctic LinkAt some level, I get not having the energy to finish the series. But working on other projects in the same universe is crazy to me.At some level, I get not having the energy to finish the series. But working on other projects in the same universe is crazy to me.
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Comment on Why US President Donald Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) in ~society
thearctic Link ParentTaxes play a significant role in progressive economic outcomes, but are definitely not the only major factor. Ex. tax progressivity between the US and Canada is comparable, but inequality is not....Taxes play a significant role in progressive economic outcomes, but are definitely not the only major factor. Ex. tax progressivity between the US and Canada is comparable, but inequality is not. To reduce inequality, you also need to worry about the economic structure, rent seeking, elite capture, supporting domestic competition such that firms compete away profits, minimum wage, and labor rights.
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Comment on Why do domestic prices rise with tariffs? in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentSure, technology played a role, but the point can be illustrated by comparing American and European industry over that time period.Sure, technology played a role, but the point can be illustrated by comparing American and European industry over that time period.
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Comment on Why do domestic prices rise with tariffs? in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentI interpreted the formula has Trump wanting to hit China with a disproportionate tariff while making it seem objective and non-escalatory. That is, they decided where they wanted the tariff rate...I interpreted the formula has Trump wanting to hit China with a disproportionate tariff while making it seem objective and non-escalatory. That is, they decided where they wanted the tariff rate to be and retroactively found a formula that roughly fit that for America's largest trading partners. Though, maybe I'm giving them way too much credit?
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Comment on Why US President Donald Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) in ~society
thearctic Link ParentMuch of inequality is a function of the economic structure that Reagan and Clinton-era free trade has created. I think we could do a lot more on the taxation side to level the playing field, which...Much of inequality is a function of the economic structure that Reagan and Clinton-era free trade has created. I think we could do a lot more on the taxation side to level the playing field, which of course the administration has no interest in doing, but it can't be ignored that de-industrialization has largely contributed to the hollowing out of the working class.
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Comment on Why US President Donald Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) in ~society
thearctic (edited )Link ParentWe've had substantial growth-mediated containment of inflation. But the US can't grow its economy infinitely, so it cannot realistically grow itself out of the crisis. Adjusting interest rates...We've had substantial growth-mediated containment of inflation. But the US can't grow its economy infinitely, so it cannot realistically grow itself out of the crisis.
Adjusting interest rates will adjust the velocity of money, which indeed would not be an effective tool in the conditions that would create a stagflation environment. If we substantially increase domestic manufacturing, we could avoid much of the worst of stagflation (that we'll likely see in some form or the other regardless of trade policy), especially since we won't have to worry about energy imports nearly as much as we did in the 70s.
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Comment on Why do domestic prices rise with tariffs? in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentPart of their plan is to use tariffs as a negotiating tool, so I suppose we'll see how successful that is and how much of that will backfire. Though even in intermediary goods, to some extent...Part of their plan is to use tariffs as a negotiating tool, so I suppose we'll see how successful that is and how much of that will backfire. Though even in intermediary goods, to some extent we're capable of producing much more than we currently do. The start-up time will be significant, and the level of broad tariffs from the administration I agree are definitely not tenable in the short or medium term if this is not just for negotiation.
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Comment on Why US President Donald Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture) in ~society
thearctic (edited )LinkI think this video did a good job describing the merits and likely potential failures of Trump's trade policy. On a related note, the US needs to build a more independent economy, some way or...I think this video did a good job describing the merits and likely potential failures of Trump's trade policy.
On a related note, the US needs to build a more independent economy, some way or another. Given the fiscal crisis we're in, it's a virtual certainty that America will see sustained high levels of inflation. The two most important things to focus on will be ensuring that American wages and wealth keep up with this inevitable inflation and that American bonds remain a desirable option to buyers. I deeply disagree with the tax cut insanity that has contributed to this crisis, but the merits of Trump's tariff policy, at least directionally speaking, I don't think should be scoffed at.
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Why US President Donald Trump's tariff chaos actually makes sense (big picture)
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Comment on Why do domestic prices rise with tariffs? in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentI think their analysis dramatically underestimates how low our industrial capacity is relative the resources we have at hand. Also, you can't say that tariffs do not increase domestic production...I think their analysis dramatically underestimates how low our industrial capacity is relative the resources we have at hand. Also, you can't say that tariffs do not increase domestic production as if it's a law of economics (for one, much of the 19th/early 20th century would disagree with you). Tariffs in the short to medium term increase domestic production if the tariff is sufficient to make domestic products cheaper, and tariffs increase production in the long run if it's sufficient to make the large capital expenditures needed for competitive domestic manufacturing less risky. At the geopolitical level, it would also have the nice side effect of America having the incentive to push for free and fair labor across the developing world. Ultimately, I don't mind the direction the administration is taking with tariffs, but the devil will be in the details of their plan.
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Comment on What is the optimal way to convert an RPG book to a text format? in ~tech
thearctic Link"Calibre" is what you're looking for, though you might have to play around with different settings and formats to get things to look right."Calibre" is what you're looking for, though you might have to play around with different settings and formats to get things to look right.
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Comment on Religious switching into and out of Islam in ~humanities
thearctic (edited )Link ParentReminds me of a stat from a 2006 survey that 1 in 6 clergy in the Protestant Church of the Netherlands was agnostic or atheist. It's surprising to me that one would continue to be part of Church...Reminds me of a stat from a 2006 survey that 1 in 6 clergy in the Protestant Church of the Netherlands was agnostic or atheist. It's surprising to me that one would continue to be part of Church leadership after having lost faith.
On Islam, I think you'd be surprised that much of modern Islam is actually more conservative than in the classical period. Traditionally, Islam had a much more liberal attitude toward homosexuality than Christianity (it only comes up a couple times in the Quran and the prescribed punishment if two people are caught is confinement followed by forgiveness if they stop, while the implied punishment in the Bible is capital punishment). I attribute a lot of that to political instability and a post-colonial reactionary revivalism. Though even today, attitudes among American Muslims toward homosexuality are in line with Protestants in aggregate and even more accepting than White Evangelicals.
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Comment on What keeps you up at night? in ~talk
thearctic Link ParentBetter shoes may help. I actually had less foot pain when I went from highly padded sneakers to more minimalist shoes.Better shoes may help. I actually had less foot pain when I went from highly padded sneakers to more minimalist shoes.
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Comment on Virologists are still bringing dangerous, novel pathogens in from the wild in ~health
thearctic Link ParentI'm not necessarily arguing that we should categorically shut down this research, but we should have a strong and clear reason before deciding to fund these types of projects. Well, if we're doing...I'm not necessarily arguing that we should categorically shut down this research, but we should have a strong and clear reason before deciding to fund these types of projects.
If we weren't doing that research would we have been able to understand SARS-COV-2 as quickly, or would it actually compromise our safety not to be doing that?
Well, if we're doing counter-factuals, you can't ignore considering whether Covid-19 pandemic would ever have happened if we didn't do this research.
I get what you're saying, but ultimately it's a heuristic to say that it's better to not get in the way of science just because of risk. If it's true that it is, then the argument that the benefits outweigh the risks can and should be made on specific grounds.
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Comment on Virologists are still bringing dangerous, novel pathogens in from the wild in ~health
thearctic (edited )Link ParentTo clarify, we should accept it as true from the perspective of safety. As for studying novel pathogens outside of bats, I suppose the same principle but on a smaller scale also applies. Not...To clarify, we should accept it as true from the perspective of safety. As for studying novel pathogens outside of bats, I suppose the same principle but on a smaller scale also applies. Not everything that happens in the ecosystem is of significant biological interest to human medicine and, given the risk of studying pathogens in animals that humans minimally interact with, there's a question about whether we are getting our money's worth danger-wise. This is essentially the argument that respected people like Lipsitch have made. I'd prefer there be a clear articulation of the value of each of these projects to human medicine before funding them, versus assuming that everything we learn about the ecosystem will be significantly worthwhile and will override the risk of this type of research.
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Comment on Virologists are still bringing dangerous, novel pathogens in from the wild in ~health
thearctic Link ParentI'm all for better understanding the strange biology of bats, but that doesn't necessarily require seeking out novel viruses. As for the lab leak question, the bottom line is that it's a very...I'm all for better understanding the strange biology of bats, but that doesn't necessarily require seeking out novel viruses.
As for the lab leak question, the bottom line is that it's a very plausible theory and that, from a perspective of safety, it should be accepted as true and we should operate under its implications. What that means here precisely, I'm not completely sure, but the risks far outweigh the benefits of ignoring the lab leak theory.
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Comment on Virologists are still bringing dangerous, novel pathogens in from the wild in ~health
thearctic Link ParentIt may seem to make sense to want to document all strains of all viruses in the way that we want to document as much as we can about the animal kingdom, but bat guts are literally specially...It may seem to make sense to want to document all strains of all viruses in the way that we want to document as much as we can about the animal kingdom, but bat guts are literally specially designed to mutate new viruses. Which is to say, these novel viruses are not phylogenetically interesting and are not representative of the general ecosystem of viruses.
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Comment on Long-term experiences with Google search alternatives? in ~tech
thearctic Link ParentI really want to like DDG, but I find the Reddit results a bit worse than Google and for academic stuff it doesn't even come close.I really want to like DDG, but I find the Reddit results a bit worse than Google and for academic stuff it doesn't even come close.
I always liked the Pretty Odd the most out of Panic of the Disco's albums, but I never checked out The Young Veins after the split. Was surprised how much I liked this song and some other songs in their debut, and only, album.