thearctic's recent activity
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
thearctic Link ParentI'd say America is "crashing out" more or less. Its status as the global hegemon and as the global reserve currency was never going to last forever, and it hasn't done itself any favors on those...I'd say America is "crashing out" more or less. Its status as the global hegemon and as the global reserve currency was never going to last forever, and it hasn't done itself any favors on those fronts over the last 10 years. But might makes right and, in theory, if America were dominant enough it could compel the world onto dollars a bit longer. That'll almost definitely fail, but the US I think will attempt it.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
thearctic Link ParentWestern Europe does need to show some backbone. Not even that much. Just enough to show that things would get ugly for everyone to do something as insane as invading Greenland.Western Europe does need to show some backbone. Not even that much. Just enough to show that things would get ugly for everyone to do something as insane as invading Greenland.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
thearctic (edited )LinkUnfortunately, I think the US will have Greenland if it seriously pushes for it. It's hard for me to imagine Western Europe going to war or even skirmishing over it. Personally, I think this is...Trump repeated over the weekend that the US "needed" Greenland for security reasons, prompting Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to warn that any attack by the US would spell the end of Nato.
The White House said on Tuesday: "The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the Commander-in-Chief's disposal."
Unfortunately, I think the US will have Greenland if it seriously pushes for it. It's hard for me to imagine Western Europe going to war or even skirmishing over it. Personally, I think this is largely downstream of the national debt (taking a more domineering role on the world stage to try to prop up the dollar as the reserve currency, physically expanding to make more room for GDP growth beyond what would be possible otherwise).
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US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House
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Comment on Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Nicolas Maduro's capture in ~society
thearctic LinkWith the ability to bet on virtually anything and everything, you make it very easy for people with insider political knowledge to get very very rich. This is a very dishonorable and problematic...An unknown trader has raked in a profit worth about $410,000 after betting that Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro would be ousted from his position.
The trader's account on Polymarket, opens new tab built up positions in contracts tied to Maduro's removal on terms that implied long odds before the weekend raid. Those wagers, which were worth about $34,000 prior to Maduro's capture, surged in value after news of the U.S. military operation on the Venezuelan leader emerged, Polymarket data shows.
With the ability to bet on virtually anything and everything, you make it very easy for people with insider political knowledge to get very very rich. This is a very dishonorable and problematic way to make money, but the libertarian in me wants to play devil's advocate and say that, in a strange way, this is essentially a whistleblower's bounty in service of the public. If we say that secrecy is in general a bad, especially in powerful and basically unaccountable institutions, then it may be considered a good to allow for this information to indirectly trickle out through betting markets. On the other hand, does it incentivize these institutions to take more unpredictable actions, simply because they are unpredictable, to be able to make huge returns through insider knowledge?
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Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Nicolas Maduro's capture
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Have you ever had an oddly specific dream come true?
Just curious
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Comment on Has anyone else intentionally lowered their phone's screen's saturation? in ~tech
thearctic Link ParentI also do a full grayscale. I need to turn it off occasionally for functionality, but I think it's effective at making me less likely to use my phone and for less time.I also do a full grayscale. I need to turn it off occasionally for functionality, but I think it's effective at making me less likely to use my phone and for less time.
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Comment on US strikes Venezuela and says its leader, Nicolas Maduro, has been captured and flown out of the country in ~society
thearctic (edited )LinkMorality aside, this is a profound miscalculation from the US. Though most of Latin America sees itself as more culturally and geopolitically aligned with the US than China or Russia, the brazen...Morality aside, this is a profound miscalculation from the US. Though most of Latin America sees itself as more culturally and geopolitically aligned with the US than China or Russia, the brazen disregard for truth, international law, and due process that America has demonstrated with Venezuela (combined with their already problematic history in Latin America and, more recently, in the Middle East) will scare virtually all of these countries into considering armament or diversification of security relations. To me, the beginning of the end of Monroe doctrine is all but a forgone conclusion.
Edit: to add, I think if the US followed due process and was honest about their intentions, it may have been able to get away with this. But with the way they did it, and especially if instability breaks out in Venezuela, it'll hurt them strategically much more than it'll help.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentShe's a bad communicator and often communicates in a way that suggests that she hasn't the slightest clue what she's talking about (ex. her trying to explain the Russia Ukraine conflict). Maybe...She's a bad communicator and often communicates in a way that suggests that she hasn't the slightest clue what she's talking about (ex. her trying to explain the Russia Ukraine conflict). Maybe she's really that clueless or maybe she really knows her stuff and is really bad at showing it. In either scenario, it goes without saying, that you need to be a good communicator to do well in politics, whether that's through pathos (ie. like Trump) or logos (ie. like Nixon) or both (ie. like Obama).
Confusing the cause of her defeat with being fundamentally sexism or racism is wrong and probably dangerous (leading the Democratic establishment to abandon merit in the opposite direction, pushing them to nominate a generic white dude if and when a minority is more qualified and electable). Ultimately, you need to be able to excite people to win the election, and Harris did not have the political talent to do so. You also can't discount that being a candidate who would make history as the first woman president will motivate a lot of people to vote.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentI definitely stand by the charge that she's inarticulate (pardon the snark in the video). Again, you could argue she's no worse than Trump, Biden, or Bush Jr, but that's a depressingly low bar to...I definitely stand by the charge that she's inarticulate (pardon the snark in the video). Again, you could argue she's no worse than Trump, Biden, or Bush Jr, but that's a depressingly low bar to set. There are plenty of articulate black women in American politics, and Kamala Harris isn't one of them.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentHim being an atheist, I agree, is probably his greatest hurdle. Though, we've had a few skeptic presidents already (looking at you, Jefferson and Lincoln). I think an "agnostic who doesn't deny...Him being an atheist, I agree, is probably his greatest hurdle. Though, we've had a few skeptic presidents already (looking at you, Jefferson and Lincoln). I think an "agnostic who doesn't deny God and wants to believe in him" could potentially squeak through.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentNot discounting your experience at all, but Stewart didn't talk about it in a xenophobic way at all or with intent to stoke anti-Asian sentiment. Especially because there wound up being scientific...Not discounting your experience at all, but Stewart didn't talk about it in a xenophobic way at all or with intent to stoke anti-Asian sentiment. Especially because there wound up being scientific merit to the theory, true or not, the people who actually committed the act or stoked anti Asian sentiment should be held accountable.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentAt the end of the day, if your plan is to convince people you're the lesser of two evils, you're running a bad campaign.At the end of the day, if your plan is to convince people you're the lesser of two evils, you're running a bad campaign.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic (edited )Link ParentI wouldn't say Jon's opinion on the issue is fringeI wouldn't say Jon's opinion on the issue is fringe
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentMaybe that doesn't matter as much in the modern age. See: hispanics voting in large numbers for Trump in 2024. People want someone who's authentic more than anything, and I think Stewart would get...Maybe that doesn't matter as much in the modern age. See: hispanics voting in large numbers for Trump in 2024. People want someone who's authentic more than anything, and I think Stewart would get some grace on account of being a comedian.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentHarris is not articulate or knowledgable on policy. She's had many gaffes that are hard to ignore. Perhaps she would've been treated better if she were a man, but that's a depressingly low bar to...Harris is not articulate or knowledgable on policy. She's had many gaffes that are hard to ignore. Perhaps she would've been treated better if she were a man, but that's a depressingly low bar to accept regardless. She also refused to pay even lip service on Gaza and failed to describe how she'd be any different from Biden.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentI think he should at least put his hat in the ring in the primaries. If he were to win the nomination, he would have no trouble securing funding to win the general. Looking at how much...I think he should at least put his hat in the ring in the primaries. If he were to win the nomination, he would have no trouble securing funding to win the general. Looking at how much Biden/Kamala outspent Trump in 2024 and at Zohran's campaign in NYC, I'm also skeptical that money would be a deciding factor. Stewart already has a massive media advantage for free. He would need just enough to get a decent ground game going, which I think he could do through independent donations like Bernie did in 2016.
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Comment on Jon Stewart is our only hope in ~society
thearctic Link ParentEhh, Hillary and Kamala I think were uniquely bad candidates. Misogyny certainly influences things, but I don't think the American people are fundamentally opposed to having a woman in office. I...Ehh, Hillary and Kamala I think were uniquely bad candidates. Misogyny certainly influences things, but I don't think the American people are fundamentally opposed to having a woman in office. I don't think Warren would have had the same problems, but the progressive vote being split was what sank her in the primary.
I'd also much rather have a thoughtful comedian over another billionaire.
This article describes the relationship between military dominance and reserve currency status.
Historically, pressuring or incentivizing nations to price their commodity exports in dollars either economically or through security ties (ie. the petrodollar) played an instrumental role in increasing demand for the dollar. There are also network effects that make it harder to move away from the dollar once it's reached a critical mass of acceptance globally.
Canada and the EU can't "agree" to trade in euros without strict capital controls, since it's up to individual businesses and investors. It could set up stronger bilateral trade agreements or disincentivize trade with the US to partially reduce dollar dependence, but there's an inherent cost to doing so and it would invite economic backlash from the US.
The fundamental problem with the EU putting up a united front against US dysfunction and bullying, either economically or militarily, is that the EU is a voluntary union of sovereign states whose future is always uncertain. This political risk is a large reason why the euro is not a great contender for being the global reserve currency and why the EU isn't able to project power the same way the US, China, or even Russia are able to.