thearctic's recent activity
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Comment on The big little penis panic in ~life.men
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Comment on Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in war in ~society
thearctic Link ParentRisk aversion is when you discount the expected value of a gamble when making a decision. If I sold you the right to play a game of chance, where there was a one in a quadrillion chance of winning...Risk aversion is when you discount the expected value of a gamble when making a decision. If I sold you the right to play a game of chance, where there was a one in a quadrillion chance of winning a quintillion dollars, and if you were will unwilling to buy it at $999 (which, under risk neutral behavior, would be a deal since expected value is $1000) then, formally, you would be risk averse. As noted, risk aversion is not irrational and is a natural consequence of being unable to "play a game" enough times in order tighten the probability distribution around its expected value. In practice, we often regard behavior that's only slightly risk averse as bold (imagine if someone you knew was willing to play that game for $990), so I believe that this facet of decision making in the face of uncertainty will definitely help Ukraine in negotiations regardless.
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Comment on Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in war in ~society
thearctic Link ParentPeople are naturally risk averse, which is to say that they overcompensate for downside risk. There's a logic to this instinct in that a purely random bad luck streak, if it goes on for long...People are naturally risk averse, which is to say that they overcompensate for downside risk. There's a logic to this instinct in that a purely random bad luck streak, if it goes on for long enough, can prevent you from being able to continue to "play the game" and win back your losses. Even if, by the Russian government's calculations, the theory and data primarily point to the conclusion that things will fluctuate but over time Russia will make gains, there's some risk that there's real momentum behind the gains Ukraine is making and one would expect Russia to overcompensate for that risk in negotiations.
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Comment on Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in war in ~society
thearctic LinkIn my view, Ukraine and the West need to take this upcoming opportunity to sue for peace on relatively favorable grounds rather than squander it in a war of attrition they will likely lose. I...Ukraine has a six-month window in which to seize the battlefield initiative from Russia and strengthen its hand for peace talks, a senior commander told Reuters, predicting a "turning point" was imminent after more than four years of war.
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President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said last week Ukraine had retaken nearly 600 square km (230 square miles) of territory in 2026. Reuters could not independently verify the figure. Moscow currently controls almost one-fifth of Ukrainian territory.
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Biletsky said it was too early to draw conclusions from Kyiv's recent success, but that Ukraine could capitalise on it by continuing mid-range attacks and advancing "carefully".
In my view, Ukraine and the West need to take this upcoming opportunity to sue for peace on relatively favorable grounds rather than squander it in a war of attrition they will likely lose. I think a reasonable model for this war from beginning to end is like the inverse of the stock market: there are up and down fluctuations, but there's a clear long-term downward trend. Ukraine is approaching a local maximum and needs to take it and run.
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Senior Ukrainian commander sees imminent 'turning point' in war
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Comment on Nasdaq rewrites its index inclusion rules ahead of SpaceX IPO in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentWhat I worry most about is the government intervening to clean up these messes or to artificially juice the stock market as a whole, which they are very comfortable doing.What I worry most about is the government intervening to clean up these messes or to artificially juice the stock market as a whole, which they are very comfortable doing.
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Comment on Nasdaq rewrites its index inclusion rules ahead of SpaceX IPO in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentIf we assume the market is perfectly rational, then using the stock price and the yield curve (to determine the time value of money for present value calculations), we should be able to generate...That’s ideally the point of the market - none of the actors need to be good actors, they can be maximally selfish and yet the equilibrium is that the commodity is priced at its true economic value.
If we assume the market is perfectly rational, then using the stock price and the yield curve (to determine the time value of money for present value calculations), we should be able to generate an implied projected profit. It's an empirical reality that if we apply this to a variety of "overvalued" stocks, we generate an implied profit that simply does not make any sense and/or that is inconsistent between stocks (ex. Tesla's stock value only being justified under the projection that it takes over the entire US car industry, and then some). Therefore, we must conclude the market is being irrational and that we will be exposed to the downside in some form or the other down the line.
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Comment on Nasdaq rewrites its index inclusion rules ahead of SpaceX IPO in ~finance
thearctic (edited )Link ParentIdeally, our major financial institutions should care about financial integrity and whether stocks are priced at their true economic value. I care about stocks being properly valued because...Ideally, our major financial institutions should care about financial integrity and whether stocks are priced at their true economic value. I care about stocks being properly valued because otherwise it undermines the degree to which ordinary consumers can decide winners and losers in the economy through their consumption and also incentivizes government bailouts of some form or the other down the line when there's an impending correction. Of course, people can vote with their wallets and this discussion is to highlight what Nasdaq is doing.
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Comment on Nasdaq rewrites its index inclusion rules ahead of SpaceX IPO in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentThere is a strange logic at play, where large cap stocks that are highly overvalued in the medium term benefit both from greater access to borrowing at lower rates and from the "too big to fail"...There is a strange logic at play, where large cap stocks that are highly overvalued in the medium term benefit both from greater access to borrowing at lower rates and from the "too big to fail" paradigm, which in turn translates to real long-term gain for the company. This isn't something I'd want to support.
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Comment on Nasdaq rewrites its index inclusion rules ahead of SpaceX IPO in ~finance
thearctic LinkOne of the reasons I'm not a fan of passive investing. Passive investing only works under the assumption that there are enough active investors out there properly pricing in information and...Now, a stock is eligible for fast-track inclusion after just 15 trading days, with almost no float if its market capitalization places it among the top 40 holdings of the Nasdaq-100.
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With only a thin slice of equity available, SpaceX’s price discovery process may be driven less by fundamentals and more by supply-demand imbalances. A relatively small number of buyers and sellers will effectively determine the valuation of a multi-trillion-dollar company.
One of the reasons I'm not a fan of passive investing. Passive investing only works under the assumption that there are enough active investors out there properly pricing in information and applying rational analysis to the market. If enough people are passively investing, then you'll lose a lot of rational price discovery. Some will say that this is naturally self-correcting, since active investors will always be able to profit off irrational valuations. But, if the market doesn't correct for longer than you can stay solvent or, in the less extreme case, stay within an acceptable band of performance, then your clients will take their wealth to another fund. Add in post-2008 moral hazard (or as Buffet has called it, the "too big to fail" paradigm), the growth of unsophisticated retail investing, and rational investors trading off expectations of irrationality within the market, it becomes harder to impossible to make sustained bets on truly fundamental rational analysis. And, once the canonical valuation models start to fail or underperform, the game theory starts to really favor trading off of momentum and sentiment over true fundamentals.
SpaceX's plan is to create an absurdly high valuation through a small portion of the market that's highly risk-loving, cynical, and/or irrational, then to stabilize that price through an accelerated entry into the Nasdaq-100.
On a related note, I found this excerpt a little funny:
Still, even with the perceived misalignment, some rules probably did need to change.Taking a $200 million company public is different from $2 trillion one. SpaceX is not the only company that stayed private for a long time period as it grew. When these large entities do go public, the initial float must be small. The IPO would be too large for the market to digest.
"Too large to digest" = bullshit valuation.
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Nasdaq rewrites its index inclusion rules ahead of SpaceX IPO
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Comment on TSA announces TSA Gold+ in ~transport
thearctic Link ParentIt's impressively slop-ish. Like I feel like I'm in a sitcom.It's impressively slop-ish. Like I feel like I'm in a sitcom.
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What stock do you put in gut feelings?
What stock do you put in gut feelings when making an important decision? Especially when the clearly articulable pros are stronger on one side but your gut favors the other?
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Comment on Tildes Survey #4: What languages can you speak? (Results) in ~talk
thearctic Link ParentA society can be faulted for the actions of its leaders to the extent that it was responsible for putting them and keeping them in power. Lenin led the Bolshevik revolution, while Stalin inherited...A society can be faulted for the actions of its leaders to the extent that it was responsible for putting them and keeping them in power. Lenin led the Bolshevik revolution, while Stalin inherited and co-opted its structures, making Russian society only responsible for the "keeping Stalin in power" bit, and only to the extent they collectively held the largest share of power. Lenin, in contrast to Stalin, was eventually willing to accept humanitarian aid for Ukraine and allow limited free enterprise. Lenin's greatest sin was biblical hubris to a scale never before seen in history, while Stalin's was blatant vindictiveness and cruelty. Russians wouldn't be alone in facing criticism in that the desire for a strongman exists in a variety of cultures, especially in Eastern Europe/Central Asia/the Caucuses.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #4: What languages can you speak? (Results) in ~talk
thearctic Link ParentIn my view, I would say Russia is the single largest inheritor of the USSR's legacy, but other components of the ex-Soviet Union are also inheritors of that legacy to a lesser extent. Especially...In my view, I would say Russia is the single largest inheritor of the USSR's legacy, but other components of the ex-Soviet Union are also inheritors of that legacy to a lesser extent. Especially with Stalin specifically, it's hard to pin his actions on some fundamental feature of Russian culture or society, given the divergence of his approach to Ukrainian famine compared to the man who was originally responsible for mobilizing Russian society en masse, Lenin. Russians could be faulted for failing to intervene against a brutal strongman, but they definitely wouldn't be alone in facing that criticism.
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Comment on Tildes Survey #4: What languages can you speak? (Results) in ~talk
thearctic Link ParentChalice, il neige en tabarnak! Quebecois French sounds cool to me.Chalice, il neige en tabarnak!
Quebecois French sounds cool to me. -
Comment on Tildes Survey #4: What languages can you speak? (Results) in ~talk
thearctic Link ParentI'm not well-versed on Soviet history, but is it fair to equate the USSR directly with Russia, given that its longest serving and most brutal leader, Stalin, was Georgian and that Trotsky and...I'm not well-versed on Soviet history, but is it fair to equate the USSR directly with Russia, given that its longest serving and most brutal leader, Stalin, was Georgian and that Trotsky and Brezhnev were born in what is now Ukraine?
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Comment on Can helium-3 create a gold rush on the moon? in ~space
thearctic LinkI hope not. Ideally, space exploration will forever be a purely publicly funded enterprise.I hope not. Ideally, space exploration will forever be a purely publicly funded enterprise.
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Comment on Why is it so hard to get an ADHD diagnosis? How do you find a good psychologist? in ~health.mental
thearctic LinkTo be honest, the quality of mental health services seem to vary a lot depending on the country, at least based on my experience seeking counseling years ago in the US versus another western...To be honest, the quality of mental health services seem to vary a lot depending on the country, at least based on my experience seeking counseling years ago in the US versus another western country (the US being worse). At the same time, it's a dangerous thing, as a patient/non-expert, to be shopping around for opinions beyond simply getting a second opinion, since you'll eventually be able to find someone who will affirm your potentially incorrect theory of what's going on. There's also something to be said about mental health treatment being both a science and an art. How do we define when something is truly pathological or normal person-to-person variation? One definition might say something is a mental health disorder when it gets in the way of work, relationships, and/or your physical health. But, there are a million things that limit our ability to be perfect worker bees or perfect friends and it would be strange to want to medicalize all that. In Romania, I would expect them to have a different set of paradigms in mental health treatment which, completely separate from the question of how good or bad the care actually is, have their own set of justifiable trade offs. I don't have an answer for your situation but those are just some things to chew on.
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Comment on Mark Ruffalo and Matt Stoller: This merger can, and should, be stopped in ~movies
thearctic Link ParentYeah, my younger baby boomer dad who's very disillusioned about politics still has a strange attachment to CNNYeah, my younger baby boomer dad who's very disillusioned about politics still has a strange attachment to CNN
Porn has gotten a lot more ubiquitous for young people. They're watching more of it and at a younger age than they did even 10 years ago. An interesting development is that young women are watching much more porn than before, which now makes men victims of the porn-induced expectations that used to only primarily affect women.
It also seems that porn has gotten more extreme than it was relatively recently. I don't know if it's consumers or the companies pushing it, but you see more members that are clearly prosthetic or surgical. Even on the amateur side, it's gotten more extreme. A solidly above average guy, according to the studies, would be tiny if porn, either professional or amateur, were your only reference.