thearctic's recent activity
-
Comment on Study: essay graders rarely detect AI, give higher grades in ~tech
-
Comment on Study: essay graders rarely detect AI, give higher grades in ~tech
thearctic (edited )LinkAt this point, there is no material difference from a half decently prompt engineered AI generated essay and many of the types of essays students have submitting to their teachers for generations....At this point, there is no material difference from a half decently prompt engineered AI generated essay and many of the types of essays students have submitting to their teachers for generations. What's particularly problematic about "AI detectors" is that, in many cases, it's actually good for students to write in a relatively formulaic way, especially when they're starting out with formal argumentative essay writing.
I honestly can't understand why instructors haven't mostly pivoted away from take-home essays, except maybe for practice (or truly rigorous courses where AI doesn't help much and students are motivated to actually learn), to reading quizzes, in-class essays, and oral exams. This is really the only route forward now, and it's ridiculous how many people's academic careers have been essentially ruined from "AI detectors" and kangaroo academic courts.
-
Comment on Op Ed from UnitedHealth Group CEO: The US health care system is flawed. Let’s fix it. (gifted link) in ~society
thearctic (edited )LinkI have a hard time taking the claims by health insurance companies seriously that they're playing any meaningful role in improving care while, instead of passing those savings on to customers,...I have a hard time taking the claims by health insurance companies seriously that they're playing any meaningful role in improving care while, instead of passing those savings on to customers, they post ungodly profits ($16 billion in 2023 for UnitedHealthCare, compared to $1.3B for a similarly sized non-health insurance company like State Farm or $(-)0.3B for Allstate). The complexity of healthcare allows for a profound level of moral sophistry from insurers and drug companies.
The fundamental problem with health insurance is that it simply is not competitive, in the sense that major frictions get in the way of consumers punishing insurance companies for providing a poor product (main ones IMO being that your employer decides your plan and the provider files the claim instead of the consumer). If we want a private health care system, I'd rather we have a fairly conventional insurance market for health care (ex. car insurance), coupled with a mandatory and progressively government-subsidized health savings account to cover necessary treatments for when a subset of people inevitably underinsure themselves, à la Singapore.
-
Comment on Israel confirms attack on Syrian naval fleet in ~news
thearctic Link ParentIt's worth noting that the petrodollar supports the dollar's position as the world reserve currency, which would be potentially threatened if the security arrangement shifted such that the gulf...It's worth noting that the petrodollar supports the dollar's position as the world reserve currency, which would be potentially threatened if the security arrangement shifted such that the gulf states were no longer dependent on the US.
-
Comment on A liar who always lies says “All my hats are green.” in ~science
thearctic Link ParentSorry, I meant exactly 5 and exactly 3, which would both be vacuously true.Sorry, I meant exactly 5 and exactly 3, which would both be vacuously true.
-
Comment on A liar who always lies says “All my hats are green.” in ~science
thearctic Link ParentI mean, it's all just semantics anyways. But I would consider it neither a truth nor a lie. It would be like if the person who always lies were to read a book aloud. My issue with vacuous truths...I mean, it's all just semantics anyways. But I would consider it neither a truth nor a lie. It would be like if the person who always lies were to read a book aloud.
My issue with vacuous truths is that you can say things that are both true but contradict each other. For instance, that each purple elephant has five legs and each purple elephant has three legs.
-
Comment on A liar who always lies says “All my hats are green.” in ~science
thearctic (edited )LinkThe technical answer is that the liar having no hats would make the statement vacuously true, so they must have at least one hat. There's insufficient information to infer anything more....The technical answer is that the liar having no hats would make the statement vacuously true, so they must have at least one hat. There's insufficient information to infer anything more.
Philosophically, I don't consider vacuous truths to actually be truths (or at least speaking vacuous truths doesn't preclude you from being a liar), it just makes predicate logic work out neatly. Sort of like how it can be convenient in some instances to say that dividing by zero results in infinity, when it's really just undefined.
-
Comment on How did you do on the AI art Turing test? in ~arts
thearctic LinkThe thing with AI art is that, without sifting through unimaginable reams of training art, it's hard to tell how much of it is essentially plagiarism. Maybe the best pieces are basically just...The thing with AI art is that, without sifting through unimaginable reams of training art, it's hard to tell how much of it is essentially plagiarism. Maybe the best pieces are basically just smoothed out collages of three or four existing pieces? I remember earlier on, there were many easily identifiable cases of this with generative text and art/video. With a much larger dataset, I'd imagine it would be quite difficult.
-
Comment on ICC issues arrest warrant for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu in ~society
thearctic Link ParentI'd say you're missing out a crucial aspect of why these international organizations exist: to work out, in hopefully a neutral space, different parties' grievances and to eventually work towards...I'd say you're missing out a crucial aspect of why these international organizations exist: to work out, in hopefully a neutral space, different parties' grievances and to eventually work towards the truth or a policy objective in a way that's transparent and credible. When these international institutions are set up properly, they gain prestige and often have significant cache in domestic debates and policymaking. In the case of the ICC, there exist many countries with statutory frameworks for cooperating with the ICC, and you can see here already a sizable list of countries that say they will enforce the ruling.
-
Comment on A Minecraft Movie | Official trailer in ~movies
thearctic LinkThe boiler plate music and editing that every blockbuster trailer now has is pretty horrendous. Even worse than "iN a wOrLd...". Otherwise, the movie seems like a fun, simple movie to watch with...The boiler plate music and editing that every blockbuster trailer now has is pretty horrendous. Even worse than "iN a wOrLd...". Otherwise, the movie seems like a fun, simple movie to watch with the family.
-
Comment on Thoughts on a Democratic postmortem in ~society
thearctic LinkI think you hit the nail on the head of much of what went wrong. I would partially disagree with a few things: Foreign policy: I think it mattered more than you'd think. Not necessarily because...I think you hit the nail on the head of much of what went wrong. I would partially disagree with a few things:
-
Foreign policy: I think it mattered more than you'd think. Not necessarily because there was a large constituency voting solely on that (though there was certainly a much larger portion of the electorate that cared quite a bit about Gaza beyond just Muslim Americans), but that it dramatically shifted the vibe among hyper-engaged Millennials and GenZ that you heavily depend on for canvassing, organizing, evangelizing, and keyboard-warrioring . Gaza made it difficult for most people who are highly engaged in politics to feel actively good about voting for Harris. I mean, the fact that there exists an intellectually-defensible, though arguably weak, argument as to how Trump would be marginally better is really bad. The electorate more broadly is also anxious about getting entangled with foreign conflicts, and it's empirically true that we had less conflict under Trump than Biden and that Ukraine was a strategic failure (whether Trump would've done better may be another question).
-
Immigration: I would just add that the Latino vote was largely lost because of mass illegal immigration, not purely social issues. It was their communities that felt the brunt of the chaos and the Biden administration handled the border logistically poorly.
-
Scolding: horrendous strategy from the Dems that definitely hurt them much more than it helped.
-
JD Vance: Picking Vance was a base pick and a gamble, but it paid off handsomely I think. The base loves him and it made the non-full-out-crazies in the Trump camp feel like they were voting for something than against something. He was smart to be on a constant media blitz and to routinely go to adversarial settings; if you go into a room where everyone hates you, you only stand to gain.
-
GOTV: The Trump campaign's get-out-the-vote I think was just much stronger. They kept hammering home that they should get 5 or 10 of their friends to go vote.
-
-
Can/should Tildes pull out of search engine results?
The other thread about potential spam on the site got me thinking, can/should Tildes hide itself from Google and other search engines (aside from just the main page) to avoid the tentacles of SEO...
The other thread about potential spam on the site got me thinking, can/should Tildes hide itself from Google and other search engines (aside from just the main page) to avoid the tentacles of SEO from infiltrating the site? I'm not sure how feasible that is, but I know reddit has the option to prevent your profile from getting indexed by search engines so perhaps that could be applied to the site as a whole.
23 votes -
Comment on What’s behind the sudden surge in young Americans’ wealth? in ~finance
thearctic LinkI'm curious how much bitcoin has contributed to this. I know a decent number of people who did very well for themselves (on the upper end, pretty much printing money) through cryptocurrency over...I'm curious how much bitcoin has contributed to this. I know a decent number of people who did very well for themselves (on the upper end, pretty much printing money) through cryptocurrency over the years.
-
Comment on Hamas was created and supported by Israel to oppose the seculars, divide Palestinians, and destroy the two-state solution in ~society
thearctic (edited )Link ParentThe takeaway is that Israel is not a good-faith actor or a reliable partner in peace. We should treat them more like Turkey or Saudi Arabia than Canada or the UK—a practical geopolitical ally we...The takeaway is that Israel is not a good-faith actor or a reliable partner in peace. We should treat them more like Turkey or Saudi Arabia than Canada or the UK—a practical geopolitical ally we support to the extent that they directly support US interests. The idea that America should provide unconditional support (I don't think people understand what "unconditional" means, they just go along with it because it sounds nice) to any country is ridiculous, let alone a nation that is, by the standard we apply to other countries, a state-sponsor of terror.
-
Comment on California bans legacy admissions at private universities in ~society
thearctic (edited )Link ParentIt's true that elite universities rarely admit unqualified candidates for legacy reasons, but it's also true that most rejected applicants, according to these universities themselves, are...It's true that elite universities rarely admit unqualified candidates for legacy reasons, but it's also true that most rejected applicants, according to these universities themselves, are qualified. It's so competitive to get into these schools and the bulk of acceptances are made off of marginal differences, that the actual causal factor between someone getting in or not getting in to a school like Princeton often is legacy status.
-
Comment on At least sixty-four dead and millions without power after hurricane Helene devastates south-eastern US states with landslides and flooding, washing away roads and bridges in ~enviro
thearctic LinkIt's concerning to me how relatively little coverage this is getting in the news for an issue of this scale.It's concerning to me how relatively little coverage this is getting in the news for an issue of this scale.
-
Comment on California bans legacy admissions at private universities in ~society
thearctic Link ParentIt depends on the university. Some schools, it's a pretty minor factor. At other schools (ex. Princeton), it's a major factor.It depends on the university. Some schools, it's a pretty minor factor. At other schools (ex. Princeton), it's a major factor.
-
Comment on Aug 2024 - "America isn’t ready for the wars of the future" by Mark Milley (ex-Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff) and Eric Schmidt (ex-CEO of Google) in ~society
thearctic Link ParentI'm personally pessimistic that there will be any MAD paradigm with robotics in warfare. The thing I'd say that makes MAD work with nukes is that there existed no gradations between "normal" bombs...I'm personally pessimistic that there will be any MAD paradigm with robotics in warfare. The thing I'd say that makes MAD work with nukes is that there existed no gradations between "normal" bombs and nuclear bombs; the weakest nuke was still many times stronger and more devastating than a conventional bomb (on that note, the first deployment of tactical nukes I think may risk ending MAD). With automated robotic weapons of war, I think it will be too much of a gradient for us to perceive it as causing mutual destruction, rightly or wrongly.
-
Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of September 16 in ~society
thearctic Link ParentLooking at this survey, economists across the board think debt is something to worry about to some degree or another. Even a "saltwater" economist like Krugman says that the debt to GDP ratio...Looking at this survey, economists across the board think debt is something to worry about to some degree or another. Even a "saltwater" economist like Krugman says that the debt to GDP ratio needs to be stabilized, which would require sustained levels of post-war growth—a solution that one can object to on its own grounds (environmental, social sustainability, wealth inequality concerns).
-
Comment on Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of September 16 in ~society
thearctic (edited )Link ParentTo correct something, the video points to a clip where Trump seems to have confused the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit, but they seem to have misunderstood him saying that the role of the...To correct something, the video points to a clip where Trump seems to have confused the fiscal deficit and the trade deficit, but they seem to have misunderstood him saying that the role of the trade deficit in the fiscal deficit is understated.
Their dichotomy between "orthodox economists" and "modern monetary theorists" disagreeing and, therefore, it being an open question whether America's debt trajectory will cause serious problems is strange. Almost like saying that there's great debate between physicians and anti-vax theorists and that therefore it's up in the air whether vaccines are safe. Also, a little quibble: orthodox and classical economics are not synonymous; orthodox is everything that's not fringe, while classical economics is the school of thought started by Adam Smith.
Some solutions could be to: allow AI then raise grading standards for advanced courses, have a really long in-class essay session once or twice a semester, or to have an oral exam explaining and defending your take-home essay which makes up a majority of your grade for the assignment. In any case, doing things as normal and trying to catch students with AI checkers isn't a viable option.