thearctic's recent activity
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Comment on Gold tops $4,900/oz; silver and platinum extend record‑setting rally in ~finance
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Comment on Gold tops $4,900/oz; silver and platinum extend record‑setting rally in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentGold is divisible, so there's no major barrier of entry financially. In many developing countries, middle and working class people hold their savings in gold.Gold is divisible, so there's no major barrier of entry financially. In many developing countries, middle and working class people hold their savings in gold.
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Comment on Gold tops $4,900/oz; silver and platinum extend record‑setting rally in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentIf you're a believer in gold as an investment, perhaps you could, in good conscience, sell your customers on the idea that it'll hold in value or gain in value? I hear of a lot of people wanting...If you're a believer in gold as an investment, perhaps you could, in good conscience, sell your customers on the idea that it'll hold in value or gain in value? I hear of a lot of people wanting to buy gold, as an investment, in the form of jewelry so that it's quickly accessible and meanwhile serves a function. Targetting that customer base somehow might also help.
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Comment on Gold tops $4,900/oz; silver and platinum extend record‑setting rally in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentGiven the use for your business and the utility of it as an investment, would it be worthwhile to hold sizable amounts of gold as insurance against price increases?Given the use for your business and the utility of it as an investment, would it be worthwhile to hold sizable amounts of gold as insurance against price increases?
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Comment on Gold tops $4,900/oz; silver and platinum extend record‑setting rally in ~finance
thearctic Link"Geopolitical tensions, generally weak dollar, expectations for the Fed easing this year are all factors that are part and parcel of the macro de-dollarisation trend and are still impacting the demand (for gold)," said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.
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Gold tops $4,900/oz; silver and platinum extend record‑setting rally
32 votes -
Comment on Iran’s supreme leader signals harsher crackdown as protest movement swells in ~society
thearctic (edited )Link ParentCBS is reporting a possible death toll between 12,000 and 20,000. It seems equally possible to me that this claim is completely true or that it's manufactured to sell a regime-change war, which is...CBS is reporting a possible death toll between 12,000 and 20,000. It seems equally possible to me that this claim is completely true or that it's manufactured to sell a regime-change war, which is a horrifying state of affairs.
Edit: for the sake of completeness, I should note that Reuters, BBC, and AP News are all reporting the figure of "over 2000" deaths.
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Comment on ‘Sell America’ returns to Wall Street after Donald Trump ups the ante against Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve in ~society
thearctic Link ParentPersonally, I think it's that Trump is surrounded around another level of yes-men compared to his first term. Everyone in the second admin got the memo from seeing the first admin that you have to...Personally, I think it's that Trump is surrounded around another level of yes-men compared to his first term. Everyone in the second admin got the memo from seeing the first admin that you have to really suck up to him to keep your job. That means that he's getting not only no pushback, but active praise, for his increasingly unhinged ideas.
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Concerning YouTube short I came across
Short in question This short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike...
Short in question
This short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike older AI videos, virtually nobody in the comments realizes. With how good AI is getting, we'll very probably have actual riots and political conflict breaking out over AI hoaxes and AI-fueled sentiment campaigns (if the WhatsApp lynchings in 2017-2018 are any measure of how bad social media hoaxes can get). On the other side, citizen journalism of atrocities may come to be worthless and easily dismissed as AI. Humanity is cooked, as the kids say.
(Reposted as a text post and with a better title. Previous comments can be viewed here)
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Comment on ‘Sell America’ returns to Wall Street after Donald Trump ups the ante against Jerome Powell and the Federal Reserve in ~society
thearctic LinkInterestingly, the SP500/NASDAQ hasn't really dropped, suggesting that the market has already priced in these shenanigans (assuming the market is currently rational).Interestingly, the SP500/NASDAQ hasn't really dropped, suggesting that the market has already priced in these shenanigans (assuming the market is currently rational).
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Comment on We are officially cooked in ~society
thearctic LinkThis short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike older AI videos,...This short popped up in my recommended. It's clearly AI (tinny voice, random jump in scenes in the middle of one of her sentence, very awkward "oh yeah, stop me"), but, unlike older AI videos, virtually nobody in the comments realizes. With how good AI is getting, we'll very probably have actual riots and political conflict breaking out over AI hoaxes and AI-fueled sentiment campaigns (if the WhatsApp lynchings in 2017 are any measure of the lengths people will go). On the other side, citizen journalism of atrocities may come to be worthless and easily dismissed as AI. Society is cooked, as the kids say.
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Comment on In most countries, imports from China account for less than 10% of GDP, even where China is the top partner in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentThat economic interdependence is also what disincentivizes countries from blowing each other up.That economic interdependence is also what disincentivizes countries from blowing each other up.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
thearctic Link ParentThis article describes the relationship between military dominance and reserve currency status. Historically, pressuring or incentivizing nations to price their commodity exports in dollars either...This article describes the relationship between military dominance and reserve currency status.
Historically, pressuring or incentivizing nations to price their commodity exports in dollars either economically or through security ties (ie. the petrodollar) played an instrumental role in increasing demand for the dollar. There are also network effects that make it harder to move away from the dollar once it's reached a critical mass of acceptance globally.
Canada and the EU can't "agree" to trade in euros without strict capital controls, since it's up to individual businesses and investors. It could set up stronger bilateral trade agreements or disincentivize trade with the US to partially reduce dollar dependence, but there's an inherent cost to doing so and it would invite economic backlash from the US.
The fundamental problem with the EU putting up a united front against US dysfunction and bullying, either economically or militarily, is that the EU is a voluntary union of sovereign states whose future is always uncertain. This political risk is a large reason why the euro is not a great contender for being the global reserve currency and why the EU isn't able to project power the same way the US, China, or even Russia are able to.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
thearctic Link ParentI'd say America is "crashing out" more or less. Its status as the global hegemon and as the global reserve currency was never going to last forever, and it hasn't done itself any favors on those...I'd say America is "crashing out" more or less. Its status as the global hegemon and as the global reserve currency was never going to last forever, and it hasn't done itself any favors on those fronts over the last 10 years. But might makes right and, in theory, if America were dominant enough it could compel the world onto dollars a bit longer. That'll almost definitely fail, but the US I think will attempt it.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
thearctic Link ParentWestern Europe does need to show some backbone. Not even that much. Just enough to show that things would get ugly for everyone to do something as insane as invading Greenland.Western Europe does need to show some backbone. Not even that much. Just enough to show that things would get ugly for everyone to do something as insane as invading Greenland.
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Comment on US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House in ~society
thearctic (edited )LinkUnfortunately, I think the US will have Greenland if it seriously pushes for it. It's hard for me to imagine Western Europe going to war or even skirmishing over it. Personally, I think this is...Trump repeated over the weekend that the US "needed" Greenland for security reasons, prompting Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen to warn that any attack by the US would spell the end of Nato.
The White House said on Tuesday: "The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the Commander-in-Chief's disposal."
Unfortunately, I think the US will have Greenland if it seriously pushes for it. It's hard for me to imagine Western Europe going to war or even skirmishing over it. Personally, I think this is largely downstream of the national debt (taking a more domineering role on the world stage to try to prop up the dollar as the reserve currency, physically expanding to make more room for GDP growth beyond what would be possible otherwise).
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US discussing options to acquire Greenland, including use of military, says White House
43 votes -
Comment on Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Nicolas Maduro's capture in ~society
thearctic LinkWith the ability to bet on virtually anything and everything, you make it very easy for people with insider political knowledge to get very very rich. This is a very dishonorable and problematic...An unknown trader has raked in a profit worth about $410,000 after betting that Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro would be ousted from his position.
The trader's account on Polymarket, opens new tab built up positions in contracts tied to Maduro's removal on terms that implied long odds before the weekend raid. Those wagers, which were worth about $34,000 prior to Maduro's capture, surged in value after news of the U.S. military operation on the Venezuelan leader emerged, Polymarket data shows.
With the ability to bet on virtually anything and everything, you make it very easy for people with insider political knowledge to get very very rich. This is a very dishonorable and problematic way to make money, but the libertarian in me wants to play devil's advocate and say that, in a strange way, this is essentially a whistleblower's bounty in service of the public. If we say that secrecy is in general a bad, especially in powerful and basically unaccountable institutions, then it may be considered a good to allow for this information to indirectly trickle out through betting markets. On the other hand, does it incentivize these institutions to take more unpredictable actions, simply because they are unpredictable, to be able to make huge returns through insider knowledge?
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Mystery trader garners $400,000-plus windfall on Nicolas Maduro's capture
27 votes -
Have you ever had an oddly specific dream come true?
Just curious
20 votes
We're in a period of high current and projected inflation, particularly in the US, and people are trying to protect themselves from it. The reason people are being squeezed is because of inflation and that their wages aren't keeping up with it. In an ideal world, inflation would be relatively low and the labor income share of GDP relative to capital would be high enough such that you could reliably build wealth through productive work alone and that the only reliable way to build wealth would be through productive work alone. Unfortunately, we don't live in that world and you have to insulate yourself somehow from fiscal/monetary mismanagement.