thearctic's recent activity
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Comment on Why people embrace conspiracy theories: It's about community, not gullibility in ~life
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Comment on Benjamin Netanyahu vows there will be no Palestinian state ahead of UN meeting in ~society
thearctic Link"We said there will be no Palestinian state -- and indeed there will be no Palestinian state! This place is ours. We will take care of our heritage, our land and our security," Netanyahu said.
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Benjamin Netanyahu vows there will be no Palestinian state ahead of UN meeting
16 votes -
Comment on Conservative activist Charlie Kirk shot and killed at Utah college event in ~society
thearctic Link ParentWhat's the takeaway, though? That gun ownership should not be understood to be a right, and anyone who thinks it should is a fool?What's the takeaway, though? That gun ownership should not be understood to be a right, and anyone who thinks it should is a fool?
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Comment on Conservative activist Charlie Kirk shot and killed at Utah college event in ~society
thearctic Link ParentI think this is in bad taste, honestly. There needs to be room for gun control, but there's a rational, humanitarian case that gun ownership should be understood primarily as right than a...I think this is in bad taste, honestly. There needs to be room for gun control, but there's a rational, humanitarian case that gun ownership should be understood primarily as right than a privilege. There's a reason why the harshest crackdown against guns in the USSR happened under Collectivization, which directly led to the deaths of millions of people. In the context of American politics, we need to be able to talk about gun control while still recognizing a general right to bear arms. Whether Charlie Kirk productively contributed to the conversation may be another question, but I don't think taking schadenfreude is appropriate or justified.
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Comment on Israel targets Hamas leadership in military strikes on Qatar, officials say in ~society
thearctic LinkBy any standard, Israel is a rogue state.Two Hamas sources told Reuters that Hamas officials in the ceasefire negotiating team survived the attack, which followed an evacuation order in Gaza City where Israel is waging an offensive to try to destroy the group and its military capabilities in the Gaza Strip.
Israeli officials told Reuters the strike was aimed at top Hamas leaders including Khalil al-Hayya, its exiled Gaza chief and top negotiator.
The assault is likely to deal a serious, if not fatal, blow to efforts to reach a ceasefire, especially since negotiations took place in the Gulf Arab country Qatar.
The United Arab Emirates, which normalised relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords in 2020, called the Israeli attack on Doha "blatant and cowardly".
Abu Dhabi was already angry over an Israeli minister's plan for annexation in the Israeli-occupied West Bank, saying that was a red line that cannot be crossed.
Regional power Saudi Arabia denounced what it called a "brutal Israeli aggression" against Qatar's sovereignty.By any standard, Israel is a rogue state.
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Israel targets Hamas leadership in military strikes on Qatar, officials say
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Comment on The troubling decline in conscientiousness [especially in younger Americans] in ~life
thearctic (edited )Link ParentI don't think we're disagreeing on what the article is literally saying. There is a standard deviation in personality within a population of adults (x). The article cites other research showing...I don't think we're disagreeing on what the article is literally saying. There is a standard deviation in personality within a population of adults (x). The article cites other research showing that personality in adulthood of any given individual changes, on average, by x/10 per decade. The article also states that x/10 is about the observed difference, on average, of any given individual's personality change from before the pandemic and 2021-2022 in extroversion, openness, agreeableness, and conscientiousness. Whether you consider change in personality in adulthood, measured by decade, conceptually significant is the debate. Unless I'm missing something?
In either case, it seems like a bit of a moot point since this is only being used to motivate further study. If you feel the PLOS study is being dishonest in some way, then fair. But, I would say the PLOS study is saying something at least somewhat interesting.
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Comment on Most Ukrainians now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has dropped sharply since the early days of the conflict in ~society
thearctic Link ParentCurrent support is insufficient, and I'm skeptical that Europe will go all in on supporting Ukraine after the US starts to bow out, even if they're fairly ideologically unified.Current support is insufficient, and I'm skeptical that Europe will go all in on supporting Ukraine after the US starts to bow out, even if they're fairly ideologically unified.
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Comment on Most Ukrainians now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has dropped sharply since the early days of the conflict in ~society
thearctic Link ParentUnless it becomes a war of attrition between the West as a whole and Russia, Russia has the natural resources, productive capacity, and manpower to outlast Ukraine. The loss in Soviet equipment I...Unless it becomes a war of attrition between the West as a whole and Russia, Russia has the natural resources, productive capacity, and manpower to outlast Ukraine. The loss in Soviet equipment I think is only a medium term problem for Russia. With enough time, the investments they've made into modernizing their equipment will bear fruit. One could argue that the longer conflict continues, the more pressure there will be on the regime. But, the war is by most accounts still popular in Russia, and, even if it weren't, power has been consolidated enough such that they'll be able to continue the war for a long time regardless.
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Comment on Most Ukrainians now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has dropped sharply since the early days of the conflict in ~society
thearctic Link ParentThe "as soon as possible" bit is also very important. Of course, the Ukrainians don't want to fold on points they don't have to, but I think it's accurate to say that support for the war is a...The "as soon as possible" bit is also very important. Of course, the Ukrainians don't want to fold on points they don't have to, but I think it's accurate to say that support for the war is a fraction of what it was before.
The frustrating element to me is that, to do an effective off-ramp, Ukrainian morale needs to stay high and they need maintain an assertive posture. It's also the case that, in a war of attrition, Russia will take more and more of Ukraine.
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Comment on Most Ukrainians now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has dropped sharply since the early days of the conflict in ~society
thearctic LinkMore than three years into the war, Ukrainians’ support for continuing to fight until victory has hit a new low. In Gallup’s most recent poll of Ukraine — conducted in early July — 69% say they favor a negotiated end to the war as soon as possible, compared with 24% who support continuing to fight until victory.
This marks a nearly complete reversal from public opinion in 2022, when 73% favored Ukraine fighting until victory and 22% preferred that Ukraine seek a negotiated end as soon as possible.
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Most Ukrainians now favor ending the war with Russia through negotiations, as support for fighting until victory has dropped sharply since the early days of the conflict
30 votes -
Comment on UN-backed experts declare famine in and around Gaza City in ~society
thearctic LinkAn “entirely man-made” famine is taking place in Gaza’s largest city and its surrounding area amid deteriorating conditions that threaten an exponential increase in deaths across the devastated territory, UN-backed experts have declared.
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UN-backed experts declare famine in and around Gaza City
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Donald Trump shock spurs Japan to think about the unthinkable: nuclear arms
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Comment on The troubling decline in conscientiousness [especially in younger Americans] in ~life
thearctic (edited )Link ParentIn the body of the PLOS study, they note that "that personality changes, on average, about one-tenth of a standard deviation per decade of adulthood". If it's observed that an entire population...In the body of the PLOS study, they note that "that personality changes, on average, about one-tenth of a standard deviation per decade of adulthood". If it's observed that an entire population experienced a personality change equivalent to a decade of individual personality development, that's arguably pretty significant. To determine whether a statistically significant result is conceptually significant requires some familiarity with the subject itself, which differs between biology and population-level social psychology.
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Comment on The troubling decline in conscientiousness [especially in younger Americans] in ~life
thearctic Link ParentAre you referring the the PLOS study? The article refers to that to say that, back in 2022, there were warning signs. The conclusions of the article and the graphs refer to a longitudinal survey...Are you referring the the PLOS study? The article refers to that to say that, back in 2022, there were warning signs. The conclusions of the article and the graphs refer to a longitudinal survey from USC.
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Comment on The troubling decline in conscientiousness [especially in younger Americans] in ~life
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The troubling decline in conscientiousness [especially in younger Americans]
42 votes
The term "conspiracy theory" and how it's used bothers me. A conspiracy is when people conspire to do something bad. A conspiracy theory is a theory of a conspiracy, and conspiracies of some form or another occur all the time. When someone is charged with conspiracy to commit a crime, the legal system is engaged in "conspiracy theories" before a ruling is made.
Politics is no exception. Iran-Contra was a conspiracy. Watergate was a conspiracy. It's almost certainly the case that the Trump administration has conspired to cover up what really happened with Jeffrey Epstein, for whichever reason. Before it's fully known what has happened, and, indeed, to do an investigation that holds people accountable, one must be ready to engage with "conspiracy theories".
The problem, of course, is that some people take it too far. I feel like there should be a completely separate term to describe theories like "the world is run by illuminati, free-mason lizard-people" or "the moon landing was a hoax". Perhaps the rough test of whether you're entertaining plausible theories of conspiracy or are going off the deep end should be how parsimonious you are in your analysis. Is it that the body of existing evidence is damning enough that it would imparsimonious to reject the possibility of conspiracy?