thearctic's recent activity
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Comment on Humans might need to re-engineer the climate in ~enviro
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Comment on Humans might need to re-engineer the climate in ~enviro
thearctic (edited )Link ParentTo add, the extent to which climate change will change things but still leave a good amount of global "aggregate utility" in some function (situations where a function has become less suitable in...To add, the extent to which climate change will change things but still leave a good amount of global "aggregate utility" in some function (situations where a function has become less suitable in one area, but more suitable in another), geoengineering, I would think, would introduce a lot of uncertainty into modeling that would make it much harder for policymakers, societies, and markets to adapt. It's my general, non-expert view that the most disastrous scenarios involving climate change will have to do with societies being unable to adapt and conflicts emerging from it—not necessarily a loss in global aggregate utility in a crucial area (that's not to say it would not be optimal to prevent the causes of climate change, it definitely would be since policymakers and societies aren't very adaptable and societies to some extent have a right to not change if they don't want to).
That being said, I'm not completely opposed to mechanical solutions like mirrors to reflect the sun. This would seem especially useful if deployed to slow feedback loops like between ice melt and local heating.
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Comment on What do I do if I don't have any clothes? in ~life.style
thearctic LinkSome very simple advice for a male wardrobe: get a few nice, well-fitting pants (chinos, jeans). Maybe add a light, casual jacket. This alone will significantly level up your outfits and make...Some very simple advice for a male wardrobe: get a few nice, well-fitting pants (chinos, jeans). Maybe add a light, casual jacket. This alone will significantly level up your outfits and make things look more deliberate.
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Comment on Startups want to geoengineer a cooler planet. With few rules, experts see big risks. in ~enviro
thearctic (edited )Link ParentThe very conceptual foundation of it being engineering IMO already makes it an issue. Engineering a "better" climate, as opposed to implementing policies better for the health of the biosphere,...The very conceptual foundation of it being engineering IMO already makes it an issue. Engineering a "better" climate, as opposed to implementing policies better for the health of the biosphere, inherently implies hyperdynamic strategies focused solely around calibrating a narrow set of variables to a desired range. If it were anything else, it simply wouldn't be understood to be engineering. Polluting the air with SO2 just to reflect sunlight is extremely shortsighted, and there's a reason why, in Atlantic shipping, regulations were put in place against it.
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Comment on Anyone here suffering from low testosterone? in ~health
thearctic Link ParentI would wait to see what the endocrinologist recommends. I'd also recommend to more or less stick to their guidance and not to shop around too much for opinions.I would wait to see what the endocrinologist recommends. I'd also recommend to more or less stick to their guidance and not to shop around too much for opinions.
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Comment on Anyone here suffering from low testosterone? in ~health
thearctic (edited )Link ParentI won't say exactly for privacy, but disclaimer: I am not an expert.I won't say exactly for privacy, but disclaimer: I am not an expert.
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Comment on Anyone here suffering from low testosterone? in ~health
thearctic (edited )LinkThis is an area where the power of suggestion (ie. nocebo) has a dramatic effect. There's even an extent to which this can have downstream effects on your actual hormones (feelings of pride raise...This is an area where the power of suggestion (ie. nocebo) has a dramatic effect. There's even an extent to which this can have downstream effects on your actual hormones (feelings of pride raise testosterone, feelings of shame reduce it). Supplementing testosterone is potentially dangerous, and it doesn't seem like a direct measure of health and vitality. Your testosterone will begin to drop as you age and, unlike women and estrogen, it's a gradual and steady reduction over the course of your life after peak sexual maturity. The most important things you can focus on are getting quality and consistent sleep (!!), exercising regularly, eating whole foods, and avoiding putting yourself in a state of chronic mental stress.
There is something going on at the population level with respect to male sexual health that's concerning (ex. worldwide drops in sperm count), but I don't think the answer at the individual level is to start taking T.
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Comment on Israeli missiles hit site in Iran in ~news
thearctic LinkInteresting follow-up from a few minutes ago: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/no-missile-attack-against-iran-iranian-official-tells-reuters-2024-04-19/Interesting follow-up from a few minutes ago:
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Comment on Childhood loneliness linked to later psychosis in ~health.mental
thearctic LinkCan't comment on this research, but wanted to take the opportunity to say that the smallest bit of reaching out to an extremely lonely person will have a dramatic effect on their well-being. Small...Can't comment on this research, but wanted to take the opportunity to say that the smallest bit of reaching out to an extremely lonely person will have a dramatic effect on their well-being. Small things can really compound and fester in your mind during long periods of loneliness.
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Looking for non-political content
Every now and then, I need, or at least am drawn to, something to turn my brain off for a bit. For some reason, this is often political content for me, which probably isn't healthy. Was wondering...
Every now and then, I need, or at least am drawn to, something to turn my brain off for a bit. For some reason, this is often political content for me, which probably isn't healthy. Was wondering if you guys had any recommendations for content creators that upload fairly regularly about non-political, not-super-deep stuff.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of April 1 in ~news
thearctic (edited )Link ParentI can't see the sense in this sentiment, when there are serious and plausible alternative hypotheses to contend with. Netanyahu has made explicitly clear his plans for a greater Israel, and he...You say they’re “not dumb” and that’s certainly true in some ways. Maybe it makes you wonder what they’re really up to? That’s fine, I wonder about that too. But better to leave that question open than to substitute your own reasoning to answer it.
I can't see the sense in this sentiment, when there are serious and plausible alternative hypotheses to contend with. Netanyahu has made explicitly clear his plans for a greater Israel, and he gave a presentation with maps to the UN stating so.
I don't see the October 7th attack from Hamas at all as irrational. Their goal was to sabotage the Abraham Accords by revitalizing the Islamic world's opposition against Israel, and they got exactly that.
It also fails pretty badly for religious beliefs, which often look pretty silly from the outside, and yet, it’s a mistake to assume people don’t believe their own religion.
Rationality should always be defined with respect to an endpoint. Actors are irrational if they fail to properly assess what gets them further or closer to their endpoint. Religious people can still be "rational" towards the end of achieving peace of mind, having a sense of community, and preserving culture and tradition (especially when those things are privileged over, say, the pursuit of scientific knowledge). It would be irrational toward profit-maximization, for instance, to burn a wad of cash.
I believe that Israel believes in deterrence, that by hitting the enemy harder than they hit you, it will deter future attacks.
I think this may potentially be the plurality view among the Israeli populace, but Netanyahu and everyone to the right of him have plans to create a greater Israel and I don't believe they're doing a tit-for-tat deterrence.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of April 1 in ~news
thearctic Link ParentIf Israel is the party that declared it a war to end Hamas and their actions are clearly undermining their war aims, it begs the question if it can really be called a war to end Hamas. The Israeli...If Israel is the party that declared it a war to end Hamas and their actions are clearly undermining their war aims, it begs the question if it can really be called a war to end Hamas. The Israeli regime isn't dumb, so I can't see that their sincere aim is to end Hamas (especially considering Netanyahu's historical support for Hamas to undermine the PA), but to push out the Palestinian population from the Gaza strip.
The difference in what one understands to be their self-interest may confuse an analysis of whether that party is rational and, by extension, whether a motive can be inferred from their actions. But once their understanding of self-interest is understood, I don't think there's any issue there. Putin values autonomy and stemming liberalization of the Russian system over economic prosperity from trading with the West. His decision to invade Ukraine can be understood to be to create a moat against eastward liberalization over, say, a desire for conquest for economic gain.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of April 1 in ~news
thearctic Link ParentThe conflict between Israel and Hamas might be a subset of what is happening, but an explicit aim of Israel at this point seems to be terrorizing the civilian population through collective...The conflict between Israel and Hamas might be a subset of what is happening, but an explicit aim of Israel at this point seems to be terrorizing the civilian population through collective punishment. And that aim in some ways undermines their efforts in a standard war against Hamas alone significantly enough to question whether the situation can be described as being mostly a war. I'd favor "Israeli Invasion of the Gaza Strip" since it's a more general term that encompasses both aspects.
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Comment on Weekly Israel-Hamas war megathread - week of April 1 in ~news
thearctic LinkCould we reconsider titling this as the "Israel-Hamas War"? We don't need to call it a genocide, since there's a whole legal debate over what that term should mean, but it would be much more...Could we reconsider titling this as the "Israel-Hamas War"? We don't need to call it a genocide, since there's a whole legal debate over what that term should mean, but it would be much more accurate to call it something like the "Israeli operation in Gaza" or, as Wikipedia has, the "Israeli Invasion of the Gaza Strip".
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Comment on Half of senior staffers in US Congress are so fed up that they may quit in ~news
thearctic Link ParentWhile I wouldn't be surprised if there were a case for a meaningful partisan difference, conservatives I think are inclined to say everything is fine even when they're not. In terms of the more...While I wouldn't be surprised if there were a case for a meaningful partisan difference, conservatives I think are inclined to say everything is fine even when they're not. In terms of the more objective measure of experiencing "direct insulting or threatening messages or communication", they are indeed very similar between "Democrats (68%) and Republicans (73%)".
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Comment on Noam Chomsky: The false promise of ChatGPT (gifted link) in ~tech
thearctic Link ParentI don't think you need to be an expert in generative AI to discuss its social implications, if you understand it in some consistent way at some level of abstraction and are mindful of what that...I don't think you need to be an expert in generative AI to discuss its social implications, if you understand it in some consistent way at some level of abstraction and are mindful of what that level of abstraction is.
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Comment on Donald Trump's lawyers say it is impossible for him to post bond covering $454 million US civil fraud judgment in ~news
thearctic Link ParentMy bad I misread the ethnicity thing. My concern is that this level of scrutiny isn't being applied to other potentially similar cases (I'm not too familiar with corporate law, but exaggerating...My bad I misread the ethnicity thing.
My concern is that this level of scrutiny isn't being applied to other potentially similar cases (I'm not too familiar with corporate law, but exaggerating asset value I can't imagine is terribly uncommon), and that selective enforcement of the law is generally a very dangerous route for the judicial system. The $168M of lost interest, based on what's described in the article, also seems plainly inaccurate.
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Comment on Donald Trump's lawyers say it is impossible for him to post bond covering $454 million US civil fraud judgment in ~news
thearctic (edited )Link ParentIt's simultaneously true that Trump, and other individuals/organizations that similarly misrepresented their assets, should ideally be held accountable and that this is a politically motivated...It's simultaneously true that Trump, and other individuals/organizations that similarly misrepresented their assets, should ideally be held accountable and that this is a politically motivated case.
An Associated Press analysis of nearly 70 years of civil cases under the law showed that such a penalty has only been imposed a dozen previous times, and Trump’s case stands apart in a significant way: It’s the only big business found that was threatened with a shutdown without a showing of obvious victims and major losses.
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In making her case against Trump, Letitia James called to the stand a lending expert who estimated that Deutsche Bank gave up $168 million in extra interest on its Trump loans, basing his calculations as if Trump never offered a personal guarantee.
But Trump did offer a guarantee, even if his estimate of his personal wealth was exaggerated. In fact, the bank made its own estimates of Trump’s personal wealth, at times lopping billions from Trump’s figures, and still decided to lend to him.
The Deutsche unit making the Trump business loans wasn’t the typical lending unit, but its private wealth division. That group often lends to rich clients not only to earn interest but to help its chances of winning the lucrative business of managing their vast personal investments and getting them to buy other bank services — something that testimony showed Deutsche was clearly hoping to do with the ex-president. [ie. there would have been no effect on the availability of loans to ordinary borrowers]
Expert commentary:
“This is a basically a death penalty for a business,” said Columbia University law professor Eric Talley. “Is he getting his just desserts because of the fraud, or because people don’t like him?”
“This sets a horrible precedent,” said Adam Leitman Bailey, a New York real estate lawyer who once successfully sued a Trump condo building for misrepresenting sales to lure buyers.
“Those who want to see Donald Trump suffer by any means necessary,” he [University of Michigan law professor] said, “risk ignoring the very commitment to a rule of law that they accuse him of flouting.”
[Edit: opposing view] as New York lawyer and Fordham University adjunct law professor Jerry H. Goldfeder put it, “Just because no one is complaining doesn’t mean there hasn’t been a fraud.”
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Comment on An influential economics forum has a troubling surplus of trolls in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentOutright interrupting people I'd say is a bit out of pocket if it's not a small group where people know each other, but raising your hand with the general expectation that the presenter should try...Outright interrupting people I'd say is a bit out of pocket if it's not a small group where people know each other, but raising your hand with the general expectation that the presenter should try to get to you is different.
An important difference from the physical sciences is that there's not the same level of continuity in theory. You're often working with a variety of frameworks and assumptions, and you may be extending upon it in a way that's different from many people in the audience.
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Comment on An influential economics forum has a troubling surplus of trolls in ~finance
thearctic Link ParentA thing to be mindful of: there are a slew of people who call themselves economists who really are just ideologues working at billionaire-funded think tanks, and they aren't taken seriously by...A thing to be mindful of: there are a slew of people who call themselves economists who really are just ideologues working at billionaire-funded think tanks, and they aren't taken seriously by academic economists.
All in all, I don't think even the potentially less chemically invasive strategies should be used except to mitigate runaway phenomena (ex. putting a bunch of mirrors in the Sahara could desertify South America).