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Relatively early 2024 Oscar predictions
I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think the current Oscar race stands:
Picture:
- The Holdovers
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Dune: Part Two
- Barbie
- Past Lives
- The Zone of Interest
- The Killer
- Saltburn
- Anatomy of a Fall
Director:
- Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
- Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
- Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
- Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest
Original Screenplay:
- The Holdovers
- Past Lives
- Saltburn
- Anatomy of a Fall
- May-December
Adapted Screenplay:
- Barbie
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Oppenheimer
- Dune: Part Two
- The Zone of Interest
Lead Actor:
- Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
- Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
- Colman Domingo - Rustin
Lead Actress:
- Margot Robbie - Barbie
- Greta Lee - Past Lives
- Natalie Portman - May-December
- Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
- Annette Bening - Nyad
Supporting Actor:
- Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
- Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ryan Gosling - Barbie
- Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Teo Yoo - Past Lives
Supporting Actress:
- D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
- Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
- Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
- Julianne Moore - May-December
- Rosamund Pike - Saltburn
Cinematography:
- Oppenheimer
- Dune: Part Two
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Killer
- The Zone of Interest
Film Editing:
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Dune: Part Two
- The Holdovers
- The Killer
Sound:
- Oppenheimer
- Dune: Part Two
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- The Killer
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
Original Score:
- Oppenheimer
- Dune: Part Two
- The Zone of Interest
- The Killer
- Past Lives
Original Song:
- "Dance the Night" from Barbie
- "Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
- "More of Us" from Wish
- "Gonna be You" from 80 For Brady
- Original Song from Wonka
Production Design:
- Barbie
- Dune: Part Two
- Oppenheimer
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Wonka
Costume Design:
- Barbie
- Oppenheimer
- Dune: Part Two
- Wonka
- Killers of the Flower Moon
Hair and Make-up:
- Oppenheimer
- Dune: Part Two
- Guaridans of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Renfield
- Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
VFX:
- Dune: Part Two
- Oppenheimer
- Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
- Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
- Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves
Animated Feature:
- Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
- How Do You Live?
- Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
- Wish
- Nimona
Mario is missing in your animated feature. That one is winning.
Nah. Spider-Verse would win even if Mario did get nominated. The academy doesn't like Illumination (the only one they've nominated is Despicable Me 2). It's just something they turn up their nose at.
I remember when spider-verse was against Wreck it Ralph 2... and normally Disney wins, so they shipped the DVD display case w/ a "Oscar award winning" badge before the Oscars aired, that could be removed if they didn't.
That's funny. Especially since if a Disney movie was gonna win that year it would have been Incredibles 2.
I'd actually be amazed if nobody from Dune Part Two got even a token nomination for the acting categories.
Didn't happen with the first Dune. Even The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King didn't get any acting nominations. It's just not the type of movie that the acting branch likes.
Very reasonable predictions. The only one I'd really feel safe putting my money on this early is 80 for Brady — wouldn't be an Oscar race if you didn't have to drag yourself through a movie for a Diane Warren song...
I guess it's impossible to make any real predictions until the submissions are out, but any early guesses on International Feature?
Zone of Interest, Anatomy of a Fall and that’s it. Last year I thought about Close and EO early on but nothing has struck me as being anything like that so far.