Golden Globe noms will be coming out next week. They recently changed a rule that each category now has six nominees instead of five (boo!). These are the only categories listed on Goldderby so that's all I'm gonna be predicting (Original Score and Original Song are the two categories not listed). Here's where I think the nominations will land:

Motion Picture - Drama

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Maestro
4. All of Us Strangers
5. Anatomy of a Fall
6. Past Lives

Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Poor Things
4. American Fiction
5. The Color Purple
6. May December

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Yorgos Lanthimos - Poor Things
4. Greta Gerwig - Barbie
5. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
6. Bradley Cooper - Maestro

Screenplay

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Poor Things
6. American Fiction

Lead Actor - Drama

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Andrew Scott - All of Us Strangers
5. Adam Driver - Ferrari
6. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Lead Actress - Drama

1. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Cailee Spaeny - Priscilla
3. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
4. Carey Mulligan - Maestro
5. Annette Bening - Nyad
6. Greta Lee - Past Lives

Lead Actor - Musical or Comedy

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Jeffrey Wright - American Fiction
3. Timothee Chalamet - Wonka
4. Nicolas Cage - Dream Scenario
5. Matt Damon - Air
6. Peter Dinklage - She Came To Me

Lead Actress - Musical or Comedy

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
3. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple
4. Natalie Portman - May December
5. Julia Louis Dreyfus - You Hurt My Feelings
6. Jennifer Lawrence - No Hard Feelings

Supporting Actor - Any Motion Picture:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Mark Ruffalo - Poor Things
4. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Charles Melton - May December
6. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
3. Julianne Moore - May December
4. Danielle Brooks - The Color Purple
5. Penelope Cruz - Ferrari
6. America Ferrera - Barbie

I just realized I haven't made a full post with Oscar predictions since January (did one for the Globes and one for the Guild). Well now that we're half-way through the year, here's where I think the current Oscar race stands:

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Anatomy of a Fall

Director:

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. Anatomy of a Fall
5. May-December

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
2. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May-December
4. Sandra Huller - Anatomy of a Fall
5. Annette Bening - Nyad

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Teo Yoo - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D'avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May-December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Cinematography:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. The Zone of Interest

Film Editing:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Holdovers
5. The Killer

Sound:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. The Killer
5. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One

Original Score:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. The Zone of Interest
4. The Killer
5. Past Lives

Original Song:

1. "Dance the Night" from Barbie
2. "Quiet Eyes" from Past Lives
3. "More of Us" from Wish
4. "Gonna be You" from 80 For Brady
5. Original Song from Wonka

Production Design:

1. Barbie
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Oppenheimer
4. Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Wonka

Costume Design:

1. Barbie
2. Oppenheimer
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Wonka
5. Killers of the Flower Moon

Hair and Make-up:

1. Oppenheimer
2. Dune: Part Two
3. Guaridans of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Renfield
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

VFX:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Oppenheimer
3. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3
4. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part One
5. Dungeons and Dragons: Honor Among Thieves

Animated Feature:

1. Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse
2. How Do You Live?
3. Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem
4. Wish
5. Nimona

For those of you who are new I usually post awards predictions from time to time. Some people seem to like it, at least when it was just a handful of active users.

Anyways these are predictions I currently have for “the guilds” meaning industry awards that are not the Oscar’s. Segmented by different unions. They usually are more populist than the Academy, due to many members being from the TV and commercial world. Whenever there’s an artsy contender that they avoid, the Academy nominates it anyway (Drive My Car, Triangle of Sadness, Phantom Thread being some recent examples that come to mind).

Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA):

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Barbie
6. Past Lives
7. The Zone of Interest
8. The Killer
9. Saltburn
10. Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning - Part 1

Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA):

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villenueve - Dune: Part Two
5. Greta Gerwig - Barbie

Writers Guild of America Awards (WGA):

Original:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Saltburn
4. May/December
5. Air

Adapted:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Dune: Part Two
5. The Killer

Screen Actor’s Guild Awards (SAG):

Ensemble:

1. The Holdovers
2. Barbie
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Color Purple

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Colman Domingo - Rustin
5. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Zendaya - Challengers
5. Fantasia Barrino - The Color Purple

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
3. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. John Magaro - Past Lives
5. Dominic Sessa - The Holdovers

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Taraji P. Henson - The Color Purple

American Cinema Editors Awards (ACE):

Comedic Editing:

1. Barbie
2. The Holdovers
3. Next Goal Wins
4. Poor Things
5. No Hard Feelings

Dramatic Editing:

1. Dune: Part Two
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Oppenheimer
4. Past Lives
5. The Killer

Picture:

1. The Holdovers
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. Past Lives
6. Barbie
7. The Zone of Interest
8. May/December
9. Saltburn
10. The Killer

Director:

1. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
2. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
3. Alexander Payne - The Holdovers
4. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part 2
5. Jonathan Glazer - The Zone of Interest

Original Screenplay:

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. May/December
4. Saltburn
5. Drive Away Dolls

Adapted Screenplay:

1. Barbie
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part 2
4. Oppenheimer
5. The Zone of Interest

Lead Actor:

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
3. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Barry Keoghan - Saltburn
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress:

1. Margot Robbie - Barbie
2. Greta Lee - Past Lives
3. Natalie Portman - May/December
4. Annette Bening - Nyad
5. Zendaya - Challengers

Supporting Actor:

1. Robert Downey Jr. - Oppenheimer
2. Robert DeNiro - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Ryan Gosling - Barbie
4. Jesse Plemmons - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. John Magaro - Past Lives

Supporting Actress:

1. D’avine Joy Randolph - The Holdovers
2. Lilly Gladstone - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Emily Blunt - Oppenheimer
4. Julianne Moore - May/December
5. Rosamund Pike - Saltburn

Picture: Everything Everywhere All At Once

It swept the guilds. Last movie to do that was Birdman. I don’t even know what would win in its place anymore. All Quiet on the Western Front? Nah that’s missing too many things. EEAAO’s got this in the bag.

Director: Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert - Everything Everywhere All At Once

DGA winners, next.

Original Screenplay: Everything Everywhere All At Once written by Daniel Kwan & Daniel Scheinert

I want to predict Banshees winning at least here. But Three Billboards was a stronger movie (it won Globe Drama, SAG Ensemble, and BAFTA Film) and McDonagh lost to Get Out and EEAAO has way more passion.

Adapted Screenplay: All Quiet on the Western Front screenplay by Edward Berger, Ian Stokell, Lesley Paterson. Based on the novel by Erich Maria Remarque.

BAFTA has been way more accurate at “predicting” the winner in this category than either Critic’s Choice or WGA. Women Talking only has two nominations, was 10th in Picture, and didn’t even get a BAFTA nomination. So I think the stronger movie here will win.

Lead Actor: Austin Butler - Elvis

BAFTA + Globe is a hell of a combo. Fraser would be his biggest competition but the last actor to win for a movie that was not in Picture was Jeff Bridges.

Lead Actress: Cate Blanchett - TÁR

Ditto. Yeoh could win here, but Globe and BAFTA has proved an unbeatable combo in recent years.

Supporting Actress: Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin

BAFTA winner again. Bassett was a red herring, Curtis would be a weak winner and has been annoyingly campaigning all season. Mark Rylance went on to win the Oscar for Bridge of Spies after only having won BAFTA in a similarly divided field.

Supporting Actor: Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once

He lost BAFTA, but he was the one constant winner in this category. If EEAAO walks away with only one acting award, it’ll be this one.

Animated Feature: Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

Swept.

International Feature: All Quiet on the Western Front

Only Picture nominee.

Documentary: Navalny

PGA + BAFTA winner.

Original Score: All Quiet on the Western Front

Kind of an open category. Babylon won the Globe, but All Quiet won BAFTA. Any of the nominees could potentially win. But I’ll stay safe and stick with the BAFTA winner.

Original Song: Naatu Naatu from RRR

Nobody seems to care about any of the other songs. RRR has the passion. Although I can see the case for any of the other nominees winning.

Sound: Top Gun: Maverick

Locked.

Production Design: Babylon

Swept, locked.

Cinematography: Elvis

It’s the only movie to meet all the statistical requirements. It got nominated at all the precursors. It got a production design nomination. And it won at the cinematographer’s guild. It’s also really colorful and flashy. All Quiet would be the closest competition, but that missed a nomination at the guild. This should be Top Gun’s award, but oh well.

Makeup and Hairstyling: Elvis

Swept.

Costume Design: Elvis

Won BAFTA. Black Panther would be its closest competition but that lost at the guild to EEAAO. Elvis fits the stats better (production design nom).

Film Editing: Top Gun: Maverick

EEAAO has so far swept these awards, winning BAFTA, ACE Comedy, and Critic’s Choice. However, there is a strong correlation between sound and film editing. The last film editing winner to win without winning Sound was Argo, which still had sound nominations which EEAAO does not have. The last film editing winner without a sound nomination was Traffik in 2002. EEAAO could buck the trend, as it will be a Picture winner just like Argo. But, I’m sticking with the sound stat. Last year Dune did not win a single film editing award, but it won the Oscar due to the correlation. And Top Gun at least has ACE Drama, which is the only precursor Bohemian Rhapsody had before it went on to win the Oscar.

Visual Effects: Avatar: The Way of Water

Swept.

Animated Short: The Boy, The Mole, The Fox, and the Horse

Live-Action Short: Le Pupille

Documentary Short: The Elephant Whisperers

This current season is not over yet, but with a new year comes new movies and new awards predictions. These were the early predictions last year. These are earlier however, so let’s see how it goes this time. I’m only doing a few major categories.

Picture

1. The Holdovers
2. Oppenheimer
3. Killers of the Flower Moon
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Past Lives
6. Maestro
7. Poor Things
8. Blitz
9. May-December
10. The Killer

Director

1. Christopher Nolan - Oppenheimer
2. Martin Scorsese - Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Denis Villeneuve - Dune: Part Two
4. Celine Song - Past Lives
5. Todd Haynes - May-December

Original Screenplay

1. The Holdovers
2. Past Lives
3. Oppenheimer
4. May-December
5. Maestro

Adapted Screenplay

1. Poor Things
2. Killers of the Flower Moon
3. Dune: Part Two
4. The Killer
5. Rustin

Lead Actor

1. Paul Giamatti - The Holdovers
2. Bradley Cooper - Maestro
3. Cillian Murphy - Oppenheimer
4. Leonardo DiCaprio - Killers of the Flower Moon
5. Colman Domingo - Rustin

Lead Actress

1. Saoirsa Ronan - Blitz
2. Emma Stone - Poor Things
3. Greta Lee - Past Lives
4. Natalie Portman - May-December
5. Carrie Mulligan - Maestro

For me, as much as I didn’t care for the film, This is a Life from EEAAO getting into original song would make me incredibly happy. It’s such a good song and indie songs like it rarely get nominated.

Another one would be Glass Onion getting into Supporting Actress and Costumes.

pending

Picture

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Top Gun: Maverick
6. Elvis
7. Avatar: The Way of Water
8. The Whale
9. All Quiet on the Western Front
10. Triangle of Sadness

Director

1. Steven Spielberg - The Fabelmans
2. Daniels - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Martin McDonagh - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Todd Field - TÁR
5. Edward Berger - All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Screenplay

1. The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. TÁR
4. The Fabelmans
5. Triangle of Sadness

Adapted Screenplay

1. All Quiet on the Western Front
2. The Whale
3. Living
4. Glass Onion
5. Women Talking

Lead Actor

1. Colin Farrell - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Brendan Fraser - The Whale
3. Austin Butler - Elvis
4. Bill Nighy - Living
5. Hugh Jackman - The Son

Lead Actress

1. Cate Blanchett - TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Ana De Armas - Blonde
4. Danielle Deadwyler - Till
5. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans

Best Supporting Actor

1. Kerry Condon - The Banshees of Inisherin
2. Angela Bassett - Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
3. Jamie Lee Curtis - Everything Everywhere All At Once
4. Hong Chau - The Whale
5. Dolly De Leon - Triangle of Sadness

Best Supporting Actor

1. Ke Huy Quan - Everything Everywhere All At Once
2. Brendan Gleeson - The Banshees of Inisherin
3. Barry Keoghan - The Banshees of Inisherin
4. Paul Dano - The Fabelmans
5. Eddie Redmayne - The Good Nurse

Cinematography

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. The Batman
3. Empire of Light
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Costume Design

1. Elvis
2. Babylon
3. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
4. Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris
5. The Fabelmans

Film Editing

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Elvis
4. The Banshees of Inisherin
5. TÁR

Makeup and Hairstyling

1. The Whale
2. Elvis
3. Babylon
4. The Batman
5. Black Panther: Wakanda Forever

Production Design

1. Babylon
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. The Fabelmans
4. Elvis
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Score

1. Babylon
2. The Banshees of Inisherin
3. The Fabelmans
4. Pinocchio
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Original Song

1. Naatu Naatu - RRR
2. Hold My Hand - Top Gun: Maverick
3. Ciao Papa - Pinocchio
4. Applause - Tell it Like a Woman
5. This is a Life - Everything Everywhere All At Once

Sound

1. Top Gun: Maverick
2. Avatar: The Way of Water
3. Elvis
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

VFX

1. Avatar: The Way of Water
2. Top Gun: Maverick
3. Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness
4. The Batman
5. All Quiet on the Western Front

Animated Feature

1. Pinocchio
2. Turning Red
3. Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
4. Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
5. Inu-Oh

Documentary

1. All The Beauty and the Bloodshed
2. Fire of Love
3. All That Breathes
4. Moonage Daydream
5. Descendant

International Film

1. All Quiet on the Western Front (Germany)
2. Decision to Leave (South Korea)
3. Saint Omer (France)
4. The Quiet Girl (Ireland)
5. EO (Poland)