Not super familiar with French politics, but it looks like a fairly likely Macron win right now, no? 4 point margin over Le Pen, and I'd imagine the vast majority of Melechon's share will go to...
Not super familiar with French politics, but it looks like a fairly likely Macron win right now, no? 4 point margin over Le Pen, and I'd imagine the vast majority of Melechon's share will go to Macron.
Perhaps uncomfortably close, and the demographics extra troubling, since it's predominantly young voters shifting towards Le Pen and the far right (they're not going to age out of politics!), but seems like the crisis is for now likely punted to another election cycle.
Many Mélenchon voters are likely to stay home instead of voting for Macron. So it's definitely not won for Macron yet. He's got a good advantage, that's true, but I'll only be relieved when it's over.
Not super familiar with French politics, but it looks like a fairly likely Macron win right now, no? 4 point margin over Le Pen, and I'd imagine the vast majority of Melechon's share will go to Macron.
Many Mélenchon voters are likely to stay home instead of voting for Macron. So it's definitely not won for Macron yet. He's got a good advantage, that's true, but I'll only be relieved when it's over.
There’s a decent graph in the article that shows numbers with a high amount of abstention among melenchon voters. Personally I think Macron’s war bump will be more than enough to compensate for...
There’s a decent graph in the article that shows numbers with a high amount of abstention among melenchon voters.
Personally I think Macron’s war bump will be more than enough to compensate for this. We usually have high abstention rates in the second round but I suspect this year will be lower than usual due to the war. I might be wrong.
Either way i also think this is a very comfortable macron win.
Yea, what's up with that?: When did that happen? The young flowing towards the right? Anyone know the story, here? Did Macron do something to piss off young voters?
Perhaps uncomfortably close, and the demographics extra troubling, since it's predominantly young voters shifting towards Le Pen and the far right (they're not going to age out of politics!)
I mean, to me the french political landscape looks like a clusterfuck, unless you like liberalism or right-wing fuckery. I can easily imagine, with unemployment high among younger voters, that...
I mean, to me the french political landscape looks like a clusterfuck, unless you like liberalism or right-wing fuckery. I can easily imagine, with unemployment high among younger voters, that those voters turn to extreme political agendas. That's not great, but who are you going to vote for? Left-wing anti-EU populists? The young left, at least in Germany, is highly pro-EU. So you get the choice of a Pro-EU liberal, an anti-EU socialist and an anti-EU nationalist. Liberalism doesn't exactly poll well with disenfranchised people (I would think), anti-EU sentiment and socialism don't really go together very well, so the only platform here that actually can consistently motivate people to go out and vote is anti-EU nationalism.
Keep in mind I have no idea of French politics except the firefighters vs police riot memes, but I imagine the details of macroscopic voting behavior are only loosely tied to individual nations.
Oh, and few of the top-level parties are more than a decade old. What's up with that?
When he won five years ago, Macron completely changed the political landscape in France. His victory essentially killed parties, they had to merge or revamp themselves. Most of them are just...
Oh, and few of the top-level parties are more than a decade old. What's up with that?
When he won five years ago, Macron completely changed the political landscape in France. His victory essentially killed parties, they had to merge or revamp themselves.
Most of them are just rebrandings, too. The "Rassemblement National" (Le Pen) was rebranded in 2018, but it's actually the 50-year-old "Front National", she just wanted to make it sound less nazi.
Les Républicains (2015) is none other than the UMP (2002), which itself was a union of multiple smaller parties at the time.
Our runoff system leads to smaller parties. Instead of big organisms that live a long time, we have smaller organisms that live, reproduce and die much quicker. Ants vs elephants. (I'm of the opinion that this is healthier)
Not from France, but what I’m getting from most media is: It’s not that he pissed them off per se, he simply didn’t do enough for these groups. Rising costs (food, rent, gas) are contributing...
Not from France, but what I’m getting from most media is: It’s not that he pissed them off per se, he simply didn’t do enough for these groups. Rising costs (food, rent, gas) are contributing there as well.
French election: Le Pen angered by protest over ties to Putin The video of the tackling of the protestor is pretty brutal, IMO, especially considering how mild her protest was. And it definitely...
The video of the tackling of the protestor is pretty brutal, IMO, especially considering how mild her protest was. And it definitely looks like she was unconscious when they dragged her away.
Le Pen's response is fucking disgusting too.
"What people should be outraged about is that we can't hold a second-round campaign without press conferences being disrupted, without us being attacked, without us being threatened," Ms Le Pen complained.
"being attacked"? All she did was hold up a fucking heart-shaped sign with a picture of you and Putin on it, a picture that you yourself had printed on campaign material before deciding to pull it from circulation after Russia invaded Ukraine. She then got tackled, possibly knocked out, and dragged out of the room like a sack of potatoes. Who is the one really "being attacked" in this scenario!?
Mediapart published extracts from the new report by OLAF into expenses that political groups can make as part of their mandate as MEPs.
The agency accuses Le Pen and others of having used the funds for national political purposes, personal expenses or for services that would benefit commercial companies close to her National Rally party and the far-right parliamentary group, Europe of Nations and Freedom (ENF).
The report points the finger at Le Pen and three other former members of the European parliament including her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen, her ex-partner Louis Aliot and former far-right MEP Bruno Gollnisch.
The body accuses the four of having embezzled around 600,000 euros ($650,000), which it recommends they repay.
According to the report, Le Pen personally embezzled around 137,000 euros ($150,000) worth of public money from the Strasbourg parliament when she was an MEP between 2004 and 2017.
"I'm surprised by the timing of such a strong disclosure" and the "instrumentalisation", Le Pen's lawyer, Rodolphe Bosselut, told AFP.
Bosselut said he was "dismayed by the way that OLAF (European Anti-Fraud Office) is acting", insisting that some of the report related to "old facts more than ten years old".
He added that Le Pen "has not been summoned by any French judicial authority" and slammed the failure to send him or Le Pen the final report.
The investigation by OLAF was opened in 2016, Bosselut said, and Le Pen was questioned in writing by post in March 2021.
The Paris public prosecutor's office confirmed to AFP that it had received the report on March 11, which it was currently assessing.
Not super familiar with French politics, but it looks like a fairly likely Macron win right now, no? 4 point margin over Le Pen, and I'd imagine the vast majority of Melechon's share will go to Macron.
Perhaps uncomfortably close, and the demographics extra troubling, since it's predominantly young voters shifting towards Le Pen and the far right (they're not going to age out of politics!), but seems like the crisis is for now likely punted to another election cycle.
Knock on wood, hopefully no jinxing.
Many Mélenchon voters are likely to stay home instead of voting for Macron. So it's definitely not won for Macron yet. He's got a good advantage, that's true, but I'll only be relieved when it's over.
There’s a decent graph in the article that shows numbers with a high amount of abstention among melenchon voters.
Personally I think Macron’s war bump will be more than enough to compensate for this. We usually have high abstention rates in the second round but I suspect this year will be lower than usual due to the war. I might be wrong.
Either way i also think this is a very comfortable macron win.
Definitely hope you're right 😊
Yea, what's up with that?:
When did that happen? The young flowing towards the right? Anyone know the story, here? Did Macron do something to piss off young voters?
I mean, to me the french political landscape looks like a clusterfuck, unless you like liberalism or right-wing fuckery. I can easily imagine, with unemployment high among younger voters, that those voters turn to extreme political agendas. That's not great, but who are you going to vote for? Left-wing anti-EU populists? The young left, at least in Germany, is highly pro-EU. So you get the choice of a Pro-EU liberal, an anti-EU socialist and an anti-EU nationalist. Liberalism doesn't exactly poll well with disenfranchised people (I would think), anti-EU sentiment and socialism don't really go together very well, so the only platform here that actually can consistently motivate people to go out and vote is anti-EU nationalism.
Keep in mind I have no idea of French politics except the firefighters vs police riot memes, but I imagine the details of macroscopic voting behavior are only loosely tied to individual nations.
Oh, and few of the top-level parties are more than a decade old. What's up with that?
When he won five years ago, Macron completely changed the political landscape in France. His victory essentially killed parties, they had to merge or revamp themselves.
Most of them are just rebrandings, too. The "Rassemblement National" (Le Pen) was rebranded in 2018, but it's actually the 50-year-old "Front National", she just wanted to make it sound less nazi.
Les Républicains (2015) is none other than the UMP (2002), which itself was a union of multiple smaller parties at the time.
Our runoff system leads to smaller parties. Instead of big organisms that live a long time, we have smaller organisms that live, reproduce and die much quicker. Ants vs elephants. (I'm of the opinion that this is healthier)
Not from France, but what I’m getting from most media is: It’s not that he pissed them off per se, he simply didn’t do enough for these groups. Rising costs (food, rent, gas) are contributing there as well.
April 24th Update: Le Pen did indeed get trounced pretty hard in the runoff
French election: Le Pen angered by protest over ties to Putin
The video of the tackling of the protestor is pretty brutal, IMO, especially considering how mild her protest was. And it definitely looks like she was unconscious when they dragged her away.
Le Pen's response is fucking disgusting too.
"being attacked"? All she did was hold up a fucking heart-shaped sign with a picture of you and Putin on it, a picture that you yourself had printed on campaign material before deciding to pull it from circulation after Russia invaded Ukraine. She then got tackled, possibly knocked out, and dragged out of the room like a sack of potatoes. Who is the one really "being attacked" in this scenario!?
EU Anti-fraud Body Accuses Marine Le Pen Of Embezzlement
Hey, man. That embezzlement was as much as ten years ago. It's very suspicious that you bring my crimes up now, as I'm running for president.
I love how her lawyer even referred to them as "old facts" and didn't even try to deny any of it. :P