This is turning into a serious geopolitical incident, there is a lot of unrest in Arabic countries and diasporas right now. Abbas has canceled his meeting with Biden amid widespread protests in...
This is turning into a serious geopolitical incident, there is a lot of unrest in Arabic countries and diasporas right now. Abbas has canceled his meeting with Biden amid widespread protests in the West Bank.
There are also several videos that have come out since that have made me re-evaluate my initial thoughts of airstrike and make me think a failed projectile is the more likely cause here. There are videos that appear to show a rocket barrage and then as they are passing over the Gaza strip there is an impact directly below the flight path of the rockets. Nothing conclusive, but a (home made) rocket failing in some fashion and reorienting itself towards the earth would be consistent with the video of the impact that appeared to sound like a high velocity airstrike and look like a rocket impact. FWIW these videos have not been geolocated yet either.
The footage from the Al Jazeera Arabic live YouTube stream from about 5 hours ago shows the failed rocket. After the explosion, you can sort of see the solar panels on top of the building there...
The footage from the Al Jazeera Arabic live YouTube stream from about 5 hours ago shows the failed rocket. After the explosion, you can sort of see the solar panels on top of the building there which look like the ones on the hospital. This tweet pointed it out about 30 minutes ago and you can see them in Google Maps as well.
There have to be a lot of videos of the explosion. Someone is bound to take the time to geolocate all the real footage, disprove the fake and old videos and figure out what happened. There is already a Wikipedia page for the event and a lot of information is being gathered there.
It's really irresponsible how fast the media got on the anti-Israel bandwagon here, especially since the source was Hamas. It's like relying on ISIS for facts.
Somewhat unrelated, but looking at the picture of the hospital in that tweet I suddenly have a better understanding of why it seems like hospitals are being blown up constantly. I always thought...
Somewhat unrelated, but looking at the picture of the hospital in that tweet I suddenly have a better understanding of why it seems like hospitals are being blown up constantly. I always thought it was odd that this small strip of land seemingly has so many hospitals that you don't just run out eventually. But I'm thinking of hospitals as these enormous campuses with hundreds of beds. I guess what passes for a hospital in Gaza is often makeshift clinics with only a handful of beds and exam rooms.
Based on that, the 100s of casualties they usually report when these buildings do get hit suggests that they must be severely overcrowded. I assume they must be setting up tents and cots on the parking lot to hold the overflow, which means almost no protection from. . . well. . . anything.
The median age of Palestinians there is under 20. https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/state-of-palestine-demographics/ "Medics" are literal teenagers applying field dressings, and...
"Medics" are literal teenagers applying field dressings, and frequently are bombed or shot. The median age has actually improved since I became aware of the conflict. It was more like 16-17.
We're talking about over a million children (and another million or so over 19) penned into an open air prison the size of Las Vegas, where potable water is frequently cut off and bombings are frequent.
If you’re going to posit something that dramatic, you should probably back it up with something. Unsubstantiated “concerns” like this serve only to help enable war crimes.
If you’re going to posit something that dramatic, you should probably back it up with something. Unsubstantiated “concerns” like this serve only to help enable war crimes.
Is it really so hard for you to understand why a TERRORIST ORGANIZATION, who places no value on it's own people's lives would lie to boost it's image? As for sources, there are many you could find...
Is it really so hard for you to understand why a TERRORIST ORGANIZATION, who places no value on it's own people's lives would lie to boost it's image?
As for sources, there are many you could find with a simple web search,so I'm just going to copy from a different reply I made in this thread
I'm not saying there are no casualties. In fact it's pretty much implied by what I said that they do exist, but the numbers posted by Hamas are more than likely falsified and inflated.
For example in the 2014 war
Or this article from 2021 showing how the media reports Hamas' oqn numbers without checking or confirming them at all, in both instance it was later realized that people Hamas reported as civilians were actually terrorists.
Add to that Hamas' well known policy of hiding in civilian centers, hospitals and mosques, it's very clear Israel is trying very hard to avoid these casualties.
The numbers may be off but it's unlikely that Isreal bombing only destroys buildings and has no collateral damage. Which ever side you're on, you have to acknowledge that any military campaign is...
The numbers may be off but it's unlikely that Isreal bombing only destroys buildings and has no collateral damage. Which ever side you're on, you have to acknowledge that any military campaign is going to cause the incidental deaths of civilians.
I'm not saying there are no casualties. In fact it's pretty much implied by what I said that they do exist, but the numbers posted by Hamas are more than likely falsified and inflated. For example...
I'm not saying there are no casualties. In fact it's pretty much implied by what I said that they do exist, but the numbers posted by Hamas are more than likely falsified and inflated.
For example in the 2014 war
Or this article from 2021 showing how the media reports Hamas' oqn numbers without checking or confirming them at all, in both instance it was later realized that people Hamas reported as civilians were actually terrorists.
Add to that Hamas' well known policy of hiding in civilian centers, hospitals and mosques, it's very clear Israel is trying very hard to avoid these casualties.
I haven't seen any anti Israel reporting on this (in general the western press is extremely, even rabidly, pro Israel), just a claim that it was an air strike (which it was) and speculation about...
I haven't seen any anti Israel reporting on this (in general the western press is extremely, even rabidly, pro Israel), just a claim that it was an air strike (which it was) and speculation about what causes it (serious consideration of hypotheses that it was an Israeli air strike as well as a Hamas rocket gone awry).
‘Air strike’ implies a strike from an aircraft, not airborne munitions. So I think any headlines calling it an air strike are wildly premature. News organizations in the Twitter (and especially X...
‘Air strike’ implies a strike from an aircraft, not airborne munitions. So I think any headlines calling it an air strike are wildly premature.
News organizations in the Twitter (and especially X revenue sharing) era are heavily incentivized to report on breaking news as quickly as possible and also to fill in the blanks to generate uptake — an awful combination.
Air strike is, in this conflict and location, only consistent with an Israeli aircraft fired munition. If anyone calls this an air strike, they're saying Israel did it, because as far as anyone...
Air strike is, in this conflict and location, only consistent with an Israeli aircraft fired munition. If anyone calls this an air strike, they're saying Israel did it, because as far as anyone knows, no one else operates aircraft in the airspace. Well, that, or their use of that word is so sloppy as to be meaningless.
As far as we know now - from post-hoc damage assessment and the geolocated live-stream of the failed launch overhead - it was not an airstrike.
Adopting the Hamas line, calling it an airstrike and claiming 100s of casualties, one is acting as the mouthpiece of Hamas. They lie all the time. Israel does too, sure, but that doesn't excuse copying the opposing lie.
I'm also not a fan of how news outlets now are adopting an overly neutral line, now that we do have some evidence. The evidence we've seen by now certainly is more credible than a Hamas claim without any evidence except "we're the propaganda arm of a terror organization at war, trust me", but news outlets are more hesitant to assign blame now than when Israel was still getting their evidence together. They're overcorrecting. Should've been the other way around - hedged first, and more confident later.
Headlines do get updated. AP had 'Israel-Hamas war: Israel bombs Gaza where civilians sought refuge' and now changed it to 'Blast kills hundreds at Gaza hospital; Hamas and Israel trade blame, as...
This is bass ackwards. Breaking news is supposed to be heavily hedged and caveated. You get the editorial stances and narrative later once the facts are more clear.
In the past hour or so the headlines have become less biased.
This is bass ackwards. Breaking news is supposed to be heavily hedged and caveated. You get the editorial stances and narrative later once the facts are more clear.
Most major news organizations and discussions about the topic that I saw online immediately said it was an Israeli attack and many many people immediately condemned them for it. Even the President...
Most major news organizations and discussions about the topic that I saw online immediately said it was an Israeli attack and many many people immediately condemned them for it. Even the President made a statement before later retracting it.
Most of the headlines that I saw were very careful to qualify the air-strike claim with a "Locals say" or "Palestinians say". This is pretty standard media hedging in my experience — before...
It's really irresponsible how fast the media got on the anti-Israel bandwagon here, especially since the source was Hamas. It's like relying on ISIS for facts.
Most of the headlines that I saw were very careful to qualify the air-strike claim with a "Locals say" or "Palestinians say". This is pretty standard media hedging in my experience — before something is confirmed the source of the claim is often mentioned in the headline itself as opposed to only in the article itself. That being said this is definitely an area where speed has to be sacrificed for accuracy. And this also highlights why traditional media still has its advantages over faster-responding social media.
“Palestinians officials say” hits very differently from “Hamas officials” say. And in Gaza any time you see the former it’s likely the latter, largely because Hamas has cowed, killed, or exiled...
“Palestinians officials say” hits very differently from “Hamas officials” say. And in Gaza any time you see the former it’s likely the latter, largely because Hamas has cowed, killed, or exiled everyone else.
Yes they are one and the same And Hamas has proven again and again their "political" side only serves to feed and empower their militaristic aspersion. From taking international aid and using it...
Yes they are one and the same
And Hamas has proven again and again their "political" side only serves to feed and empower their militaristic aspersion.
From taking international aid and using it to build rocket, to stealing medicine to heal wounded terrorists and literally taking food from starving population to feed their jihadists .
Hamas never cared for the population of Gaza, they have to be destroyed for the people to have any chance of peace.
Should be noted as well that the Israeli military has said that the scale of the blast does appear to be outside Hamas' capabilities. Link should go to a specific block with the source in the...
Does that link really evidence that? We don't have the original statement here - it's unclear to me whether it's supposed to be: [ this being editorial content, not original from the IDF ] - or:...
Does that link really evidence that?
The Israeli military reportedly said an initial investigation suggested the explosion was caused by a failed Hamas rocket launch, but the scale of the blast appears to be outside the militant group’s capabilities.
We don't have the original statement here - it's unclear to me whether it's supposed to be:
The Israeli military reportedly said "an initial investigation suggested the explosion was caused by a failed Hamas rocket launch", [but the scale of the blast appears to be outside the militant group’s capabilities].
[ this being editorial content, not original from the IDF ] - or:
The Israeli military reportedly said "an initial investigation suggested the explosion was caused by a failed Hamas rocket launch, but the scale of the blast appears to be outside the militant group’s capabilities."
Of course neither version implying a direct quote, just illustrating what part is indirectly quoted.
Apparently several Israeli government accounts that initially posted the video have since edited or removed their posts. Some have speculated that this was because the video itself was from 30...
Apparently several Israeli government accounts that initially posted the video have since edited or removed their posts. Some have speculated that this was because the video itself was from 30 minutes after the reports of the bombing occurred, and although the removal itself doesn't prove anything, it does seem pretty weird. It would also be outside of Hamas' known capabilities for their rockets to create an explosion of this magnitude.
I think there are a lot of explanations for the large impact if we accept the misfire hypothesis; for instance hitting fuel/generators at the hospital or extra propellant left in the rocket since...
I think there are a lot of explanations for the large impact if we accept the misfire hypothesis; for instance hitting fuel/generators at the hospital or extra propellant left in the rocket since it malfunctioned so early.
Extra propellant seems quite plausible. The actual detonation seems to not have been as destructive as the fireball suggests. That's IMO consistent with rocket fuel or other material boosting the...
Extra propellant seems quite plausible. The actual detonation seems to not have been as destructive as the fireball suggests. That's IMO consistent with rocket fuel or other material boosting the fireball. Actual, properly made military warheads tend not to produce a massive fireball; they're usually a very brief flash and then more smoke than fire. This was a fireball that lingered a moment.
The vast majority of short-range missiles use solid rocket motors, which typically burn out in a matter of seconds. The missile reaches its top speed within the first minute, burns out, and then...
The vast majority of short-range missiles use solid rocket motors, which typically burn out in a matter of seconds. The missile reaches its top speed within the first minute, burns out, and then follows a ballistic trajectory to the target. Additionally, you can't extinguish a solid motor once it's lit – if there was any cohesive propellant left after the initial midair explosion you would have seen it burning all the way to the ground, not just a sudden explosion once it hit. Unburnt propellant almost certainly had no effect here unless Hamas is using liquid engines and I would bet money that they're not.
AFAIK it's believed these rockets were long range rockets fired at Tel Aviv as Hamas had made claims they were being launched before the incident. Additionally, while we don't have any details...
AFAIK it's believed these rockets were long range rockets fired at Tel Aviv as Hamas had made claims they were being launched before the incident. Additionally, while we don't have any details about their rocket construction it's known they are heavily improvised and the ability for them to import materials is extremely limited. But ultimately you're right,nothing can be said confidently about the makeup of the rocket.
In the end, I don't know if it matters now that we have images of the impact site. It's certainly in line with similar rocket impacts that have been recorded in Israel.
"Long-Range" is somewhat of a term of art when it comes to missiles. As far as I can tell the longest range capability that Hamas has even claimed (ie it's probably safe to knock this down a fair...
"Long-Range" is somewhat of a term of art when it comes to missiles. As far as I can tell the longest range capability that Hamas has even claimed (ie it's probably safe to knock this down a fair bit) is 250km using their Ayyash-250 which falls squarely within the TBM category, and therefore "short-range."
we don't have any details about their rocket construction it's known they are heavily improvised and the ability for them to import materials is extremely limited.
This is exactly why I'm willing to put money on them not having liquids. There's at least an order of magnitude of difference in complexity and cost; solids are simple by comparison.
Ehh, depends on the perspective. From an artillery perspective, 250km is confidently "long range". From a ballistic missile perspective, it's short-range. As for your overall point that it's...
Ehh, depends on the perspective. From an artillery perspective, 250km is confidently "long range". From a ballistic missile perspective, it's short-range.
As for your overall point that it's unlikely the rocket motor caused the fireball, that I don't contest. While it's possible that some amount of SRB propellant was thrown clear of the burning end of the candle, I don't really believe that. It's much more likely that either the warhead just exploded/burned funny, their improvised warheads never really detonate like "proper" warheads, or the warhead simply ignited something else on the ground. Regardless, many things surrounding the explosion itself are clearly mostly inconsistent with an air strike that wasn't screwed up on multiple levels, from target selection to execution.
Most of the damage seems to have been related to a fire, not an explosion. A missile capable of traveling from Gaza into central Israel has a lot of fuel onboard. One of those crashing before its...
Most of the damage seems to have been related to a fire, not an explosion. A missile capable of traveling from Gaza into central Israel has a lot of fuel onboard. One of those crashing before its burned all its fuel out can produce a very significant blast and fire.
Side note, it appears that Jordan cancelled first. So it's not Biden fearing a meeting with the Arab council but more they chose to cancel the summit and thus there's no reason for Biden to even...
Side note, it appears that Jordan cancelled first. So it's not Biden fearing a meeting with the Arab council but more they chose to cancel the summit and thus there's no reason for Biden to even attempt a visit.
There are more images (SFW, CW: destruction) of the impact today, I think we can rule out any sort of HE bomb today. The United States: "The U.S. has an independent assessment that it was a...
There are moreimages (SFW, CW: destruction) of the impact today, I think we can rule out any sort of HE bomb today.
I’m not sure what happens from here. Most of the Arab states, including UAE, have condemned Israel for the explosion. Hard to see unrest dying down unless they walk that back. This definitely puts a wrench in the ground invasion plans, I think at this point the region is far too primed not to erupt if Israel were to invade today. Perhaps a silver lining in this tragedy.
I'd say it's the opposite effect. It tells Israel that the world is against them regardless of what they do and don't do. So if the world isn't going to listen then why listen themselves. That's...
I'd say it's the opposite effect. It tells Israel that the world is against them regardless of what they do and don't do. So if the world isn't going to listen then why listen themselves. That's the real danger of the anti-Israel at all costs mindset. They have restrained themselves from what they can really do to Gaza, but if people won't accept facts then there's no point in restraint. It could very well be the reason they march the Gazans out instead of a directed Hamas attack.
There's a difference between the Israeli op-eds and the people that actually have to govern and wear the consequences of their actions. The United States has a great deal of leverage here, and we...
There's a difference between the Israeli op-eds and the people that actually have to govern and wear the consequences of their actions.
The United States has a great deal of leverage here, and we can already see they have been applying it. The United States absolutely does not want to step into a regional war here, something it would have to do if this erupts. Such a chain of events would only aid Russia, and delay an already delayed strategic pivot to China. So it doesn't really matter what the Israeli newspapers are saying, there are larger things at play not simply 'anti-Israelism'.
You have to consider the voting populous in Israel though. If they think the world is out to get them then they'll only turn to the hard line politicians who promise Israels security. The US...
You have to consider the voting populous in Israel though. If they think the world is out to get them then they'll only turn to the hard line politicians who promise Israels security. The US doesn't get a choice in who Israelis vote for and the US can only spend it's influence when Israel trusts that we're looking out for them. But if voters are scared and turning to ever worse politicians, then there's no telling when they elect a real dictator who takes the country insular and goes on a spree with Muslims.
Maintaining Israeli trust is paramount to having international power. We've seen just how little sanctions do to curb bad behavior.
I don't think it matters what we consider and I do not think the US needs to consider them. You seem to be arguing that unless the United States takes into account some sort of nebulous 'will of...
You have to consider the voting populous in Israel though.
I don't think it matters what we consider and I do not think the US needs to consider them.
You seem to be arguing that unless the United States takes into account some sort of nebulous 'will of Israeli voters', Israelis may vote their government out and their replacements may act worse. And that this chain of possibilities should take precedence in the face of what could be the start of a regional conflict which is not only bad on its face but also comes with it's own chain of nasty probabilities.
I don't think that's a logical argument. Nor is it even necessarily a prima facie assertion; Israel just tried the 'vote for the hardline guy who promises security' and are furious with him, Gantz is surging in the polls.
I think the ideal situation for the US is that Israel goes into Gaza, attempts some hostage rescues, destroys some Hamas infrastructure and gets out. Before the US signs off on that plan, we're seeing them negotiate for aid getting into Gaza, ascertain Israel's exit plan, and deter any regional fallout from occurring. These are strategic and domestic political considerations that the United states is putting ahead of Israeli voters, as it should.
I'm not saying anything about what the US government should do. I'm talking about what people should consider. People on Twitter and here. I'm taking about how our sentiments affect them and how...
I'm not saying anything about what the US government should do. I'm talking about what people should consider. People on Twitter and here. I'm taking about how our sentiments affect them and how believing lies only drives a wedge between us.
Worth noting that local authorities == Hamas in this case. From the video evidence I’ve seen, I’d say it’s pretty likely that Israel hit the hospital but we don’t really have any conclusive...
Worth noting that local authorities == Hamas in this case.
From the video evidence I’ve seen, I’d say it’s pretty likely that Israel hit the hospital but we don’t really have any conclusive evidence at this point.
This is a valid point to consider. The linked article does quote a Palestinian Authority spokesman saying it was a massacre, and there is photo and video evidence (photo in the linked article,...
This is a valid point to consider. The linked article does quote a Palestinian Authority spokesman saying it was a massacre, and there is photo and video evidence (photo in the linked article, video evidence on NYT) which is enough for me to confirm this strike as having happened. In addition, the director general of the WHO has likewise condemned the attack, which I would take as conclusive. WaPo has eyewitness reporting.
I would be wary of specific casualty numbers at this early time but it doesn't take a big leap to assume it will be high, given that many displaced Gazans as well as the injured have been sheltering at hospitals.
To be clear, the attack has definitely taken place. There is a lot of video evidence of that. Israel is claiming it was a Hamas rocket misfire, Hamas is saying it was an airstrike. I don't think...
To be clear, the attack has definitely taken place. There is a lot of video evidence of that.
Israel is claiming it was a Hamas rocket misfire, Hamas is saying it was an airstrike. I don't think we can say who it was at this point. I believe the video evidence of the actual impact suggests an airstrike, but it's far from conclusive.
Ah I see, I misunderstood your original comment to be expressing doubt that something had even happened. Fair to be wary in instances like this. I agree that the evidence thus far suggests an...
Ah I see, I misunderstood your original comment to be expressing doubt that something had even happened. Fair to be wary in instances like this. I agree that the evidence thus far suggests an airstrike.
No problem, I didn't word it very clearly. The trouble in following this stuff in real time is there's a very real risk of misinformation from all parties. The impact definitely sounds like (but...
No problem, I didn't word it very clearly.
The trouble in following this stuff in real time is there's a very real risk of misinformation from all parties. The impact definitely sounds like (but doesn't really look like) an airstrike, but I'm not sure if that footage has even been geolocated yet and we don't know if the audio is even real.
What is not in doubt is that there has been a terrible tragedy.
Not sure if this one has been posted yet but it is very clear that this was contained to the parking lot https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714535687070916987?s=20
Not sure if this one has been posted yet but it is very clear that this was contained to the parking lot
A Channel 4 investigation concluded that the recorded conversation is likely a fabrication after talking to two Arab journalists, who based their conclusions on "accents, syntax, and language...
A Channel 4 investigation concluded that the recorded conversation is likely a fabrication after talking to two Arab journalists, who based their conclusions on "accents, syntax, and language used". This same investigation did conclude it is unlikely that the blast was caused by an Israeli missile strike, so this shouldn't be taken as evidence to the contrary.
Thanks for the clarification. Not sure two journalists are representative enough to generate definitive proof that this is fabricated but either way this should be a good indication why we...
Thanks for the clarification. Not sure two journalists are representative enough to generate definitive proof that this is fabricated but either way this should be a good indication why we shouldn't be jumping to conclusions based on initial reports from unreliable sources.
As daylight breaks and drones were able to surveil the area, it seems like the hospital wasn't even hit, it was the parking lot. Not sure how a parking lot hit results in 500 casualties.
This is turning into a serious geopolitical incident, there is a lot of unrest in Arabic countries and diasporas right now. Abbas has canceled his meeting with Biden amid widespread protests in the West Bank.
There are also several videos that have come out since that have made me re-evaluate my initial thoughts of airstrike and make me think a failed projectile is the more likely cause here. There are videos that appear to show a rocket barrage and then as they are passing over the Gaza strip there is an impact directly below the flight path of the rockets. Nothing conclusive, but a (home made) rocket failing in some fashion and reorienting itself towards the earth would be consistent with the video of the impact that appeared to sound like a high velocity airstrike and look like a rocket impact.
FWIW these videos have not been geolocated yet either.Edit: Footage has been geolocated
The footage from the Al Jazeera Arabic live YouTube stream from about 5 hours ago shows the failed rocket. After the explosion, you can sort of see the solar panels on top of the building there which look like the ones on the hospital. This tweet pointed it out about 30 minutes ago and you can see them in Google Maps as well.
There have to be a lot of videos of the explosion. Someone is bound to take the time to geolocate all the real footage, disprove the fake and old videos and figure out what happened. There is already a Wikipedia page for the event and a lot of information is being gathered there.
It's really irresponsible how fast the media got on the anti-Israel bandwagon here, especially since the source was Hamas. It's like relying on ISIS for facts.
Somewhat unrelated, but looking at the picture of the hospital in that tweet I suddenly have a better understanding of why it seems like hospitals are being blown up constantly. I always thought it was odd that this small strip of land seemingly has so many hospitals that you don't just run out eventually. But I'm thinking of hospitals as these enormous campuses with hundreds of beds. I guess what passes for a hospital in Gaza is often makeshift clinics with only a handful of beds and exam rooms.
Based on that, the 100s of casualties they usually report when these buildings do get hit suggests that they must be severely overcrowded. I assume they must be setting up tents and cots on the parking lot to hold the overflow, which means almost no protection from. . . well. . . anything.
The median age of Palestinians there is under 20. https://www.worldometers.info/demographics/state-of-palestine-demographics/
"Medics" are literal teenagers applying field dressings, and frequently are bombed or shot. The median age has actually improved since I became aware of the conflict. It was more like 16-17.
We're talking about over a million children (and another million or so over 19) penned into an open air prison the size of Las Vegas, where potable water is frequently cut off and bombings are frequent.
Or, what if, Hamas are lying and inflating numbers to make Israel look worse in the eye of the public and global media?
If you’re going to posit something that dramatic, you should probably back it up with something. Unsubstantiated “concerns” like this serve only to help enable war crimes.
Is it really so hard for you to understand why a TERRORIST ORGANIZATION, who places no value on it's own people's lives would lie to boost it's image?
As for sources, there are many you could find with a simple web search,so I'm just going to copy from a different reply I made in this thread
I'm not saying there are no casualties. In fact it's pretty much implied by what I said that they do exist, but the numbers posted by Hamas are more than likely falsified and inflated.
For example in the 2014 war
Or this article from 2021 showing how the media reports Hamas' oqn numbers without checking or confirming them at all, in both instance it was later realized that people Hamas reported as civilians were actually terrorists.
Add to that Hamas' well known policy of hiding in civilian centers, hospitals and mosques, it's very clear Israel is trying very hard to avoid these casualties.
I'll add one more piece of evidence, to show just how little Hamas cares for it's own people from this recent war, as they decided to block main roads in Gaza to prevent them from evacuating away from the fighting area
The numbers may be off but it's unlikely that Isreal bombing only destroys buildings and has no collateral damage. Which ever side you're on, you have to acknowledge that any military campaign is going to cause the incidental deaths of civilians.
I'm not saying there are no casualties. In fact it's pretty much implied by what I said that they do exist, but the numbers posted by Hamas are more than likely falsified and inflated.
For example in the 2014 war
Or this article from 2021 showing how the media reports Hamas' oqn numbers without checking or confirming them at all, in both instance it was later realized that people Hamas reported as civilians were actually terrorists.
Add to that Hamas' well known policy of hiding in civilian centers, hospitals and mosques, it's very clear Israel is trying very hard to avoid these casualties.
I'll add one more piece of evidence, to show just how little Hamas cares for it's own people from this recent war, as they decided to block main roads in Gaza to prevent them from evacuating away from the fighting area
I haven't seen any anti Israel reporting on this (in general the western press is extremely, even rabidly, pro Israel), just a claim that it was an air strike (which it was) and speculation about what causes it (serious consideration of hypotheses that it was an Israeli air strike as well as a Hamas rocket gone awry).
‘Air strike’ implies a strike from an aircraft, not airborne munitions. So I think any headlines calling it an air strike are wildly premature.
News organizations in the Twitter (and especially X revenue sharing) era are heavily incentivized to report on breaking news as quickly as possible and also to fill in the blanks to generate uptake — an awful combination.
Air strike is, in this conflict and location, only consistent with an Israeli aircraft fired munition. If anyone calls this an air strike, they're saying Israel did it, because as far as anyone knows, no one else operates aircraft in the airspace. Well, that, or their use of that word is so sloppy as to be meaningless.
As far as we know now - from post-hoc damage assessment and the geolocated live-stream of the failed launch overhead - it was not an airstrike.
Adopting the Hamas line, calling it an airstrike and claiming 100s of casualties, one is acting as the mouthpiece of Hamas. They lie all the time. Israel does too, sure, but that doesn't excuse copying the opposing lie.
I'm also not a fan of how news outlets now are adopting an overly neutral line, now that we do have some evidence. The evidence we've seen by now certainly is more credible than a Hamas claim without any evidence except "we're the propaganda arm of a terror organization at war, trust me", but news outlets are more hesitant to assign blame now than when Israel was still getting their evidence together. They're overcorrecting. Should've been the other way around - hedged first, and more confident later.
Headlines do get updated. AP had 'Israel-Hamas war: Israel bombs Gaza where civilians sought refuge' and now changed it to 'Blast kills hundreds at Gaza hospital; Hamas and Israel trade blame, as Biden heads to Mideast' .. the alt-text you see in the tab is still the old headline. https://apnews.com/article/israel-palestinians-gaza-hamas-war-biden-rafah-e062825a375d9eb62e95509cab95b80c
In the past hour or so the headlines have become less biased.
This is bass ackwards. Breaking news is supposed to be heavily hedged and caveated. You get the editorial stances and narrative later once the facts are more clear.
Most major news organizations and discussions about the topic that I saw online immediately said it was an Israeli attack and many many people immediately condemned them for it. Even the President made a statement before later retracting it.
Most of the headlines that I saw were very careful to qualify the air-strike claim with a "Locals say" or "Palestinians say". This is pretty standard media hedging in my experience — before something is confirmed the source of the claim is often mentioned in the headline itself as opposed to only in the article itself. That being said this is definitely an area where speed has to be sacrificed for accuracy. And this also highlights why traditional media still has its advantages over faster-responding social media.
“Palestinians officials say” hits very differently from “Hamas officials” say. And in Gaza any time you see the former it’s likely the latter, largely because Hamas has cowed, killed, or exiled everyone else.
Aren’t they one and the same since Hamas rules Gaza? Hamas is bigger than their terrorist branch.
Yes they are one and the same
And Hamas has proven again and again their "political" side only serves to feed and empower their militaristic aspersion.
From taking international aid and using it to build rocket, to stealing medicine to heal wounded terrorists and literally taking food from starving population to feed their jihadists .
Hamas never cared for the population of Gaza, they have to be destroyed for the people to have any chance of peace.
Should be noted as well that the Israeli military has said that the scale of the blast does appear to be outside Hamas' capabilities. Link should go to a specific block with the source in the Guardian live feed.
Does that link really evidence that?
We don't have the original statement here - it's unclear to me whether it's supposed to be:
[ this being editorial content, not original from the IDF ] - or:
Of course neither version implying a direct quote, just illustrating what part is indirectly quoted.
Apparently several Israeli government accounts that initially posted the video have since edited or removed their posts. Some have speculated that this was because the video itself was from 30 minutes after the reports of the bombing occurred, and although the removal itself doesn't prove anything, it does seem pretty weird. It would also be outside of Hamas' known capabilities for their rockets to create an explosion of this magnitude.
I think there are a lot of explanations for the large impact if we accept the misfire hypothesis; for instance hitting fuel/generators at the hospital or extra propellant left in the rocket since it malfunctioned so early.
Extra propellant seems quite plausible. The actual detonation seems to not have been as destructive as the fireball suggests. That's IMO consistent with rocket fuel or other material boosting the fireball. Actual, properly made military warheads tend not to produce a massive fireball; they're usually a very brief flash and then more smoke than fire. This was a fireball that lingered a moment.
The vast majority of short-range missiles use solid rocket motors, which typically burn out in a matter of seconds. The missile reaches its top speed within the first minute, burns out, and then follows a ballistic trajectory to the target. Additionally, you can't extinguish a solid motor once it's lit – if there was any cohesive propellant left after the initial midair explosion you would have seen it burning all the way to the ground, not just a sudden explosion once it hit. Unburnt propellant almost certainly had no effect here unless Hamas is using liquid engines and I would bet money that they're not.
AFAIK it's believed these rockets were long range rockets fired at Tel Aviv as Hamas had made claims they were being launched before the incident. Additionally, while we don't have any details about their rocket construction it's known they are heavily improvised and the ability for them to import materials is extremely limited. But ultimately you're right,nothing can be said confidently about the makeup of the rocket.
In the end, I don't know if it matters now that we have images of the impact site. It's certainly in line with similar rocket impacts that have been recorded in Israel.
"Long-Range" is somewhat of a term of art when it comes to missiles. As far as I can tell the longest range capability that Hamas has even claimed (ie it's probably safe to knock this down a fair bit) is 250km using their Ayyash-250 which falls squarely within the TBM category, and therefore "short-range."
This is exactly why I'm willing to put money on them not having liquids. There's at least an order of magnitude of difference in complexity and cost; solids are simple by comparison.
Ehh, depends on the perspective. From an artillery perspective, 250km is confidently "long range". From a ballistic missile perspective, it's short-range.
As for your overall point that it's unlikely the rocket motor caused the fireball, that I don't contest. While it's possible that some amount of SRB propellant was thrown clear of the burning end of the candle, I don't really believe that. It's much more likely that either the warhead just exploded/burned funny, their improvised warheads never really detonate like "proper" warheads, or the warhead simply ignited something else on the ground. Regardless, many things surrounding the explosion itself are clearly mostly inconsistent with an air strike that wasn't screwed up on multiple levels, from target selection to execution.
Thanks, appreciate the clarification.
Most of the damage seems to have been related to a fire, not an explosion. A missile capable of traveling from Gaza into central Israel has a lot of fuel onboard. One of those crashing before its burned all its fuel out can produce a very significant blast and fire.
Biden has canceled his stop in Jordan. While it is possibly unrelated, this comes just as King Abdullah II called the strike a war crime.
Side note, it appears that Jordan cancelled first. So it's not Biden fearing a meeting with the Arab council but more they chose to cancel the summit and thus there's no reason for Biden to even attempt a visit.
There are more images (SFW, CW: destruction) of the impact today, I think we can rule out any sort of HE bomb today.
The United States: "The U.S. has an independent assessment that it was a Palestinian Islamic Jihad group rocket that misfired and hit the hospital in Gaza, according to two senior U.S. officials."
I’m not sure what happens from here. Most of the Arab states, including UAE, have condemned Israel for the explosion. Hard to see unrest dying down unless they walk that back. This definitely puts a wrench in the ground invasion plans, I think at this point the region is far too primed not to erupt if Israel were to invade today. Perhaps a silver lining in this tragedy.
I'd say it's the opposite effect. It tells Israel that the world is against them regardless of what they do and don't do. So if the world isn't going to listen then why listen themselves. That's the real danger of the anti-Israel at all costs mindset. They have restrained themselves from what they can really do to Gaza, but if people won't accept facts then there's no point in restraint. It could very well be the reason they march the Gazans out instead of a directed Hamas attack.
There's a difference between the Israeli op-eds and the people that actually have to govern and wear the consequences of their actions.
The United States has a great deal of leverage here, and we can already see they have been applying it. The United States absolutely does not want to step into a regional war here, something it would have to do if this erupts. Such a chain of events would only aid Russia, and delay an already delayed strategic pivot to China. So it doesn't really matter what the Israeli newspapers are saying, there are larger things at play not simply 'anti-Israelism'.
You have to consider the voting populous in Israel though. If they think the world is out to get them then they'll only turn to the hard line politicians who promise Israels security. The US doesn't get a choice in who Israelis vote for and the US can only spend it's influence when Israel trusts that we're looking out for them. But if voters are scared and turning to ever worse politicians, then there's no telling when they elect a real dictator who takes the country insular and goes on a spree with Muslims.
Maintaining Israeli trust is paramount to having international power. We've seen just how little sanctions do to curb bad behavior.
I don't think it matters what we consider and I do not think the US needs to consider them.
You seem to be arguing that unless the United States takes into account some sort of nebulous 'will of Israeli voters', Israelis may vote their government out and their replacements may act worse. And that this chain of possibilities should take precedence in the face of what could be the start of a regional conflict which is not only bad on its face but also comes with it's own chain of nasty probabilities.
I don't think that's a logical argument. Nor is it even necessarily a prima facie assertion; Israel just tried the 'vote for the hardline guy who promises security' and are furious with him, Gantz is surging in the polls.
I think the ideal situation for the US is that Israel goes into Gaza, attempts some hostage rescues, destroys some Hamas infrastructure and gets out. Before the US signs off on that plan, we're seeing them negotiate for aid getting into Gaza, ascertain Israel's exit plan, and deter any regional fallout from occurring. These are strategic and domestic political considerations that the United states is putting ahead of Israeli voters, as it should.
I'm not saying anything about what the US government should do. I'm talking about what people should consider. People on Twitter and here. I'm taking about how our sentiments affect them and how believing lies only drives a wedge between us.
Worth noting that local authorities == Hamas in this case.
From the video evidence I’ve seen, I’d say it’s pretty likely that Israel hit the hospital but we don’t really have any conclusive evidence at this point.
This is a valid point to consider. The linked article does quote a Palestinian Authority spokesman saying it was a massacre, and there is photo and video evidence (photo in the linked article, video evidence on NYT) which is enough for me to confirm this strike as having happened. In addition, the director general of the WHO has likewise condemned the attack, which I would take as conclusive. WaPo has eyewitness reporting.
I would be wary of specific casualty numbers at this early time but it doesn't take a big leap to assume it will be high, given that many displaced Gazans as well as the injured have been sheltering at hospitals.
To be clear, the attack has definitely taken place. There is a lot of video evidence of that.
Israel is claiming it was a Hamas rocket misfire, Hamas is saying it was an airstrike. I don't think we can say who it was at this point. I believe the video evidence of the actual impact suggests an airstrike, but it's far from conclusive.
Ah I see, I misunderstood your original comment to be expressing doubt that something had even happened. Fair to be wary in instances like this. I agree that the evidence thus far suggests an airstrike.
No problem, I didn't word it very clearly.
The trouble in following this stuff in real time is there's a very real risk of misinformation from all parties. The impact definitely sounds like (but doesn't really look like) an airstrike, but I'm not sure if that footage has even been geolocated yet and we don't know if the audio is even real.
What is not in doubt is that there has been a terrible tragedy.
Edit: Here is a very qualified person casting doubt on the status of the 'JDAM impact' version of events
Not sure if this one has been posted yet but it is very clear that this was contained to the parking lot
https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1714535687070916987?s=20
Hamas conversation about the blast
Video on the explosion
Different angle
A Channel 4 investigation concluded that the recorded conversation is likely a fabrication after talking to two Arab journalists, who based their conclusions on "accents, syntax, and language used". This same investigation did conclude it is unlikely that the blast was caused by an Israeli missile strike, so this shouldn't be taken as evidence to the contrary.
Thanks for the clarification. Not sure two journalists are representative enough to generate definitive proof that this is fabricated but either way this should be a good indication why we shouldn't be jumping to conclusions based on initial reports from unreliable sources.
As daylight breaks and drones were able to surveil the area, it seems like the hospital wasn't even hit, it was the parking lot. Not sure how a parking lot hit results in 500 casualties.