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Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of December 11
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Donald Trump surges in Iowa to historical high in latest poll
I will be honest, this concerns me a lot. The 2016 election was a complete surprise to me. Given everything that has happened in the last 8 years, I very afraid that a win for him will mean a real end to the meaningful rule of law and fair and free elections in the US.
I don't feel like the Democrats are handling things well, because they seem to be very much "business as usual" when the threat is anything but. It also seems like they are not taking full advantage of the boost that abortion rights have given to the left in elections.
I start thinking about planning for somewhere to go, but it seems like this kind of thing is happening all over the world.
Edited to add: I guess I'm posting this to see if anyone has some news that might help me worry less.
Well, if it helps you worry less, polls this far out don't mean much. If they did, we would have had some pretty interesting differences in our history books as far as presidents go.
Another thing that may help you worry less is that, in my daily life, I hear a lot of chatter from right wingers that Trump is washed up and can't shut his mouth. They still hate Biden and won't vote for him, but I have a hope that they'll at least choose to abstain from voting.
I don't feel the buzz or the energy that I did from the right when Trump first ran. The righties in my life have mostly shut up about Trump and they'll cautiously say things like, "He did some great things in the beginning but yeah, I mean I guess I don't like how he handled some things later on. He does kind of have a big ego. But he was a better choice than Hillary." They try to pretend that they were just voting against Hillary and not for Trump. I know this isn't true because they were foaming at the mouth for Trump, but I'll take it.
I think the fence sitters and "moderate" Republicans are pretty ashamed of voting for him at this point. Trump will always have his base because they're completely insane or (best case) uninformed.
My hope is that Trump will be an extremely effective campaigner for Biden, even if his own campaign is lackluster. Trump is a narcissist who craves the spotlight and is quite skilled at drawing it to himself. So while people might not like Biden much, they'll be reminded that they really hate Trump, whether they want to be or not. It's not a lot, but it's something that I can hope for while things look real grim.
I am also concerned. A conviction will help I think if it can happen in time
Why?
I genuinely don't understand why people think a conviction will help. Donald Trump's base isn't going to look at that and say, "Oh, I guess he really is a crook." They'll look at it and say "Oh, the system is out to get him." If anything, it will galvanize them.
It's an issue of people disengaging at the margins of his group of supporters. The hard core loyalists are only a subset of who it takes to win a national election.
I simply don't believe that anyone left supporting Trump will be swayed by a conviction. The man already incited a riot that nearly killed members of Congress in order to maintain his grip on power after losing an election. Like, that actually happened. Why would a court saying "Yep, you did a bad thing" have a bigger impact than that?
People aren't rational and they live in media bubbles and they are incredibly diverse. A conviction is harder to spin by right wing media than a protest at the Capitol.
My theory is that he has already lost some support.
I don't think most people who already are unhappy about January 6 or the classified documents are admitting publicly that they are no longer enthusiastic supporters if they once supported Trump.
The pressure of the trials is causing Trump to whine a lot, which is going to annoy the people who admire John Wayne and Clint Eastwood. Boomer wasp conservatives tend to admire grit and stoicism.
Someone whose identity is tied up with law and order might be bothered a lot by a conviction.
Being discouraged or unenthusiastic enough to stay away is good enough. It's not necessary to change someone's party preference.
But it's all speculation. We will see what actually happens next year.
All the more reason to fight and fight hard and get out the vote.
Edit, but I think there are more subgroups than you are crediting.
National security and the military was another Republican priority
Agreed. I had also once thought that a conviction - a felony conviction - would bar him from the presidential race but I learned that I was wrong on that.
I really do worry that Trump will win again, and I feel powerless to do anything about it.
I wonder if Canada is looking for more elementary school teachers?
I wish Biden would step aside for someone young and full of energy to fight the conmen. We need someone to rally up and get behind. it's hard to be excited for sleepy Joe.