nosewings's recent activity

  1. Comment on Jack Dorsey quits Bluesky board and urges users to stay on Elon Musk's X in ~tech

    nosewings
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    I think people consistently underestimate the power of being an entrenched player who is too big to fail.

    I really did think Musk was gonna drive it into the ground completely, and yet here we are.

    I think people consistently underestimate the power of being an entrenched player who is too big to fail.

    13 votes

  2. Comment on AI, automation, and inequality — how do we reach utopia? in ~talk

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    Perhaps. I'm afraid that the current strongman/authoritarian/populist surge may be the "bad timeline" alternative, which might prevent a proper class consciousness from ever developing.

    Perhaps. I'm afraid that the current strongman/authoritarian/populist surge may be the "bad timeline" alternative, which might prevent a proper class consciousness from ever developing.

    4 votes

  3. Comment on AI, automation, and inequality — how do we reach utopia? in ~talk

    nosewings
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    I'm very pessimistic about this outcome, and frankly I think people who think this is even very likely, much less inevitable, have ideological blinders on. Technological "progress" is not always...

    I'm very pessimistic about this outcome, and frankly I think people who think this is even very likely, much less inevitable, have ideological blinders on.

    Technological "progress" is not always an absolute good. The fact that we have imagined post-scarcity futures has no bearing on whether such a thing is likely, or even possible. There's no reason to think that efficiency gains from technological progress will ever be distributed in a way that makes work unnecessary for the vast majority of people. Rather than not having to work, it is more likely that people will be unable to work, and will be left to fend for themselves as best they can. Unless a significant portion of the world develops a class consciousness and becomes willing to fight, there is simply no reason for those with control over technological resources to share the gains.

    So I guess that's my answer: a large portion of the world has to develop class consciousness and a willingness to fight.

    The other problem, in my mind, is that, if ecological degradation continues at the current pace, any kind of utopia will be completely precluded, probably for the entire remainder of human existence. And, of course, there's the seemingly-intractable problem that nuclear weapons exist, and the likelihood that we will destroy ourselves with nukes approaches 1 as time goes to infinity.

    12 votes

  4. Comment on The world owes Spider-Man 3 an apology in ~movies

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    Agree about Empire, but totally disagree about Jedi. Jedi is already showing signs of some of the problems that would bring the prequels down; e.g., action scene bloat, obsession with its own...

    the few years and influx of dollars really helped Empire and Jedi hold up better to the test of time

    Agree about Empire, but totally disagree about Jedi. Jedi is already showing signs of some of the problems that would bring the prequels down; e.g., action scene bloat, obsession with its own mythology, tonal inconsistency.

    11 votes

  5. Comment on More than 2,000 pro-Palestinian protesters arrested across US campuses in ~news

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    It certainly does not go back thousands of years, unless you somehow count the Jewish-Roman wars as part of the current conflict.

    This conflict goes back hundreds (if not thousands) of years.

    It certainly does not go back thousands of years, unless you somehow count the Jewish-Roman wars as part of the current conflict.

    7 votes

  6. Comment on A Reddit-led boycott of Loblaws, one of Canadas largest grocers, begins today in ~finance

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    I wouldn't cite wallstreetbets as a good example to follow here. They may have shaken up the market for a little bit, but it mostly just ended up with established players making bank off of retail.

    I wouldn't cite wallstreetbets as a good example to follow here. They may have shaken up the market for a little bit, but it mostly just ended up with established players making bank off of retail.

    14 votes

  7. Comment on Early tests of H5N1 prevalence in milk suggest US bird flu outbreak in cows is widespread in ~health

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    With tofu, I find that preparation matters quite a lot. Here's my preferred procedure for making firm tofu. Freeze it. This helps give it a better texture. Let it thaw. Press it. Cut it into...

    With tofu, I find that preparation matters quite a lot. Here's my preferred procedure for making firm tofu.

    1. Freeze it. This helps give it a better texture.
    2. Let it thaw.
    3. Press it.
    4. Cut it into cubes.
    5. Pan-fry it, preferably with some kind of sauce.

    If done right, the result should be agreeably crispy.

    2 votes

  8. Comment on ChatGPT provides false information about people, and OpenAI can’t correct it in ~tech

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    I feel like the fact that I can type "bloodborne cover art" into Midjourney and get this out is highly suggestive.

    I feel like the fact that I can type "bloodborne cover art" into Midjourney and get this out is highly suggestive.

    3 votes

  9. Comment on Early tests of H5N1 prevalence in milk suggest US bird flu outbreak in cows is widespread in ~health

    nosewings
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    There's an oral polio vaccine! It's notable because It's cheap to produce, and It works via an attenuated polio virus. This means that it causes a mild polio infection, which can spread to...

    I'm not a medical worker, but I feel like I've never heard of a vaccine that's administered orally.

    There's an oral polio vaccine! It's notable because

    1. It's cheap to produce, and
    2. It works via an attenuated polio virus. This means that it causes a mild polio infection, which can spread to others---usually good, because it means that one dose can vaccinate multiple people, but it can sometimes revert to a more dangerous form of polio. This is important for the fight to eradicate polio, since "wild" polio is expected to be eradicated in the next few years, but "vaccine" polio will be around a while longer.
    9 votes

  10. Comment on Early tests of H5N1 prevalence in milk suggest US bird flu outbreak in cows is widespread in ~health

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    The R-naught in humans is currently 0; i.e., it cannot currently spread from person to person. If it gains the ability to do so, it almost certainly will become a pandemic. The fact that is is...

    it seems to have a pretty low R-naught in humans

    The R-naught in humans is currently 0; i.e., it cannot currently spread from person to person. If it gains the ability to do so, it almost certainly will become a pandemic. The fact that is is currently spreading in cows is very worrying, given that 1. cows are mammals, and therefore much closer to us than birds, and 2. humans interact with cows a lot, which gives the virus a lot of opportunity to infect humans and potentially develop the ability to spread between humans.

    15 votes

  11. Comment on Early tests of H5N1 prevalence in milk suggest US bird flu outbreak in cows is widespread in ~health

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    Flu viruses may be well understood in general, but H5N1 is terrifying. The CFR is like 50%, and it hits young adults the hardest. A 50% CFR could, with very little exaggeration, be called...

    Flu viruses may be well understood in general, but H5N1 is terrifying. The CFR is like 50%, and it hits young adults the hardest. A 50% CFR could, with very little exaggeration, be called apocalyptic. It would almost certainly kill significantly more than 50% of the global population due to higher-order effects, especially considering that it hits the most economically-productive age groups the hardest.

    Even the lower estimates of the "true" fatality rate put it at around 10%, which is around at least 10 times more deadly than COVID-19, and that's not even taking into account higher-order effects.

    Frankly, I'm not sure why the world isn't completely freaking out over this. It's been keeping me up at night. The only thing going for us is that we're somewhat better-prepared for it than we were for COVID-19, since the CDC has always expected that a pandemic influenza would be the most important thing to worry about, and also we have mRNA vaccine technology now.

    41 votes

  12. Comment on Net neutrality is back as US FCC votes to regulate internet providers in ~tech

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    My understanding is that, when the federal government rolls back a regulation, there's often some hesitancy to take advantage of it, since the next administration might just re-establish the...

    My understanding is that, when the federal government rolls back a regulation, there's often some hesitancy to take advantage of it, since the next administration might just re-establish the regulation. This appears to be a good example of that.

    12 votes

  13. Comment on Amazon grows to over 750,000 robots as world's second-largest private employer replaces over 100,000 humans in ~tech

    nosewings
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    Even assuming this can work (which I have my doubts about), it's not a panacea. The usual trend is that a worker gets paid more as they gain experience. If you have to quit your field and move to...

    If workers are having a hard time reskilling then we should increase education access rather than limiting automation.

    Even assuming this can work (which I have my doubts about), it's not a panacea. The usual trend is that a worker gets paid more as they gain experience. If you have to quit your field and move to a completely different one, that trajectory gets interrupted.

    2 votes

  14. Comment on In US lawsuit, ex-Amazon AI exec claims she was asked to ignore IP law in ~tech

    nosewings
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    It is known.

    According to the complaint, Styskin rejected Ghaderi's concerns, allegedly telling her to ignore copyright policies to improve the results. Referring to rival AI companies, the filing alleges he said: "Everyone else is doing it."

    It is known.

    11 votes

  15. Comment on Former naturalists/materialists, what changed your view? in ~humanities

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    I wouldn't suggest that they are metaphysically impossible---I don't actually believe that. But I do think that they are physically impossible; i.e., impossible within the laws of the actual universe.

    I wouldn't suggest that they are metaphysically impossible---I don't actually believe that. But I do think that they are physically impossible; i.e., impossible within the laws of the actual universe.

    1 vote

  16. Comment on Former naturalists/materialists, what changed your view? in ~humanities

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    This point is debatable. We might think we can imagine it, but can we, really, at least within the laws of physics? i.e., one can assert that P-zombies are physically impossible (or, if you balk...

    We can also imagine a biological intelligence, maybe a human, that functions identically to a human mind, yet has no conscious experience itself; it merely processes inputs/outputs and potentially updates weights in its brain.

    This point is debatable. We might think we can imagine it, but can we, really, at least within the laws of physics? i.e., one can assert that P-zombies are physically impossible (or, if you balk at the word "physically", then impossible within the laws of nature of our universe), and that imagining a P-zombie is essentially the same as imagining Superman.

    5 votes

  17. Comment on Scientists push new paradigm of animal consciousness, saying even insects may be sentient in ~enviro

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    Something like: the capacity to experience qualia.

    Something like: the capacity to experience qualia.

    1 vote

  18. Comment on Startups want to geoengineer a cooler planet. With few rules, experts see big risks. in ~enviro

    nosewings
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    There are two facts about geoengineering that, combined, terrify me. It is, as far as we could tell, something that we could do, and it is something that is being seriously considered. Someone...

    There are two facts about geoengineering that, combined, terrify me.

    1. It is, as far as we could tell, something that we could do, and it is something that is being seriously considered.
    2. Someone could just do it. The US or China could just start trying to cool the planet without getting anyone else's OK.
    11 votes

  19. Comment on Scientists push new paradigm of animal consciousness, saying even insects may be sentient in ~enviro

    nosewings
    Link Parent
    Based on the comments on this thread, I guess part of the reason is that the implications of even other mammals being conscious (to say nothing of insects) are simply too terrible for it to be...

    Based on the comments on this thread, I guess part of the reason is that the implications of even other mammals being conscious (to say nothing of insects) are simply too terrible for it to be true.

    Which is, of course, absurd. Reality is under no obligation to be nice.

    19 votes

  20. Comment on Scientists push new paradigm of animal consciousness, saying even insects may be sentient in ~enviro

    nosewings
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    The idea that even insects are conscious is just something I've always assumed to be true. I was surprised recently to learn that a sizable number of people think that they aren't.

    The idea that even insects are conscious is just something I've always assumed to be true. I was surprised recently to learn that a sizable number of people think that they aren't.

    18 votes