Not entirely surprising, given how Ukraine has slowly been more allowed to attack more into Russia. With how attrition appears to favour Russia in raw macroeconomic numbers(which is misleading...
Not entirely surprising, given how Ukraine has slowly been more allowed to attack more into Russia. With how attrition appears to favour Russia in raw macroeconomic numbers(which is misleading incidentally, as Russia's economic situation is unsustainable and only makes for good propaganda as well as keeping the war engine up), I imagine this is a very effective spit on the propaganda that Russia's citizens are in fact, safe and things will end up alright. I highly doubt that it's a coincidence this happens at the same time as the F-16s arrived in Ukraine, given that this will really increase the pressure on Putin's government.
Also, something I wonder, will the fact that this happened in Kursk where arguably the largest battle in history occurred affect the public perception in Russia? It's not like the infamous battle of Stalingrad, but still.
Unfortunately, the New York Times has been reporting that this probably won't do much to improve their prospects. That was two days ago. More recent reporting is very slightly less pessimistic...
Military analysts said the attack could be an attempt to divert Russian units from the front lines, thus relieving the pressure on Ukrainian troops struggling to contain Russian advances. But they added that the Russian Army had ample reserves of troops to commit to the fight and that the attack risked further stretching Ukraine’s already outnumbered forces.
[...]
On both occasions, the attacks were seen as an attempt to unnerve the Russian public and undermine Mr. Putin’s efforts to insulate them from the war.
But Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, wrote on social media that those attacks “had little effect on the fighting” in Ukraine and “did not have serious domestic political ramifications for Putin.”
He and other military experts said that if the aim of this week’s attack was to draw Russian troops away from other parts of the front, it had little chance of succeeding.
“Russia already has greater forces/conventional capabilities in the area, better command and control, and it has conscript units that can be deployed, which are not used in Ukraine,” Mr. Lee said. “It is unlikely this operation will force Russia to pull significant forces from Ukraine.”
That was two days ago. More recent reporting is very slightly less pessimistic about it, though.
Military analysts say they are skeptical that Russia, which has a vastly larger army and arsenal of weapons than Ukraine, would be forced to divert forces from the fighting inside Ukraine to defend its border. Russia has reserves of conscript soldiers it is prohibited by its policies from deploying into Ukraine, but could on Russian soil.
It's a shame. If there were any justice in the world, this disgusting, pointless invasion would result in Putin being overthrown.
While I agree on their analysis as a singular occurrence and event, it misses parts of the bigger picture. This has for quite some time been a war of attrition. Whose morale keeps up. Whose...
While I agree on their analysis as a singular occurrence and event, it misses parts of the bigger picture. This has for quite some time been a war of attrition. Whose morale keeps up. Whose economy sustains. Whose allies will keep supporting. Whose government will crumble first. Those are all unknowns as to what's the final straw, what will last the longest. And while this probing invasion won't do much on any of them immediately as the shock is weak, the wave penetrates these deeply.
From a tactical perspective, this was nothing. From a strategic I suspect it's bigger than most people think. How big is an unknown, however. And most likely it will take years, if not decades, after the war for us to know how big due to the fog of war.
The NYT analysis overlooks why the conscripts aren't being used in Ukraine. Early on in the invasion the Kremlin found out that use of conscripts in battle was extremely unpopular and even had to...
The NYT analysis overlooks why the conscripts aren't being used in Ukraine. Early on in the invasion the Kremlin found out that use of conscripts in battle was extremely unpopular and even had to make statements about some conscripts who died early on to place blame on others for how they got into combat. Now Russia must choose between sending conscripts to die (or be captured en masse as the case as often been) or redirect 'volunteer' troops from other offensives to try to stop the Ukrainian advance.
It also misses the fact that now that Russia's territorial integrity has been directly challenged, there will be enormous pressure to retake that land. Ukraine has already made extensive preparations to defend the territory captured, and while they're probably willing to give that land back, the Ukrainians intend to make the Russians pay an extremely heavy price for it. That price might seem even higher since Russia was about to switch to defense for a tactical pause. Now they must either continue attacking without a chance to rebuild forces, or essentially give that territory away for the foreseeable future.
Yeah, in all honesty the more this goes on the more this looks like a very good move on Ukraine's side. Pair all what you said about conscripts and territory with the state of the Russian economy...
Yeah, in all honesty the more this goes on the more this looks like a very good move on Ukraine's side.
Pair all what you said about conscripts and territory with the state of the Russian economy and it actually becomes even worse for the Kgremlin. More man will be needed per km frontline, especially for Russia, when inflation is high due to lower goods and less manpower in the economy. Unemployment is incredibly low in Russia because people are dying and fleeing.
And taking the territory back with what's close to WW1 human wave tactics boy. That'll cost even more.
I don't think Russia has a good move here. All actions they can take will really hurt their war effort long term.
A state of emergency has been declared in the Russian border region of Kursk as troops continue to battle against an alleged Ukrainian incursion. President Putin has accused Ukraine of a "large-scale provocation."
So terribly unfair! Why can't they stay in their country while we assemble forces and conduct artillery barrages just behind our side of the border while yelling 'neener neener neener, you're not...
So terribly unfair! Why can't they stay in their country while we assemble forces and conduct artillery barrages just behind our side of the border while yelling 'neener neener neener, you're not allowed to touch us!'. Waah!
(cough) Ahem.
My apologies for reducing the overall quality of this discussion in the expression of my viewpoint. I felt childishness was.... warranted in this specific case.
Russia's Defense Ministry claimed that Ukrainian soldiers broke into the territory of Russia's Kursk region on Aug. 6.
The statement came after Russian pro-war Telegram channels wrote that a sabotage and reconnaissance group with heavy equipment had entered the Kursk region in the morning.
Kursk region lies on the border with Ukraine's Sumy Oblast, which has been experiencing daily Russian attacks since the liberation of its parts in April 2022.
Why would they comment? They have a new game plan and they're not telling anyone what it is. All the military strategists are strategizing and reasoning, but Ukraine are staying tight lipped. My...
Why would they comment? They have a new game plan and they're not telling anyone what it is.
All the military strategists are strategizing and reasoning, but Ukraine are staying tight lipped.
My theory (and I am clueless) is that they are going to go for "little fires, everywhere" approach to thin out Russia's military, then have at it on a major assault somewhere.
Scatter the defence, then hard target. Once done, sit back and ask if Russia have had enough yet or did they fancy some more?
Agree. Also leverage in a hypothetical future peace talks.
My theory (and I am clueless) is that they are going to go for "little fires, everywhere" approach to thin out Russia's military, then have at it on a major assault somewhere.
Agree. Also leverage in a hypothetical future peace talks.
I suspect that this may be a bigger point than most think. Within peace talks Russia has wanted to get more territory than it even controls when drawn at the front lines. The morale boost,...
Agree. Also leverage in a hypothetical future peace talks.
I suspect that this may be a bigger point than most think. Within peace talks Russia has wanted to get more territory than it even controls when drawn at the front lines.
The morale boost, straining logistical issues of Russia further, slapping Putin's propaganda hard are all great accomplishments too. From a pure fighting perspective this may have been next to nothing but on a military and political level this is really going to help Ukraine.
Also, I think this might be the last time Russia got humiliated like this since the general staff switch? This may also hurt the image that Russia fixed its many, many issues in the military.
I think that one of the points: "oh, you want peace talk and each side will hold currently controlled territories? Then we will have Kursk. And more.".
I think that one of the points: "oh, you want peace talk and each side will hold currently controlled territories? Then we will have Kursk. And more.".
Just to add to this, the 80th and sister unit 82nd Air Assault Brigades are well-trained troops and have a long combat history both since the 2022 Russian invasion and during the Russian invasion...
Just to add to this, the 80th and sister unit 82nd Air Assault Brigades are well-trained troops and have a long combat history both since the 2022 Russian invasion and during the Russian invasion of Crimea. In the past they've been given opportunities to regenerate their combat effectiveness and stage themselves for counter-attacks while waiting for the appropriate strategic situations to develop. So these are not forces that are committed to the fight without consideration of their merits. They're also mechanized units and are thought to be equipped with some NATO equipment, including a compliment of Challenger 2 tanks from the UK, which have proven to have a high survivability rating for its crew.
Additionally, it was reported that the initial advance towards Russia's Kursk might indeed have been a fairly small number of forces, although I'd think any number of advancing tanks needs at least a fairly robust supply line behind it. A Ukrainian official has since said "It is a lot more … Thousands." Sounds a lot like the kind of situation where a competent commander is committing experienced troops to a situation that has proven advantageous and has a willingness to exploit it as much as strategically possible. Or maybe they were downplaying the size of the fighting force to keep Russia off-balance since Russia may not have realized the scale of the assault from the outset.
Either way, the longer this incursion into Russia lasts, the better planned and executed it looks with real goals and real support at a theater level. That gives me a lot of confidence in the Ukrainian command side of things. And of course they're getting a lot of good intelligence as well, which is comforting, given the situation.
I had to check whether the ISW actually said that and yes, yes they did. In fact: I have to ask here if there's someone here who actually knows whether this is as stupid as it sounds. Because when...
Russia’s military appears to be relying on defending Kursk with a mixture of conscript border guards, elements from other regional forces and those “redeployed from lower-priority frontline areas in Ukraine”, according to an overnight analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) thinktank, which added that it was likely to exacerbate “the disorganisation of Russia’s chosen response”.
I had to check whether the ISW actually said that and yes, yes they did. In fact:
Putin delegated overlapping tasks to the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), Federal Security Service (FSB), and Rosgvardia in the Ukrainian-Russian border area — further highlighting how the Russian force grouping in Kursk Oblast is struggling to establish the joint command and control (C2) structures necessary to coordinate operations.
I have to ask here if there's someone here who actually knows whether this is as stupid as it sounds. Because when I consider what this means and what it will look like is basically:
Russia clearly did not have even a response planned for such an invasion. Despite the fact that this was always a possibility. Or Putin just flat out doesn't listen to his general staff.
The three organizations, and especially the national guard(Rosgvardia), haven't exactly cooperated on something like this before. Without a clear command structure that's asking for trouble.
By pulling from plenty different sources rumors, no matter how much censorship you invoke, will spread.
If this results in infighting within these forces, one of the military and the national guard which is basically an anti-coup measure by Putin, you may well out forces against you which you really don't want to.
Speaking of, does the national guard even have any experience with military fights? I'm pretty sure they haven't?
Then there's logistics. Russia will have to pool those forces together as soon as possible yet also be effective at it?
There's more but, I have to be missing something? Or is this really, really, that fucking dumb of a move? It feels like I have to be misunderstanding something here to the point I'm hesitant to post this comment. Because this feels like such a collosal mistake on so many levels. Like, they've done stupid stuff before but not that stupid.
Not that I'm the authority on the matter that you seek but.... we shall see. It certainly looks like Russia is scrambling and was underprepared for this situation. Not surprising IMO, I'd expect a...
Not that I'm the authority on the matter that you seek but....
we shall see. It certainly looks like Russia is scrambling and was underprepared for this situation. Not surprising IMO, I'd expect a mixture of "Ukraine won't escalate this conflict anyway", "yes sir, of course sir, the border defenses are well dug in, the troops trained and motivated, we're ready for whatever they throw at us, sir" and "well, if you're so well dug in and they won't attack here anyway, you won't mind if I divert all your resupply to the more active parts of the front?". With the pressure they're under, that's an easy "mistake" on the parts of Russian leadership to make. Or more correctly, it's not so much a mistake as a risky play. If you bank on "no attacks here", it makes sense to divert as much resources as possible.
The corollary of that (if I'm right) is that now Russia has to take Ukraine seriously along the entirety of the front now. Either you beef up defenses along the entire Russian border, or you run the risk of this happening again. The former probably entails diverting men and materiel from the previously active zones on Ukrainian soil. Which is good for ukraine-coin.
In a sentence, the way I see it is that Russia bluffed that Ukraine wasn't willing to seriously step on Russian soil, and Ukraine just called their bluff. The risk of calling that bluff was of course that international support could shift to Ukraine's disadvantage. I have yet to see an indication of this actually happening, but I probably also don't have an ear to the ground where it matters.
Yeah, it's not so much as that they're caught off guard as that there may not have been any plan at all if they're proven wrong in this scenario. Given how this scenario was always a possibility...
Yeah, it's not so much as that they're caught off guard as that there may not have been any plan at all if they're proven wrong in this scenario.
Given how this scenario was always a possibility at some point I'm amazed that they didn't even had a plan for what happened in such an event.
No matter what, the bad leadership in the Kremlin has been laid bare for everyone to see.
More than that, Russia either didn't even have the intel from surveillance to warn troops in advance, or they didn't have a functional intelligence apparatus that allowed this communication to get...
More than that, Russia either didn't even have the intel from surveillance to warn troops in advance, or they didn't have a functional intelligence apparatus that allowed this communication to get from the MoD to the Rosgvardia or whoever was stationed between the frontlines and Kursk.
To your earlier question, I do believe that some Rosgvardia soldiers have combat experience, or they got combat experience, but I'm not sure if those individuals at the beginning of the invasion ever really cycled back to their original units. Most of them are probably sunflowers now anyway. But the fact that some of these troops on the border, regardless of their branch, were sitting around drinking coffee while Ukraine launched an incursion, is just a huge fail across the board.
I think part of that might be the Soviet-style command structure where commands come from too high up and people on the ground aren't allowed to be flexible in their response to enemy actions, therefore they don't anticipate them well either. Due to that command structure, they'll suffer from more infighting between branches, reduced sharing of intel, and slower strategic responses because politics take priority over strategy. Russia isn't unique in this regard, but they sure are showing off!
Jumping back up here to highlight an important point you made: This article reiterates that Putin is probably operating under a principle that he's always right, or has the best top-level view of...
Jumping back up here to highlight an important point you made:
Or Putin just flat out doesn't listen to his general staff.
This article reiterates that Putin is probably operating under a principle that he's always right, or has the best top-level view of the situation. And considering how the Soviet-era military hierarchy works, that is the standard assumption people at high levels must make, because their position dictates that they must have that "best" view. His staff's views are below his, therefore any different conclusion they come to is lacking in the scope of his own conclusions.
"And when he tried to share the information that he had, Putin wouldn’t allow it. He wants to stop the communication of anything that will raise the level of anxiety in Russian society."
Basically, Putin knows best. I have seen speculation that, since working in the KGB (and working his way up from there), that Putin has bought into a lot of his own propaganda, which I think is likely the natural habitat of dictators and narcissists. That would also explain his surprise when Russians bought into the anti-vax propaganda that the Russians themselves were spreading.
Given how the reactions of Russia points to my comment being accurate, which is still difficult to wrap my head around, I wouldn't even rule out incidents of friendly fire between the the mixture...
Given how the reactions of Russia points to my comment being accurate, which is still difficult to wrap my head around, I wouldn't even rule out incidents of friendly fire between the the mixture of forces Putin has send to fight Ukraine. Low chance, but a slap dash mix with different communication styles, ways of fighting and loyalties to their respective commanders might actually make it viable for that to occur.
The chance is low of course but... Man, I'm amazed at how ill prepared Putin at least seems to have been for this scenario. Even for eventually believing your own propaganda that's extreme.
Speaking of
Basically, Putin knows best. I have seen speculation that, since working in the KGB (and working his way up from there), that Putin has bought into a lot of his own propaganda, which I think is likely the natural habitat of dictators and narcissists. That would also explain his surprise when Russians bought into the anti-vax propaganda that the Russians themselves were spreading.
I think the fact that he isolated himself heavily during the pandemic has made his mental state more questionable. It's after that that he began to have his ridiculous long tables, and seemingly lost touch of realpolitik.
Pair that with the amount of suicides out of windows with three bullet in their back that occured after the invasion begun, removing more people who disagreed with him on the top, the status apparatus of the Russian Federation is probably hollowed out.
If Trump loses the election I think there is a good chance Russia will crack before Ukraine. Difficult to say in what manner though.
Ukraine's top commander has said Kyiv's forces control 1,000 sq km of Russian territory as they press their biggest cross-border incursion in two-and-a-half years of full-scale war.
Worth keeping in mind that the fog of war and propaganda means it's difficult to verify any of this. If they actually managed to get that far north and control parts of the highway to Khursk...
Worth keeping in mind that the fog of war and propaganda means it's difficult to verify any of this.
If they actually managed to get that far north and control parts of the highway to Khursk capital it's really bad news for Russia. That said I've seen claims like this being proven wrong at some point before, so we'll see.
Sure, but "big if true" bits of information require more verification, not less. Sharing a rumor isn't more valuable because it's about something significant.. It would be "big if true" if Musk...
Sure, but "big if true" bits of information require more verification, not less. Sharing a rumor isn't more valuable because it's about something significant.. It would be "big if true" if Musk had announced that he was giving all of his money to charity and closing down Twitter. But it's not true, so it's not helpful to share.
Ukraine hits 4 Russian airbases in largest such attack, source says (Kyiv Independent) Not directly related to the ongoing incursion, but I don't think the timing is an accident. It makes sense to...
Ukrainian long-range drones hit four Russian airbases overnight on Aug. 14 in the largest attack on airfields in the war, a source in the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) told the Kyiv Independent.
Not directly related to the ongoing incursion, but I don't think the timing is an accident. It makes sense to me to launch a large drone strike while the enemy is in disarray.
Definitely indirectly related. Also related to the F-16s needing some semblance of air superiority to do some dirty things to Russian ground forces. Ukraine is going to keep denying the ability to...
Definitely indirectly related. Also related to the F-16s needing some semblance of air superiority to do some dirty things to Russian ground forces. Ukraine is going to keep denying the ability to interdict what aircraft they have.
Not entirely surprising, given how Ukraine has slowly been more allowed to attack more into Russia. With how attrition appears to favour Russia in raw macroeconomic numbers(which is misleading incidentally, as Russia's economic situation is unsustainable and only makes for good propaganda as well as keeping the war engine up), I imagine this is a very effective spit on the propaganda that Russia's citizens are in fact, safe and things will end up alright. I highly doubt that it's a coincidence this happens at the same time as the F-16s arrived in Ukraine, given that this will really increase the pressure on Putin's government.
Also, something I wonder, will the fact that this happened in Kursk where arguably the largest battle in history occurred affect the public perception in Russia? It's not like the infamous battle of Stalingrad, but still.
Unfortunately, the New York Times has been reporting that this probably won't do much to improve their prospects.
That was two days ago. More recent reporting is very slightly less pessimistic about it, though.
It's a shame. If there were any justice in the world, this disgusting, pointless invasion would result in Putin being overthrown.
While I agree on their analysis as a singular occurrence and event, it misses parts of the bigger picture. This has for quite some time been a war of attrition. Whose morale keeps up. Whose economy sustains. Whose allies will keep supporting. Whose government will crumble first. Those are all unknowns as to what's the final straw, what will last the longest. And while this probing invasion won't do much on any of them immediately as the shock is weak, the wave penetrates these deeply.
From a tactical perspective, this was nothing. From a strategic I suspect it's bigger than most people think. How big is an unknown, however. And most likely it will take years, if not decades, after the war for us to know how big due to the fog of war.
The NYT analysis overlooks why the conscripts aren't being used in Ukraine. Early on in the invasion the Kremlin found out that use of conscripts in battle was extremely unpopular and even had to make statements about some conscripts who died early on to place blame on others for how they got into combat. Now Russia must choose between sending conscripts to die (or be captured en masse as the case as often been) or redirect 'volunteer' troops from other offensives to try to stop the Ukrainian advance.
It also misses the fact that now that Russia's territorial integrity has been directly challenged, there will be enormous pressure to retake that land. Ukraine has already made extensive preparations to defend the territory captured, and while they're probably willing to give that land back, the Ukrainians intend to make the Russians pay an extremely heavy price for it. That price might seem even higher since Russia was about to switch to defense for a tactical pause. Now they must either continue attacking without a chance to rebuild forces, or essentially give that territory away for the foreseeable future.
Yeah, in all honesty the more this goes on the more this looks like a very good move on Ukraine's side.
Pair all what you said about conscripts and territory with the state of the Russian economy and it actually becomes even worse for the Kgremlin. More man will be needed per km frontline, especially for Russia, when inflation is high due to lower goods and less manpower in the economy. Unemployment is incredibly low in Russia because people are dying and fleeing.
And taking the territory back with what's close to WW1 human wave tactics boy. That'll cost even more.
I don't think Russia has a good move here. All actions they can take will really hurt their war effort long term.
Russia: State of emergency in Kursk amid incursion (Deutsche Welle)
How dare they invade us after we invaded them.
So terribly unfair! Why can't they stay in their country while we assemble forces and conduct artillery barrages just behind our side of the border while yelling 'neener neener neener, you're not allowed to touch us!'. Waah!
(cough) Ahem.
My apologies for reducing the overall quality of this discussion in the expression of my viewpoint. I felt childishness was.... warranted in this specific case.
Yeah the doublespeak even behind calling it a “provocation” is despicable.
From Ukraine side currently no comments.
Why would they comment? They have a new game plan and they're not telling anyone what it is.
All the military strategists are strategizing and reasoning, but Ukraine are staying tight lipped.
My theory (and I am clueless) is that they are going to go for "little fires, everywhere" approach to thin out Russia's military, then have at it on a major assault somewhere.
Scatter the defence, then hard target. Once done, sit back and ask if Russia have had enough yet or did they fancy some more?
Agree. Also leverage in a hypothetical future peace talks.
I suspect that this may be a bigger point than most think. Within peace talks Russia has wanted to get more territory than it even controls when drawn at the front lines.
The morale boost, straining logistical issues of Russia further, slapping Putin's propaganda hard are all great accomplishments too. From a pure fighting perspective this may have been next to nothing but on a military and political level this is really going to help Ukraine.
Also, I think this might be the last time Russia got humiliated like this since the general staff switch? This may also hurt the image that Russia fixed its many, many issues in the military.
I wonder if the crowd that kept screaming their lungs out “peace at any costs” will still be screaming that if Ukraine holds russian territory
I think that one of the points: "oh, you want peace talk and each side will hold currently controlled territories? Then we will have Kursk. And more.".
One Of Ukraine’s Toughest And Fastest Brigades Has Joined The Invasion Of Russia (Forbes)
Just to add to this, the 80th and sister unit 82nd Air Assault Brigades are well-trained troops and have a long combat history both since the 2022 Russian invasion and during the Russian invasion of Crimea. In the past they've been given opportunities to regenerate their combat effectiveness and stage themselves for counter-attacks while waiting for the appropriate strategic situations to develop. So these are not forces that are committed to the fight without consideration of their merits. They're also mechanized units and are thought to be equipped with some NATO equipment, including a compliment of Challenger 2 tanks from the UK, which have proven to have a high survivability rating for its crew.
Additionally, it was reported that the initial advance towards Russia's Kursk might indeed have been a fairly small number of forces, although I'd think any number of advancing tanks needs at least a fairly robust supply line behind it. A Ukrainian official has since said "It is a lot more … Thousands." Sounds a lot like the kind of situation where a competent commander is committing experienced troops to a situation that has proven advantageous and has a willingness to exploit it as much as strategically possible. Or maybe they were downplaying the size of the fighting force to keep Russia off-balance since Russia may not have realized the scale of the assault from the outset.
Either way, the longer this incursion into Russia lasts, the better planned and executed it looks with real goals and real support at a theater level. That gives me a lot of confidence in the Ukrainian command side of things. And of course they're getting a lot of good intelligence as well, which is comforting, given the situation.
I had to check whether the ISW actually said that and yes, yes they did. In fact:
I have to ask here if there's someone here who actually knows whether this is as stupid as it sounds. Because when I consider what this means and what it will look like is basically:
There's more but, I have to be missing something? Or is this really, really, that fucking dumb of a move? It feels like I have to be misunderstanding something here to the point I'm hesitant to post this comment. Because this feels like such a collosal mistake on so many levels. Like, they've done stupid stuff before but not that stupid.
Not that I'm the authority on the matter that you seek but....
we shall see. It certainly looks like Russia is scrambling and was underprepared for this situation. Not surprising IMO, I'd expect a mixture of "Ukraine won't escalate this conflict anyway", "yes sir, of course sir, the border defenses are well dug in, the troops trained and motivated, we're ready for whatever they throw at us, sir" and "well, if you're so well dug in and they won't attack here anyway, you won't mind if I divert all your resupply to the more active parts of the front?". With the pressure they're under, that's an easy "mistake" on the parts of Russian leadership to make. Or more correctly, it's not so much a mistake as a risky play. If you bank on "no attacks here", it makes sense to divert as much resources as possible.
The corollary of that (if I'm right) is that now Russia has to take Ukraine seriously along the entirety of the front now. Either you beef up defenses along the entire Russian border, or you run the risk of this happening again. The former probably entails diverting men and materiel from the previously active zones on Ukrainian soil. Which is good for ukraine-coin.
In a sentence, the way I see it is that Russia bluffed that Ukraine wasn't willing to seriously step on Russian soil, and Ukraine just called their bluff. The risk of calling that bluff was of course that international support could shift to Ukraine's disadvantage. I have yet to see an indication of this actually happening, but I probably also don't have an ear to the ground where it matters.
Yeah, it's not so much as that they're caught off guard as that there may not have been any plan at all if they're proven wrong in this scenario.
Given how this scenario was always a possibility at some point I'm amazed that they didn't even had a plan for what happened in such an event.
No matter what, the bad leadership in the Kremlin has been laid bare for everyone to see.
More than that, Russia either didn't even have the intel from surveillance to warn troops in advance, or they didn't have a functional intelligence apparatus that allowed this communication to get from the MoD to the Rosgvardia or whoever was stationed between the frontlines and Kursk.
To your earlier question, I do believe that some Rosgvardia soldiers have combat experience, or they got combat experience, but I'm not sure if those individuals at the beginning of the invasion ever really cycled back to their original units. Most of them are probably sunflowers now anyway. But the fact that some of these troops on the border, regardless of their branch, were sitting around drinking coffee while Ukraine launched an incursion, is just a huge fail across the board.
I think part of that might be the Soviet-style command structure where commands come from too high up and people on the ground aren't allowed to be flexible in their response to enemy actions, therefore they don't anticipate them well either. Due to that command structure, they'll suffer from more infighting between branches, reduced sharing of intel, and slower strategic responses because politics take priority over strategy. Russia isn't unique in this regard, but they sure are showing off!
Jumping back up here to highlight an important point you made:
This article reiterates that Putin is probably operating under a principle that he's always right, or has the best top-level view of the situation. And considering how the Soviet-era military hierarchy works, that is the standard assumption people at high levels must make, because their position dictates that they must have that "best" view. His staff's views are below his, therefore any different conclusion they come to is lacking in the scope of his own conclusions.
Basically, Putin knows best. I have seen speculation that, since working in the KGB (and working his way up from there), that Putin has bought into a lot of his own propaganda, which I think is likely the natural habitat of dictators and narcissists. That would also explain his surprise when Russians bought into the anti-vax propaganda that the Russians themselves were spreading.
Given how the reactions of Russia points to my comment being accurate, which is still difficult to wrap my head around, I wouldn't even rule out incidents of friendly fire between the the mixture of forces Putin has send to fight Ukraine. Low chance, but a slap dash mix with different communication styles, ways of fighting and loyalties to their respective commanders might actually make it viable for that to occur.
The chance is low of course but... Man, I'm amazed at how ill prepared Putin at least seems to have been for this scenario. Even for eventually believing your own propaganda that's extreme.
Speaking of
I think the fact that he isolated himself heavily during the pandemic has made his mental state more questionable. It's after that that he began to have his ridiculous long tables, and seemingly lost touch of realpolitik.
Pair that with the amount of suicides out of windows with three bullet in their back that occured after the invasion begun, removing more people who disagreed with him on the top, the status apparatus of the Russian Federation is probably hollowed out.
If Trump loses the election I think there is a good chance Russia will crack before Ukraine. Difficult to say in what manner though.
Ukraine claims to control 1,000 sq km of Russian territory (BBC)
Ukraine might already be at Lgov:
https://www.dailykos.com/comments/2262526/89361508#comment_89361508
Worth keeping in mind that the fog of war and propaganda means it's difficult to verify any of this.
If they actually managed to get that far north and control parts of the highway to Khursk capital it's really bad news for Russia. That said I've seen claims like this being proven wrong at some point before, so we'll see.
Sure, it can easily be misinformation, but Lgov can become tactically important, so big if true.
Sure, but "big if true" bits of information require more verification, not less. Sharing a rumor isn't more valuable because it's about something significant.. It would be "big if true" if Musk had announced that he was giving all of his money to charity and closing down Twitter. But it's not true, so it's not helpful to share.
Happily, we can wait and see. And since the source is Ukrainian, I hardly worry on the impact of it being false.
Ukraine hits 4 Russian airbases in largest such attack, source says (Kyiv Independent)
Not directly related to the ongoing incursion, but I don't think the timing is an accident. It makes sense to me to launch a large drone strike while the enemy is in disarray.
Definitely indirectly related. Also related to the F-16s needing some semblance of air superiority to do some dirty things to Russian ground forces. Ukraine is going to keep denying the ability to interdict what aircraft they have.