This will trigger an election, where it’s expected that conservatives (CDU) will overwhelmingly destroy the current center left coalition, which is deeply unpopular. That sounds familiar.
This will trigger an election, where it’s expected that conservatives (CDU) will overwhelmingly destroy the current center left coalition, which is deeply unpopular.
It won't automatically trigger an election though and it'll be some time until it actually takes place. For now Olaf Scholz remains chancellor until he asks the parliament to vote on their trust...
It won't automatically trigger an election though and it'll be some time until it actually takes place. For now Olaf Scholz remains chancellor until he asks the parliament to vote on their trust in him. Only if the result is that they don't (which is to be expected in this scenario) he will suggest to the president to dissolve the parliament within 21 days, which will in turn trigger an election within 60 days.
As things stand right now, the remaining members of the government (who remain in their positions for now) plan to let the parliament vote on some legislation they consider absolutely necessary throughout december. We'll see how that pans out. Only in the week of January 15 will Olaf Scholz have them vote on their trust in him, which will trigger the abovementioned events.
There are some other alternatives (such as forming a government with a different constellation of parties that have a majority in parliament), but they are rather unlikely.
This means the election will only take place in March 2025, which is quite some time for majorities to shift. But if an election were to be held today, polls suggest the conservative center-right CDU would be the strongest party with 34% of votes. Unfortunately the far-right AfD is also polling at around 17% at the moment. The center-left SPD (of which Olaf Scholz is a member) currently holds at around 16%, the Green party (their coalition party) at 11%, and the FDP (of which Christian Lindner is a member) at only 4% - which would mean FDP would actually drop out of parliament with this result, which may be one of the reasons they lately refused almost everything the other two wanted to do in a not overly constructive manner.
All in all I'm not overly optimistic (- for the record, I'm no fan of CDU and FDP, but the comparatively strong AfD is the most concerning thing about the current polls), but as I said above, history has shown that 4 months can change a quite a bit with regards to polls, especially if party leadership changes in the meantime.
Edit: initially got the date in january slightly wrong. its 15, not 6.
I can't stand the CDU, but my biggest fear is that they'll cave and cooperate with the AfD. I think another CDU/SPD coalition wouldn't be ideal but I'll take it as an alternative to that.
I can't stand the CDU, but my biggest fear is that they'll cave and cooperate with the AfD. I think another CDU/SPD coalition wouldn't be ideal but I'll take it as an alternative to that.
Also the CDU moving even further to the right into AfD territory in order to win back voters is a questionable trend/strategy I'm afraid we'll see more of in the upcoming months.
Also the CDU moving even further to the right into AfD territory in order to win back voters is a questionable trend/strategy I'm afraid we'll see more of in the upcoming months.
This will trigger an election, where it’s expected that conservatives (CDU) will overwhelmingly destroy the current center left coalition, which is deeply unpopular.
That sounds familiar.
It won't automatically trigger an election though and it'll be some time until it actually takes place. For now Olaf Scholz remains chancellor until he asks the parliament to vote on their trust in him. Only if the result is that they don't (which is to be expected in this scenario) he will suggest to the president to dissolve the parliament within 21 days, which will in turn trigger an election within 60 days.
As things stand right now, the remaining members of the government (who remain in their positions for now) plan to let the parliament vote on some legislation they consider absolutely necessary throughout december. We'll see how that pans out. Only in the week of January 15 will Olaf Scholz have them vote on their trust in him, which will trigger the abovementioned events.
There are some other alternatives (such as forming a government with a different constellation of parties that have a majority in parliament), but they are rather unlikely.
This means the election will only take place in March 2025, which is quite some time for majorities to shift. But if an election were to be held today, polls suggest the conservative center-right CDU would be the strongest party with 34% of votes. Unfortunately the far-right AfD is also polling at around 17% at the moment. The center-left SPD (of which Olaf Scholz is a member) currently holds at around 16%, the Green party (their coalition party) at 11%, and the FDP (of which Christian Lindner is a member) at only 4% - which would mean FDP would actually drop out of parliament with this result, which may be one of the reasons they lately refused almost everything the other two wanted to do in a not overly constructive manner.
All in all I'm not overly optimistic (- for the record, I'm no fan of CDU and FDP, but the comparatively strong AfD is the most concerning thing about the current polls), but as I said above, history has shown that 4 months can change a quite a bit with regards to polls, especially if party leadership changes in the meantime.
Edit: initially got the date in january slightly wrong. its 15, not 6.
I can't stand the CDU, but my biggest fear is that they'll cave and cooperate with the AfD. I think another CDU/SPD coalition wouldn't be ideal but I'll take it as an alternative to that.
Also the CDU moving even further to the right into AfD territory in order to win back voters is a questionable trend/strategy I'm afraid we'll see more of in the upcoming months.
Cool timing...