This will trigger an election, where it’s expected that conservatives (CDU) will overwhelmingly destroy the current center left coalition, which is deeply unpopular. That sounds familiar.
This will trigger an election, where it’s expected that conservatives (CDU) will overwhelmingly destroy the current center left coalition, which is deeply unpopular.
It won't automatically trigger an election though and it'll be some time until it actually takes place. For now Olaf Scholz remains chancellor until he asks the parliament to vote on their trust...
It won't automatically trigger an election though and it'll be some time until it actually takes place. For now Olaf Scholz remains chancellor until he asks the parliament to vote on their trust in him. Only if the result is that they don't (which is to be expected in this scenario) he will suggest to the president to dissolve the parliament within 21 days, which will in turn trigger an election within 60 days.
As things stand right now, the remaining members of the government (who remain in their positions for now) plan to let the parliament vote on some legislation they consider absolutely necessary throughout december. We'll see how that pans out. Only in the week of January 15 will Olaf Scholz have them vote on their trust in him, which will trigger the abovementioned events.
There are some other alternatives (such as forming a government with a different constellation of parties that have a majority in parliament), but they are rather unlikely.
This means the election will only take place in March 2025, which is quite some time for majorities to shift. But if an election were to be held today, polls suggest the conservative center-right CDU would be the strongest party with 34% of votes. Unfortunately the far-right AfD is also polling at around 17% at the moment. The center-left SPD (of which Olaf Scholz is a member) currently holds at around 16%, the Green party (their coalition party) at 11%, and the FDP (of which Christian Lindner is a member) at only 4% - which would mean FDP would actually drop out of parliament with this result, which may be one of the reasons they lately refused almost everything the other two wanted to do in a not overly constructive manner.
All in all I'm not overly optimistic (- for the record, I'm no fan of CDU and FDP, but the comparatively strong AfD is the most concerning thing about the current polls), but as I said above, history has shown that 4 months can change a quite a bit with regards to polls, especially if party leadership changes in the meantime.
Edit: initially got the date in january slightly wrong. its 15, not 6.
I can't stand the CDU, but my biggest fear is that they'll cave and cooperate with the AfD. I think another CDU/SPD coalition wouldn't be ideal but I'll take it as an alternative to that.
I can't stand the CDU, but my biggest fear is that they'll cave and cooperate with the AfD. I think another CDU/SPD coalition wouldn't be ideal but I'll take it as an alternative to that.
Also the CDU moving even further to the right into AfD territory in order to win back voters is a questionable trend/strategy I'm afraid we'll see more of in the upcoming months.
Also the CDU moving even further to the right into AfD territory in order to win back voters is a questionable trend/strategy I'm afraid we'll see more of in the upcoming months.
With their Mr Burns caricature at the helm I have exactly zero hope for this country and I have already set my mind to leave it if he gets to become chancellor. Nothing good can come from this...
With their Mr Burns caricature at the helm I have exactly zero hope for this country and I have already set my mind to leave it if he gets to become chancellor.
Nothing good can come from this anymore with the incessant greens bashing in the media and the infuriating reluctance whether or not to go through with banning the obviously fascist AfD this country is running full speed into the abyss and I don't want to be here for it.
I did wake up my neighbors this morning though when I read Lindner has been sacked. About fucking time.
Since I moved here from the US my options to leave are more limited (or at least involve more faff), but I also have lost a lot of my faith that moving's gonna fix things. I think having already...
Since I moved here from the US my options to leave are more limited (or at least involve more faff), but I also have lost a lot of my faith that moving's gonna fix things. I think having already had the cold shower that is realizing Germany isn't a mystical progressive promised land (probably not an uncommon experience for American immigrants) has disillusioned me.
Where is there to go that's better, at this point? The rest of Europe is sliding to the right just as fast, if not faster. It'd be harder for me to get trans healthcare literally anywhere else in Europe. I'm very scared of the future here, but I have no idea what a way out looks like. Even if I do end up moving, I feel like I'll still be trapped.
I wish I knew... Any recommendations are most welcome. I've been thinking about New Zealand, Argentina or one of its neighbors, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, some small Asian country... but I...
Where is there to go that's better, at this point?
I wish I knew... Any recommendations are most welcome.
I've been thinking about New Zealand, Argentina or one of its neighbors, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, some small Asian country... but I haven't dared look too much into and I already know some countries on this list are not viable at all. But now is the time to get serious about it and weigh off my options, that's all I can do at the moment.
If my wife and I move, it'll be to Norway because she's Norwegian and her family's there. But I'm not sure even that's an option that's really quantifiably better for us than Germany, other than...
If my wife and I move, it'll be to Norway because she's Norwegian and her family's there. But I'm not sure even that's an option that's really quantifiably better for us than Germany, other than her personal connection and the lack of a language barrier for her. They're infinitely worse on trans healthcare (which is the main reason we haven't moved already) and both cost of living and the job market aren't exactly better there.
A friend sent me this (caution, dead bird site link): (a headline screenshot from December 2021) The quoted tweet is a news story about a state CDU leader having met with someone in AfD leadership...
they’ll cave and cooperate with the AfD
A friend sent me this (caution, dead bird site link):
CDU party leader: Whoever cooperates with AfD is thrown out of our party
(a headline screenshot from December 2021)
The quoted tweet is a news story about a state CDU leader having met with someone in AfD leadership for presumably the first time ever…
I also do not like this direction at all, but maybe we have time to swing opinions around. The idea that the party of ≈20 years of no progress is now supposedly the savior for everything (as well as far-right extremists being part of government) needs to die.
Ah yes, thank you. I knew there was a site like this but it’s been too long to remember, plus I wasn’t sure if maybe they weren’t around anymore due to some Elon games…
Ah yes, thank you. I knew there was a site like this but it’s been too long to remember, plus I wasn’t sure if maybe they weren’t around anymore due to some Elon games…
No problem, the vast majority of Nitter site WAS down due to Elon remove the old loophole*. This and xcancel survive partly due to aggressively prevent scrapper and using actual (throwaway)...
No problem, the vast majority of Nitter site WAS down due to Elon remove the old loophole*. This and xcancel survive partly due to aggressively prevent scrapper and using actual (throwaway) account.
Twitter Android app used to generate temporary account that last 30 days
Yeah I remember when the CDU politicians meeting with AfD in lower positions was in the news and there was sufficient backlash then... but I really am worried that they'll gradually slide down...
Yeah I remember when the CDU politicians meeting with AfD in lower positions was in the news and there was sufficient backlash then... but I really am worried that they'll gradually slide down that slope over time.
This will trigger an election, where it’s expected that conservatives (CDU) will overwhelmingly destroy the current center left coalition, which is deeply unpopular.
That sounds familiar.
It won't automatically trigger an election though and it'll be some time until it actually takes place. For now Olaf Scholz remains chancellor until he asks the parliament to vote on their trust in him. Only if the result is that they don't (which is to be expected in this scenario) he will suggest to the president to dissolve the parliament within 21 days, which will in turn trigger an election within 60 days.
As things stand right now, the remaining members of the government (who remain in their positions for now) plan to let the parliament vote on some legislation they consider absolutely necessary throughout december. We'll see how that pans out. Only in the week of January 15 will Olaf Scholz have them vote on their trust in him, which will trigger the abovementioned events.
There are some other alternatives (such as forming a government with a different constellation of parties that have a majority in parliament), but they are rather unlikely.
This means the election will only take place in March 2025, which is quite some time for majorities to shift. But if an election were to be held today, polls suggest the conservative center-right CDU would be the strongest party with 34% of votes. Unfortunately the far-right AfD is also polling at around 17% at the moment. The center-left SPD (of which Olaf Scholz is a member) currently holds at around 16%, the Green party (their coalition party) at 11%, and the FDP (of which Christian Lindner is a member) at only 4% - which would mean FDP would actually drop out of parliament with this result, which may be one of the reasons they lately refused almost everything the other two wanted to do in a not overly constructive manner.
All in all I'm not overly optimistic (- for the record, I'm no fan of CDU and FDP, but the comparatively strong AfD is the most concerning thing about the current polls), but as I said above, history has shown that 4 months can change a quite a bit with regards to polls, especially if party leadership changes in the meantime.
Edit: initially got the date in january slightly wrong. its 15, not 6.
I can't stand the CDU, but my biggest fear is that they'll cave and cooperate with the AfD. I think another CDU/SPD coalition wouldn't be ideal but I'll take it as an alternative to that.
Also the CDU moving even further to the right into AfD territory in order to win back voters is a questionable trend/strategy I'm afraid we'll see more of in the upcoming months.
With their Mr Burns caricature at the helm I have exactly zero hope for this country and I have already set my mind to leave it if he gets to become chancellor.
Nothing good can come from this anymore with the incessant greens bashing in the media and the infuriating reluctance whether or not to go through with banning the obviously fascist AfD this country is running full speed into the abyss and I don't want to be here for it.
I did wake up my neighbors this morning though when I read Lindner has been sacked. About fucking time.
Since I moved here from the US my options to leave are more limited (or at least involve more faff), but I also have lost a lot of my faith that moving's gonna fix things. I think having already had the cold shower that is realizing Germany isn't a mystical progressive promised land (probably not an uncommon experience for American immigrants) has disillusioned me.
Where is there to go that's better, at this point? The rest of Europe is sliding to the right just as fast, if not faster. It'd be harder for me to get trans healthcare literally anywhere else in Europe. I'm very scared of the future here, but I have no idea what a way out looks like. Even if I do end up moving, I feel like I'll still be trapped.
I wish I knew... Any recommendations are most welcome.
I've been thinking about New Zealand, Argentina or one of its neighbors, Switzerland, Sweden, Denmark, some small Asian country... but I haven't dared look too much into and I already know some countries on this list are not viable at all. But now is the time to get serious about it and weigh off my options, that's all I can do at the moment.
If my wife and I move, it'll be to Norway because she's Norwegian and her family's there. But I'm not sure even that's an option that's really quantifiably better for us than Germany, other than her personal connection and the lack of a language barrier for her. They're infinitely worse on trans healthcare (which is the main reason we haven't moved already) and both cost of living and the job market aren't exactly better there.
A friend sent me this (caution, dead bird site link):
(a headline screenshot from December 2021)
The quoted tweet is a news story about a state CDU leader having met with someone in AfD leadership for presumably the first time ever…
I also do not like this direction at all, but maybe we have time to swing opinions around. The idea that the party of ≈20 years of no progress is now supposedly the savior for everything (as well as far-right extremists being part of government) needs to die.
Nitter link for those who don't want to visit twitter directly
Ah yes, thank you. I knew there was a site like this but it’s been too long to remember, plus I wasn’t sure if maybe they weren’t around anymore due to some Elon games…
No problem, the vast majority of Nitter site WAS down due to Elon remove the old loophole*. This and xcancel survive partly due to aggressively prevent scrapper and using actual (throwaway) account.
Yeah I remember when the CDU politicians meeting with AfD in lower positions was in the news and there was sufficient backlash then... but I really am worried that they'll gradually slide down that slope over time.
Cool timing...