I wonder if China is planning to pull another Tienanmen crackdown or is just blustering. If they go for the crackdown, it's not going to go as well as they hope, with all of it doubtless being...
I wonder if China is planning to pull another Tienanmen crackdown or is just blustering. If they go for the crackdown, it's not going to go as well as they hope, with all of it doubtless being captured on multiple videos. They can cut the internet and jam to their heart's content but that won't stop the footage from getting out. People will be expecting it and will prepare. This isn't the 80s. They won't be able to dodge the fallout by censoring it this time.
Yeah, and if they do actually pull another Tienanmen and it gets out (which it will... there are a LOT of Western journalists in Hong Kong ATM), suddenly all the pushback against the Trump tariffs...
Yeah, and if they do actually pull another Tienanmen and it gets out (which it will... there are a LOT of Western journalists in Hong Kong ATM), suddenly all the pushback against the Trump tariffs targeting China may suddenly vanish, and it may even result in widespread adoption of economic sanctions against them from Western countries. It's my hope that the Chinese government is aware/afraid of that potentiality and so they're essentially just bluffing in the hopes of scaring the protestors into submission... but who knows these days. :(
Yeah, this is Hong Kong we're talking about. That's at the top of the list of the world's most epic cities. It's not like this is going down deep inside China.
Yeah, this is Hong Kong we're talking about. That's at the top of the list of the world's most epic cities. It's not like this is going down deep inside China.
Not to mention the fact that a significant portion of native Hongkongers are British passport holders or, having given up their Chinese Citizenship (since China doesn't recognize dual...
Not to mention the fact that a significant portion of native Hongkongers are British passport holders or, having given up their Chinese Citizenship (since China doesn't recognize dual citizenship), are now outright British Citizens too... so the Chinese have to be a little more careful these days about who they target during civil unrest there.
There are also a lot of Hong Kongers who hold Canadian citizenship with (in 2011) about 300,000 Canadians living there. For comparison that's about 4% of Hong Kong's current population, is a...
There are also a lot of Hong Kongers who hold Canadian citizenship with (in 2011) about 300,000 Canadians living there. For comparison that's about 4% of Hong Kong's current population, is a larger population than some major Canadian cities, and represents the largest group of Canadians outside of Canada or the US. Around the time of the 1997 handover many Hong Kongers moved to Canada and became citizens, and while many stayed, many also have gone back or split their time between Canada and Hong Kong. There are also 500,000 people in Canada who claim Hong Kongese descent.
Though Canada might not have the political clout of the UK numbers like these show that this is far from being an "internal" matter for China and that any crackdown will affect hundreds of thousands of citizens of many countries.
I imagine like all landed immigrants they can generally stay for the duration of their Visa, which they can continually try to renew before it expires, but since they are no longer Chinese...
I imagine like all landed immigrants they can generally stay for the duration of their Visa, which they can continually try to renew before it expires, but since they are no longer Chinese citizens I also imagine that should the Chinese government wish to be rid of them, they could be deported without them having much ability to fight against that decision.
Among the 33,733 citizens of the United Kingdom living in Hong Kong, 19,405 are white, 6,893 are Chinese, 2,337 are Indian, 1,047 are Pakistani, 829 are Nepalese, 273 are other Asians, 227 are Filipino, 98 are Thai, 40 are Japanese, and 40 are Indonesian. 2,544 other Britons are of a different ethnicity or race.
As of May 2007, there were 800,000 holders of valid BN(O) passports. Some 2.6 million out of the 3.4 million British Nationals (Overseas) did not renew their passports upon expiry.[3] As at 31 December 2015, there were only about 143,200 holders of BN(O) passports.[4]
As British National (Overseas) cannot be passed through jus sanguinis to children of current BN(O)s, any children born on or after 1 July 1997 to parents with British National (Overseas) status only acquired either Chinese nationality or British Overseas Citizen status on birth (although it is possible for a BOC with no other nationalities to be registered as a British Citizen). Any British Dependent Territory Citizens with connections to Hong Kong who had failed to register themselves as British Nationals (Overseas) by the end of 30 June 1997 would also be ineligible to make further claims for BN(O) from 1 July 1997, and those people would either become Chinese nationals or British Overseas Citizens.
Based on existing restrictions, the number of British National (Overseas) passports in circulation, therefore, would continue to decline over the next decades, and will, at some point in the future, fall to zero, as current passport holders pass away.
Does China care about the international reaction, though? They haven't seemed to care up till now. They don't care what the rest of us think about them. It's not like we can invade Hong Kong....
Does China care about the international reaction, though? They haven't seemed to care up till now. They don't care what the rest of us think about them.
It's not like we can invade Hong Kong. There's no way even the USA could justify this invasion. It's very much an internal matter, between a sovereign government and its citizens. Morally, we might deplore what's about to happen but, legally, there's nothing we can do.
The only thing China cares about is internal perceptions, and when they control the media, they control the message that gets out to their people.
I'm honestly not sure. I can believe they think they are untouchable and don't need to care, it's not like anyone has really given them a bloody nose before. I can also believe they'll backpedal...
I'm honestly not sure. I can believe they think they are untouchable and don't need to care, it's not like anyone has really given them a bloody nose before. I can also believe they'll backpedal overnight if every single western nation hits them with sanctions and their economy starts to collapse because of it. That is absolutely on the table if they get reckless and display the same lack of regard for life they've shown in the past. So is reclaiming by fiat all Chinese assets outside of China itself - those properties can revert to their own countries real fast if it comes to that, decimating Chinese businesses and investments. They haven't exactly been the best business partners with their wanton theft of intellectual property, either, so I don't see a lot of love and goodwill that would lead others to stick up for them.
I'd be surprised if it comes to that, though. I don't think they are anywhere near that stupid. Instead I'd expect them to walk out some highly effective non-lethal technologies and a hell of a lot of manpower to manage the situation, then steamroll the protest and jail everyone.
This has been my thinking as well, but I did see one compelling argument to the contrary: that a military incursion into Hong Kong pretty much signals the death of its administrative independence,...
This has been my thinking as well, but I did see one compelling argument to the contrary: that a military incursion into Hong Kong pretty much signals the death of its administrative independence, at which point its status as Asia's financial hub evaporates (no faith remaining in the freedom of the market or the currency), and China's economy as a whole takes a major hit.
It's a similar series of events to those that @Amarok mentioned, but driven by the amoral self interest of large financial firms rather than the moral outrage of the international community. Sadly I have a lot more confidence in the former than the latter.
An opinion piece on the subject: Would China risk another Tiananmen in Hong Kong? (For context this article has been reprinted in a few places including here in the Hong Kong Free Press which,...
I wonder if China is planning to pull another Tienanmen crackdown or is just blustering.
(For context this article has been reprinted in a few places including here in the Hong Kong Free Press which, among other things, supports the protests in Hong Kong.)
In short, the author argues that China would want to avoid another Tiananmen (which made them a pariah and caused a couple years of economic stagnation) and that their tactics have changed since then. What we can expect to see is more police action including covert operations where Chinese troops/police disguise themselves as local Hong Kong police, which has been alleged to have already happened. It is also speculated that the military/armed-police/whatever demonstrations in Shenzhen don't presage a Tiananmen-like crackdown but are supposed to weaken the resolve of protesters by making them think such a thing might happen.
Personally I don't really know what to think. This is a government that would and could orchestrate another Tiananmen-like massacre in response to these protests but I don't know what exactly it will take for them to believe that would be in their best interest. This could all end very badly but I think there is still hope that it could turn out for the best. There is no guarantee that the CCP will win this fight and be able to put down the protests no matter their methods. Despite pessimism being at an all-time high across the globe no authoritarian government is invulnerable and the protesters could still achieve their goals.
Thanks! I found an article covering this in more detail, so I'm going to edit the link to point to it. The original link was this tweet, also including a video:...
Thanks! I found an article covering this in more detail, so I'm going to edit the link to point to it.
I suspect this is the beginning of the end for Hong Kong's autonomy. It looks like the Chinese government is now just waiting for the right pretext to march in and impose military law on a...
I suspect this is the beginning of the end for Hong Kong's autonomy. It looks like the Chinese government is now just waiting for the right pretext to march in and impose military law on a supposedly wayward province.
I wonder if China is planning to pull another Tienanmen crackdown or is just blustering. If they go for the crackdown, it's not going to go as well as they hope, with all of it doubtless being captured on multiple videos. They can cut the internet and jam to their heart's content but that won't stop the footage from getting out. People will be expecting it and will prepare. This isn't the 80s. They won't be able to dodge the fallout by censoring it this time.
Yeah, and if they do actually pull another Tienanmen and it gets out (which it will... there are a LOT of Western journalists in Hong Kong ATM), suddenly all the pushback against the Trump tariffs targeting China may suddenly vanish, and it may even result in widespread adoption of economic sanctions against them from Western countries. It's my hope that the Chinese government is aware/afraid of that potentiality and so they're essentially just bluffing in the hopes of scaring the protestors into submission... but who knows these days. :(
Yeah, this is Hong Kong we're talking about. That's at the top of the list of the world's most epic cities. It's not like this is going down deep inside China.
Not to mention the fact that a significant portion of native Hongkongers are British passport holders or, having given up their Chinese Citizenship (since China doesn't recognize dual citizenship), are now outright British Citizens too... so the Chinese have to be a little more careful these days about who they target during civil unrest there.
There are also a lot of Hong Kongers who hold Canadian citizenship with (in 2011) about 300,000 Canadians living there. For comparison that's about 4% of Hong Kong's current population, is a larger population than some major Canadian cities, and represents the largest group of Canadians outside of Canada or the US. Around the time of the 1997 handover many Hong Kongers moved to Canada and became citizens, and while many stayed, many also have gone back or split their time between Canada and Hong Kong. There are also 500,000 people in Canada who claim Hong Kongese descent.
Though Canada might not have the political clout of the UK numbers like these show that this is far from being an "internal" matter for China and that any crackdown will affect hundreds of thousands of citizens of many countries.
I imagine like all landed immigrants they can generally stay for the duration of their Visa, which they can continually try to renew before it expires, but since they are no longer Chinese citizens I also imagine that should the Chinese government wish to be rid of them, they could be deported without them having much ability to fight against that decision.
Hong Kong's Chinese citizens who only have a British passport are in a much more awkward situation though, since while that theoretically provides them some measure of protection, how much and for how much longer that will be the case is currently up for debate. See:
How Brexit diminishes the rights of British Nationals overseas
Calls for extension of BNO rights at packed House of Lords event
p.s. To put things in perspective with some numbers and context:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Britons_in_Hong_Kong
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_National_(Overseas)_passport#From_2007_onwards
Does China care about the international reaction, though? They haven't seemed to care up till now. They don't care what the rest of us think about them.
It's not like we can invade Hong Kong. There's no way even the USA could justify this invasion. It's very much an internal matter, between a sovereign government and its citizens. Morally, we might deplore what's about to happen but, legally, there's nothing we can do.
The only thing China cares about is internal perceptions, and when they control the media, they control the message that gets out to their people.
I'm honestly not sure. I can believe they think they are untouchable and don't need to care, it's not like anyone has really given them a bloody nose before. I can also believe they'll backpedal overnight if every single western nation hits them with sanctions and their economy starts to collapse because of it. That is absolutely on the table if they get reckless and display the same lack of regard for life they've shown in the past. So is reclaiming by fiat all Chinese assets outside of China itself - those properties can revert to their own countries real fast if it comes to that, decimating Chinese businesses and investments. They haven't exactly been the best business partners with their wanton theft of intellectual property, either, so I don't see a lot of love and goodwill that would lead others to stick up for them.
I'd be surprised if it comes to that, though. I don't think they are anywhere near that stupid. Instead I'd expect them to walk out some highly effective non-lethal technologies and a hell of a lot of manpower to manage the situation, then steamroll the protest and jail everyone.
This has been my thinking as well, but I did see one compelling argument to the contrary: that a military incursion into Hong Kong pretty much signals the death of its administrative independence, at which point its status as Asia's financial hub evaporates (no faith remaining in the freedom of the market or the currency), and China's economy as a whole takes a major hit.
It's a similar series of events to those that @Amarok mentioned, but driven by the amoral self interest of large financial firms rather than the moral outrage of the international community. Sadly I have a lot more confidence in the former than the latter.
An opinion piece on the subject: Would China risk another Tiananmen in Hong Kong?
(For context this article has been reprinted in a few places including here in the Hong Kong Free Press which, among other things, supports the protests in Hong Kong.)
In short, the author argues that China would want to avoid another Tiananmen (which made them a pariah and caused a couple years of economic stagnation) and that their tactics have changed since then. What we can expect to see is more police action including covert operations where Chinese troops/police disguise themselves as local Hong Kong police, which has been alleged to have already happened. It is also speculated that the military/armed-police/whatever demonstrations in Shenzhen don't presage a Tiananmen-like crackdown but are supposed to weaken the resolve of protesters by making them think such a thing might happen.
Personally I don't really know what to think. This is a government that would and could orchestrate another Tiananmen-like massacre in response to these protests but I don't know what exactly it will take for them to believe that would be in their best interest. This could all end very badly but I think there is still hope that it could turn out for the best. There is no guarantee that the CCP will win this fight and be able to put down the protests no matter their methods. Despite pessimism being at an all-time high across the globe no authoritarian government is invulnerable and the protesters could still achieve their goals.
I'm concerned that Europe & the US, weakened and distracted by internal political strife, may not act, even if something awful is captured on video.
Other relevant videos:
https://twitter.com/erveza/status/1161005181120724992
https://twitter.com/freddie1999/status/1160189074206072832
https://twitter.com/Mxamus/status/1161010863450599426
Thanks! I found an article covering this in more detail, so I'm going to edit the link to point to it.
The original link was this tweet, also including a video: https://twitter.com/AlexandreKrausz/status/1160947525442056193
A friend of mine was just telling me that his company just put up a travel ban on going to HK for work
I suspect this is the beginning of the end for Hong Kong's autonomy. It looks like the Chinese government is now just waiting for the right pretext to march in and impose military law on a supposedly wayward province.
Tiananmen 2: Apathetic and complicit globe boogaloo...