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Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of October 7
This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.
This is an inherently political thread; please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.
I’m Running Out of Ways to Explain How Bad This Is
Archive link
Look! New York Times suddenly discovers Trump’s extensive ‘cognitive decline’
The NYT article: Trump’s Speeches, Increasingly Angry and Rambling, Reignite the Question of Age
In your first link I found the article about Maggie Haberman interesting. How she is the nyt political reporter and had a lot of info in the trump era but nothing during the Biden reign, and how she's not an author on the nyt article that calls out trump.
https://pressrun.media/p/maggie-haberman-and-what-happens
Ron DeSantis is refusing to take Harris' call on Hurricane Helene
DeSantis aside, Milton looks really really bad. I watched a meteorologist get teary eyed on air. Another said that the storm is approaching the mathematical limit of what's possible in our atmosphere.
The debris from Helene is still on the curbs in Tampa. And Milton keeps spinning up because the Gulf is so hot.
And people who are evacuating are struggling to make it out of town due to traffic and gas and a lack of rental cars and hotel rooms due to Helene.
Tim Walz uses question about socialism to promote government working on shared goals and fostering prosperity
Harris uses the View to propose medicare benefit for home health care
This would be transformative. When my mom was diagnosed with ALS, my business collapsed in large part because of how much time and energy I was spending trying to care for her and patch together a network of part time caregivers to look after her when I couldn't. It was harrowing. Having support to not have to cobble it together alone would have meant the world.
We can only get caregivers for my partner due to Medicaid waivers. If this applied to disabled folks it would bring us closer to being able to get married legally. (That said, it's impossible to keep them, the pay is too low and the benefits unaffordable. We're more than two weeks without again right now.)
House speaker says hurricane relief funds can wait until after congressional recess.
Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’
I know that the only poll that matters is the one that decides electors, but immediately jumping to polling house bias when the Harris campaign is worried about their own polling seems a little rash.
I don’t know about the rest of the article, but the advice to look at election models like 538 (and now Silver bulletin) makes sense. These models adjust for “house effects” (a track record showing consistent bias) and also down-weight polling results from less reliable organizations.
I don't know what you mean. Can you please clarify?
Biases on the table, but a party operative saying that “no, these polls are not legitimate opinion, and are being skewed for partisan reasons” makes me put on my skepticals, because that’s what I would say if I was paid a lot of money by a campaign to explain to their voting base why polls keep coming up bad.
But this is a situation where you don't have to trust the party operative, you can just look at who was polling, and their historical accuracy or lack thereof.
Ah, okay. That was what I thought, but I didn't want to write a response off an assumption.
Okay, let's lay out some basic facts:
You don't have to take my (or Rosenberg's) word for it. Here's a poast with an image showing some of the polls that have been released:
https://nitter.poast.org/admcrlsn/status/1844767513722126559
Using that image, you can go and find the polls yourself and verify what I'm saying. Then, you can find various aggregate poll trakcers (FiveThirtyEight, New York Times), check if they use any of the polls from this concentrated release (the best of them won't) and see how that skews their aggregated results.
For what it's worth, I don't actually recommend paying attention to the polls, regardless of this partisan polling strategy of "release en masse" and what not. I thought this was an interesting story to share, but worrying about polling results, especially this close to election day, isn't healthy.
To add to what you wrote, the Harris campaign has marshalled an incredible amount of resources to support her. She is ahead in money, in volunteers, in field offices, in endorsements
A month away from the election, it is the right time to volunteer if you can, but otherwise we wait to see if the effort, plans and strategies are enough. It's like a war. Morale matters. Enthusiasm and commitment and resolve matter. But also numbers of people matter. Money matters and strategy matters.
Polls report preferences but don't predict turnout percentages. Only votes cast will count.