16 votes

Weekly US politics news and updates thread - week of October 7

This thread is posted weekly - please try to post all relevant US political content in here, such as news, updates, opinion articles, etc. Extremely significant events may warrant a separate topic, but almost all should be posted in here.

This is an inherently political thread; please try to avoid antagonistic arguments and bickering matches. Comment threads that devolve into unproductive arguments may be removed so that the overall topic is able to continue.

19 comments

  1. [2]
    NoPants
    Link
    I’m Running Out of Ways to Explain How Bad This Is

    I’m Running Out of Ways to Explain How Bad This Is

    So much of the conversation around misinformation suggests that its primary job is to persuade. But as Michael Caulfield, an information researcher at the University of Washington, has argued, “The primary use of ‘misinformation’ is not to change the beliefs of other people at all. Instead, the vast majority of misinformation is offered as a service for people to maintain their beliefs in face of overwhelming evidence to the contrary.” This distinction is important, in part because it assigns agency to those who consume and share obviously fake information.

    What we’re witnessing online during and in the aftermath of these hurricanes is a group of people desperate to protect the dark, fictitious world they’ve built. Rather than deal with the realities of a warming planet hurling once-in-a-generation storms at them every few weeks, they’d rather malign and threaten meteorologists, who, in their minds, are “nothing but a trained subversive liar programmed to spew stupid shit to support the global warming bullshit,” as one X user put it.

    What is clear is that a new framework is needed to describe this fracturing. Misinformation is too technical, too freighted, and, after almost a decade of Trump, too political. Nor does it explain what is really happening, which is nothing less than a cultural assault on any person or institution that operates in reality. If you are a weatherperson, you’re a target. The same goes for journalists, election workers, scientists, doctors, and first responders. These jobs are different, but the thing they share is that they all must attend to and describe the world as it is. This makes them dangerous to people who cannot abide by the agonizing constraints of reality, as well as those who have financial and political interests in keeping up the charade.

    In one sense, these attacks—and their increased desperation—make sense. The world feels dark; for many people, it’s tempting to meet that with a retreat into the delusion that they’ve got everything figured out, that the powers that be have conspired against them directly. But in turning away, they exacerbate a crisis that has characterized the Trump era, one that will reverberate to Election Day and beyond. Americans are divided not just by political beliefs but by whether they believe in a shared reality—or desire one at all.

    9 votes
  2. [2]
    hungariantoast
    Link
    Look! New York Times suddenly discovers Trump’s extensive ‘cognitive decline’ The NYT article: Trump’s Speeches, Increasingly Angry and Rambling, Reignite the Question of Age
    5 votes
    1. iBleeedorange
      Link Parent
      In your first link I found the article about Maggie Haberman interesting. How she is the nyt political reporter and had a lot of info in the trump era but nothing during the Biden reign, and how...

      In your first link I found the article about Maggie Haberman interesting. How she is the nyt political reporter and had a lot of info in the trump era but nothing during the Biden reign, and how she's not an author on the nyt article that calls out trump.

      https://pressrun.media/p/maggie-haberman-and-what-happens

      1 vote
  3. [2]
    Halfloaf
    Link
    Ron DeSantis is refusing to take Harris' call on Hurricane Helene
    4 votes
    1. DefinitelyNotAFae
      Link Parent
      DeSantis aside, Milton looks really really bad. I watched a meteorologist get teary eyed on air. Another said that the storm is approaching the mathematical limit of what's possible in our...

      DeSantis aside, Milton looks really really bad. I watched a meteorologist get teary eyed on air. Another said that the storm is approaching the mathematical limit of what's possible in our atmosphere.

      The debris from Helene is still on the curbs in Tampa. And Milton keeps spinning up because the Gulf is so hot.

      And people who are evacuating are struggling to make it out of town due to traffic and gas and a lack of rental cars and hotel rooms due to Helene.

      8 votes
  4. [3]
    boxer_dogs_dance
    Link
    Harris uses the View to propose medicare benefit for home health care
    2 votes
    1. [2]
      MimicSquid
      Link Parent
      This would be transformative. When my mom was diagnosed with ALS, my business collapsed in large part because of how much time and energy I was spending trying to care for her and patch together a...

      This would be transformative. When my mom was diagnosed with ALS, my business collapsed in large part because of how much time and energy I was spending trying to care for her and patch together a network of part time caregivers to look after her when I couldn't. It was harrowing. Having support to not have to cobble it together alone would have meant the world.

      4 votes
      1. DefinitelyNotAFae
        Link Parent
        We can only get caregivers for my partner due to Medicaid waivers. If this applied to disabled folks it would bring us closer to being able to get married legally. (That said, it's impossible to...

        We can only get caregivers for my partner due to Medicaid waivers. If this applied to disabled folks it would bring us closer to being able to get married legally. (That said, it's impossible to keep them, the pay is too low and the benefits unaffordable. We're more than two weeks without again right now.)

        3 votes
  5. [8]
    hungariantoast
    Link
    Harris vs. Trump analyst tells panicky Dems: GOP is creating fake polls | ‘Desperate, unhinged, Trumpian’
    1 vote
    1. [7]
      moocow1452
      Link Parent
      I know that the only poll that matters is the one that decides electors, but immediately jumping to polling house bias when the Harris campaign is worried about their own polling seems a little rash.

      I know that the only poll that matters is the one that decides electors, but immediately jumping to polling house bias when the Harris campaign is worried about their own polling seems a little rash.

      5 votes
      1. skybrian
        Link Parent
        I don’t know about the rest of the article, but the advice to look at election models like 538 (and now Silver bulletin) makes sense. These models adjust for “house effects” (a track record...

        I don’t know about the rest of the article, but the advice to look at election models like 538 (and now Silver bulletin) makes sense. These models adjust for “house effects” (a track record showing consistent bias) and also down-weight polling results from less reliable organizations.

        3 votes
      2. [5]
        hungariantoast
        (edited )
        Link Parent
        I don't know what you mean. Can you please clarify?

        I don't know what you mean. Can you please clarify?

        1 vote
        1. [4]
          moocow1452
          Link Parent
          Biases on the table, but a party operative saying that “no, these polls are not legitimate opinion, and are being skewed for partisan reasons” makes me put on my skepticals, because that’s what I...

          Biases on the table, but a party operative saying that “no, these polls are not legitimate opinion, and are being skewed for partisan reasons” makes me put on my skepticals, because that’s what I would say if I was paid a lot of money by a campaign to explain to their voting base why polls keep coming up bad.

          1 vote
          1. MimicSquid
            Link Parent
            But this is a situation where you don't have to trust the party operative, you can just look at who was polling, and their historical accuracy or lack thereof.

            But this is a situation where you don't have to trust the party operative, you can just look at who was polling, and their historical accuracy or lack thereof.

            2 votes
          2. [2]
            hungariantoast
            Link Parent
            Ah, okay. That was what I thought, but I didn't want to write a response off an assumption. Okay, let's lay out some basic facts: In September and October of 2022, numerous Republican-aligned...

            Ah, okay. That was what I thought, but I didn't want to write a response off an assumption.


            Okay, let's lay out some basic facts:

            • In September and October of 2022, numerous Republican-aligned polls released in quick succession with anomalous results. The flood of these polls drove aggregate polling results to heavily favor Republicans and overpredict their performance in the 2022 midterm election.
            • Now in 2024, the exact same phenomenon is occuring, except at a greater scale.

            You don't have to take my (or Rosenberg's) word for it. Here's a poast with an image showing some of the polls that have been released:

            https://nitter.poast.org/admcrlsn/status/1844767513722126559

            Using that image, you can go and find the polls yourself and verify what I'm saying. Then, you can find various aggregate poll trakcers (FiveThirtyEight, New York Times), check if they use any of the polls from this concentrated release (the best of them won't) and see how that skews their aggregated results.


            For what it's worth, I don't actually recommend paying attention to the polls, regardless of this partisan polling strategy of "release en masse" and what not. I thought this was an interesting story to share, but worrying about polling results, especially this close to election day, isn't healthy.

            2 votes
            1. boxer_dogs_dance
              Link Parent
              To add to what you wrote, the Harris campaign has marshalled an incredible amount of resources to support her. She is ahead in money, in volunteers, in field offices, in endorsements A month away...

              To add to what you wrote, the Harris campaign has marshalled an incredible amount of resources to support her. She is ahead in money, in volunteers, in field offices, in endorsements

              A month away from the election, it is the right time to volunteer if you can, but otherwise we wait to see if the effort, plans and strategies are enough. It's like a war. Morale matters. Enthusiasm and commitment and resolve matter. But also numbers of people matter. Money matters and strategy matters.

              Polls report preferences but don't predict turnout percentages. Only votes cast will count.

              2 votes