14 votes

Will Kurds survive in the new Syria?

15 comments

  1. [9]
    rosco
    Link
    I'm always struck by Porfirio Diaz's quote following the Mexican Revolution: “Madero has unleashed a tiger; let’s see if he can control it." While I'm heartened to hear of Assad's removal, the...

    I'm always struck by Porfirio Diaz's quote following the Mexican Revolution: “Madero has unleashed a tiger; let’s see if he can control it."

    While I'm heartened to hear of Assad's removal, the outcome of revolutions are often messy - largely because they are made of coalitions whose only ideological overlap is want for liberty. Following that, deciding who leads and to what end can be very difficult.

    We saw a similar version play out in Egypt, and while I can't find the quote from Mubarak, he cautioned the Christian's forming protective circles around the Muslim prayer circles to consider what Muslim control would mean for them. With the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, he wasn't completely wrong.

    I don't mean to use this space to voice support for despots, but to caution what these sorts of revolutions mean for everday folks on the ground. Particularly when large, foreign actors are involved - like the US and Russia in this case. The unseating of Sadam gave us ISIS.

    So while many folks are rightly excited about the overthrow of Assad, what comes next will likely be painful for ethnic minorities like the Kurds or Yazidi. I doubt we'll see it, but this seems like a prime opportunity for western states to put pressure on Turkey and Erdogen rather than throwing their hands in the air and claiming there is nothing to be done.

    19 votes
    1. TheMediumJon
      Link Parent
      I mean, yes, but also a decade later and with a bunch of steps in the middle, including IIRC creating a Shiite establishment while broadly sidelining Sunnis. I mean, yes, it is a consequence of...

      The unseating of Sadam gave us ISIS.

      I mean, yes, but also a decade later and with a bunch of steps in the middle, including IIRC creating a Shiite establishment while broadly sidelining Sunnis.

      I mean, yes, it is a consequence of the US Invasion just as WW2 is a consequence of WW1, but just like in that second example there's a bunch of steps by which that consequence was avoidable.

      11 votes
    2. Minori
      Link Parent
      Neither has been particular involved in this rebel group's recent taking of the country. This rebel group's leader has been ruling Idlib through inclusive institutions and liberal economic systems...

      Particularly when large, foreign actors are involved - like the US and Russia in this case

      Neither has been particular involved in this rebel group's recent taking of the country. This rebel group's leader has been ruling Idlib through inclusive institutions and liberal economic systems that simply lead to better outcomes. Assad wasn't popular, and he needed Russia's support to stay in power.

      There are reasonable concerns about ethnic minorities that want independent states, but the new ruler of Syria has literally said "diversity is a strength" and partnered with the Christian archbishop to say they'll protect the rights of religious minorities. While they're no liberal Western democracy, there's a lot to be said for the diversity and accomplishments from the Islamic golden age which they seem to be drawing from.

      I'm optimistic. I think the best thing foreign governments like the US can do is offer foreign aid and legitimacy for the new government.

      9 votes
    3. [5]
      skybrian
      Link Parent
      I don't know what's going on with US-Turkey diplomacy. Any idea what they're doing now?

      I don't know what's going on with US-Turkey diplomacy. Any idea what they're doing now?

      1. [4]
        Minori
        Link Parent
        Waiting for Trump to take power like most countries. Erdogan has always been a bit difficult. Turkey is in a strange situation what with their fucked economy (47% annual inflation).

        Waiting for Trump to take power like most countries. Erdogan has always been a bit difficult. Turkey is in a strange situation what with their fucked economy (47% annual inflation).

        3 votes
        1. [3]
          DefinitelyNotAFae
          Link Parent
          They were also bribing Eric Adams for little apparent gain, but it was something.

          They were also bribing Eric Adams for little apparent gain, but it was something.

          2 votes
          1. [2]
            Minori
            Link Parent
            They were working on getting the Turkish consulate in NYC approved despite not quite being up to code.

            They were working on getting the Turkish consulate in NYC approved despite not quite being up to code.

            1. DefinitelyNotAFae
              Link Parent
              I'm just saying that they got minimal bang for their buck.

              I'm just saying that they got minimal bang for their buck.

              2 votes
    4. boxer_dogs_dance
      Link Parent
      Certainly the alawites are likely to become scapegoats

      Certainly the alawites are likely to become scapegoats

  2. [4]
    hungariantoast
    Link
    Since toppling of the “dictator” | Nearly 310 Israeli airstrikes destroy the remaining weapons of army of future Syria Amid ongoing airstrikes targeting military assets of army of future Syria |...
    6 votes
    1. [3]
      Minori
      Link Parent
      I really don't understand Israel's game here. They're successfully uniting the region against them even more than they already had. Bibi will continue presiding over a war as long as he wants I guess?

      I really don't understand Israel's game here. They're successfully uniting the region against them even more than they already had. Bibi will continue presiding over a war as long as he wants I guess?

      4 votes
      1. unkz
        Link Parent
        It's a great opportunity to destroy the weapons of any future Syria, which is guaranteed to be aligned against Israel no matter what they do. I'm not sure it needs to be any more complicated than...

        It's a great opportunity to destroy the weapons of any future Syria, which is guaranteed to be aligned against Israel no matter what they do. I'm not sure it needs to be any more complicated than that.

        8 votes
      2. ChingShih
        Link Parent
        I agree with unkz that it's about destroying weapons that might be later leveraged against Israel. But the goal of the land incursion is about Netanyahu delivering on his promises as a candidate...

        I agree with unkz that it's about destroying weapons that might be later leveraged against Israel. But the goal of the land incursion is about Netanyahu delivering on his promises as a candidate to expand Israeli occupation of the Golan Heights. Israel had formally occupied a chunk of the Golan Heights in 1967 and today they have almost all of it.

        3 votes
    1. Minori
      Link Parent
      Sadly this is hardly anything new. Turkey hates the Kurds and wants them dead since they see them as a serious threat. It's a damn shame Trump pulled US support from the Kurds during his last term.

      Sadly this is hardly anything new. Turkey hates the Kurds and wants them dead since they see them as a serious threat. It's a damn shame Trump pulled US support from the Kurds during his last term.

      5 votes