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Does he get tossed? Do I have any wagers?
Despite the awful prospect of four years with this man and his goons, I look at how totally chaotic the previous two months have been on all fronts and wonder if he's able to keep this level of nonsense for much longer.
My question is, what are your odds that he leaves office early and what are some of the ways it could happen?
I'm not great with odds, but I think there's a strong chance that Republicans throw him out after their constituencies begin to feel the pain and everybody's out for blood.
I'm going to put 20 dollars into the pile and say he's out in a year and a half if this keeps up at the pace it's been going.
Any wagers out there?
No way. If he’s alive and not in a coma he’s not leaving that office.
The republicans don’t have the clout to drop him even if he torches the place. They are literally riding a tiger and know the only option at this point is up continue on. They can’t chuck him under the bus because they’re going with him
My guess is that there's a decent chance that the Democrats win the House in the midterm elections and he would be impeached again. It's more doubtful that the Senate would convict.
I think this is the most likely scenario. Additionally, I'll guess that in his third term, he will die of natural causes.
The other thing I think has some likelihood of happening is that the oligarchs will figure out that he is doing too much to lose them money and wake up the populace and he will die of "natural causes" before the midterms.
I think the likelihood of a third term or even becoming the Republican nominee is very low because elections are run by the states. Most likely he won't run. Even if he did try, how many states would put him on the ballot?
Vance might run.
Supreme Court decided last round that Colorado did not have the rights to remove candidates for federal office from the presidential ballot.
Voting is only a states rights issue when it comes to how they want to disenfranchise people, not when it comes to removing criminals from ballots.
The Supreme Court ruled unanimously that states can't determine eligibility under Art. 14, Sec. 3, the section that bans insurrectionists.
I don’t see that as precedent because the grounds for intelligibility would be different. The Twenty-second Amendment doesn’t leave any wiggle room, unlike the fourteenth.
I wager that he completes the end of his term (or dies while still holding office; same thing really), because every week he stays in power is another week he can use to consolidate power. Time is on his side, he's done things in the last week that would have gotten him immediately impeached by Republicans in 2016.
The Republicans won't throw out MAGA, because the Republican party mostly is MAGA now. In 2020-2024, Republicans repeatedly tried and failed to replace Trump with someone more controllable but failed, and institutional Republicans got primaries by MAGA Republicans. The institutional Republicans know they don't have any better options, so they'll focus on whatever power to manipulate Trump they have, and that means they won't piss him off too much.
I don't think Republicans throw him out, sadly. They are anywhere from complicit to afraid.
But yes, I don't think Trump completes a full term at any rate. I see 3 scenarios happening eventually (in increasing order of likeliness):
he simply dies or is ruled mentally unfit. Natural or otherwise. He's not exactly a healthy 79 YO to begin with.
sometime into a recession/depression situation, enough people in power finally turn and put pressure to make Trump resign. Same pressure forces Vance's hand to at the very least stop making things worse for the economy.
between special elections and primaries, the legislative flips. By 2026 Dems get enough of a majority from the utter swing to convict trump and get him out. Once again, Vance is hard walled if he doesn't want the same treatment and effectively needs to at least play it as a safe and boring president. If the 4 current vacancies turn D, the House may even flip before midterms and at least start to slow things down.