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12 votes
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Thoughts on a Democratic postmortem
So Trump won. Next few years are gonna be rough, I know. What happened, and where can the Dems go from here? James Carville said it best: It’s the economy, stupid (even if he predicted the wrong...
So Trump won. Next few years are gonna be rough, I know. What happened, and where can the Dems go from here?
James Carville said it best: It’s the economy, stupid (even if he predicted the wrong candidate). Inflation was a big concern among voters, mostly driven by gas, groceries, and housing. Rightly or wrongly, many voters tied this to Biden, and through him to Harris. They viewed Trump as being likelier to fix things, with a big bold plan (tariffs, deportations, tax cuts). I suspect some (many?) voters wanted to punish Dems for inflation. Others probably thought Harris would worsen it. While she had a long proposal, she didn’t seem to talk about it much, nor boil it down to soundbites. Many of the demos that swung were hit hard by the price increases.
We saw swings among Latinos, young voters, and rural voters toward Trump. Some of this was due to depressed D turnout (Harris got 15 million fewer votes than Biden), but in other cases it was due to genuine swings. Starr County, TX went Republican for the first time in decades. New Jersey only went for Harris by single digit percentages. Black voters had a small 2% decline of the share of the electorate.
I think non-immigration identity politics played a smaller role. I do think Harris/Walz could’ve talked more about men’s issues specifically (suicide, the academic gap, poor job prospects), although they are hard to soundbiteify and not sound forced. They likely could've approached it from a universalist angle. Trans issues might’ve driven some voters to Trump, but I believe it was more localized (e.g., reduced margins in Loudoun County). Latinos likely weren’t particularly turned off of Trump because they aren’t a cohesive bloc, and in many cases not even the same race (you’ve got whites, indigenous, blacks, mixed, even Asian Latinos). Between the countries the cultures can be very different, to the point of each country hating the other. They can be more socially conservative as well, especially those in their 40s and older.
Immigration was definitely a bigger issue, dovetailing with economic issues (housing costs, “why are migrants getting help but not me”, homelessness). The migrant bussing by Gov. Abbott will be viewed as one of the greatest political maneuvers of the 21st century. It brought the issue to voters outside of border states. The number of people coming to the border was frustrating/scary for some voters.
Abortion didn’t play as big of a role, I suspect because many women don’t think they’ll need one, or because they don’t view care that legally may qualify as one.
The state of democracy didn’t motivate enough people for the Dems, in fact, some people who thought it was important voted for Trump.
Foreign policy didn’t play much of a role, although Israel/Palestine probably was significant in Michigan. But that needle would’ve been hard to thread for any candidate, and probably would’ve been less of a problem if other points were addressed.
I think the fact that Harris is a biracial woman did reduce votes, but I don’t think it was necessarily decisive in her losing. The right woman can definitely win (Thatcher won the U.K. in 1979, so it should be possible in the U.S. in 2024). I would probably hold off in 2028, but I don’t see an issue with running women long-term.
So, what are the takeaways for Dems?
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Suburban white-collar voters are not the end-all be-all. They are a good bloc to have (reliable voters in many swing states, including in off-years), but they are not enough to outweigh the others.
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You cannot take minority demographics for granted. They will not stay with you forever. They are not monolithic.
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Social policy can only go so far. Its salience can be quite limited compared to the economy. Negatives can be very negative, white positives may be “meh”.
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Running against someone, rather than for yourself only works so many times.
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You can only have so many issues stacked against you and be able to win. If it was just the economy, it might’ve been closer, but you had the economy, and immigration, and social policy, and Israel/Palestine.
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The average voter does not account for lag in terms of policy. Trump got credit for a good economy even though Obama did a lot of the work.
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Places that are or have been “safe” are not guaranteed to stay like that forever, especially when paired with point 2, without work.
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NatCon populism is here to stay. The combination of left-ish economics and social conservativism, propelled by apathetics and the hard right is a winning one, and needs to be countered accordingly.
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Many folks view Democrats as being the “mom” or “Karen from HR” party. That is not the kind of reputation that wins elections.
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It’s the economy, stupid.
Based on that, what would my strategy be for Dems in 2026/2028?
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Clean house. The folks in charge lost 2024 and only barely won 2020. Care needs to be taken to ensure replacements have sufficient political/management experience.
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Don’t be the party of why/if. Be the party of do. The former implies insecurity, the latter confidence.
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Bring back the 50-state strategy. Open offices in rural areas. States viewed as safely blue came awfully close to flipping for Trump this year. But the reverse can also be true, especially with a good candidate (cf. Indiana in 2008 ). And even if the presidential candidate loses, downballot candidates can still win, especially in off-years. I think the Dems had a good ground game, and while it cannot make up for everything else, it’s usually better to have it than not. Local elections matter a lot because they have stronger day-to-day impact, and they are the breeding ground for future politicians. North Carolina had several good Dem victories.
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Focus on economics. Moderate suburbanites aren’t enough to win on, and many people like Trumponomics. Go for smart tariffs, universal policies (e.g., Child Tax Credit, universal Medicare, etc), targeted tax cuts and increases along with tax code simplification, and one other oddball policy (withdrawal from the WTO? Annual gas tax holiday?) likely to be popular with voters.
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Social moderation/tolerance. The party is a big tent one, and there’s going to be friction over social issues. This doesn’t mean abandoning core constituencies, but being smarter about rhetoric and candidates (you won’t win the Georgia governorship with an Everytown candidate). Candidates should be allowed to have differing views on social policy (especially if it is personal and doesn’t extend to the political realm), and there should be a mechanism to allow dissent on an issue an individual is out of touch on. Related: get the loudest social progressives away from the party. They frequently clash with it but manage to tie the party to an unpopular viewpoint with something they said on Xitter/Tik Tok. I did like the initial message of freedom the Harris campaign was putting out, but it didn’t seem to be used much.
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Turnout still matters. You need to be able to turn out more people for you than the other guy.
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(My weird, hot take-ish view) Go on an offensive cyber campaign. You’ve got Russian operatives shilling for Trump and the GOP. Hack them. Make it so they can’t just continuously pump out disinfo. Even a few million should be enough to establish a unit dedicated to fucking up Russian troll farms.
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(Courtesy of @EgoEimi) Go for the reality TV angle. Lots of rallies, some political stunts, and bring loads of energy.
One final thought: Trump is a sui generis candidate. He energizes people who aren’t into politics normally. Thus far, the GOP hasn’t been able to translate that into off-year elections or non-Trump POTUS candidates. Nobody wants diet Trump, they want the real deal. When he passes away, it remains to be seen whether someone (Vance?) can take over with the same level of success.
78 votes -
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Continuing crackdown on churches and NGOs moves Nicaragua further from democracy to authoritarianism
8 votes -
China-linked ‘Spamouflage’ network mimics Americans online to sway US political debate
25 votes -
A new way to self govern - the selection of representatives by lottery
21 votes -
Illinois Democrats speedily change candidate law; Republicans call measure ‘election interference,' "undemocratic"
16 votes -
Defending Taiwan by defending Ukraine – The interconnected fates of the world’s democracies
26 votes -
Why joining a club is good for democracy
11 votes -
Congo’s least bad elections: How a fragile democracy inched forward—and how it can consolidate the gains
11 votes -
The specter of nationalism – Identity politics has always influenced elections. In 2024, it will pose a serious threat to liberalism—and to democracy itself.
5 votes -
The curious case of the Danish spy chief and former minister may be over, but key questions about secrecy and democracy remain
6 votes -
Change will come to Russia — abruptly and unexpectedly
23 votes -
With no dedicated government minister or national representation, the Sámi go to the polls in a vote to elect twenty-one members of the Sámi Parliament in Inari, Finland
12 votes -
Conservative groups draw up plan to dismantle the US government and replace it with Donald Trump’s vision
91 votes -
How the kleptocrats and oligarchs hunt civil society groups to the ends of the Earth
20 votes -
Singapore's Presidential election
8 votes -
Eliminate elections for a better US democracy
25 votes -
US progressives in Congress unveil OLIGARCH Act to combat 'existential threat' of extreme wealth inequality
138 votes -
Sanna Marin's human rights legislation for indigenous Sámi fails – Sámi Parliament Act failed to get past the final committee stage in Finnish parliament
3 votes -
The case for abolishing elections
17 votes -
Sanna Marin's Finnish government could collapse, as human rights laws stalled – new Sámi Parliament Act is the right of self-determination
6 votes -
‘These are conditions ripe for political violence’: How close is the US to civil war?
8 votes -
America’s self-obsession is killing its democracy
11 votes -
Former federal judge warns of danger to American democracy
11 votes -
Why Denmark is voting on its defence relationship with the EU – and what it says about democracy in Europe
5 votes -
America needs a better plan to fight autocracy
12 votes -
So you want to reform democracy (2015, with updates)
2 votes -
Denmark will pull its small military force out of northern Mali after the country's transitional government said no permission had been given for them to deploy there
4 votes -
Jimmy Lai among three Hong Kong democracy activists convicted over Tiananmen vigil
7 votes -
Hong Kong leader defends election after single non-establishment figure picked for 1,500-strong committee
6 votes -
'Democracy for sale': Analysis ties corporate consolidation to increased lobbying
9 votes -
Hungary formally lost access this week to over €200 million in grants from Norway, Iceland and Liechtenstein amid growing concerns about the country's democratic backsliding
14 votes -
Japan moves (slowly) toward electoral reform (2016)
4 votes -
Millions in UK face disenfranchisement under voter ID plans
7 votes -
Kenan Malik: ‘By demonising asylum seekers, Denmark reflects a panic in social democracy’
8 votes -
Partner of Norway's former justice minister has been found guilty of threatening democracy – she faked attacks on her family home and the torching of her car
10 votes -
Hong Kong arrests of pro-democracy activists showcase shrinking tolerance for peaceful opposition
14 votes -
Trump took a wrecking ball to media credibility—can Biden repair it?
7 votes -
Why Obama fears for our democracy
11 votes -
Is this a coup?
29 votes -
Trump is attempting a coup in plain sight
18 votes -
Protests and power
6 votes -
The path to autocracy; A second Trump term will leave America’s political system and culture looking even more like Orbán’s Hungary
31 votes -
We don’t know how to warn you any harder. America is dying.
25 votes -
Brazilian president Jair Bolsonaro wanted to send soldiers to shut down the Supreme Court and replace its ministers
16 votes -
Democracy maybe?
4 votes -
Trump’s latest firing seems to have violated four democratic values
17 votes -
Why conservative intellectuals like Viktor Orbán
6 votes -
A series of articles on the state of American democracy from early 2015 by Vox
American democracy is doomed ('constitutional hardball' is a great way to describe the 'modus operandi' of the Trump-McConnell GOP.) This is how the American system of government will die I found...
American democracy is doomed ('constitutional hardball' is a great way to describe the 'modus operandi' of the Trump-McConnell GOP.)
This is how the American system of government will die
I found their predictions to be kinda interesting (and clearly minimal)
The best-case scenario is that we wind up with an elective dictator but retain peaceful transitions of power. This is where I'd place my bet. Pure parliamentary systems, especially unicameral ones, give high levels of power to the prime minister and his cabinet, and manage to have peaceful transitions nonetheless. The same is true in Brazil, where the presidency is considerably more powerful than it is in the US.
But parliamentary systems also feature parties that are stronger than their leaders, which serve to prevent single individuals from garnering too much power. America's parties are getting more polarized, but they still aren't as strong as those of most other developed nations.
The worst-case scenario is if the presidency attains these powers and someone elected to the office decides to use them to punish political enemies, interfere with elections, suppress dissent, and so forth. Retaining an independent enough judiciary is a guard against this, but only if norms around obeying its rulings are strong. And, unusually, America allows for true independents, undisciplined by their parties, to become heads of government.
The US political system is not gonna collapse. It's gonna muddle though (A pretty interesting take. There are problems but people won't try to fix them but instead become disengaged and kinda forget about it.)
I think one of the things the authors missed while writing these this is how news became partidarized in the same manner, thus allowing outlets like Fox News to just consume the Republican electorate. They also missed how voting has been targeted too, and underestimated how willing the public was to act and how would the public react to this, which was by electing someone who didn't care about said broken Congress (or any sort of constitutionality), which is what became of Trump.
3 votes -
A few articles on the Polish elections' breakdown
Poland 'holds' ghost election with 0% turnout (mostly explains what and who led up to this.) Opposition 'slams' presidential election by post (citing lack of preparation, mostly.) Polish election...
Poland 'holds' ghost election with 0% turnout (mostly explains what and who led up to this.)
Opposition 'slams' presidential election by post (citing lack of preparation, mostly.)
Polish election delayed indefinitely with just 4 days to go (mostly the same as the first article, but also cites how the later these elections are held, the worse Duda (current Polish president) 's chances unsurprisingly become.)
Race to the bottom: all Polish election outcomes are bad [opinion article] (a short analysis on the possibility routes the election could have taken. Admittedly somewhat outdated given the elections have clearly been postponed.
Related article: Poland's ruling party just made it's anti-democratic intention radically clear (tl;dr they're really invested in 'illiberal democracy', not too unlike the Republican party.)
6 votes