Twelve people are currently registered as infected with a mutated form of the coronavirus in Denmark, according to news wire Ritzau. The mutated virus is reported to respond weakly to antibodies.
Oh, that's not good. That's a catastrophe if it escapes containment and a warning that the clock is ticking on getting this pandemic under control. The weaker response to antibodies means the...
Oh, that's not good. That's a catastrophe if it escapes containment and a warning that the clock is ticking on getting this pandemic under control. The weaker response to antibodies means the immune system is going to have a harder time fighting off this mutation. That means sicker, longer, and likely a higher death rate.
Denmark, good luck - get this mutation locked down stat or we're all in for a worse winter.
There's an article on HN right now. Would be pretty disastrous if it nullified the work towards a vaccine but in truth I think that's a relatively unlikely outcome. Would like to hear what more...
There's an article on HN right now.
Would be pretty disastrous if it nullified the work towards a vaccine but in truth I think that's a relatively unlikely outcome. Would like to hear what more knowledgeable people have to say on the matter.
12 is too small a sample size to draw conclusions from, but it does seem that the antibodies we currently have and are using in vaccines will not be very effective against the mutated strain. I'm...
12 is too small a sample size to draw conclusions from, but it does seem that the antibodies we currently have and are using in vaccines will not be very effective against the mutated strain.
I'm not an expert, but iirc one of the challenges of creating a vaccine for COV19 is that we haven't previously created vaccines for any coronavirus. Once we understand how to do that (which it seems we're on the verge of), creating vaccines with slightly different antibodies will be much easier - similar to our yearly flu vaccines.
I am more in the "This is life for the foreseeable future" camp. I'm convinced I'll have to wear a mask at my daughter high school graduation (in 2033)
I am more in the "This is life for the foreseeable future" camp. I'm convinced I'll have to wear a mask at my daughter high school graduation (in 2033)
Don't expect any quantitative inputs to the function that provided those quantitative outputs. Some are optimistic that people will take a functioning COVID vaccine. I'm not, at least as far as...
Don't expect any quantitative inputs to the function that provided those quantitative outputs.
Some are optimistic that people will take a functioning COVID vaccine. I'm not, at least as far as America goes. So you take a quickly-made vaccine with a barely passable effectiveness rate that is only taken by half of the population. That half of the population will not all be vaccinated right away. Now take into account mutations that require us to revise the vaccines and redistribute a second time.
I expect some return to normalcy in 2021, but we won't be done with COVID for years.
The micro-cluster approach being tried in NY is working pretty well. At least that way, you and your local community are only disrupted if there is a legit outbreak right in your own back yard. It...
The micro-cluster approach being tried in NY is working pretty well. At least that way, you and your local community are only disrupted if there is a legit outbreak right in your own back yard. It sucks for the areas that have outbreaks, but overall it doesn't cause the economic damage that a full lockdown would.
I am A) sad, as a vegan, that these farms exist at all and B) impressed Denmark is willing to take another hit to their GDP (I read mink makes 1% of their GDP?). Compared to the US where we've...
I am A) sad, as a vegan, that these farms exist at all and
B) impressed Denmark is willing to take another hit to their GDP (I read mink makes 1% of their GDP?). Compared to the US where we've been willing to sacrifice nothing for nobody nohow.
A) I'm not a vegan or vegetarian, and I'm also sad these farms exist at all. If we're lucky, maybe the silver lining will be that they won't come back. B) 'murica.
A) I'm not a vegan or vegetarian, and I'm also sad these farms exist at all. If we're lucky, maybe the silver lining will be that they won't come back.
From what I read on /r/COVID19, we don't know yet just how serious it is. Antibodies aren't 100% of the immune response (T Memory Cells) and a weaker antibody response doesn't mean the antibody is...
From what I read on /r/COVID19, we don't know yet just how serious it is. Antibodies aren't 100% of the immune response (T Memory Cells) and a weaker antibody response doesn't mean the antibody is useless — it could be anywhere from 10% to 90% less effective. The Danish Government response seems fairly competent, and hopefully the measures they are taking will be enough to stop it from spreading and mutating even more.
Yes, looks like there was a mutation and most of the recent spread in Europe has it. But apparently nobody knows whether the mutation actually caused anything, or if it's just a convenient marker...
Yes, looks like there was a mutation and most of the recent spread in Europe has it.
But apparently nobody knows whether the mutation actually caused anything, or if it's just a convenient marker that can be used to track how the spread happened? It seems that tracking mutations is easy and useful, but establishing causation (what does the mutation actually do) is harder. The default assumption for scientists seems to be that new mutations probably don't do anything, but it needs to be investigated to know for sure, particularly in a case like this. (Here's an article by Ed Yong back in May.)
Meanwhile, some ordinary people spreading the news are going to make the opposite assumption, that the mutation must do something, and that meme will spread more because it's more "infectious" via sharing. This is how social media works.
Dr Hodcroft stressed that there was “no evidence that the variant’s [rapid] spread is due to a mutation that increases transmission or impacts clinical outcome”.
But she emphasized that 20A.EU1 was unlike any version of Sars-Cov-2 — the virus that causes Covid-19 — she had previously come across. “I’ve not seen any variant with this sort of dynamic for as long as I’ve been looking at genomic sequences of coronavirus in Europe,” she said.
In particular, the teams are working with virology laboratories to establish whether 20A.EU1 carries a particular mutation, in the “spike protein” that the virus uses to enter human cells, that might alter its behaviour.
I did a few searches but didn't find any new developments.
I posted a link in the weekly coronavirus thread, but will repeat here: Denmark to cull millions of minks over mutated coronavirus
Oh, that's not good. That's a catastrophe if it escapes containment and a warning that the clock is ticking on getting this pandemic under control. The weaker response to antibodies means the immune system is going to have a harder time fighting off this mutation. That means sicker, longer, and likely a higher death rate.
Denmark, good luck - get this mutation locked down stat or we're all in for a worse winter.
This winter will be a new level of disastrous. Still early November and numbers are soaring before the worst part of the next 4 months.
There's an article on HN right now.
Would be pretty disastrous if it nullified the work towards a vaccine but in truth I think that's a relatively unlikely outcome. Would like to hear what more knowledgeable people have to say on the matter.
12 is too small a sample size to draw conclusions from, but it does seem that the antibodies we currently have and are using in vaccines will not be very effective against the mutated strain.
I'm not an expert, but iirc one of the challenges of creating a vaccine for COV19 is that we haven't previously created vaccines for any coronavirus. Once we understand how to do that (which it seems we're on the verge of), creating vaccines with slightly different antibodies will be much easier - similar to our yearly flu vaccines.
I'm starting to come to terms with the fact that this will be a 3-4 year ordeal
We pushed our Oct 2020 wedding to Oct 2021 back in April, thinking that would surely be enough of a buffer, but here we are.
Yep, was planning a 2020 trip to Japan, that's been moved to 2021 at present.
I am more in the "This is life for the foreseeable future" camp. I'm convinced I'll have to wear a mask at my daughter high school graduation (in 2033)
Don't expect any quantitative inputs to the function that provided those quantitative outputs.
Some are optimistic that people will take a functioning COVID vaccine. I'm not, at least as far as America goes. So you take a quickly-made vaccine with a barely passable effectiveness rate that is only taken by half of the population. That half of the population will not all be vaccinated right away. Now take into account mutations that require us to revise the vaccines and redistribute a second time.
I expect some return to normalcy in 2021, but we won't be done with COVID for years.
The micro-cluster approach being tried in NY is working pretty well. At least that way, you and your local community are only disrupted if there is a legit outbreak right in your own back yard. It sucks for the areas that have outbreaks, but overall it doesn't cause the economic damage that a full lockdown would.
Here's the video where Cuomo outlined the approach when they switched over.
If we can all learn how to roll with that method we can manage the worst of the pandemic without completely killing the economy to do it.
I am A) sad, as a vegan, that these farms exist at all and
B) impressed Denmark is willing to take another hit to their GDP (I read mink makes 1% of their GDP?). Compared to the US where we've been willing to sacrifice nothing for nobody nohow.
A) I'm not a vegan or vegetarian, and I'm also sad these farms exist at all. If we're lucky, maybe the silver lining will be that they won't come back.
B) 'murica.
From what I read on /r/COVID19, we don't know yet just how serious it is. Antibodies aren't 100% of the immune response (T Memory Cells) and a weaker antibody response doesn't mean the antibody is useless — it could be anywhere from 10% to 90% less effective. The Danish Government response seems fairly competent, and hopefully the measures they are taking will be enough to stop it from spreading and mutating even more.
Reuters article: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-denmark-mink/denmark-to-cull-entire-herd-of-mink-due-to-risk-of-coronavirus-mutation-tv2-idUSKBN27K1X6
Yes, looks like there was a mutation and most of the recent spread in Europe has it.
But apparently nobody knows whether the mutation actually caused anything, or if it's just a convenient marker that can be used to track how the spread happened? It seems that tracking mutations is easy and useful, but establishing causation (what does the mutation actually do) is harder. The default assumption for scientists seems to be that new mutations probably don't do anything, but it needs to be investigated to know for sure, particularly in a case like this. (Here's an article by Ed Yong back in May.)
Meanwhile, some ordinary people spreading the news are going to make the opposite assumption, that the mutation must do something, and that meme will spread more because it's more "infectious" via sharing. This is how social media works.
From last week:
Scientists warn of new coronavirus variant spreading across Europe
I did a few searches but didn't find any new developments.