All the various cool browser technologies have been around for years. But they are each extremely vast. If you get good at Web Audio, you probably don’t have time to get good at Web Crypto and Web Assembly and WebGL.
The reason they were so complex is, basically, because they were built for teams like those at Google, not for individuals. In the past, the web was for people to build web pages—and, yes, in the present, you can still do that, but for more than a decade, the web has been designed for giant companies so they can deliver software securely to billions of people who buy things with credit cards. These huge mega-libraries were dropped into the web browser to enable large teams to build big things, and the little guy was a bit of an afterthought. But now you can make a game in 3D with sound, and it can work just fine on a plane.
This is one of the places where “are we in an AI bubble” gets fuzzy for me, because it’s totally clear all these giant AI companies are huffing AGI paint fumes, but at the same time, if we actually unlocked the economic transformation of, say, 100 times as many people making software for each other, that would blow an enormous crater into the current tech economy. Don’t like the way your giant industrial looms make carpet? Hack your own firmware and make each carpet totally personalized! Turn any Instagram post into a huge floor covering! Suddenly all the carpet companies have to hack their own firmware to compete. What’s that going to be like?
This also destabilizes the app store economy. The high tax of building for app stores seems less worth paying when you can just test an idea in the world from a web server for $0 after a couple weeks. Perhaps Mozilla should take another swing at launching a mobile phone! (Forget I mentioned that.) In any case, what used to be a large industrial process is now a personal one, if you so desire. Web browsers enable incredibly rich app development—and that’s radically easier than it used to be.
It’s a mixed blessing. I’ve been a writer for years, and software development feels more and more like writing to me every passing week. The awkward part of the comparison is, in general, people do not want to pay writers any money at all. As a writer, you get used to it. But for software people, being perpetually devalued is pretty novel. Then again, if you need software to do something—like our clients!—say, to fix a process, organize a database, get more value out of a big piece of industrial equipment, it’s a pretty amazing time, because you can do just about anything. I’m pretty confident we’ll all meet in the middle, but it’ll take a while, and it will be different on the other side.
From the article: