27 votes

Ethiopia becomes the first country to ban (importation of) internal combustion vehicles

12 comments

  1. [4]
    MrFahrenheit
    Link
    As of 2019 (latest data I could find, admittedly I didn't look very hard) there were 2 cars for every 1,000 Ethiopians and 84% were taxis. Compare this to NYC - the densest city in America with...

    As of 2019 (latest data I could find, admittedly I didn't look very hard) there were 2 cars for every 1,000 Ethiopians and 84% were taxis.

    Compare this to NYC - the densest city in America with the best transit - where 45% of households have a vehicle.

    11 votes
    1. [2]
      JackA
      Link Parent
      Note that while this data point can sound like "it doesn't make a difference anyway", it's actually extremely good news. When developing countries start seeing a path forwards that essentially...

      Note that while this data point can sound like "it doesn't make a difference anyway", it's actually extremely good news.

      When developing countries start seeing a path forwards that essentially allows them to skip the heavy pollution of industrialization that almost all currently developed countries had to go through before they could start focusing on reducing emissions, it bodes incredibly well for future trends.

      Ethiopia is home to almost 130 million people currently and is only expected to further climb the population ranks in the future. As many of them climb out of poverty over the next century, being able to skip all of those emissions in a huge developing country (and accelerate their environmental Kuznets curve) will be an enormous benefit to the world as richer countries continue to move towards renewables at the same time.

      21 votes
      1. updawg
        Link Parent
        And I imagine that building the supply chains to avoid ICE vehicles in Ethiopia will help other countries in Africa do the same, although Ethiopia is certainly at an "advantage" because the only...

        And I imagine that building the supply chains to avoid ICE vehicles in Ethiopia will help other countries in Africa do the same, although Ethiopia is certainly at an "advantage" because the only port they have access to is on the Red Sea (although it's not actually in Ethiopia).

        4 votes
    2. updawg
      Link Parent
      This brings up another reason the US should move away from cars in general rather than just moving to EVs: imagine how many more Olympic medals we'd win in distance running if we had to run...

      This brings up another reason the US should move away from cars in general rather than just moving to EVs: imagine how many more Olympic medals we'd win in distance running if we had to run everywhere.

      5 votes
  2. [2]
    R3qn65
    Link
    This is great, but I would take it with about 15 grains of salt. Ethiopia is currently in the middle of an internal conflict and insurgency, which has crossed the threshold into outright war as...

    This is great, but I would take it with about 15 grains of salt.

    Ethiopia is currently in the middle of an internal conflict and insurgency, which has crossed the threshold into outright war as recently as 2023. It is difficult to imagine the government being able to build sufficient EV infrastructure in the near term.

    6 votes
    1. KapteinB
      Link Parent
      They may be willing to spend big on charging infrastructure to improve their trade balance sheets. And they did recently finish a massive hydroelectric dam that will give them a huge electricity...

      According to the Minister, Ethiopia spent €6 billion ($7.6 billion) on petrol and diesel imports in 2023, necessitating the ban.

      They may be willing to spend big on charging infrastructure to improve their trade balance sheets. And they did recently finish a massive hydroelectric dam that will give them a huge electricity surplus. But of course it's hard to build infrastructure in the unstable parts of the country.

      7 votes
  3. [6]
    updawg
    Link
    I'm curious if Ethiopia has the infrastructure to support this. Is there a chance they end up kind of like Cuba for a while with really old cars? Hell, I'm curious how much infrastructure Ethiopia...

    I'm curious if Ethiopia has the infrastructure to support this. Is there a chance they end up kind of like Cuba for a while with really old cars? Hell, I'm curious how much infrastructure Ethiopia has to support ICE vehicles. It's always surprising to me to think of how some countries deal with these things. It was especially weird when I found out countries like Afghanistan actually have their own Coke and Pepsi bottling companies. I suppose it makes sense but it feels like it would just be imported.

    4 votes
    1. [2]
      pseudolobster
      Link Parent
      I think it's pretty common for bottling to be done locally. In western Canada, Pepsi is bottled by a company called "Gray Beverage" (which would be an unappealing name except we spell the shade...

      I think it's pretty common for bottling to be done locally. In western Canada, Pepsi is bottled by a company called "Gray Beverage" (which would be an unappealing name except we spell the shade "grey" here). I'm pretty sure their syrup is imported and they just add the carbonated water and can it. It's very expensive to ship bulky heavy cans of mostly water, so they just ship the syrup instead. Given the secrecy of the recipes I doubt they give an ingredient list to foreign companies and tell them to procure and mix their own ingredients.

      10 votes
      1. updawg
        Link Parent
        Yes, but there's a big difference between having the infrastructure in western Canada and in Afghanistan. I'm sure there are many factories in western Canada, but it's hard to imagine many...

        Yes, but there's a big difference between having the infrastructure in western Canada and in Afghanistan. I'm sure there are many factories in western Canada, but it's hard to imagine many factories in Afghanistan.

        2 votes
    2. [3]
      R3qn65
      Link Parent
      What do you mean? Like, do they have mechanics and petrol stations and stuff? (If so, the answer is yes).

      Hell, I'm curious how much infrastructure Ethiopia has to support ICE vehicles.

      What do you mean? Like, do they have mechanics and petrol stations and stuff? (If so, the answer is yes).

      5 votes
      1. [2]
        updawg
        Link Parent
        Of course I understand that they have those, I just mean how extensively the infrastructure is built out and how many cars it can support. Another comment noted that they only have two cars per...

        Of course I understand that they have those, I just mean how extensively the infrastructure is built out and how many cars it can support. Another comment noted that they only have two cars per thousand people.

        2 votes
        1. R3qn65
          (edited )
          Link Parent
          Ah yeah I see. That figure is misleading because of the massive urban-rural divide in most of Africa. Here's a video of traffic in Addis, the capitol. As you can see there are big wide roads that...

          Ah yeah I see.

          That figure is misleading because of the massive urban-rural divide in most of Africa. Here's a video of traffic in Addis, the capitol. As you can see there are big wide roads that could easily handle many more cars in order to get to NYC traffic density, for instance. But then look at how 80% of the population lives: in huts made of rocks and sticks.

          This also touches on what I meant in a separate post about taking the government's promises to construct EV infrastructure with a grain of salt.

          In much of rural Africa, you get your petrol from people selling it out of jerry cans and water bottles on the side of the road. That lets buses and minibuses - the lifeblood of movement in Africa - visit villages basically anywhere, because they can refuel at the informal vendors. Many of these villages don't have electricity at all, much less the kind of consistent, high-voltage power you need to charge an EV.

          So.. what is the government going to do? Even providing basic electricity to all of Africa's population is a massive challenge.

          3 votes