AnthonyB's recent activity

  1. Comment on Benjamin Netanyahu received an explicit warning days before October 7. He didn't brief Israel's security chiefs. in ~society

    AnthonyB
    Link
    [There is so much to quote from this article, but I want to include this portion about the hostages] Archive link

    A week and a half before October 7, 2023 the Emirati ruler called Netanyahu from the Presidential Palace in Abu Dhabi and spoke with him for 45 minutes.

    In that conversation, bin Zayed warned that Hamas' leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, was planning a major operation against Israel. Bin Zayed expressed concern that the event in question would not only lead to bloodshed but also destabilize the entire region and undermine the Abraham Accords.

    Three foreign senior sources are familiar with the contents of the conversation, the existence of which is revealed here for the first time. Its disclosure is the result of extensive research based on dozens of sources in Israel and worldwide, including very senior officials, as well as recordings, internal documents and correspondence. The research was conducted for the new book "Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment" (Kinneret Zmora Publishing, in Hebrew) by the authors of this article.

    The Emirati ruler would later recount the conversation he had with Netanyahu and the warning he also relayed to CIA Director William J. Burns. Bin Zayed shared with Burns the sense he tried to convey to Netanyahu that "something there is about to explode," and told him that the Israeli prime minister believed the volatile area was, in fact, the West Bank.

    "The emir hoped that despite his reserved response, Netanyahu would take the message seriously and take action," the adviser says. None of them imagined that the prime minister would hear the message but wouldn't brief the heads of the defense establishment. The head of the Shin Bet, the head of the Mossad, the Israel Defense Forces chief of staff – none of them knew about bin Zayed's warning.

    [There is so much to quote from this article, but I want to include this portion about the hostages]

    Dahlan told him that "'first and foremost, they need to release all the civilians, the children, the elderly and the babies.' Without that, there's nothing to talk about. What they did was madness. They didn't cross a red line; they crossed a black line. If the civilians are released, there will be a feeling in the Israeli public that there is something to talk about. If not, let them eat what they cooked."

    Mashharawi conveyed Dahlan's message to Hamas. "Give me 24 hours and I'll get back to you," Mushtaha replied. Surprisingly, he returned just one hour later. He had a message: Sinwar was ready to release all civilians. It should be noted that when Sinwar refers to civilians, he means only those up to 18 years old and over 50 years old.

    "He told me that in the first stage, they had no problem releasing all civilians without anything in return," Mashharawi recounts. "I swear, those were his exact words: all civilians, without anything in return. They had only one condition: They wanted us to bring in an agreed-upon mediator as quickly as possible, so that negotiations could immediately begin over everything else – the release of soldiers and officers in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, and then the issue of the blockade on Gaza."

    Dahlan activated his contacts with the Shin Bet and conveyed the information to them. According to Mashharawi, "the unofficial response Dahlan received from them was: 'Netanyahu doesn't want to talk about anything. He only wants war and the elimination of Hamas.'" The Israelis' perception was: First, we eliminate Hamas, and then we'll retrieve the hostages by force."

    A senior defense official admits that at least some of the proposals for the release of civilian hostages reached the Mossad, the Shin Bet and the prime minister. But according to him, even if they were concrete, the military establishment, which needed 24 hours to gain control of the situation, and even more so the stunned political leadership, were unable to discuss the matter in the first few days.

    "To be honest," the senior official says, "the issue of the hostages was not seriously on the agenda at this stage, and no one at the military or political level was open to discussing the proposal. The release of the hostages did not even enter the list of war objectives formulated by the government on the night of October 7. Could the proposal have been properly discussed and a decision reached? In substantive terms, the answer is yes. But the prevailing mood was like after Pearl Harbor: We had just suffered a brutal blow, we were in the midst of war, who had the bandwidth to talk about stopping the fighting and starting negotiations now, even if it was to save the lives of dozens of people, whose final number was still unknown?"

    Mashharawi recounts that on October 10, Mushtaha called him again, on behalf of Sinwar, to find out if an Israeli response to Hamas' proposal had been received. "I told him: I am still waiting for a response from Israel," Mashharawi says. "I waited a few more days for a response, and I approached the Israelis again, but they were not in a state to talk at all. Meanwhile, within a few days, the bombing of Gaza intensified, and contact with Mushtaha and Sinwar became impossible."

    Blinken eventually arrived in Israel after six days. Immediately upon his arrival on Thursday, October 12, he met with Netanyahu, and the next day he continued to Doha for a meeting with Qatar's prime minister. "I raised the issue of the hostages' release with Netanyahu, but I did not receive a clear answer from him," the U.S. secretary of state told al-Thani. "Netanyahu is not there yet!"

    In mid-October, Hadar attended a meeting held in the office of Ophir Falk, Netanyahu's foreign policy adviser, which dealt with the emerging order of war objectives. Hadar asked to present his perspective to the forum. "I asked Falk: 'Tell me, do you understand what's happening here?' Hadar recounts. 'We can bring back the women, the children, now. This is a one-for-one exchange. We can initiate a move.'"
    Falk stopped the discussion and asked the other attendees to leave the room. "I continued," Hadar recalls, "and I told him: 'Let's advance a deal. We'll offer them a thousand prisoners, even two thousand if we have to. The world is with us now, let's exert international pressure and advance a deal.'"

    But Falk stopped Hadar. "There will be no deal here," he told him. "This is ISIS. They are murderers. They will get nothing. Change your mindset, Doron."

    "The basic problem was that Hamas was looking for a 'permanent end to the conflict,' as they called it," concludes William J. Burns, the former CIA director, in his characteristically measured manner, summing up the labyrinth into which the hostage issue would become entangled. "Netanyahu was only willing to consider a 'first phase' deal, but claimed he had to constantly reserve the option 'to continue destroying Hamas later,' as he defined it. And that, for us, was always the challenge: How do we square this circle and manage to bring everyone back?"

    Archive link

    13 votes

  3. Comment on UN says world will miss its climate target, warming must be reversed in ~enviro

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    Gotcha. I get what you're saying about the Green New Deal, and I think it's a fair criticism when you look at it like that. There's two different ways to interpret the/a Green New Deal. There's...

    Gotcha. I get what you're saying about the Green New Deal, and I think it's a fair criticism when you look at it like that.

    There's two different ways to interpret the/a Green New Deal. There's the 2019 resolution, which if you compare it to an actual bill like the IRA, it's basically piss in the wind. Then there's the slogan, which isn't necessarily tied to a specific bill like the IRA or OBBB, but is more like a mission statement or guiding principles that would feature a series of bills and executive orders, like the original New Deal(s), or even Make America Great Again (I guess).

    Personally, I'm a big slogan guy. Hope and Change was a great one, and we've twice elected the dumbest, sloppiest, most corrupt and embarrassing moron to ever hold public office, thanks in part to a decent slogan.

    As far as ideas go, it seems like we're passing the dinking and dunking phase and heading straight towards the "oh fuck, time for WW2-level mobilization" phase. I think if you're going to embark on a mission to completely change how we fuel our civilization in under three decades, you gotta come with a good elevator pitch and a nice tag line, right? Sadly, I think the best we can get right now is a couple of lines about investing in renewables, which is basically the "two state solution" or "immigration reform" of climate policy.

    1 vote

  4. Comment on UN says world will miss its climate target, warming must be reversed in ~enviro

    AnthonyB
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    I'm saying that tackling the environmental crisis is mostly an afterthought, even among the politicians who supposedly support taking aggressive measures to do so. The climate investment that was...

    I'm saying that tackling the environmental crisis is mostly an afterthought, even among the politicians who supposedly support taking aggressive measures to do so. The climate investment that was in the IRA was great, but not nearly enough, and the only thing floating around right now that matches the scope of the issue is the GND. It's less about the GND specifically and more about the absence of any real effort to address the issue or bring it into the conversation.

    The lack of attention on climate change is not doing us any favors. Because while Democrats have shifted their entire focus towards affordability issues and - for the progressive wing - our relationship with Israel, Republicans and Donald Trump have been filling that void by hyping up fossil fuels. As a result, there has been a 20-point swing towards support for prioritizing fossil fuels over renewables. That's probably going to make the next attempt to reduce emissions that much harder. I can already hear Kristen Welker asking the poor sucker who tries to make climate a major issue, "Many Americans - roughly half - believe that lowering gas and energy prices is more important than reducing greenhouse emissions. Are you sure that this is the right policy and the right message for your campaign, and can you guarantee that gas prices won't go up next year?"

    4 votes

  5. Comment on UN says world will miss its climate target, warming must be reversed in ~enviro

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    Honestly, it's so hard to not feel hopeless and defeated when looking at the prospects of not only ending the corruption that controls our politics, but also overcoming the widespread propaganda...

    Honestly, it's so hard to not feel hopeless and defeated when looking at the prospects of not only ending the corruption that controls our politics, but also overcoming the widespread propaganda that dominates the discourse in this country. Even the most popular and progressive politicians tend to stay away from the Green New Deal. Isn't that crazy? We've had three presidential elections in the last 10 years and I can probably count on one hand the number of times that the environment/climate change was brought up in the debates. And of those handful of times that it was brought up, the only time a question like that gained any traction in the media was because it was asked by Ken fucking Bone, and his question - which was ignored in the media coverage in favor of his jolly little brand of pervertry - was framed by asking how they would protect his jerb in the fossil fuel industry! We live in an insane society.

    Meanwhile, what's the earliest we could see major campaign finance reform? Three years? And that's assuming you get both Congress and the president to expand and stuff the supreme court. Then you still have the business of replacing those in office who are subservient to the fossil fuel industry (which would take years) and hope they haven't developed a clever workaround to make use of the millions of dollars that currently buy elections and politicians, and convince people to care about it in a media environment that, at best, will ignore or downplay the severity of the issue.

    Really the only way I see us doing what we need to by the time it needs to be done is if we get an unbelievably popular, talented, and bulletproof politician (like Obama + Mamdani + Tom Hanks x10000, aka Mechazobama) to come in during a time of crisis and do a little Trump-like authoritarianism/strong-arming to force the regulations, infrastructure, and global coordination that we need. Either that or we get about a dozen Katrina-level environmental catastrophies in a single year that are so horrifying and devastating that it's like 9/11 and the Lisbon Earthquake rolled into one.

    8 votes

  6. Comment on What's a show you love that's from before your time? in ~tv

    AnthonyB
    Link
    Earlier this year, I binged a lot of Taxi, which is one of the only shows I've watched that aired entirely before I was born. From my understanding, it was a pretty groundbreaking show for its...

    Earlier this year, I binged a lot of Taxi, which is one of the only shows I've watched that aired entirely before I was born. From my understanding, it was a pretty groundbreaking show for its time, and it feels much more like a modern sitcom compared to other shows of its era. Also, the theme song is a fucking banger once it kicks in.

    Other than that, it's really just Columbo and The Twilight Zone. I used to watch The Brady Bunch, I Dream of Jeannie, and some old cartoons when I was a kid, but the only thing I enjoy about them as an adult is the pure childhood nostalgia.

    3 votes

  7. Comment on We surveyed 6,000 Americans. Here is the winning message for Democrats - Opinion, Dustin Guastella and Erica Etelson in ~society

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    I don't have time to do it right now, but I would love to go back and look at what messaging polling like this has been like over the last 10-15 years. I suspect that part of the reason why this...

    I don't have time to do it right now, but I would love to go back and look at what messaging polling like this has been like over the last 10-15 years. I suspect that part of the reason why this is now an acceptable default position is because of the persuasion from the more principled/progressive wing that have been steadily beating that drum for years.

    That's why I've always been less of a believer in the popularism/message to the moment approach and more of a field of dreams/"if you build it, they will come" kinda guy.

    9 votes

  8. Comment on Controversy erupts as Canadians insist Toronto lies on "Lake Ontario" in ~society

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    100% We need to get back to the issues that matter and condemn Hasan Piker (╯°□°）╯︵ ┻━┻

    100%

    We need to get back to the issues that matter and condemn Hasan Piker (⁠╯⁠°⁠□⁠°⁠）⁠╯⁠︵⁠ ⁠┻⁠━⁠┻

    13 votes

  9. Comment on New polls: Democrats demand 2028 presidential nominee back arms embargo and sanctions on Israel in ~society

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    Yeah, we'll have to see what happens with the politics of it. I think my biggest fear in that regard is that this issue turns into "defund the police" pt 2, where five years from now you might get...

    Yeah, we'll have to see what happens with the politics of it. I think my biggest fear in that regard is that this issue turns into "defund the police" pt 2, where five years from now you might get the most progressive politicians talking about how their views have "evolved."

    What I find fascinating (and a little bit hopeful) is that these attitudes have shifted so dramatically in spite of the fact that the media and powerful establishment politicians have worked tirelessly to maintain public support for Israel and portray its detractors as radicals. I think the same could be probably said for Medicare for All and, to a lesser extent, addressing climate change. It just goes to show the influence of alternative media and social media. So if your house is destroyed from a wildfire or hurricane, if your grandmother dies from heatstroke during a record-breaking heatwave, or if your insurance provider rejects your claim, don't forget to post about it! (I wish I was 100% joking here)

    4 votes

  10. Comment on New polls: Democrats demand 2028 presidential nominee back arms embargo and sanctions on Israel in ~society

    AnthonyB
    Link
    The headline is copied directly from the source.

    Polls released August 24, 2026 by IMEU Policy Project, and conducted by YouGov, found that the voters who will cast the first ballots to decide the next Democratic nominee overwhelmingly want to sanction and cut off all weapons to Israel. The polls surveyed over 4,000 likely primary voters in South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia Democratic voters from August 4 to August 10, and have a margin of error of +/2.

    Just as US foreign policy toward Israel has shaped Democratic primaries throughout 2026, voters in these states overwhelmingly say reducing support for Israel will be a factor in their vote.

    The headline is copied directly from the source.

    5 votes

  12. Comment on Cowboy Hunters - Punched in the Head (2026) in ~music

    AnthonyB
    Link
    Hey, I was just thinking about these two! I saw the full performance a few days ago and thoroughly enjoyed it, even though it's not really my favorite genre. The cover of Perfect (Exceeder) is...

    Hey, I was just thinking about these two! I saw the full performance a few days ago and thoroughly enjoyed it, even though it's not really my favorite genre. The cover of Perfect (Exceeder) is also a banger.

    I ended up going down a little rabbit hole on their Instagram and they have some funny and charming interviews. Also, terrific band name.

    1 vote

  13. Comment on The Odyssey (no, not that one) | Official trailer in ~movies

    AnthonyB
    Link
    My parents aren't able to go out to the theaters very often, so they watch a lot of new releases on the Fandango app. Last week, I heard my mother shout, "Oh my god, they have The Odyssey on...

    My parents aren't able to go out to the theaters very often, so they watch a lot of new releases on the Fandango app. Last week, I heard my mother shout, "Oh my god, they have The Odyssey on here!" Fortunately, she managed to spot the difference before she spent the $20 to rent it.

    This movie has been in Fandango's top-10 for the last two weeks. I assume because a lot of people thought it was Christopher Nolan's epic, however, I'm not ruling out the impact of angry dorks and hardcore AI enthusiasts. I haven't seen any press from the director, though I'll admit I am not a good googler. The studio website has some real gems though. With titles like Alien Disclosure Day, Frankenstein's Bride, Immortal Combat, and New Toy Story, it seems pretty clear what they're all about.

    11 votes

  15. Comment on Midweek Movie Free Talk in ~movies

    AnthonyB
    Link
    Watched The Invite a few days ago. It was a lot funnier than I expected. The trailer made it seem like it was going to be slower, cringier, and maybe a tad bit creepy. Watching it with my parents...

    Watched The Invite a few days ago. It was a lot funnier than I expected. The trailer made it seem like it was going to be slower, cringier, and maybe a tad bit creepy. Watching it with my parents wasn't the most comfortable experience, but it was still fun nonetheless. Middle aged Seth Rogan is the best Seth Rogan.

    I also saw The Apprentice for the first time. Great performance from Jeremy Strong, as usual. I'm sure he was a delight on set.

    6 votes

  16. Comment on Midweek Movie Free Talk in ~movies

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    I recently went through all of the Mission: Impossible movies and MI2 stands out for its ridiculousness. I don't know if it's just a product of its time, the John Woo of it all, or what, but that...

    I recently went through all of the Mission: Impossible movies and MI2 stands out for its ridiculousness. I don't know if it's just a product of its time, the John Woo of it all, or what, but that movie is insane. Having said that, I'm not ashamed to admit that I thought it was the greatest movie ever made when I saw it in theaters as an 11 year old. And yeah, that Limp Bizkit theme song is a banger. When it kicks in as the bad guy realizes Cruise did a face swap with the number one henchmen? Goosebumps.

    2 votes

  17. Comment on Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to federal stalking charges in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO in ~news

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    Oh damn, I didn't know that they did that! Thanks for the heads up.

    Oh damn, I didn't know that they did that! Thanks for the heads up.

    2 votes

  18. Comment on I'm not ready to let this place go in ~tildes

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    I did a lazy search through some old topics and I think that was around the last time something like that happened. There's a good chance I could be misremembering, but there was a stretch where...

    I did a lazy search through some old topics and I think that was around the last time something like that happened. There's a good chance I could be misremembering, but there was a stretch where it felt like departure posts and the airing of grievances was a regular thing, even for petty issues. The only thing I've ever had taken down was a sarcastic meta post about people leaving the site, and that was in August of 2021. I don't remember exactly what brought that on, only that there were a string of 'Here's why I'm leaving' posts.

    Looking back on some older posts, it seems like we were on a good run, but it's still disappointing to see how we're still having the same conversations about the same problems. I've linked to this post in the past, but after this week it feels like it should be required reading. The conversation and the linked posts that spurred it are unbelievably (unsurprisingly?) relevant. The Simpsons 'Don't make me tap the sign' meme comes to mind.

    Then there is this post from 2020 that is more broad but it also feels relevant. It's like we're always repeating the same cycle. One of my fellow white boys/spiritually white boys acts up, blowback ensues, departures, ideas for how to fix the problem, kfwyre chimes in somewhere with an exemplary comment, rinse and repeat. Same as it ever was, time is a flat circle, blah blah blah.

    9 votes

  19. Comment on I'm not ready to let this place go in ~tildes

    AnthonyB
    Link Parent
    I think it's just been a while since there was drama that took over the site for a few days. Combine that with the end-of-summer-break vibe in God's post and it probably has some people feeling a...

    I don’t understand everyone else speaking about the most recent meta-conversations as foreshadowing the site shutting down.

    I think it's just been a while since there was drama that took over the site for a few days. Combine that with the end-of-summer-break vibe in God's post and it probably has some people feeling a little rattled. I'm not sure why that's the reaction, but it's nice to know that people really care about this place.

    Come to think of it, I don't know if we've had this level of drama since the great influx of '23, so this might be some of y'all's first rodeo. This has happened several times before, and almost always for the same reason. Here's to hoping that people learn from it so the next big drama can be about something completely different.

    11 votes

  20. Comment on Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to federal stalking charges in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO in ~news

    AnthonyB
    (edited )
    Link Parent
    A couple of things: First, the world is a pretty big place. Any famous murderer who is at least a 4 is going to have fans. I'm not sure how serious the science behind this is, but they do have a...

    A couple of things:

    First, the world is a pretty big place. Any famous murderer who is at least a 4 is going to have fans. I'm not sure how serious the science behind this is, but they do have a word for it.

    Second, I think the memeification of Luigi is a little bit murkier than plainly idolizing him or the propaganda of the deed or whatever. Taylor Lorenz, who has been reporting on Internet and social media culture for a long time, made a video essay about the 'Somebody needs to do it' memes last year and I think it touches on your question. It's worth a watch, but the TL;DR/TMVF;DW is: frustration, despair, catharsis.

    9 votes