CptBluebear's recent activity
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Comment on What change would make you quit Tildes? in ~tildes
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Comment on How has inflation changed your quality of life? in ~finance
CptBluebear Link ParentCrassus may not have a digital cadaster or a car, but he did have a private army and sole access to a firefighting team.Crassus may not have a digital cadaster or a car, but he did have a private army and sole access to a firefighting team.
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Comment on What games have you been playing, and what's your opinion on them? in ~games
CptBluebear Link ParentGhost Ship Games seems to have launched into early access to try and figure things out along the way towards 1.1 and through no fault of their own, people seem to have the idea that it's a damn...Ghost Ship Games seems to have launched into early access to try and figure things out along the way towards 1.1 and through no fault of their own, people seem to have the idea that it's a damn crime that it's not at the level of the by now YEARS old DRG.
I agree, the reviews seem to be from people annoyed that it isn't DRG 2, while also expecting an early access game to be as good as the predecessor out of the gate. It's unreasonable and few reviews have any merit.
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Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
CptBluebear Link ParentSpaceX was the one where Elon was the most hands off, and it turned a profit using a product that can be used worldwide. That product enables communication for people that otherwise had no real...SpaceX was the one where Elon was the most hands off, and it turned a profit using a product that can be used worldwide. That product enables communication for people that otherwise had no real chance at a decent internet speed.
But then he started hemorrhaging money through Grok and the Twitter acquisition so he couldn't help himself but bail himself out through the profitability of SpaceX.
It turned a company with significance and a chance for serious growth into life support for a tumor that needn't be there.
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Comment on 'Stop Killing Games' movement gains momentum: California Assembly passes game protection bill in ~games
CptBluebear Link ParentThat is probably true, I framed it poorly because I wrote it too hastily. They seem to be vehemently against the reconstruction because it's against the law.If recreations were somehow done with permission, I bet they'd be celebrated.
That is probably true, I framed it poorly because I wrote it too hastily. They seem to be vehemently against the reconstruction because it's against the law.
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Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
CptBluebear Link ParentI think they do have their satellite stuff down pat. Starlink is genuinely a good product that sees profitability. Their rockets are simply expensive R&D but Starlink kept that in balance as to...I think they do have their satellite stuff down pat. Starlink is genuinely a good product that sees profitability. Their rockets are simply expensive R&D but Starlink kept that in balance as to not tank the company.. it's the acquisition of xAI and Twitter that has an outsized effect on their profitability.
Truthfully, I can't verify your question within their SEC filing. You're right that it would change the story.
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Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
CptBluebear Link ParentMy bet is that he will buy Tesla after the IPO and merge it with SpaceX like he did with xAI. Then weigh down the profitability of Starlink even more with another dead weight branch.My bet is that he will buy Tesla after the IPO and merge it with SpaceX like he did with xAI. Then weigh down the profitability of Starlink even more with another dead weight branch.
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Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
CptBluebear Link ParentSpaceX long term plan in their IPO filings boils down to AI. Their rocketry is mentioned surprisingly scarce. Starlink is the only profitable part of that company, with a respectable profit...SpaceX long term plan in their IPO filings boils down to AI. Their rocketry is mentioned surprisingly scarce. Starlink is the only profitable part of that company, with a respectable profit befitting a medium sized company, and the absolute anchor that is AI spending and Twitter/X pulling the entire venture into negative profitability.
The long term plan of SpaceX is "we'll figure out cooling in space some day, trust me" when "trust me" is something to back away from when Elon says that about anything.
It IPOs at an incredible level not befitting a company with this level of revenue, while also strong arming the Nasdaq into allowing everyone's 401k to pick up that stock at a ridiculous valuation. Courtesy of the low float.
It's a good way to dump the stock on the pensions when it inevitably sees a valuation downturn.
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Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk
CptBluebear Link ParentMost of these guys end up thinking they got the people this far, they MUST be needed to continue leading the people because others can't do it as well as they can. Like you said, even if they...even if they didn't start out like that
Most of these guys end up thinking they got the people this far, they MUST be needed to continue leading the people because others can't do it as well as they can. Like you said, even if they didn't start out like that. Some of the revolutionaries raving against the establishment end up becoming the establishment.
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Comment on 'Stop Killing Games' movement gains momentum: California Assembly passes game protection bill in ~games
CptBluebear (edited )Link ParentOh right, City of Heroes happened! It slipped my mind. Recently one very dedicated Nier fan recreated the entire mobile game after it shut down, gacha and all, and got some severe backlash from...Oh right, City of Heroes happened! It slipped my mind.
Recently one very dedicated Nier fan recreated the entire mobile game after it shut down, gacha and all, and got some severe backlash from it. Not just the company, but also the Japanese populace. Turns out they're vehemently against perceived piracy. They're certainly not appreciative of game restoration in the same way the US or Europe are.
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Comment on 'Stop Killing Games' movement gains momentum: California Assembly passes game protection bill in ~games
CptBluebear Link ParentIsn't it? Shuttering The Crew and launching the sequel to force players to the new game sure smells like intention to me. Ubisoft hasn't been very consumer friendly since the early aughties so I...This isn't malice, this is apathy.
Isn't it? Shuttering The Crew and launching the sequel to force players to the new game sure smells like intention to me. Ubisoft hasn't been very consumer friendly since the early aughties so I wouldn't put it past them.
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Comment on 'Stop Killing Games' movement gains momentum: California Assembly passes game protection bill in ~games
CptBluebear (edited )Link ParentAllowing private servers. It's relatively simple in this case. The tech is there. This is a hypothetical of course, Blizzard doesn't look anywhere near sunsetting WoW, nor do I expect them to...but then what should they be forced to do?
Allowing private servers. It's relatively simple in this case. The tech is there.
This is a hypothetical of course, Blizzard doesn't look anywhere near sunsetting WoW, nor do I expect them to allow private servers while they're still offering the service themselves, that'd be stupid. This is in case they ever decide to fully step away from the project and shut it down. I would want a game I paid for to be available through other means: i.e. private servers.
Edit to add: the market isn't self regulating this. The frequency of dead games is only increasing and doesn't seem to slow down without any governmental restrictions halting the practise. Turns out that the big boys in the industry are doing this disproportionately often.
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Comment on 'Stop Killing Games' movement gains momentum: California Assembly passes game protection bill in ~games
CptBluebear Link ParentI share my opinions with @Wes but do not want to speak for them. Even so, the bill is a step in the right direction. It's clearly insufficient, a game like World of Warcraft shouldn't be...I share my opinions with @Wes but do not want to speak for them. Even so, the bill is a step in the right direction. It's clearly insufficient, a game like World of Warcraft shouldn't be unilaterally disabled by the whims of a Blizzard either.
Before this, there were no protections. Any protections are good.
@Minori and yourself worried this may disproportionately affect smaller studios.. but I don't see how. Just make the game playable beyond its lifespan. The refund is akin to a fine. Make the game available and there's no refund.
The ask is rather small too, especially considering most smaller studios don't have permanent online requirements anyway. In general this should affect mostly larger studios, something Ross from Stop Killing Games points out too.Stop Killing Games was never created to force studios to hand over their IP, only to ask publishers and developers to allow one to continue playing in some form. Whether that's allowing private servers, removing the online requirements, or something else the Devs cook up.
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Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk
CptBluebear Link ParentIt probably is. Sports betting and prediction markets also make it trickle down to the individual level.It probably is. Sports betting and prediction markets also make it trickle down to the individual level.
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Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk
CptBluebear Link Parent800813800813
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
CptBluebear Link ParentAbsolutely. My opinion is simple: they both suck. One being worse doesn't excuse the other's existence. The fact I can't definitively state which one does more harm should speak for itself.That said, I also agree that sports betting is HUGE and no doubt causing untold amounts of harm on its own
Absolutely. My opinion is simple: they both suck. One being worse doesn't excuse the other's existence. The fact I can't definitively state which one does more harm should speak for itself.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
CptBluebear (edited )Link ParentDraft King's market cap is 12b while polymarket is estimated to be at 9-15b. That's not all, Robin Hood has integrated prediction markets into their investment app and have a market cap of 76b....Draft King's market cap is 12b while polymarket is estimated to be at 9-15b.
That's not all, Robin Hood has integrated prediction markets into their investment app and have a market cap of 76b.
Revenue for polymarket and kalshi is difficult to ascertain because they're private companies but 17 million seems like a vast underestimation. I think they have an annualized revenue in the hundreds of millions*. Granted, they do seem smaller than Draft Kings in terms of revenue though we shouldn't underestimate their growth compared to Draft Kings and its ilk.
Something weird about the designation of prediction markets makes it possible to do sports betting in states that disallow gambling, which means the prediction markets have a larger reach than "traditional" sports betting sites. This seems to be reflected in their valuation as they potentially have a larger customer base.
One stupid ass bet I recall was someone betting on how many cars would pass through an intersection within a set period of time. The sites are full with unreasonably specific bets.
*Irony here is that I railed against annualized revenue on Tildes not too long ago. In this case it's used to illustrate that it's unlikely they're only at 15m.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
CptBluebear Link ParentPrediction markets are larger than sports betting sites and these days the largest share of the prediction market profit pie is also sports betting. I can understand steering a company based on...Prediction markets are also small potatoes compared to the harm that sports betting are causing.
Prediction markets are larger than sports betting sites and these days the largest share of the prediction market profit pie is also sports betting.
I can understand steering a company based on where you think the world is going. I don't think I agree that needs to happen through the financial stress of regular folk being fleeced by insiders. Which is very easy to do when you can "predict" on whether or not a certain TV anchor will say a certain word during a segment. That TV anchor can just skew the results by.. simply saying the thing. There is little you can do about insider trading when you're betting on the mundane.
Additionally, you can currently gamble on whether or not Russian or Ukrainian troops reach a capture a certain village or win a certain battle. This can and is (likely, evidence points to yes) frequently exploited by officers on the ground simply delaying orders and pocketing the winnings.
I'm not at all convinced they're less harmful.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
CptBluebear Link ParentI think this is a first for me. Reading someone in favour of prediction markets. They're having a significant effect on the population by turning every possible thing into a gambling opportunity....I think this is a first for me. Reading someone in favour of prediction markets.
They're having a significant effect on the population by turning every possible thing into a gambling opportunity.
I'll concede that it works surprisingly well as a predictive model, but does that have to come in an ever increasing financial strain on the general populace?
What makes you think these things are a good thing?
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Comment on Valve raises Steam Deck OLED prices by up to $300 in ~games
CptBluebear Link ParentI saw some odd headlines and YouTube titles blaming Valve for this. Like yeah, they set the price.. but they don't control the cost. The Machine seems to have been rather close to release-ready. I...I saw some odd headlines and YouTube titles blaming Valve for this. Like yeah, they set the price.. but they don't control the cost.
The Machine seems to have been rather close to release-ready. I wonder if they can shutter the program indefinitely at this point.
I think this doesn't highlight (not purposefully) the effectiveness of the site's design philosophy. Strict enforcement of the "don't be an asshole" rule for one, but deliberate placement of friction too, as well as nudging people towards reading and voting on responses on their own posts.
Consider the placement where to create a new post. It's at the bottom so you have to scroll past all replies before adding your own, keeping standards up but also creating engagement as you're nudged towards reading before responding.
Additionally, responses in your inbox are not automatically marked as read and by making the mark read button tiny while also making Vote the first option available underneath the reply neatly push you towards engaging with purpose.
These are just a couple of examples that create an environment where people respond to each other in good faith. Most of the time. Things can get heated, we're human after all, but that's where rule number one comes back into play.