D_E_Solomon's recent activity
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Comment on SpaceX stock tumbles 23% from its high as average investor sees gains wiped out in ~finance
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Comment on SpaceX stock tumbles 23% from its high as average investor sees gains wiped out in ~finance
D_E_Solomon LinkIPOs are always dangerous to invest in if you're not an institutional investor. IPOs are usually going to be done in a firm's strongest year in order to juice as much return for the managers and...IPOs are always dangerous to invest in if you're not an institutional investor. IPOs are usually going to be done in a firm's strongest year in order to juice as much return for the managers and investors who own the firm pre-IPO. If you don't have the sophistication to model out the financials and long term value or you're not an institution, don't do invest in them.
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Comment on The global fertility crisis is worse than you think in ~society
D_E_Solomon Link ParentNot the op, but social security and medicare's financial arrangement only works because there are more younger workers who are paying into those systems then there are retired people drawing...Not the op, but social security and medicare's financial arrangement only works because there are more younger workers who are paying into those systems then there are retired people drawing benefits. Other countries have similar challenges with assorted government social schemes as well. Some of this could have been alleviated by lower government spending in years because at least in the US. Data from the last Social Security Trustees report is here: https://www.ssa.gov/oact/trsum/
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Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
D_E_Solomon LinkI was on vacation so had a little more reading time than usual. I'm currently reading Hawkes & Minford's translation of Cao Xueqin's Dream of the Red Chamber. It's one of the so called four great...I was on vacation so had a little more reading time than usual.
I'm currently reading Hawkes & Minford's translation of Cao Xueqin's Dream of the Red Chamber. It's one of the so called four great works of classic Chinese literature. I'm enjoying it once I got the people mapped out, but there are a bazillion characters. I don't think I'll read the whole thing, but I'll try and get at least 500-1000 pages of it. The book traces the social life of a great Chinese family through their ups and downs. It's very much social melodrama at it's best.
I finished Shen Tao's The Poet Empress which was really good. I liked the classical Chinese influence, the palace drama, and the twists and turns in it. I would put a content warning on it for domestic violence and cruelty in general.
Finally, I'm half way through Ezra Klein and Derek Thompson's Abundance. I really like their framing and they make a strong vision of an America that creates growth and more equality through better policy approaches. I found it a good antidote to what today's populist movements are missing.
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Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
D_E_Solomon Link ParentI love the Children of Time series - but I have to make sure I'm in a positive head space because of all the spiders. I don't mind spiders... but giant ones make me a bit nervous!I love the Children of Time series - but I have to make sure I'm in a positive head space because of all the spiders. I don't mind spiders... but giant ones make me a bit nervous!
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Comment on Who’s buying SpaceX and Anthropic? in ~finance
D_E_Solomon LinkSpaceX is a bit challenging from an investment thesis. They have a conglomerate problem where you have to really be buying into all of the parts of the conglomerate - if you think space is great,...SpaceX is a bit challenging from an investment thesis.
They have a conglomerate problem where you have to really be buying into all of the parts of the conglomerate - if you think space is great, but ai underperforms, you might be better being in a pure play space company. Modern finance has been moving away from conglomerates for a long time because of this issue.
There is also a governance issue there as well that investors have no ability to reign in Elon Musk if there is an issue there besides to sell their stock. SpaceX has supervoting shares, forced arbitration, and tight rules on shareholder proposals. So, you're really betting long that Elon Musk will continue to be a massive force for innovation - which is an iffy proposal based on recent track record.
Finally, there is a bunch of debt from the Twitter acquisition that is rolled up in there. That has to hurt any prospective valuations.
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Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk
D_E_Solomon Link Parent:'D Oh my gosh, I'm dying laughing. As far as I know, no. But when his family would use bar soap, he would save the little slivers at the very end of the bar, collect them, and then make a new bar...:'D Oh my gosh, I'm dying laughing. As far as I know, no. But when his family would use bar soap, he would save the little slivers at the very end of the bar, collect them, and then make a new bar out of the slivers.
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Comment on What are your personal crackpot conspiracy theories about the world right now? in ~talk
D_E_Solomon Link ParentMy uncle was a paper and pulp engineer for the first half of his career. He would always get very angry about the price of toilet paper. Of course, this man is incredibly thrifty - he would iron...My uncle was a paper and pulp engineer for the first half of his career. He would always get very angry about the price of toilet paper. Of course, this man is incredibly thrifty - he would iron used wrapping paper to smooth it out and reuse it.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentWe can build a balanced case that we want to ban insider trading while still retaining the other upsides of prediction markets. Well informed analysts can still drive much of the trading and have...We can build a balanced case that we want to ban insider trading while still retaining the other upsides of prediction markets. Well informed analysts can still drive much of the trading and have better insight into a prediction then the average person. That we have to either have full unfettered insider trading or no markets seems like too much black/white thinking.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentRight now, Polymarket is not legal to trade on in the US... I suspect that they would accept KYC and enhanced insider trading monitoring as a trade for legal access.Right now, Polymarket is not legal to trade on in the US... I suspect that they would accept KYC and enhanced insider trading monitoring as a trade for legal access.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentThanks for the information and links. I appreciate the time and effort. I'll give it a read this weekend when I have some focus time available :)Thanks for the information and links. I appreciate the time and effort. I'll give it a read this weekend when I have some focus time available :)
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link Parent"The value/accuracy of predictions markets has worsened as they've gotten the average gambler involved." I promise I'm not trying to sea lion - do you have a decent source on this? I haven't..."The value/accuracy of predictions markets has worsened as they've gotten the average gambler involved."
I promise I'm not trying to sea lion - do you have a decent source on this? I haven't noticed them getting particularly better or worse over time, but it's only a small portion of my information loop and I tend to focus on economic data more than anything else.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentIf you're senior enough in the government - you and anyone in your household should have to keep your investments - including in prediction markets - in a blind trust. If you're more senior but...If you're senior enough in the government - you and anyone in your household should have to keep your investments - including in prediction markets - in a blind trust. If you're more senior but not super senior, then probably have monitoring on investment accounts. Moreover, we have regulators in financial markets and they can monitor for suspicious positions to stop front running information.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentYeah, Polymarket geofences everyone in the United States, because it generally runs afoul of most securities laws. There are obviously ways around that - vpns and the like. So, prediction markets...Yeah, Polymarket geofences everyone in the United States, because it generally runs afoul of most securities laws. There are obviously ways around that - vpns and the like. So, prediction markets are not a backdoor to avoiding gambling restrictions.
I haven't looked much at Robinhood's prediction market. Their most recent 10-k shows 302 MM USD in revenue for Other which includes prediction markets over 2.6 B USD in revenue or right around 12%.
There are silly things to bet on prediction markets - but there are a lot of bored analysts analyzing things because it's a test of skill for them - not a particularly nefarious scheme going on.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentI think insider trading should be illegal and that the government should have rules against it. There are already rules preventing insider trading for employees of public companies trading on...I think insider trading should be illegal and that the government should have rules against it. There are already rules preventing insider trading for employees of public companies trading on proprietary information.
That doesn't eliminate the value of having people who do careful analysis and place their own bets without inside information - that's no different then financial analysts doing the same and investing in stocks.
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Comment on I think Anthropic and OpenAI have found product-market fit in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentThe water consumption for data centers is tiny compared to that of agriculture and generally a tiny percentage compared to what's available. See here or here from r/askengineers.The water consumption for data centers is tiny compared to that of agriculture and generally a tiny percentage compared to what's available. See here or here from r/askengineers.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentDraft Kings 2025 revenue is 6 billion dollars. Polymarket's 2025 revenue is 17 million dollars. It's not even close. Generally, if you're betting on something like what a news anchor will say, you...Draft Kings 2025 revenue is 6 billion dollars. Polymarket's 2025 revenue is 17 million dollars. It's not even close.
Generally, if you're betting on something like what a news anchor will say, you would also account that they can be betting and influence the outcome. So that becomes part of the estimate. I don't see a lot of degenerate gambling on polymarket, but I don't have any access to their demographics.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon Link ParentMarkets with actual stakes are usually very good at clearing information and reflecting information. If I'm trying to help steer a company (which I do), a lot of my decision making is based on...Markets with actual stakes are usually very good at clearing information and reflecting information. If I'm trying to help steer a company (which I do), a lot of my decision making is based on where I think the world will be in 6 months to a year. If I make better decisions, then we make more money, have less chance of laying people off, and we can pay people more.
Prediction markets are a lot more useful then sports betting which is mostly entertainment. Prediction markets are also small potatoes compared to the harm that sports betting are causing.
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Comment on US Pentagon puts building blocks in place for Cuba invasion in ~society
D_E_Solomon Link ParentSure. Russia also has hundreds pointed at Europe and US military bases in Europe. The Soviets put missles in Cuba in part in response to the US putting them in Turkey - and relations between...Sure. Russia also has hundreds pointed at Europe and US military bases in Europe. The Soviets put missles in Cuba in part in response to the US putting them in Turkey - and relations between Turkey and the Soviet Union were frosty to hostile for a long time after.
Just because there's a tit for tat, doesn't mean that we shouldn't penalize someone for aiding an enemy.
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Comment on US FBI says Google engineer used internal search data to win $1.2M on Polymarket in ~tech
D_E_Solomon LinkI generally think prediction markets are a good thing. They're a really useful way to get a sense of what the political and economic environment will be in the near to mid future. They do need to...I generally think prediction markets are a good thing. They're a really useful way to get a sense of what the political and economic environment will be in the near to mid future.
They do need to be well regulated to make sure that bets can't be made that have significant negative externalities - no murder contracts for instance - and insider trading needs to be tightly regulated. That the google engineer was charged for insider trading is a good thing.
Their largest debt is a 20B bridge loan graded at SOFR + 1.75% - so the interest rate is going to fluctuate which will broadly follow inflation. Think of an adjustable rate mortgage and not a fixed rate mortgage as your point of comparison.