Amarok's recent activity
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Comment on o3 - wow in ~tech
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Comment on o3 - wow in ~tech
Amarok Link ParentI see a world where every building has its own small modular reactor. About the size of a fridge, moderately higher power output than a room full of gas generators, but you only refuel it once...Sorry, you lost me there already.
I see a world where every building has its own small modular reactor. About the size of a fridge, moderately higher power output than a room full of gas generators, but you only refuel it once every year, take it in for parts maintenance every ten, and it's always running. I expect to have my own someday so I don't have to rely on a shoddy power grid and I'd buy one tomorrow if they were on the market. I think I'd put it in its own shed rather than in the basement, though. The waste heat is a pain in the ass to deal with, though it does make for cheap desalination and heating.
The simple truth is we do that, or we have a civilization level collapse - it's the only solution that's guaranteed to work. All other solutions to all other problems in all other domains (no exceptions) depend upon as much cheap energy as we can generate, and nuclear has absolutely no competition whatsoever when it comes to the energy density of the power systems. This is as close to an inevitable outcome as it gets.
It might be MSRs, gas cooled reactors, or some fancy power system like Helion's fusion reactors that does away with turbines - doesn't matter which horse wins. The only reason it hasn't happened yet is because people's idea of nuclear power is sixty years out of date with what's already running in the lab today, and they think reactor = bomb (which is total nonsense, thanks Hollywood).
The AI craze creates the perfect excuse for a bunch of tech moguls to rush generation four fission and prototype fusion systems. Ten billion is overkill for this project, could probably do it with one billion and in less time than it took for the Manhattan project. They'll make almost as much money selling the power systems as they do on the AI technology. Humanity's first multi-trillionaire is probably going to be the person who gets this tech to the market. Sam Altman is already investing.
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Comment on o3 - wow in ~tech
Amarok Link ParentWe already have two ways to solve this problem and we're going to use both of them. The first is to start mass producing nuclear power systems and reduce electricity cost to a fraction of a...We already have two ways to solve this problem and we're going to use both of them.
The first is to start mass producing nuclear power systems and reduce electricity cost to a fraction of a percent of what it is now. We already know how and have already started doing this using small modular reactor technology. We need to do this anyway, for more important reasons than tech. It'll be refreshing to see AI driving development of climate solutions just by power demand. We can't seem to get the ball rolling there by ourselves - well, now we have help, with all of the deepest pockets lining up to pitch in. Capitalist frenzy mode is super effective.
The second is to iterate the hardware and methodology to get more bang per watt of power consumed. Business as usual for the tech industry. The switch to optical computation is the biggest potential gain here, and with the AI helping us design the new paradigm I see no reason it shouldn't happen in a fraction of the time it took to invent and iterate electronics to this level. We're hardly starting from scratch. What took a hundred years to do with electronics can take ten to do with optics. In the meantime, I'm sure there's plenty of in-code method-based optimizations waiting for us to discover as we better understand how to design these systems. The tech is two years old, it's not even a toddler yet. There's plenty of room left in silicon before we need to hit the optics.
The data center that costs you $350,000 for a nine-minute computation today comes on a $350 card that fits in a single slot in your computer tomorrow. It'll take a half hour instead of nine minutes, but at least now everyone can run their own. That's what tech does. Nvidia remembers how much money they made selling GPUs to gamers. Once the profits in the big iron get stale they'll do that again with the AI tech.
The biggest stumbling block to both of these solutions has always been justifying the cost in a capitalist system that fundamentally couldn't care less about ethics or rules or the future - only the bottom line. If the demand for AI is there and it delivers the money, we're going to get the necessary investments, fast.
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Comment on o3 - wow in ~tech
Amarok (edited )LinkAuthor's summary: All the talk about AI models 'hitting a wall' and slowing down has been vaporized - in fact we don't appear to be approaching any walls at all. That was just wishful thinking on...Author's summary:
o3 isn’t one of the biggest developments in AI for 2+ years because it beats a particular benchmark. It is so because it demonstrates a reusable technique through which almost any benchmark could fall, and at short notice. I’ll cover all the highlights, benchmarks broken, and what comes next. Plus, the costs OpenAI didn’t want us to know, Genesis, ARC-AGI 2, Gemini-Thinking, and much more.
All the talk about AI models 'hitting a wall' and slowing down has been vaporized - in fact we don't appear to be approaching any walls at all. That was just wishful thinking on the part of some researchers and it has now been demonstrated as false. This model, in a nutshell, can beat subject matter expert humans at anything you can create a benchmark to measure, with only a few holdouts for spatial reasoning and other niche areas that are just too 'soft' in the data (for now) to succumb to rigorous reasoning steps. The o3 model does this at an absurd electrical processing cost, but in minutes it still solves what would take any human expert days to calculate. Results are well into the 90th percentile now on even the most grueling math and physics thrown at it.
It's not quite an AGI but it is blurring the line and closing in on that goal faster than any experts or futurists (including the crazy ones) ever predicted it could. There are still no brakes on this train, and safety is becoming a very real concern with increasing urgency. I look forward to learning how to install a nuclear reactor in my data centers just to power these things.
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o3 - wow
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Comment on Alton Brown eats his spicy dream feast | Heat Eaters in ~food
Amarok LinkAlton only gets better with age (and alcohol). Good Eats was never cancelled, it just went underground. :)Alton only gets better with age (and alcohol). Good Eats was never cancelled, it just went underground. :)
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Alton Brown eats his spicy dream feast | Heat Eaters
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Comment on ‘Unprecedented risk’ to life on Earth: Scientists call for halt on ‘mirror life’ microbe research in ~science
Amarok Link ParentIt seems like the research would be perfectly safe, if it were conducted in labs in the middle of the sahara, or antarctica, or on the moon. Pretty easy to enforce strict quarantine of those...It seems like the research would be perfectly safe, if it were conducted in labs in the middle of the sahara, or antarctica, or on the moon. Pretty easy to enforce strict quarantine of those areas, and anything that somehow gets outside is toast. But that's too difficult and expensive for the companies, and much too annoying for the researchers, so we can just pop it into a garage in mid-town somewhere instead. :P
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Comment on I've added ~society for topics related to politics, law, policies, and similar societal-level subjects in ~tildes.official
Amarok Link ParentThat's the intended purpose of the ~tildes group here - and that group is intended to be the root forum for the continued development of the Tildes software itself, even across all future Tildes...- Exemplary
I was actually musing to myself that seeing Deimos post a major site change feels like witnessing a seismic shift in this forum’s future culture. The infrastructure being laid down now will govern the dynamic of the site and discussions around one of the most controversial topics of all time. It feels like being in “the room where it happens”, or witnessing a constitutional amendment.
That's the intended purpose of the ~tildes group here - and that group is intended to be the root forum for the continued development of the Tildes software itself, even across all future Tildes sites running the software. It's called convocational software development, and it's a hybrid of the classic cathedral / bazaar models. There are discussions here, features and ideas and changes are proposed, then those get converted into tickets on the git repository which has its own forum for the developers to discuss the nitty gritty of the code and implementation of features.
For a couple of years all of this was done in a slack channel with a posse of reddit ex-moderators and other old hat internet veterans who remember the meaning of netiquette from the usenet days. We all brainstormed, and Deimos turned it into alpha code. As soon as the site went live, those discussions moved here so that they can take place in front of, gather feedback from, and establish trust with the users of the software. It absolutely has to be out in the open for it to work. Communities will never accept anything less than that, and if they don't get it, the site's days are numbered.
If you step back from it and look at the big picture, fundamentally it is an attempt to incarnate a democratic, meritocratic, trust based, self-moderating, user-driven, transparent communication system that protects user privacy, whose mechanics select for quality of content, accuracy of information, conversational insight, and ease of searching information. This is a system that, if we figure it out, has the potential to enhance self-governance, even within real-world governments and other organizations.
That I think is the 'final form' of social software. What we're building here is the toolset the internet needs to replace or at least enhance classical governmental models. It's a worthy challenge. The net overthrows every industry it comes into contact with - music, film, television, gaming, investing, banking, shopping, etc. Government models today are just antiquated pre-internet paradigms waiting to be replaced, and getting it right might be the most impactful thing social software can ever do. I'm looking forward to the day we tackle the concept of 'Robert's Rules of Order' in forum software.
We're just sitting here in the prototype/alpha idling until the rest of the internet wakes up and realizes that they need this sort of software, and decide to use it to take their communities back from Discord, Twitter, Reddit etc. Then there are going to be a lot of Tildes nodes out there, probably more nodes than reddit has subreddits or usenet had newsgroups. Each one can charge for access to pay the (tiny) hosting costs. Each app developer can charge for their apps. The users remain the source of funding.
Those nodes will come and go, but the mobile apps will tie them all together the way reddit ties together subreddits now - but as each individual app user desires, not as any one node or the developers of the code want it used. That's an improvement. That gets us the decentralization of control required to keep other factors from influencing the network or the communities on any given node. If one node collapses due to rogue admins it doesn't impact the others, and that community can just set up another one. It's a control resistant system.
The best part - AGPL licensing guarantees that no code developed for this project can ever remain secret once it is accessible on a public server. The moneyed interests cannot subvert this thing and take it back like they've done with so many failed GPL projects since the 90s. It's not a one-click affair to set up a Tildes node on a VPS yet, but it could become that easy with a single serious code sprint - so donate to the project.
I like the idea of this official Tildes remaining something of a black-tie affair, because the majority of the other sites won't be like that. The software itself is only one half of the equation, the other half is the character of the community of users. There needs to be an adult minded serious-business node at the helm of the project and this is it. I think we can say this is the only social software any one of us has ever used that actively deprograms people out of the skinner box mentality so ubiquitous in the design of other social systems.
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Comment on Rick Wakeman on prog rock, keyboards and his legendary career with Yes in ~music
Amarok (edited )Link ParentHe has the best drunk on stage story of all time. I think he could have had a career as a standup comedian and done very well. His Journey to the Center of the Earth and Myths and Legends of King...He has the best drunk on stage story of all time. I think he could have had a career as a standup comedian and done very well. His Journey to the Center of the Earth and Myths and Legends of King Arthur and the Knights of the Round Table were the first two prog albums I ever heard. There's not many since that have managed to match them either. Just wonderful stuff. In fact I made a huge mistake linking those because now I'm going to be spinning them for the rest of the night. It's been a while.
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Comment on Rick Wakeman on prog rock, keyboards and his legendary career with Yes in ~music
Amarok LinkIf this is your first time seeing Rick Wakeman talk about music, you are in for a treat. ;)If this is your first time seeing Rick Wakeman talk about music, you are in for a treat. ;)
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Rick Wakeman on prog rock, keyboards and his legendary career with Yes
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Comment on Trees and land absorbed almost no CO2 last year in ~enviro
Amarok Link ParentIt really confuses me as well. Aerosols are a terribly half-baked solution even under the best possible scientific interpretations of what's possible. It's a non-starter. The only geoengineering...It really confuses me as well. Aerosols are a terribly half-baked solution even under the best possible scientific interpretations of what's possible. It's a non-starter.
The only geoengineering solution I've ever seen that's scientifically plausible is a swarm of solar reflectors and/or collectors at L1 between the Earth and Sol. It'll take a Texas-sized total surface area, likely in the form of a gargantuan drone swarm with paper-thin sails. They can be launched in waves over time, superior in every way to the impractical solar mirror plans common to older L1 solutions. That just got easier thanks to SpaceX's latest advancements.
Whatever is up there had better be able to collect solar energy and use it to maintain a stable orbit or it will not remain in position very long, that's the hardest part. Once deployed this gets us the ability to block up to 2% of total solar radiation, and that's enough to reverse climate change over time. Unlike the aerosols, this solution can be adjusted in real time, just pull in the sails and let the light back through.
It's just a couple trillion bucks in space technology, may as well pair it with orbital manufacturing while we're at it and get more bang for the effort. Figure out a way to beam it around without creating a death laser and we can grab a couple terawatts of extra power per year that will eventually pay for the whole smash. No way in hell that private industry provides this solution, though. It'd take a Manhattan Project to get there with any sort of speed, otherwise this is tech for 200 years in the future.
It's a lot cheaper than paying for all the climate-induced damage in the long run, so one could make the case that there are no valid reasons not to do it.
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Comment on Choosing a TTRPG system in ~games.tabletop
Amarok (edited )Link ParentPathfinder 2 had two goals, far as I remember. The first was to bug fix the D&D system they inherited, and they knocked that one out of the park. The other was to publish fewer and better books so...Pathfinder 2 had two goals, far as I remember. The first was to bug fix the D&D system they inherited, and they knocked that one out of the park. The other was to publish fewer and better books so well play-tested, so full of options and streamlined content, that people would pay for them even though they were free. I'd say they managed that as well.
It's not really that D&D itself is bad, it's that WOTC manages it terribly, injects politics into it, attacks their online and streaming community, and lately has been trying to pull the entire tabletop world into the virtual space, which in my book is a cardinal sin. They are doing the same things that companies like Unity, Ubisoft, Adobe, Sony, and so many others have gotten instant vicious karma for doing. I refuse to trust a management team that makes decisions that bad no matter how many times they apologize, especially when there are better options on the table. That's my rant for today. :P
There's also Nimble's combat hacks which make entire combats take about five minutes, since the attack and damage rolls are combined into one roll and the weapon types matter even more. It's compatible with anything D20. If OP wants something really simple, combat doesn't get easier or faster than this. Simple solution, just halve the amount of dice hitting the table - wonder why nobody ever thought of that before now? :)
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Comment on Choosing a TTRPG system in ~games.tabletop
Amarok (edited )Link ParentNot really, in fact I'd say it's about the same from a crunch perspective. Going through a pile of fluffy WOTC books, beta classes, and unearthed arcana errata is more complicated than just having...Not really, in fact I'd say it's about the same from a crunch perspective. Going through a pile of fluffy WOTC books, beta classes, and unearthed arcana errata is more complicated than just having a couple massive pathfinder tomes where everything is well indexed and was put together smartly from the start. WOTC does too much shovelware to line their pockets.
Skills, feats, abilities, races, etc are all carbon copies of D&D. The system is more versatile, less rigid, and has a pile of good bug fixes for a lot of D&D's core problems and failings. You can actually rely on challenge ratings in Pathfinder, and they have literally never worked in any version of D&D for example. Combat is more streamlined, hit points and death situations are handled better, action economy is much simpler, and character classes are about as well balanced as I've ever seen in any TTRPG. PF2 even managed to keep casters and melee and rogues well balanced from levels one to twenty, something else no version of D&D ever did.
Golarion is a very solid campaign setting too, big world, tons of interesting adventure hooks. The systems are close enough that a moment's head calculation can convert from any version of D&D or other D20-based games into Pathfinder, it's built for that. Simple thing to import content from other games.
I'll also add that anyone familiar enough with D&D to make a new character will find that even easier in Pathfinder, since they've dispensed with rolling dice for ability scores. It's a hard point build system that's very easy to understand, so there won't be any broken characters due to poor rolls or bad choices in class/archetype combinations. In PF2 everything (and I mean everything) is like a Feat in D&D. You can pick ones outside of your class as well, which makes for a much better option than D&D's messy multi-classing system.
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Comment on Monophonics - Sage Motel (2022) in ~music
Amarok LinkThe finest in modern psychedelic soul, far as I can find. This band came out of a time machine. Also here is the song.link for the album on other platforms.The finest in modern psychedelic soul, far as I can find. This band came out of a time machine.
Also here is the song.link for the album on other platforms.
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Monophonics - Sage Motel (2022)
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Comment on Kris Kristofferson, revered songwriter who transcended genre, dead at 88 in ~music
Amarok Link ParentHe was the lead actor in one of my fav old school 80s scifi movies: MillenniumHe was the lead actor in one of my fav old school 80s scifi movies: Millennium
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Comment on Choosing a TTRPG system in ~games.tabletop
Amarok Link ParentI completely agree, with one massive caveat. I'd strongly suggest Pathfinder 2 instead. WOTC is dead, mostly thanks to Hasbro mismanagement and WOTC being run by people who hate tabletop gamers....I completely agree, with one massive caveat. I'd strongly suggest Pathfinder 2 instead. WOTC is dead, mostly thanks to Hasbro mismanagement and WOTC being run by people who hate tabletop gamers.
PF2 is D&D, except that Pathfinder books give you vastly more bang for the buck. In fact you don't even have to buy the books because unlike WOTC, Paizo maintains a very friendly open-source relationship with their community. One Pathfinder book has more than any 3-4 modern WOTC releases in it. They don't even publish one until it's several hundred pages, built like a brick with excellent toughness. I consider WOTC products to be weak fluff by comparison.
Your biggest problem will be finding a place that has PF2 books in stock, since they can't keep them on shelves due to the demand (for over a year now).
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~tech
All the fuss over benchmarks and AGI vs ASI vs human thought does make me roll my eyes a bit. Hard to measure intelligence when we can't even write down a rigorous formal definition of what intelligence is and how it operates and why it works in the first place. We're dealing with fuzzy concepts that we still fundamentally do not understand. Somewhere along the line of AI research I think we're going to start to get some real insight into this problem, and I'm very curious to find out.