The Treasury yield stress point
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super_james's recent activity
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Comment on Will American ideas tear France apart? Some of its leaders think so. in ~misc
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Comment on Will American ideas tear France apart? Some of its leaders think so. in ~misc
super_james Link ParentGiven the relative suffering between the worst off in the US and the worst off in literally any other democratic first world nation I gotta say I'm kind of sceptical of this thesis. The poor in...Given the relative suffering between the worst off in the US and the worst off in literally any other democratic first world nation I gotta say I'm kind of sceptical of this thesis.
The poor in Europe almost always have free health care and assistance with housing costs. Many countries even still have free university tuition. This is before you look at legally mandated holiday allowances, protections from spurious firings, maternity leave...
And these are all nominally available regardless of race or religion. There certainly are issues with discrimination everywhere. But to me it seems that the USA is a very poor model of how to fix this.
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Comment on Silicon Valley’s safe space: Slate Star Codex was a window into the psyche of many tech leaders building our collective future. Then it disappeared. in ~tech
super_james Link ParentCan you show that Scott holds up Charles Murray as "unfairly maligned"? That was not my understanding of the situation.Can you show that Scott holds up Charles Murray as "unfairly maligned"?
That was not my understanding of the situation.
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Comment on Tesla buys $1.5 billion in bitcoin, plans to accept it as payment in ~finance
super_james Link ParentIt's crazy to me that US CGT is only 15%! It was about that in the UK before the 2008 crisis.It's crazy to me that US CGT is only 15%!
It was about that in the UK before the 2008 crisis.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~tech
super_james Link ParentThis isn't scary, this would be fantastic.This isn't scary, this would be fantastic.
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Comment on The fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System in ~finance
super_james Link ParentYeah, this is a crux of the validity of the argument. She just states that China Belt & Road means US Elites Don't benefit from being the global reserve. But the mechanism isn't really explained....Yeah, this is a crux of the validity of the argument. She just states that China Belt & Road means US Elites Don't benefit from being the global reserve. But the mechanism isn't really explained.
I think the explanation is that exporting nations are not increasing their US Treasury holdings enough. So the Fed had to step in and now holds too much US Govt debt. But doing this is causing inflation. Albeit mainly in assets, only slowly in CPI.
There's the whole section about productivity vs average incomes, wealth concentration etc. And it's arguable that this is the driver for US political dysfunction (Trump).
I'm really enjoying this back and forth. It's helping me get to grips with the information. Thank you!
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Comment on The fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System in ~finance
super_james Link ParentI'm in no way a real expert in this. But... well doesn't seem like anyone else is either! To me this seems a very good potted history of how global currencies work & can stop working. I found the...I'm in no way a real expert in this. But... well doesn't seem like anyone else is either!
To me this seems a very good potted history of how global currencies work & can stop working. I found the explanation of how China's Belt and Road initiative is upsetting the current order quite eye opening. They're definitely broadly right on their history of Bretton Woods, Keynes & the gold standard.
For the rest well: "It's hard to make predictions especially about the future."
I guess the key question is will the US Government jump, or will they wait to be pushed? Given how well the status quo works for the elected officials and billionaires who fund them I would expect them to wait. In some ways this is a good test for the existence of a US "deep state".
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Comment on The fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System in ~finance
super_james Link ParentDid you read the whole article? They don't claim that the US reserve currency status is only supported by oil. They also argue quite convincingly that no one other currency can replace the dollar....Did you read the whole article?
They don't claim that the US reserve currency status is only supported by oil.
They also argue quite convincingly that no one other currency can replace the dollar. However, then they go into several multi-polar alternatives.
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Comment on No, Mars is not a free planet, no matter what SpaceX says in ~space
super_james Link ParentThe sci-fi Red Mars suggests that it's impossible to live on Mars without weapons. In such a hostile environment survival requires a bubble of engineered technology. To live there you need the...The sci-fi Red Mars suggests that it's impossible to live on Mars without weapons.
In such a hostile environment survival requires a bubble of engineered technology. To live there you need the competence and technology to maintain your bubble. That competence can be repurposed to destroy other bubbles.
Of course this assumes no dystopian technology of control.
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Comment on How to buy gifts that people actually want in ~life
super_james Link ParentI think this says more about you & the writer though? A charitable gift would be a bad gift for you because you don't really want to give to charity & doubt the giver would pick a charity for you...I think this says more about you & the writer though? A charitable gift would be a bad gift for you because you don't really want to give to charity & doubt the giver would pick a charity for you not them.
A charity gift to me — for a charity I value that the giver does not — would be ideal.
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Comment on It’s 2020. Why do printers still suck? in ~tech
super_james Link ParentYup I bought a second hand small office HP B&W laser, scanner & fax over a decade ago. It cost under £50 presumably it was just being got rid of. After perhaps 7 years it started becoming...Yup I bought a second hand small office HP B&W laser, scanner & fax over a decade ago. It cost under £50 presumably it was just being got rid of.
After perhaps 7 years it started becoming unreliable in turning on. A google explained this is a known problem with this model and it needs the ICs reflowing. So I took the circuit board to my local maker space and some students re-flowed the ICs with a hot air soldering station.
Since then it's been utterly bombproof.
The problem isn't printers, it's people buying junk that isn't designed for their use case.
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Comment on Weekly thread for news/updates/discussion of George Floyd protests, racial injustice, and policing policy - week of July 13 in ~news
super_james LinkInteresting post - Blue Cities Blue Lives on MetaFilter about discrimination in Democrat held cities. Reminds me of a discussion I had on here a long time ago with u/dubteedub on the morality of...Interesting post - Blue Cities Blue Lives on MetaFilter about discrimination in Democrat held cities. Reminds me of a discussion I had on here a long time ago with u/dubteedub on the morality of putting your children first. I wondered if recent events had changed your view?
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Comment on Three stories of people fired after being accused of racism in ~life
super_james Link ParentI really think a cleaned up and edited version of this take should be an article in its own right.I really think a cleaned up and edited version of this take should be an article in its own right.
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Comment on Spider-Man: Miles Morales is the latest example of Black people being relegated to side stories in games in ~games
super_james Link ParentI'm aware, dubteedub's statistic of teen game playing was also only for America.I'm aware, dubteedub's statistic of teen game playing was also only for America.
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Comment on Spider-Man: Miles Morales is the latest example of Black people being relegated to side stories in games in ~games
super_james Link ParentThis is an irrelevant statistic from the point of view of the size of the market. America was 73% white as of 2017 and 13% black. wikipedia. Not really interested in the wider argument but that...69% of hispanic teens play video games 71% of white teens play video games 83% of black teens play video games.This is an irrelevant statistic from the point of view of the size of the market. America was 73% white as of 2017 and 13% black. wikipedia.
Not really interested in the wider argument but that use of statistics is misleading.
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Comment on <deleted topic> in ~tech
super_james Link ParentOoh and it's possible to filter on tags now! Awesome.Ooh and it's possible to filter on tags now! Awesome.
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Comment on The case for reparations: We've had 250 years of slavery, 90 years of Jim Crow, 60 years of separate but equal and 35 years of racist housing policy. Without addressing this, the US can't move on in ~humanities.history
super_james Link ParentIt's contorted logic because it assumes white self interested voters are a monolith of uninformed idiots. That you can run any policy platform because facts don't matter. When Whites make up 70%...It's contorted logic because it assumes white self interested voters are a monolith of uninformed idiots. That you can run any policy platform because facts don't matter. When Whites make up 70% of the US population and your political opponents research into what lies to tell already suggests your policy is going to be unpopular.
I have seen so many people require education that Black Lives Matter doesn't imply special treatment at the expense of others. To me making it explicit policy seems like self-sabotage. Still I hope it can be done, recent moves to defund police departments seem hopeful.
Btw I think this is a better article arguing in favour of your contorted logic.
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Comment on The case for reparations: We've had 250 years of slavery, 90 years of Jim Crow, 60 years of separate but equal and 35 years of racist housing policy. Without addressing this, the US can't move on in ~humanities.history
super_james Link ParentSo I agree with this from an economic perspective too. You would see increases in innovation & tax. I'm also a huge fan of NASA, but funding for NASA is incredibly hard fought. Crucially this...So I agree with this from an economic perspective too. You would see increases in innovation & tax. I'm also a huge fan of NASA, but funding for NASA is incredibly hard fought. Crucially this economic argument also doesn't make any more sense when legislating by race vs by poverty or class.
As for driving people into the arms of racists I'm not sure to what extent that would actually happen. Insofar as it does, it's almost surely going to be on the basis of misperceptions or falsehoods that racists perpetuate anyway.
This seems like some very contorted logic. Racists lie that race based welfare policy exists. These lies already persuades some white voters to vote conservative. So we should make the lies they tell a policy platform. Do you think swing voters don't look at policy?
Even the New Deal policies in the article carefully targetted to exclude blacks weren't explicitly legislating on race. It would make sense to me to borrow that strategy in reverse.
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Comment on What are you reading these days? in ~books
super_james LinkThe Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes by Zachary D. Carter This was recommended on Matt Stollers BIG newsletter and I've been meaning to read about Keynes for a...The Price of Peace: Money, Democracy, and the Life of John Maynard Keynes by Zachary D. Carter
This was recommended on Matt Stollers BIG newsletter and I've been meaning to read about Keynes for a while so thought I'd pick it up.
It's a surprisingly entertaining and approachable read although feels very long. It's also full of little historical moments I'm amazed I hadn't come across such as the 1926 General Strike in the UK and how Keynes was involved in negotiations for the Treaty of Versailles and Bretton Woods.
I've not finished it yet but I'd highly recommend it. It's really making me realize how current events echo recent history. The 1918 flu pandemic tore through the negotiations after WW1, obvious from the dates once you know but it'd never occurred to me before.
Don't be sorry! It was good to get your perspective, thanks.