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Weekly coronavirus-related chat, questions, and minor updates - week of June 15
This thread is posted weekly, and is intended as a place for more-casual discussion of the coronavirus and questions/updates that may not warrant their own dedicated topics. Tell us about what the situation is like where you live!
A data scientist that was working for the state of Florida has been fired after she inquired how to file a whistleblower complaint about how she was asked to alter data to make it appear Florida was ready to reopen.
Germany's contact tracing app has been released. Generally viewed as safe and a commendable effort. It's open source https://github.com/corona-warn-app/
It looks to substantially fulfill the requirements outlined by the CCC: https://www.ccc.de/en/updates/2020/contact-tracing-requirements - and the CCC has not criticized this app to my knowledge. Given the previous scrutiny, this is the best grade you can expect.
A paper outlines two potential attacks on the system. One of which could cause false positives, the other could cause privacy leaks. I've discussed the second one before on here; the major problem being that it is based upon the users actually publishing their tokens. That makes it an untargetable and avoidable attack. Similar criticisms have been voiced in german here: https://twitter.com/pavel23/status/1271881305614057474
I'll install it.
I’d been thinking about the issue detailed in section 4.1 of that paper last night (replaying or relaying identity messages to cause false positives). You’d have to be pretty evil to attempt something like that but I’m sure it will happen at least on a small scale.
The main problem with that kind of attack is that you don't know ahead of time whether the signal you picked up will eventually be marked as infected. So you have to go fishing for a lot of IDs. Currently, 1 in 200000 people get diagnosed per day. So if you want to cause one wrong case, you'd have to harvest a lot of IDs from random people (and make sure not to catch the same person a bunch of times) and find a way to broadcast them to a whole bunch of other people. The twitter thread has a back-of-the-envelope calculation on the feasibility of that, considering the inherent bottleneck of bluetooth, if I understand him right.
So as long as the epidemic is as nicely behaved as it is right now, that's not all too viable I think. Add to that that kind of behaviour can't be done on the down-low because you're broadcasting a lot more activity in a certain place than there are people around. If someone writes an app that displays the amount of bluetooth handshakes done in the last X minutes, we know something is up.
In the WHO's briefing today, they were clear that the pandemic is still accelerating and that yesterday was the worst day yet:
It's really worrisome to see how many people seem to be treating it like we've somehow gotten past the worst of the situation, when in reality almost nothing has changed. I go out occasionally to pick up take-out food or groceries, and there are so many people out that seem to just be carrying on as normal, not wearing masks, and so on. Even the traffic feels like it's pretty much back to regular levels here. It seems like we just hit a limit on how long people are willing to inconvenience their normal lives for.
As some actual data corroborating my feelings about traffic (it's for the US, but I'm sure Canada is similar): U.S. traffic has rebounded to about 90 percent of pre-pandemic levels, analysts say
Over the past few weeks, I've noticed that two opposing positions have become popular: we're either mostly past the worst, or the worst is yet to come. I think the current situation is a bit more nuanced than those two extremes, and highly dependent on what region you're from.
Europe (except for Russia) is mostly past the worst, with very low rates of new cases and deaths compared to only a month or two ago. South America on the other hand is currently in an immensely rough situation, with countries like Peru, Chile and most notably Brazil seeing high growth rates. The US is somewhere inbetween those two regions: daily growth of cases is more or less linear (and has been so since early April), even ever so slightly trending downwards, with a minor uptick over the past few days.
In my home country, the Netherlands, restrictions have been slowly lifted over the past few weeks, and public life is gradually starting up again. Fortunately, there has not been an associated rise in cases. In fact, the daily amount of new cases is the lowest it has ever been. If I had to speculate, even fairly imperfect adherence to social distancing measures is sufficient in a country like the Netherlands, where probably something like 20% of the population have already developed immunity.
To put things in perspective, growth is much closer to linear than exponential in most of the world. That is already a huge win compared to the exponential growth seen almost everywhere in the early stages of the pandemic.
Another record breaking day today too: WHO reports largest single-day increase in coronavirus cases
I created a website that visualizes the COVID-19 data from the Johns Hopkins University: https://covid19.evrim.io
Also, if anyone's interested, it is open-source: https://github.com/evrimfeyyaz/covid-19-in-charts.
I went to the BLM silent march in Seattle last Friday, so now I am on the lookout for symptoms. Everyone was wearing masks, and it was outdoors and pouring down rain, so I think I'll be alright.
King County recently determined that only 1% of protestors are testing positive for COVID, so they aren't recommending testing unless you have symptoms..
Last Sunday the boardwalk near my house became full of people looking for fun and leisure, so the mayor closed it for the time being. The beach was already boarded. I went out for a walk just now and inadvertently crossed into the forbidden zone — the signaling was not clear at all an there were no barriers so I figured it was fine. The police escorted me out — they were actually very nice (as nice as Brazilian police can be at least). The allowed zone is extremely dangerous, especially right now. I went there today and didn’t feel safe at all. I understand and approve his decision, but there are no parks around and the beach is the only way to get in contact with nature. The ocean was my daily scape. Now I can’t even look at it.
President of Honduras Tests Positive for Coronavirus
New Zealand has had a few new cases introduced from travelers (returning citizens/residents), after getting down to zero active cases on June 8. They allowed two cases out of the mandatory quarantine early and before they had been tested, so now there are concerns about how much they might have spread it.
Apple will re-close some stores in Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, and Arizona due to coronavirus spikes
Mexico’s Central de Abasto: How coronavirus tore through Latin America’s largest market
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Nurses stage dueling demonstrations at St. Rose Hospital amid coronavirus outbreak and state violations
‘They Just Dumped Him Like Trash’: Nursing Homes Evict Vulnerable Residents
Actor-comedian D.L. Hughley tests positive for coronavirus after collapsing onstage in Nashville
Hundreds test positive at Tyson Foods plant in Arkansas