10 votes

Cars and trucks are changing forever

26 comments

  1. [20]
    AugustusFerdinand
    Link
    This is a conversation I, and I'm sure many other car enthusiasts, have had with friends over the past several years as hybrid and electric cars became more capable, commonplace, and not just...

    This is a conversation I, and I'm sure many other car enthusiasts, have had with friends over the past several years as hybrid and electric cars became more capable, commonplace, and not just toys/fashion statements. I think SavageGeese is being a bit pessimistic in the "outlaw all ICE" thought, although I don't think it's out of the question that some places are likely to do so (coughCaliforniacough) such as cities (NYC, London) that are extremely dense or already have incredibly robust public transport. Jay Leno has a more optimistic approach, mentioned in an old video that I can no longer find, to the EV "revolution" and that is one where EVs will do to the internal combustion engine (and manual transmission) what the ICE did to horses; turn them from working animals to enthusiast hobby.

    And as a car enthusiast (to put it mildly), I see nothing wrong with that.

    To the vast majority of people a car is little more than an appliance that is necessary to complete their required daily tasks, and there is no reason that appliance shouldn't be as efficient as possible. Since public transit isn't feasible for many places, the easiest way to make the transportation appliance efficient is the adoption of EVs. Just as you rarely see someone riding a horse for pleasure, an ICE vehicle should be taken out when it's being driven for the pleasure of doing so and that shift will result in a higher quality of enthusiast vehicle.

    ICE vehicles are quickly getting to the point that they cannot compete with an EV in nearly every possible measure of performance. But what an EV cannot match is the experience. An ICE car at the limit is a stadium full of roaring fans during the final moments of the championship game; an EV is a 2020 lockdown game with no one in the stands. Humans like noise, we like our concerts packed, our stadiums at capacity, and our action movies with explosions. ICE delivers that, it delivers the music from the concert, the scream of the crowds, and thousands of explosions per minute. The EV is going to be faster and for some that achievement is enough, they like the high score, they like being in 1st place, but many many more just like to have fun. They enjoy the mechanical harmony of a few hundred parts working in unison to not disintegrate while propelling itself forward and the symphony of sounds that come with it.

    I say bring on the EVs, let them be the boring commuter cars and unobtanium hyper-mobiles, because it's not the ends of the spectrum where the most fun is had.

    12 votes
    1. [13]
      Octofox
      Link Parent
      Humans also like sleeping. Perhaps we could enforce a "No ICE vehicles between 22:00-08:00" rule. Also the cool factor entirely goes away when you are on a road full of other cars and busses and...

      Humans like noise, we like our concerts packed, our stadiums at capacity

      Humans also like sleeping. Perhaps we could enforce a "No ICE vehicles between 22:00-08:00" rule. Also the cool factor entirely goes away when you are on a road full of other cars and busses and it becomes one giant annoying noise.

      11 votes
      1. [4]
        AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        Going to address multiple comments at once to not inundate the thread, pinging @imperialismus and @teaearlgraycold as well. The noise from cars isn't primarily from the ICE, but the tires and the...

        Going to address multiple comments at once to not inundate the thread, pinging @imperialismus and @teaearlgraycold as well.

        The noise from cars isn't primarily from the ICE, but the tires and the road. At rest the noise difference between an ICE and EV is 20dB, at 6mph it's 7dB, and once above 15mph EVs and ICE cars emit the same amount of noise, with the potential for EVs to actually be louder as speeds increase because they're heavier. The heavier the vehicle the more tire/road noise generated. So unless you're sleeping next to a middle-of-the-night school zone speed limited area, banning ICE vehicles while you sleep isn't going to reduce the noise any. On a road full of EVs you're going to get the same "giant annoying noise".

        Do some people make their cars/motorcycles unnecessarily loud? Yes.
        Is it so prevalent that it's actually a significant contributor to the overall noise of ICE vehicles? No.
        You likely point it out because it specifically annoys you and so you're prejudiced against it, just as people tend to hold a prejudice against cyclists because they assume that cyclists break laws constantly, but studies show they only do so at the same rate as motorists.

        I too find overly loud ICE vehicles (cars and motorcycles) to be annoying, but there is a functional purpose to it. A louder exhaust generally has less restrictions within it and is freer flowing, less restriction and more flow increases the efficiency of an ICE, generating more power. That said, being louder doesn't have to be a product of a freer flowing exhaust. I don't enjoy making my ears bleed or having a tiresome exhaust drone from my vehicles when driving, so I design my exhaust systems to sound good, but be barely above stock noise levels during normal driving; they're only loud under full throttle acceleration by design. However, people are lazy (including the aftermarket exhaust manufacturers), most people don't design their own exhaust systems, and the path of least resistance (literally and figuratively) is to just make it loud.
        I'll add this little tidbit though, pretty much any otherwise stock ICE vehicle since about 2008-2010 and motorcycle since about 2000-2005 will have gained a statistically insignificant amount of power from a freer flowing exhaust. Manufacturers have done the iterative development over the past 30 years to eek out more and more efficiency from their ICE while remaining within the noise regulations. So much so that adding a single modification, as many do, such as a louder exhaust isn't going to provide a noticeable change in power/efficiency. To get improvements in modern vehicles you truly have to do a complete set of modifications and tuning, loud exhaust just won't cut it.
        Which segues into my last point, we don't "allow" people to modify their motorbikes to be that loud any more than we allow people to speed or change lanes without a turn signal. Just about every city/state/country has noise regulations and these overly loud vehicles violate such, but it's a matter of enforcement. Some get caught and are forced to change it, most do not; just as some people get a ticket for speeding, but most do not.

        6 votes
        1. [3]
          Octofox
          Link Parent
          I agree that the average car isn’t that loud. The problem seems to be almost entirely people with modified cars and motorbikes flooring it at the lights in the middle of the night.

          So unless you're sleeping next to a middle-of-the-night school zone speed limited area, banning ICE vehicles while you sleep isn't going to reduce the noise any.

          I agree that the average car isn’t that loud. The problem seems to be almost entirely people with modified cars and motorbikes flooring it at the lights in the middle of the night.

          3 votes
          1. AugustusFerdinand
            Link Parent
            Which just circles back to enforcement (or lack thereof). You can inform, via the non-emergency line, of illegal activity in your vicinity at specific times and request increased enforcement in...

            Which just circles back to enforcement (or lack thereof). You can inform, via the non-emergency line, of illegal activity in your vicinity at specific times and request increased enforcement in the area. All it takes is a ticket or visible presence to make the area no longer attractive to those types and solve the problem.

            2 votes
          2. andy_b_goode
            Link Parent
            Yes exactly. I live on a fairly busy road, and the normal road noise doesn't bother me too much, especially when I'm indoors. What bothers me is the people with loud car and bike mods, especially...

            Yes exactly. I live on a fairly busy road, and the normal road noise doesn't bother me too much, especially when I'm indoors. What bothers me is the people with loud car and bike mods, especially when they're taking off from the nearby lighted intersection.

            That being said, I don't think the problem is internal combustion engines; the problem is internal combustion engines that have been modified to be loud. I'm sure once EVs are more common, some jackass is going to find a way of making them obnoxiously loud too.

            The only solution, most likely, is better enforcement.

            2 votes
      2. [8]
        imperialismus
        Link Parent
        Surely there is a middle ground between the noisiest muscle cars and the deathly silent EVs. A lot of countries are starting to mandate artificial sound for electric cars moving at low speeds...

        Surely there is a middle ground between the noisiest muscle cars and the deathly silent EVs. A lot of countries are starting to mandate artificial sound for electric cars moving at low speeds because otherwise pedestrians can't hear them and accidents occur.

        1 vote
        1. [5]
          Octofox
          Link Parent
          Sure, but the people complaining about lack of sound are usually all in the group that have the loudest modded cars and motorbikes. Its absurd how we allow people to modify motorbikes to be so...

          Sure, but the people complaining about lack of sound are usually all in the group that have the loudest modded cars and motorbikes.

          Its absurd how we allow people to modify motorbikes to be so loud that you can't hear the person talking next to you on the sidewalk. When it provides no functional purpose and wasn't like that from the factory.

          9 votes
          1. [3]
            teaearlgraycold
            Link Parent
            It’s also absurd that there are so many people that don’t feel intense shame doing that.

            It’s also absurd that there are so many people that don’t feel intense shame doing that.

            6 votes
          2. babypuncher
            Link Parent
            Some people are only happy if they feel like they are the center of attention wherever they go, regardless if the reason for that attention is positive.

            Some people are only happy if they feel like they are the center of attention wherever they go, regardless if the reason for that attention is positive.

            1 vote
        2. [2]
          NaraVara
          Link Parent
          Pedestrians only can't hear them if there's a general din from all the other automotive noise in the area. There is still plenty of noise from tire-friction on the road if vehicles are moving fast...

          Pedestrians only can't hear them if there's a general din from all the other automotive noise in the area. There is still plenty of noise from tire-friction on the road if vehicles are moving fast enough to cause accidents.

          3 votes
          1. imperialismus
            Link Parent
            The limits set were 20km/h in the EU and 30km/h in the US. At those speeds you're extremely unlikely to die if you get run over, but you can still fall and crack your head or break a bone,...

            The limits set were 20km/h in the EU and 30km/h in the US. At those speeds you're extremely unlikely to die if you get run over, but you can still fall and crack your head or break a bone, especially if you're elderly which many people who are visually or hearing impaired are.

            I mean, 20km/h is a fast jog. 30km/h is a full-on sprint. If a person runs you over at that speed you could be injured. Now imagine getting bumped by a one-ton metal box. A car barely needs any speed at all to potentially cause injuries, even if they're unlikely to be life threatening.

            4 votes
    2. [2]
      calm_bomb
      Link Parent
      I don't agree with you. Not all humans like noise. I live in a big city and I'm tired every day by the noise. I took a VW id.4 Uber a few days ago and it was bliss. I certainly will not miss the...

      I don't agree with you. Not all humans like noise. I live in a big city and I'm tired every day by the noise. I took a VW id.4 Uber a few days ago and it was bliss. I certainly will not miss the noise!

      5 votes
      1. AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        In case it wasn't clear, the "humans like noise" is specific to car enthusiasts.

        In case it wasn't clear, the "humans like noise" is specific to car enthusiasts.

        1 vote
    3. [2]
      meatrocket
      Link Parent
      SavageGeese also points out the inflating cost of enthusiast ICE vehicles. As a 21 year old who's always been an enthusiast but hasn't been around long enough to get a "real" job (or to have their...

      SavageGeese also points out the inflating cost of enthusiast ICE vehicles. As a 21 year old who's always been an enthusiast but hasn't been around long enough to get a "real" job (or to have their whole life's savings be worth more than a pretty nice refrigerator), I've lately found myself increasingly frustrated and disinterested with cars as a hobby. I mean, I can barely afford to change the sagging headliner in my Jetta, much less something like a new GTI, or even the ballooning prices of used enthusiast cars like the MR2 and Miata. And sure, I have lots of time and opportunity to save up for cars like that once I get my degree and start working for real. And sure, the car market is a garbage fire at the moment.

      My point is that being a car enthusiast already doesn't seem like an accessible hobby for a lot of people, and this while we are still in a market where internal combustion is the default.

      I think you're absolutely right about ICE cars becoming like horses, per your comparison. I just think it's a shame that the overlap between average people and car enthusiasts will probably shrink as a result. Obviously, there will be EV enthusiast cars, but you're right when you say that the experience is a huge part of the thrill. I love screaming engines; I love nailing a heel-toe downshift. As much as I look forward to this shift towards EVs for the everyman, I think we'll lose a lot of enthusiasts as these experiences become inaccessible to more and more people.

      3 votes
      1. AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        On the one hand the ballooning price of enthusiast ICE vehicles certainly looks like/is an issue, but on the other there's a lot more going into a new enthusiast ICE car. Take the Integra Type R...

        SavageGeese also points out the inflating cost of enthusiast ICE vehicles. As a 21 year old who's always been an enthusiast but hasn't been around long enough to get a "real" job (or to have their whole life's savings be worth more than a pretty nice refrigerator), I've lately found myself increasingly frustrated and disinterested with cars as a hobby. I mean, I can barely afford to change the sagging headliner in my Jetta, much less something like a new GTI, or even the ballooning prices of used enthusiast cars like the MR2 and Miata. And sure, I have lots of time and opportunity to save up for cars like that once I get my degree and start working for real. And sure, the car market is a garbage fire at the moment.

        On the one hand the ballooning price of enthusiast ICE vehicles certainly looks like/is an issue, but on the other there's a lot more going into a new enthusiast ICE car. Take the Integra Type R as an example. The 1998 model was $18k, which is $30k in today's money. $30k for a stripped down, AC as the only option, completely analog car. A new Civic Type R is $38k for a turbocharged, electronic wizard that'll run circles around just about anything from the 90's. An MR2 Turbo (I'm a fan myself) was $20k in 1992, that's $37k today. 1991 base Miata? $14k then, $28k today. The fact that a base 2021 Miata is only $26k is an achievement by Mazda. None of these things were affordable to a 21 year old when they were new; just as they are now, they were the toys of people in their early 30's. People out of college, with some experience under their belt, and their first well paying job. It's not the cars that are inflated, it's the wages that are stagnant.

        Yeah, used cars are overinflated right now (for various reasons), but I can't say that I think used enthusiast cars are too overpriced. Sure, places like Bring-a-Trailer have caused a level of awareness for vehicles of a certain vintage and rarity to rise and with it demand/prices, but that's the cycle of each generation of cars. Late 50's and early 60's were about style, late 60's to early 70's were about power, late 70's until late 80's was malaise as people figured out emissions and electronics, then the 90's arrived, electronics matured, power returned and brought reliability with it. The cars being lusted after now are just a cycle of the same that people were going through in the 90's over old muscle. Almost all enthusiast cars go through a cycle of being new and expensive, then used cheap and plentiful, then used rare and expensive again. There are some exceptions that never really drop in price and they tend to be era defining, like the S2000 the last of an analog breed in an electronic age.

        My point is that being a car enthusiast already doesn't seem like an accessible hobby for a lot of people, and this while we are still in a market where internal combustion is the default.

        Being a car enthusiast hasn't been accessible (from a cost standpoint) for a very long time, probably 30-40 years, unless you knew how to turn a wrench. Even growing up around race cars I knew there were two types of people, those that came to my uncle's shop to buy parts, and those that came to buy a car. We made our living on the latter, people that couldn't build it themselves or who's time was too valuable to do so. Which goes back to that wages point made earlier (along with a lack of people in trades).

        I think you're absolutely right about ICE cars becoming like horses, per your comparison. I just think it's a shame that the overlap between average people and car enthusiasts will probably shrink as a result. Obviously, there will be EV enthusiast cars, but you're right when you say that the experience is a huge part of the thrill. I love screaming engines; I love nailing a heel-toe downshift. As much as I look forward to this shift towards EVs for the everyman, I think we'll lose a lot of enthusiasts as these experiences become inaccessible to more and more people.

        The pool of enthusiasts will shrink, but I think it'll also clean up as well. There's far too many ricers running around with wings and stickers and loud exhausts in an ever increasing competition to be the loudest chimp in the gorilla enclosure. Which just happens as part of the cycle I mentioned earlier. Each era has the clingers that pick up something cheap and used and make it loud, but not any faster. They get bored when no one takes them seriously and move on. Now the cars they were running around in are either carefully restored or properly modified. I see EVs as having the potential to finally do away with the group of minimal effort "enthusiasts", leaving only the moneyed class and the wrenchers as the cars are only going to get older and more difficult to keep running. So perfect condition will go to those who have the money and those that need work will be cheap and go to those that know how to work on them. Which also starts an entrepreneurship cycle as those that have the money will seek out those that have the skill to maintain/fix/improve. Everyone else will do what any group that doesn't have the money or skill to participate, they'll watch, they'll go to events, they'll be fans.

        Or it'll be a new generation of EV enthusiasts instead. Software programmers that crack OEM locks to turn up the voltage on the motors or modify the traction control schemes so that individual wheel torque vectoring makes even the most pedestrian of EVs capable of cornering like the ICE supercars of yesteryear. It won't be a visceral, but they'll make their own fun and leave the greasy, loud, ICE cars to those old folks. But between these two timelines there might be a generation of enthusiasts that never materializes due to lack of opportunity and bad timing; too young to rip gears in an ICE car, too old to see an EV golden age.

        8 votes
    4. babypuncher
      (edited )
      Link Parent
      I think a genuine fear hobbyists could have about this is money. ICE cars (and the fuel they run on) are relatively cheap because of economies of scale. In 25 years, when the number of new ICE...

      I think a genuine fear hobbyists could have about this is money.

      ICE cars (and the fuel they run on) are relatively cheap because of economies of scale. In 25 years, when the number of new ICE cars made in a year are in the thousands, they will become dramatically more expensive. They will no longer benefit from the cost savings of automated factories, well optimized supply chains, and fuel distribution networks. Your hobby vehicle will be more or less bespoke, made by hand, and run on fuel that you can't just go around the corner and buy for a few bucks a gallon.

      Now I would argue that no hobby is worth preserving in the face of global catastrophe, but I can see why people would be upset.

      3 votes
    5. NaraVara
      Link Parent
      Yeah it will be interesting to see how the automotive hobbies evolve over time. Part of the problem is stuff just getting too expensive. Like even if you're not banning ICE vehicles, eventually it...

      Yeah it will be interesting to see how the automotive hobbies evolve over time. Part of the problem is stuff just getting too expensive. Like even if you're not banning ICE vehicles, eventually it just gets hard to find petrol and replacement parts or insurance. Like you mentioned with horses, maybe people will just start "stabling" their cars at tracks.

      I also imagine the nature of being a "car person" might change too. Perhaps you'll start to see things shift back towards mechanical parts and user-servicing as the only people left interested are a small niche. Of course, all that also means this becomes an extremely expensive hobby. I don't see young people being able to get into it unless they're starting off with go-karts.

      I don't agree that EVs don't have the "excitement." This is just because most EVs on the market are competing with Accords and Camrys. But performance focused ones are also pretty exciting, you just don't feel that connectedness to the road because of all the electronics playing intermediary. But most ICE cars people are driving also do this. If anything, an EV is probably more exciting than the econoboxes they're replacing.

      2 votes
  2. NaraVara
    Link
    SavageGeese talks about rapid changes in the automotive world as things get more software oriented and electric. A good meditation for car folks on how the hobby is going to change.

    SavageGeese talks about rapid changes in the automotive world as things get more software oriented and electric. A good meditation for car folks on how the hobby is going to change.

    2 votes
  3. [5]
    pumasocks
    Link
    I decided many years ago to be a motorcycle person over a car person. With a high cost of entry and depreciation, it was much cheaper to get into motorcycles.

    I decided many years ago to be a motorcycle person over a car person. With a high cost of entry and depreciation, it was much cheaper to get into motorcycles.

    2 votes
    1. [4]
      Akir
      Link Parent
      I am increasingly impressed by the simplicity and economy of motorcycles. Because they are so small even high-polluting models will have fewer emissions than your average efficiency ICE car. And...

      I am increasingly impressed by the simplicity and economy of motorcycles. Because they are so small even high-polluting models will have fewer emissions than your average efficiency ICE car. And because they are small and relatively free of waste, they are extremely inexpensive when compared to even used cars. And when you look at the “city cruising” style bikes, they are the perfect “just enough” response to the total overkill that is car culture.

      2 votes
      1. [3]
        AugustusFerdinand
        Link Parent
        Do you have a source for that? What I find is the opposite - https://academic.oup.com/tse/article/1/2/164/5631920#191461780 - CO2 is about the same, and motorcycles are better in regards to N2O,...

        Because they are so small even high-polluting models will have fewer emissions than your average efficiency ICE car.

        Do you have a source for that? What I find is the opposite - https://academic.oup.com/tse/article/1/2/164/5631920#191461780 - CO2 is about the same, and motorcycles are better in regards to N2O, but they're many times worse in every other category of emissions.

        4 votes
        1. [2]
          Tardigrade
          Link Parent
          I don't have a source and I imagine it's not what Akir meant but half the total lifespan emissions come from manufacturing and half from fuel for the first 10 to 15 years. I'll see if I can source...

          I don't have a source and I imagine it's not what Akir meant but half the total lifespan emissions come from manufacturing and half from fuel for the first 10 to 15 years. I'll see if I can source that though.

          2 votes
          1. AugustusFerdinand
            Link Parent
            From a total emissions standpoint I'm sure motorcycles are the clear winners. A quick google says the heaviest production bike is, unsurprisingly, a Harley Davidson, CVO Limited model specifically...

            From a total emissions standpoint I'm sure motorcycles are the clear winners. A quick google says the heaviest production bike is, unsurprisingly, a Harley Davidson, CVO Limited model specifically at 428kg/943lbs and so it's clear that total emissions for it would likely be lower considering it weights less than a quarter of the average passenger vehicle. It'd likely take a lot of miles for a motorcycle to hit the total emissions for a car.

            That said, manufacturing is usually far from cities where air quality is lowest and (note: this is from 2008 so I hope it's improved since then) motorcycles make up "1% of vehicle miles traveled, yet they account for 10% of passenger vehicles’ smog-forming emissions".

            I did find this when looking for motorcycle manufacturing emissions, but haven't dug into the eiolca link to confirm the statement made on that page.

            2 votes