I've had a thought bouncing in my head today and I want to give it some air and let you folks at it to see where it takes on water.

The theory is that there's a contradiction, or misalignment maybe, between how most people feel about the philosophical concept of free will and how time travel and time loops are portrayed in media. Here's the premises I've landed on to arrive at that:

(1) The vast majority of people believe in some form of free will. (Fairly non contentious, I hope. A lot of resources back this up.)

(2) For free will to exist, if a person is repeatedly prompted to make some sort of decision under the exact same circumstances (time, place, people, etc) there must be a non-zero amount of times that they will arrive at a decision different from their initial one. For example... lets suppose you walk into the room and ask me what I want for dinner. I chew on some options for a moment then decide "chicken and rice". Then my memory is wiped and we repeat this over and over. After a few repeats of this I end up settling on a steak burrito instead. This is the only way free will could work imo because the opposite result, if given the same input you always arrive at the same output, is no different than determinism. Plus it implies, much like the time loop/travel media show, that from the start of the day we can know exactly where we will end up at the end if nothing is changed- which leaves no wiggle room for free will.

(3) The people in time travel / time loop media who are not your faithful protagonist or otherwise aware of the time based shenanigans going on always do the exact same thing every time (at least, in the ones I've seen). It's only the ones who are aware of how events have already unfolded who can make new decisions, everyone and everything else plays out the same.

Thus, virtually all media portray time travel/loops in a way that doesn't jive with how the vast majority of people perceive free will.

So, what do you think- Do you agree with the conclusion? Do you disagree on the definition of free will? Should I have gone with my alternate title? (12 Deterministic Monkeys starring Bruce Free Willis)

Inspired by @Fiachra's question in this post, I wanted to asked the broader tildes community: What are some of your favourite historic anecdotes or stories? The original question is more narrow, but I'm honestly curious to hear any fun or intriguing ones from any period of history.

Re-posting what I responded there:
OH man, time to share my favourite example of how one person being an asshole changed history: Shah Muhammad II of Khwarazm. The Khwarazmian Empire was roughly the Persian/Iranian Empire from 1077–1231. A massive, rich, culturally leading Empire at the centre of the Silk Road.

Genghis Khan, seeking to increase trade in preparation for his invasion of China, sent envoys to Khwarazm to ask to open trade. The Shah, in his supreme arrogance, decided these smelly Mongols insulted him by their very presence, and had them executed. Genghis, who very famously established the Imperial Mongol tradition of absolute protection for envoys, was furious. And yet, focused on his goal, he sent a SECOND group of envoys to demand an explanation and try to smooth things over. And the Shah executed them too. This pissed Genghis and his leadership off so much they paused the invasion of China, and launched a punitive expedition to conquer Persia/Khwarazm. I want to stress again that the records we have make it clear that the Mongols at this point had no interest in going further West. They were very focused on achieving victory over their arch-nemeses in China.

Within two years the entire Empire had fallen, the Shah was dead, and its fabulously rich cities torched and massacred. Following this, the Mongols realized they could continue to press on and ended up invading the rest of the Islamic world, famously including the destruction of Baghdad, the world's finest city of learning and culture at that point. The fall of Baghdad is widely considered to be the end of the Islamic Golden Age. Estimates of deaths in the Islamic World vary widely, but it is undeniable that many of the most populous and prosperous cities from the Mediterranean to the Caspian Sea were totally destroyed and depopulated. All because one jackass decided he couldn't be bothered to take some smelly Mongols seriously.

Also, I have no idea what to tag this, sorry lol.