This article was penned by the democratically elected, deposed president of Niger Mohamed Bazoum. I'd urge people to read it. Niger was a (relative) beacon in the Sahel region for stability and...
This article was penned by the democratically elected, deposed president of Niger Mohamed Bazoum. I'd urge people to read it. Niger was a (relative) beacon in the Sahel region for stability and civil society rights — and this is all at risk of being undone.
This is terrible. African politics seem to be more opaque and foreign to the west than situations that crop up in places like the Balkans, SEA, or Ukraine, but it is no less important to support...
This is terrible. African politics seem to be more opaque and foreign to the west than situations that crop up in places like the Balkans, SEA, or Ukraine, but it is no less important to support an independent democracy in peril.
I am not optimistic about the situation, but I am hopeful that things will turn around. Too many of us view African republics as either a lost cause or an opportunity to hedge.
They're doing far better than Canada on that front. Even at our most cynical, even if we come into this news with the worst prejudice against African nations, the president is right that Russia's...
022 was Niger’s first year without a single school day lost to strikes from teachers or students. Workers did not go on strike in any major sector, and my administration signed landmark agreements with unions to create a safer and more stable working environment across the nation.
They're doing far better than Canada on that front.
Even at our most cynical, even if we come into this news with the worst prejudice against African nations, the president is right that Russia's Wagner is being this, and the it won't be good for the US and the West in the longer term if they allow Niger to fall into Russian/Wagner/terrorist hands.
That Boko Haram was kept out of Niger for several years is amazing success that must be supported. They're the horrible people who kidnap young girls and turn them into sex slaves and terrorist baby making machines, and young boys into soldiers.
"What can I do though": share this news when you have small talk. If I hear people talk about African nations or war or Russia and Ukraine or about the US military complex or democracy or social unrest etc, I will try to mention Niger in a favorable light and that I support peacekeeping military actions to help a budding democratically elected gov't.
Ultimately I don't think awareness is really going to play a factor in this at all. There's almost no way Western countries intervene directly, no matter how clear cut the sides are you'll get...
Ultimately I don't think awareness is really going to play a factor in this at all. There's almost no way Western countries intervene directly, no matter how clear cut the sides are you'll get people calling them colonialists. While completely ignoring what Russia is doing in the region.
It doesn't make sense, but it will happen regardless (see Tobi in this thread), and that'll be too damaging politically. The French knew about this in advance but did nothing for political reasons, and I doubt anyone else is going to be willing to take that risk either.
If anything is able to go help the situation I think it will have to be the reactions on the neighboring countries and the Nigerians (is there a separate word for people from Niger vs Nigeria?) themselves.
But I guess we'll find out soon enough, the deadline from the other African countries for the coup to end is only 8 hours away
Yes, the demonyms are Nigerien and Nigerian respectively :-). I completely agree. It has to be ECOWAS, and even Bola Tinubu of Nigeria (who is a staunch pro-democrat) is being attacked as a...
If anything is able to go help the situation I think it will have to be the reactions on the neighboring countries and the Nigerians (is there a separate word for people from Niger vs Nigeria?) themselves.
Yes, the demonyms are Nigerien and Nigerian respectively :-). I completely agree. It has to be ECOWAS, and even Bola Tinubu of Nigeria (who is a staunch pro-democrat) is being attacked as a 'French stooge' by the illegitimate military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso, despite France being desperate to avoid any association with military intervention to topple the provisional military government.
They are Nigeriens. It seems like it would be relatively easy for the West to intervene in some way given the French and American military bases. But I'm not going to pretend to be informed enough...
They are Nigeriens. It seems like it would be relatively easy for the West to intervene in some way given the French and American military bases. But I'm not going to pretend to be informed enough to have an opinion on if that should be done. Given that the junta is requesting help from Wagner, which has already committed several war crimes in Africa, I would suspect that supporting ECOWAS somehow may be the best option but I can't possibly guess at the second or third order effects of doing that, much less the long-term effects.
Well, there's a difference between being militarily able to intervene and being politically able to intervene. America and even France are probably both capable of sending an expeditionary force...
Exemplary
Well, there's a difference between being militarily able to intervene and being politically able to intervene. America and even France are probably both capable of sending an expeditionary force to Niger and securing the country, handing power back over to the President or whoever is next in the line of succession if the rebels kill him, and then securing the country against rebels for at least the short term.
Just a quick look at America's past record and current capabilities, compared with Niger's military, should make this an incredibly uncontroversial statement.
However, I don't think it would win Joe Biden many votes if he were to invade a random African country a year before the election. Yes, maybe we're going in to restore the democratically elected leader and stop Russian backed rebels from destroying a democracy, but ultimately the headlines would just be 'Joe Biden invades Africa' and that would not go over well. Presidents and Congress can get some unpopular policies through without raising much outcry, but starting a war is much too high profile. If Congress would even let Biden invade in the first place, and the optics of that would be nearly as bad.
I don't know a huge amount about French politics, but Macron is obviously not very popular to begin with and the absolute last thing it looks like he needs is more riots. Again he knew about this in advance, but chose to do nothing because he thought it would be unpopular to intervene.
The French, Americans, and everyone else in the west are just tired of starting wars in far off lands and so even if this one is objectively worth fighting, we aren't going to fight it. I mean you can just look at this thread, you've now got two people saying they support the coup because 'France bad'. Apparently Russian backed military juntas must be good then, if they're opposed to France.
ECOWAS could choose to fight, and if they did we'd almost certainly give them some support, maybe even including air strikes, but they don't seem like they want to start a war, so then that limits our options to finding ways to persuade the militaries in the remaining African democracies to not overthrow their leadership.
Edit: As for that last bit, I've seen contradictory news articles about whether or not ECOWAS plans to attack if their deadline is not met. I'll have to try to find some exact quotes from the leaders about what they're planning, for now I'm not entirely sure.
Yeah, I would hope no one is suggesting actually sending troops to Niger to do anything other than secure our own bases, and I'm not sure anyone even intends to do that.
Yeah, I would hope no one is suggesting actually sending troops to Niger to do anything other than secure our own bases, and I'm not sure anyone even intends to do that.
Well, the Africans nations are definitely suggesting sending in their troops, and if they actually do that I wouldn't be too surprised if they had western air cover.
Well, the Africans nations are definitely suggesting sending in their troops, and if they actually do that I wouldn't be too surprised if they had western air cover.
I mean, traditionally sending in air support would be considered sending in troops. Its not quite the same thing, especially since the technology difference would mean our pilots would see about...
I mean, traditionally sending in air support would be considered sending in troops. Its not quite the same thing, especially since the technology difference would mean our pilots would see about as much risk as they would during a training exercise, but that's still not a step that anyone would take lightly.
It's going to be hard to drum up support for what seems like a return to Cold War geopolitical tactics. This seems all too familiar to Southeast Asia or 1980's Afghanistan. The timing of this also...
There's almost no way Western countries intervene directly, no matter how clear cut the sides are you'll get people calling them colonialists. While completely ignoring what Russia is doing in the region.
It's going to be hard to drum up support for what seems like a return to Cold War geopolitical tactics. This seems all too familiar to Southeast Asia or 1980's Afghanistan.
The timing of this also suggests to me that it might be concession of the Coup attempt. Splitting focus from what is going on in Ukraine would a distraction and would redirect attention and resources. PMC Wagner might also be using this to negotiate their position with Putin.
As far as West African nations go, Niger is the one to intervene in, as it has one of the largest uranium reserves in the world, and is important to Western (and particularly French) energy security.
As far as West African nations go, Niger is the one to intervene in, as it has one of the largest uranium reserves in the world, and is important to Western (and particularly French) energy security.
Pod Save the World did a podcast on the situation in Niger and the potential powder keg the region might turn into if ECOWAS decides to intervene. I found it very illuminating since both of the...
Pod Save the World did a podcast on the situation in Niger and the potential powder keg the region might turn into if ECOWAS decides to intervene. I found it very illuminating since both of the hosts were on the National Security Council during the Obama years.
Tommy and Ben talk about a coup in Niger, progress on the Ukrainian counteroffensive, drone attacks on Moscow, Yevgeny Prigozhin attends a summit of African leaders in Russia, prospects for a US-Saudi Arabia-Israel diplomatic deal, the eroding democratic process in Thailand, and an ISIS attack in Pakistan. They also discuss how to inspire action on climate change. Then Tommy talks to Ambassador-At-Large For Global Criminal Justice Beth Van Schaack about prosecuting Russian war crimes.
(Noise post, please ignore): @mycketforvirrad, how comes this has been moved from ~news? The coup in Niger is a current event, and the president of Niger penning an article is itself news, in my...
(Noise post, please ignore): @mycketforvirrad, how comes this has been moved from ~news? The coup in Niger is a current event, and the president of Niger penning an article is itself news, in my view. Indeed, the sidebar of ~news states 'All the world's current events, including politics as well as analysis or opinion pieces' - so I thought it was a suitable board to post in.
We have been informally placing all opinion pieces from broadsheet newspapers into ~misc for a couple of years now, in order to keep ~news as dedicated to factual news reporting as possible. The...
We have been informally placing all opinion pieces from broadsheet newspapers into ~misc for a couple of years now, in order to keep ~news as dedicated to factual news reporting as possible. The exception to this has been opinion pieces surrounding the journalism tag.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm a bit sceptical about the usefulness of this approach in this instance, but I defer to your better judgement in keeping the boards tidy.
Thanks for the explanation. I'm a bit sceptical about the usefulness of this approach in this instance, but I defer to your better judgement in keeping the boards tidy.
Nothing is ever set in stone here on Tildes, so approaches to content moderation may (and do) change as the community decides on different approaches organically. I think this current approach...
Nothing is ever set in stone here on Tildes, so approaches to content moderation may (and do) change as the community decides on different approaches organically.
I think this current approach came about during one of the US election cycles where opinion and news became quite blurry.
No worries. Always happy to explain what I'm up to behind the scenes though, for anyone who wants to know or is curious.
From what i've seen citizens seem to be supportive of the coup and i like the junta's stance against France. We will see how this turns out, but I still have hope that this can improve their...
From what i've seen citizens seem to be supportive of the coup and i like the junta's stance against France. We will see how this turns out, but I still have hope that this can improve their situation despite the obvious concerns with a government like this
Anti-coup protests are banned and a few thousand people turned out for a pro-coup rally in a city of 1.4 million (Niamey). You take that to mean that the citizenry is in favour of the coup, when...
From what i've seen citizens seem to be supportive of the coup
Anti-coup protests are banned and a few thousand people turned out for a pro-coup rally in a city of 1.4 million (Niamey). You take that to mean that the citizenry is in favour of the coup, when men with arms are silencing dissenters?
Not to mention supporting the junta's 'stance against France'. The democratically elected government of Niger should be responsible for the country's foreign policy, not Russian mercenaries and army men. Niger's existing security is largely due to foreign aid from various sources, not merely French boots on the ground. If there's any neocolonialism being practiced on the African continent right now, it's under the Russian flag.
I just can't take you seriously after saying that.. Russia is definitely trying to get in on the action but the west and especially France has been doing this for decades
If there's any neocolonialism being practiced on the African continent right now, it's under the Russian flag.
I just can't take you seriously after saying that.. Russia is definitely trying to get in on the action but the west and especially France has been doing this for decades
You're definitely right that OP is off base by dismissing French colonialism but I think it's right to point out that OP is right that the government as elected should be responsible. Looking at...
Russia is definitely trying to get in on the action but the west and especially France has been doing this for decades
You're definitely right that OP is off base by dismissing French colonialism but I think it's right to point out that OP is right that the government as elected should be responsible. Looking at what has been happening to the countries in the Sahel over the last decade, successivley falling states that end up seeking security agreements with Wagner, it's not hard to imagine what forces may be behind what's going on in Niger right now. I am in no way pro-French neocolonialism but I am much more anti-Russian neocolonialism.
Niger was not a state threatened by catastrophic failure or systemic abuses and therefore I believe he citizens should exercise their will through voting and that the rightful government put back in power
I was initially under the belief that maybe the coup was the better outcome for Niger, as I believed that Niger was still being exploited by France and Europe under Neocolonialism. Though your...
I was initially under the belief that maybe the coup was the better outcome for Niger, as I believed that Niger was still being exploited by France and Europe under Neocolonialism.
Though your comments on Russia and Wagner was a good point that I had forgotten and they were somewhat stable before all of this.
Hesitant on this. Been watching First Thought's videos on this over the last week and I'm not certain I'd believe that the existing government was much of a good one. If I'm honest, I end up...
Hesitant on this. Been watching First Thought's videos on this over the last week and I'm not certain I'd believe that the existing government was much of a good one. If I'm honest, I end up wondering if this is just France and other colonial powers being upset that they may lose another puppet state in Africa.
Am I certain of this? Absolutely not. But the West has a gigantic propaganda arm, and France has a history of both colonialism and neocolonialism alike that leaves me with a lot of doubt, here.
Doubts about the former government and French interference is healthy, French neocolonialism is no secret or no joke, but doubt needs to be exercised on the other side of the equation as well....
Doubts about the former government and French interference is healthy, French neocolonialism is no secret or no joke, but doubt needs to be exercised on the other side of the equation as well. Russia, through Wagner proxy, has a very long record of interference in the Sahel and a huge interest in displacing Western influence in the region. When weighing doubts I think that I will give more charity to democratically elected governments than to armed coups
This is a fair take, generally speaking. I'm just left wondering along two primary lines: First, how sure are we that Russia is actually involved? That country has become something of a bogeyman...
This is a fair take, generally speaking. I'm just left wondering along two primary lines: First, how sure are we that Russia is actually involved? That country has become something of a bogeyman as of late, which while understandable – their gov't has been decidedly horrible for quite some time, now – still leaves me concerned as to whether or not they are actually involved in this, or merely being used as a convenient scapegoat given that most people already hate them. Second: How democratic was the election? Western powers have meddled before, so I don't feel safe in assuming such a thing hasn't happened here.
To be absolutely clear, I have no evidence whatsoever that either of these concerns hold water at all. I've just seen the U.S. and France do too many things to feel comfortable taking their side so quickly.
I can't speak to the claims of Russian interference, as information coming in is conflicting. Prigozhin is congratulating the leaders of the coup, Russia denounced the coup, and one Ukrainian...
I can't speak to the claims of Russian interference, as information coming in is conflicting. Prigozhin is congratulating the leaders of the coup, Russia denounced the coup, and one Ukrainian leader claimed that Russia was behind the coup, so we'll have to see.
Having lightly (meaning correct me if I'm wrong) followed the 2020/2021 Nigerien election, I haven't heard any criticism as to the fairness or validity of the election from outside observers. Directly following the election though, the losing candidate claimed election fraud, demanded a recount, and his supporters protested/rioted in a few cities. There was a small coup attempt by some members of the military, thought it was put down within a few days. A few people were killed in the protest/riots, and internet access was restricted for about a week.
Some extra reading: Freedom House rates Niger's previous election 3/4. For context, this is the same score the last US election received.
Edit: small disclaimer to preempt a few comments: yes, I am aware of Freedom House’s biases, but the information in the section about the 2020/2021 election specifically generally reflects what I’ve read about it elsewhere, which is why I linked it.
I hope this doesn't come off as rude but your argument stinks of "I'm just asking questions," a tactic sometimes used by dubious actors to sow doubt without actually backing up any of their...
I hope this doesn't come off as rude but your argument stinks of "I'm just asking questions," a tactic sometimes used by dubious actors to sow doubt without actually backing up any of their claims. There is zero evidence from election monitoring groups of medling, the Nigeran economy was growing faster than any western economy in the last year, social services had been improving, the security situation in the north had been demonstratably improving. Counter that with the fact that several Sahel countries, to include neighbors Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad, all suffered military coups who quickly welcomed Wagner into their countries. Nothing I've said proves anything but at least it's backed up with facts and not questions, facts which I think make it easy for me to conclude the rightful government should be reinstated
Believe me, I'm well aware of that phenomenon, and I'm absolutely not trying to do that. My comments are borne of my own doubt, and while I obviously wouldn't oppose others sharing it, I'm posting...
Believe me, I'm well aware of that phenomenon, and I'm absolutely not trying to do that. My comments are borne of my own doubt, and while I obviously wouldn't oppose others sharing it, I'm posting primarily to express my own feelings rather than to change other's to match.
Incidentally, I've talked about some of what you mention in a different comment I made elsewhere here on this matter, but to summarize it simply comes down to matter of how solid the evidence is. I'm not (at present, at least) convinced that any of it is exactly damning, and so I'm withholding judgement mainly due to the extremely poor history Western countries have in Africa.
I'm a bit perplexed by this, to be honest. Were the citizens rioting before the junta or were riots being forcefully put down before it? Were there doubts about the fairness of their elections...
I'm a bit perplexed by this, to be honest.
Were the citizens rioting before the junta or were riots being forcefully put down before it? Were there doubts about the fairness of their elections before this?
TBH, I thought Niger had been relatively stable. President Bazoum had laid out his claims of the ways he feels his government has made things better. No major Boko Harem attacks, he claims that refugees are returning to the point that USAID is switching from humanitarian aid to building initiatives, that their per capita growth rate tripled to 7.4% last year and that 2022 was the first year with no strikes or lost school days.
Do you have any information that seriously refutes these accomplishments or claims? They seem like they would be easily provable or disprovable claims.
I'm not understanding the logic of some of the posts in this thread where people fail to mention or completely ignore Russia doing the thing that makes people say "France bad". Unless there was some uproar over the elections in Niger then the people of the country made their pick. I don't see how overthrowing that makes the junta "good guys" here..
I'll be honest with you: For most of these questions, I don't have an answer. I don't follow Niger's political climate effectively at all. I don't know how it's been doing, and I know very little...
I'll be honest with you: For most of these questions, I don't have an answer.
I don't follow Niger's political climate effectively at all. I don't know how it's been doing, and I know very little about how it's doing now. I can't counter the claims made by Bazoum, and I'm not certain how the populace in general feels about what's going on.
My initial comment is motivated moreso by concern and skepticism than it is about me in any way "knowing better" what's going on. I simply don't value Bazoum's claims regarding his success much, as he would have (at least to me) an obvious conflict of interest. He's obviously not going to tell us he did an awful job and that the coup is good, so how much can I trust his word? Indeed, his word is most of all the article provides to go off of. I don't really care what Antony Blinken has to say, and I find GDP to be a poor and reductive metric for a country's success.
As for Russia, while I would absolutely condemn their involvement in this, I'm simply not certain of it yet. So far, the only thing I'm aware of that indicates their having a connection to this is that Mali and Burkina Faso support this coup, and that they in turn have connections to Russia. This is not entirely without merit, but it still seems too distant a connection to me to be seen as proof.
All of this however still amounts to speculation and conjecture on my part. I don't actually know any of these claims are false, and I could easily be wrong here. I just don't want to draw a conclusion so soon when I know how much incentive I feel there is for France et al. to lie.
Disclaimer: I'm from Nigeria, not Niger, albeit my hometown is just across the border, so I have a personal stake in this. This may colour my statements with bias. That said, I can't help but...
Exemplary
Disclaimer: I'm from Nigeria, not Niger, albeit my hometown is just across the border, so I have a personal stake in this. This may colour my statements with bias.
That said, I can't help but lament what's going on over there now. By all indications Bazoum was doing quite well (the corruption and graft were real, but not new). My brother was in Zinder a few months ago (there's a girl he wants to marry from there) and he couldn't be more complementary of the state of things.
When the coup first happened I actually suspected it was France backed. A while ago Bazoum was on BBC Hausa talking about reducing Nigerien reliance on the French monetary system and policy, and dictating Niger's future from Niamey, not Paris. Now everything seems much murkier.
This article was penned by the democratically elected, deposed president of Niger Mohamed Bazoum. I'd urge people to read it. Niger was a (relative) beacon in the Sahel region for stability and civil society rights — and this is all at risk of being undone.
This is terrible. African politics seem to be more opaque and foreign to the west than situations that crop up in places like the Balkans, SEA, or Ukraine, but it is no less important to support an independent democracy in peril.
I am not optimistic about the situation, but I am hopeful that things will turn around. Too many of us view African republics as either a lost cause or an opportunity to hedge.
They're doing far better than Canada on that front.
Even at our most cynical, even if we come into this news with the worst prejudice against African nations, the president is right that Russia's Wagner is being this, and the it won't be good for the US and the West in the longer term if they allow Niger to fall into Russian/Wagner/terrorist hands.
That Boko Haram was kept out of Niger for several years is amazing success that must be supported. They're the horrible people who kidnap young girls and turn them into sex slaves and terrorist baby making machines, and young boys into soldiers.
"What can I do though": share this news when you have small talk. If I hear people talk about African nations or war or Russia and Ukraine or about the US military complex or democracy or social unrest etc, I will try to mention Niger in a favorable light and that I support peacekeeping military actions to help a budding democratically elected gov't.
Ultimately I don't think awareness is really going to play a factor in this at all. There's almost no way Western countries intervene directly, no matter how clear cut the sides are you'll get people calling them colonialists. While completely ignoring what Russia is doing in the region.
It doesn't make sense, but it will happen regardless (see Tobi in this thread), and that'll be too damaging politically. The French knew about this in advance but did nothing for political reasons, and I doubt anyone else is going to be willing to take that risk either.
If anything is able to go help the situation I think it will have to be the reactions on the neighboring countries and the Nigerians (is there a separate word for people from Niger vs Nigeria?) themselves.
But I guess we'll find out soon enough, the deadline from the other African countries for the coup to end is only 8 hours away
Yes, the demonyms are Nigerien and Nigerian respectively :-). I completely agree. It has to be ECOWAS, and even Bola Tinubu of Nigeria (who is a staunch pro-democrat) is being attacked as a 'French stooge' by the illegitimate military juntas in Mali and Burkina Faso, despite France being desperate to avoid any association with military intervention to topple the provisional military government.
They are Nigeriens. It seems like it would be relatively easy for the West to intervene in some way given the French and American military bases. But I'm not going to pretend to be informed enough to have an opinion on if that should be done. Given that the junta is requesting help from Wagner, which has already committed several war crimes in Africa, I would suspect that supporting ECOWAS somehow may be the best option but I can't possibly guess at the second or third order effects of doing that, much less the long-term effects.
Well, there's a difference between being militarily able to intervene and being politically able to intervene. America and even France are probably both capable of sending an expeditionary force to Niger and securing the country, handing power back over to the President or whoever is next in the line of succession if the rebels kill him, and then securing the country against rebels for at least the short term.
Just a quick look at America's past record and current capabilities, compared with Niger's military, should make this an incredibly uncontroversial statement.
However, I don't think it would win Joe Biden many votes if he were to invade a random African country a year before the election. Yes, maybe we're going in to restore the democratically elected leader and stop Russian backed rebels from destroying a democracy, but ultimately the headlines would just be 'Joe Biden invades Africa' and that would not go over well. Presidents and Congress can get some unpopular policies through without raising much outcry, but starting a war is much too high profile. If Congress would even let Biden invade in the first place, and the optics of that would be nearly as bad.
I don't know a huge amount about French politics, but Macron is obviously not very popular to begin with and the absolute last thing it looks like he needs is more riots. Again he knew about this in advance, but chose to do nothing because he thought it would be unpopular to intervene.
The French, Americans, and everyone else in the west are just tired of starting wars in far off lands and so even if this one is objectively worth fighting, we aren't going to fight it. I mean you can just look at this thread, you've now got two people saying they support the coup because 'France bad'. Apparently Russian backed military juntas must be good then, if they're opposed to France.
ECOWAS could choose to fight, and if they did we'd almost certainly give them some support, maybe even including air strikes, but they don't seem like they want to start a war, so then that limits our options to finding ways to persuade the militaries in the remaining African democracies to not overthrow their leadership.
Edit: As for that last bit, I've seen contradictory news articles about whether or not ECOWAS plans to attack if their deadline is not met. I'll have to try to find some exact quotes from the leaders about what they're planning, for now I'm not entirely sure.
Yeah, I would hope no one is suggesting actually sending troops to Niger to do anything other than secure our own bases, and I'm not sure anyone even intends to do that.
Well, the Africans nations are definitely suggesting sending in their troops, and if they actually do that I wouldn't be too surprised if they had western air cover.
Yes, I'm sorry, I meant Western countries sending troops.
I mean, traditionally sending in air support would be considered sending in troops. Its not quite the same thing, especially since the technology difference would mean our pilots would see about as much risk as they would during a training exercise, but that's still not a step that anyone would take lightly.
It's going to be hard to drum up support for what seems like a return to Cold War geopolitical tactics. This seems all too familiar to Southeast Asia or 1980's Afghanistan.
The timing of this also suggests to me that it might be concession of the Coup attempt. Splitting focus from what is going on in Ukraine would a distraction and would redirect attention and resources. PMC Wagner might also be using this to negotiate their position with Putin.
As far as West African nations go, Niger is the one to intervene in, as it has one of the largest uranium reserves in the world, and is important to Western (and particularly French) energy security.
Pod Save the World did a podcast on the situation in Niger and the potential powder keg the region might turn into if ECOWAS decides to intervene. I found it very illuminating since both of the hosts were on the National Security Council during the Obama years.
(Noise post, please ignore): @mycketforvirrad, how comes this has been moved from ~news? The coup in Niger is a current event, and the president of Niger penning an article is itself news, in my view. Indeed, the sidebar of ~news states 'All the world's current events, including politics as well as analysis or opinion pieces' - so I thought it was a suitable board to post in.
We have been informally placing all opinion pieces from broadsheet newspapers into ~misc for a couple of years now, in order to keep ~news as dedicated to factual news reporting as possible. The exception to this has been opinion pieces surrounding the
journalismtag.Thanks for the explanation. I'm a bit sceptical about the usefulness of this approach in this instance, but I defer to your better judgement in keeping the boards tidy.
Nothing is ever set in stone here on Tildes, so approaches to content moderation may (and do) change as the community decides on different approaches organically.
I think this current approach came about during one of the US election cycles where opinion and news became quite blurry.
No worries. Always happy to explain what I'm up to behind the scenes though, for anyone who wants to know or is curious.
From what i've seen citizens seem to be supportive of the coup and i like the junta's stance against France. We will see how this turns out, but I still have hope that this can improve their situation despite the obvious concerns with a government like this
Anti-coup protests are banned and a few thousand people turned out for a pro-coup rally in a city of 1.4 million (Niamey). You take that to mean that the citizenry is in favour of the coup, when men with arms are silencing dissenters?
Not to mention supporting the junta's 'stance against France'. The democratically elected government of Niger should be responsible for the country's foreign policy, not Russian mercenaries and army men. Niger's existing security is largely due to foreign aid from various sources, not merely French boots on the ground. If there's any neocolonialism being practiced on the African continent right now, it's under the Russian flag.
I just can't take you seriously after saying that.. Russia is definitely trying to get in on the action but the west and especially France has been doing this for decades
You're definitely right that OP is off base by dismissing French colonialism but I think it's right to point out that OP is right that the government as elected should be responsible. Looking at what has been happening to the countries in the Sahel over the last decade, successivley falling states that end up seeking security agreements with Wagner, it's not hard to imagine what forces may be behind what's going on in Niger right now. I am in no way pro-French neocolonialism but I am much more anti-Russian neocolonialism.
Niger was not a state threatened by catastrophic failure or systemic abuses and therefore I believe he citizens should exercise their will through voting and that the rightful government put back in power
I was initially under the belief that maybe the coup was the better outcome for Niger, as I believed that Niger was still being exploited by France and Europe under Neocolonialism.
Though your comments on Russia and Wagner was a good point that I had forgotten and they were somewhat stable before all of this.
Hesitant on this. Been watching First Thought's videos on this over the last week and I'm not certain I'd believe that the existing government was much of a good one. If I'm honest, I end up wondering if this is just France and other colonial powers being upset that they may lose another puppet state in Africa.
Am I certain of this? Absolutely not. But the West has a gigantic propaganda arm, and France has a history of both colonialism and neocolonialism alike that leaves me with a lot of doubt, here.
Doubts about the former government and French interference is healthy, French neocolonialism is no secret or no joke, but doubt needs to be exercised on the other side of the equation as well. Russia, through Wagner proxy, has a very long record of interference in the Sahel and a huge interest in displacing Western influence in the region. When weighing doubts I think that I will give more charity to democratically elected governments than to armed coups
This is a fair take, generally speaking. I'm just left wondering along two primary lines: First, how sure are we that Russia is actually involved? That country has become something of a bogeyman as of late, which while understandable – their gov't has been decidedly horrible for quite some time, now – still leaves me concerned as to whether or not they are actually involved in this, or merely being used as a convenient scapegoat given that most people already hate them. Second: How democratic was the election? Western powers have meddled before, so I don't feel safe in assuming such a thing hasn't happened here.
To be absolutely clear, I have no evidence whatsoever that either of these concerns hold water at all. I've just seen the U.S. and France do too many things to feel comfortable taking their side so quickly.
I can't speak to the claims of Russian interference, as information coming in is conflicting. Prigozhin is congratulating the leaders of the coup, Russia denounced the coup, and one Ukrainian leader claimed that Russia was behind the coup, so we'll have to see.
Having lightly (meaning correct me if I'm wrong) followed the 2020/2021 Nigerien election, I haven't heard any criticism as to the fairness or validity of the election from outside observers. Directly following the election though, the losing candidate claimed election fraud, demanded a recount, and his supporters protested/rioted in a few cities. There was a small coup attempt by some members of the military, thought it was put down within a few days. A few people were killed in the protest/riots, and internet access was restricted for about a week.
Some extra reading: Freedom House rates Niger's previous election 3/4. For context, this is the same score the last US election received.
Edit: small disclaimer to preempt a few comments: yes, I am aware of Freedom House’s biases, but the information in the section about the 2020/2021 election specifically generally reflects what I’ve read about it elsewhere, which is why I linked it.
I hope this doesn't come off as rude but your argument stinks of "I'm just asking questions," a tactic sometimes used by dubious actors to sow doubt without actually backing up any of their claims. There is zero evidence from election monitoring groups of medling, the Nigeran economy was growing faster than any western economy in the last year, social services had been improving, the security situation in the north had been demonstratably improving. Counter that with the fact that several Sahel countries, to include neighbors Mali, Burkina Faso, and Chad, all suffered military coups who quickly welcomed Wagner into their countries. Nothing I've said proves anything but at least it's backed up with facts and not questions, facts which I think make it easy for me to conclude the rightful government should be reinstated
Believe me, I'm well aware of that phenomenon, and I'm absolutely not trying to do that. My comments are borne of my own doubt, and while I obviously wouldn't oppose others sharing it, I'm posting primarily to express my own feelings rather than to change other's to match.
Incidentally, I've talked about some of what you mention in a different comment I made elsewhere here on this matter, but to summarize it simply comes down to matter of how solid the evidence is. I'm not (at present, at least) convinced that any of it is exactly damning, and so I'm withholding judgement mainly due to the extremely poor history Western countries have in Africa.
I'm a bit perplexed by this, to be honest.
Were the citizens rioting before the junta or were riots being forcefully put down before it? Were there doubts about the fairness of their elections before this?
TBH, I thought Niger had been relatively stable. President Bazoum had laid out his claims of the ways he feels his government has made things better. No major Boko Harem attacks, he claims that refugees are returning to the point that USAID is switching from humanitarian aid to building initiatives, that their per capita growth rate tripled to 7.4% last year and that 2022 was the first year with no strikes or lost school days.
Do you have any information that seriously refutes these accomplishments or claims? They seem like they would be easily provable or disprovable claims.
I'm not understanding the logic of some of the posts in this thread where people fail to mention or completely ignore Russia doing the thing that makes people say "France bad". Unless there was some uproar over the elections in Niger then the people of the country made their pick. I don't see how overthrowing that makes the junta "good guys" here..
I'll be honest with you: For most of these questions, I don't have an answer.
I don't follow Niger's political climate effectively at all. I don't know how it's been doing, and I know very little about how it's doing now. I can't counter the claims made by Bazoum, and I'm not certain how the populace in general feels about what's going on.
My initial comment is motivated moreso by concern and skepticism than it is about me in any way "knowing better" what's going on. I simply don't value Bazoum's claims regarding his success much, as he would have (at least to me) an obvious conflict of interest. He's obviously not going to tell us he did an awful job and that the coup is good, so how much can I trust his word? Indeed, his word is most of all the article provides to go off of. I don't really care what Antony Blinken has to say, and I find GDP to be a poor and reductive metric for a country's success.
As for Russia, while I would absolutely condemn their involvement in this, I'm simply not certain of it yet. So far, the only thing I'm aware of that indicates their having a connection to this is that Mali and Burkina Faso support this coup, and that they in turn have connections to Russia. This is not entirely without merit, but it still seems too distant a connection to me to be seen as proof.
All of this however still amounts to speculation and conjecture on my part. I don't actually know any of these claims are false, and I could easily be wrong here. I just don't want to draw a conclusion so soon when I know how much incentive I feel there is for France et al. to lie.
Disclaimer: I'm from Nigeria, not Niger, albeit my hometown is just across the border, so I have a personal stake in this. This may colour my statements with bias.
That said, I can't help but lament what's going on over there now. By all indications Bazoum was doing quite well (the corruption and graft were real, but not new). My brother was in Zinder a few months ago (there's a girl he wants to marry from there) and he couldn't be more complementary of the state of things.
When the coup first happened I actually suspected it was France backed. A while ago Bazoum was on BBC Hausa talking about reducing Nigerien reliance on the French monetary system and policy, and dictating Niger's future from Niamey, not Paris. Now everything seems much murkier.